Saratoga Race Course Week #3 discussion.......

Play2win

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From Nyra site:





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Next weekend's graded stakes action kicks off with the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] running of the Grade 2, $200,000 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Heading the field is Live Oak Plantation's World Approval, who enters the race off a neck victory in the Grade 3 American Derby at Arlington Park for trainer Mark Casse. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is expected to run the duo of A Lot, most recently second in the Manila at Belmont Park, and Courtier, who is coming off a six-month layoff following a second-place finish in the Kitten's Joy at Gulfstream Park. Likely also are Sailthehighseas, making his stakes debut, and Vision Perfect, winner of the Woodhaven in April in his lone 2015 start.Gorgeous Bird is questionable.

A pair of prestigious Grade 1 stakes anchors Saturday's card in the 90[SUP]th[/SUP]running of the $500,000 Longines Test for 3-year-old fillies and the 88[SUP]th[/SUP]edition of the $1.25 million Whitney, a "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Likely for the seven-furlong Test is Take Charge Brandi, last year's juvenile filly champion who will be seeking her fifth straight victory. Trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, the Willis Horton color-bearer will be making her first start since January, when she won the Martha Washington at Oaklawn Park. As a 2-year-old at Saratoga, Take Charge Brandi finished second in the Grade 3 Schuylerville and fifth in the Grade 2 Adirondack. Other probables include Angela Renee, second and third last year in the Adirondack and Grade 1 Spinaway, respectively; By the Moon, second to Curalina in the Grade 1 Acorn last time out; Jersey Girl winner Cavorting;Irish Jasper, winner of three straight stakes including the Grade 3 Miss Preakness and the Grade 3 Victory Ride; Pleasant Tales, most recently fourth in the Grade 1 Mother Goose; Grade 3 Iowa Oaks heroine Sarah Sis; and So You Say, making her stakes debut. Super Majesty is questionable.

A stellar cast is expected for the 1 1/8-mile Whitney, with seven Grade 1 winners among the nine probablea, including last year's winner, Southern Equine Stable's Moreno. Lining up to challenge him will be Honor Code, a dazzling last-to-first winner of the Metropolitan Handicap last time out;Noble Bird and Lea, first and second in the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs; 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, most recently second in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap; last year's Travers winner V.E. Day, runner-up in the Grade 2 Brooklyn on June 6; and Wicked Strong, second in the one-mile Forbidden Apple on the turf in his Whitney prep. Also likely are the Todd Pletcher-trained Liam's Map, making his graded stakes debut with a record of 4-1-0 in five starts and Normandy Invasion, with a pair of second-place finishes in two starts this year for trainer Larry Jones.

Also on Saturday's card in the $100,000 Lure at 1 1/16 miles on the turf, which is expected to attract multiple graded stakes winner Vyjack; Under Control, second in an optional claimer at Belmont last time out; Sycamore Lane, getting some class relief after an eighth-place finish in the Grade 1 United Nations in his stakes debut; and Reload, fourth in the Forbidden Apple on July 11. Manchurian High, Hollywood Idol, Heart to Heart, Grand Tito, Fredericksburg and Fixador are also probables.

Rounding out Saturday's stakes action are the $200,000 Fasig-Tipton Waya at 1 ½ miles on the inner turf, and the $100,000 Fasig-Tipton De la Rose at a mile on the turf, both for fillies and mares.

Cat's Claw, Chat, Eastern Belle, Evidently, Nice Number, Queen's Parade, Selenite and White Rose are probable for the Waya, with Llanarmonquestionable. The De la Rose is expected to feature a full field including A Little Bit Sassy, Baffle Me, Daring Kathy, Distorted Beauty, J Wonder, Joint Return, Miss Frost, Nellie Cashman, Pink Poppy, Recepta, Ticking Katie, Token of Love and Tuttipaesi.

Some familiar faces are among the likely starters for Sunday's $100,000 Alydar for 4-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles, including Dream Saturday, third in the Grade 1 Carter; multiple graded stakes winner Empire Dreams;Golden Ticket, who dead-heated with Alpha in the Grade 1 Travers in 2012;Mylute, third in the 2013 Preakness; and Neck n' Neck, runner-up in the 2012 Jim Dandy. Matrooh and Souper Lucky are questionable
 
Late pick 4 thoughts:

Race 7 - Six returnees against three firsters for 6 panels, I'm inclined to pass on the returnees here and go with the 2,3,9. #2 is half to My Happy Face for the hot Chad Brown barn, while #9 is a full sibling to Tapizar for KMc. #3 shouldn't be ignored at 12/1 and showing a nice string of works for Maker. Of the returnees I'm partial to #7 and his early speed for Clement. #1A could improve sharply in his 3YO debut and #5 also has room to improve after a rough start in his debut and showing a sharp workout on Saturday.

Race 8 - Wide open affair if you don't trust the import #8 making his US debut for Clement, although his stats with imports off a long layoff suggest this one could be quite trustworthy. The speed has been holding on the turf this year, but it's rained since Monday so we'll see if that changes some, but I'll still use #3 with JV for the ride. #4, #5 and #10 all fit at this level as well, and #2 and #6 are intriguing dirt to turf switches. Also the "other Brown", #9 could be in the mix, too. Yikes.

Race 9 - #3 Stonetastic looks to be lone speed but going 7 furlongs off the layoff is a tough stamina tester. If he falters #5 and #6 are most likely to benefit. If the pace quickens a little more #7 and #9 could get into the picture late.

Race 10 - Lots of speed expected here from 5, 7, 8. #11 has a big class edge here and will sit a nice stalking trip. If he gets sucked into the vanguard too soon then #6 and #10 are possible.

I like three potential singles in the last three races, so I'll look to hit 2 of 3 and spread elsewhere. If I go 3 for 3 then it's party time!

1,2,3,5,7,9 / 8 / 3 / 6,10,11 $9
1,2,3,5,7,9 / 8 / 3,5,6,7,8 / 11 $15
1,2,3,5,7,9 / 3,4,5,8,9,10 / 3 / 11 $18 ($42 total)
 
Interesting, must be seeing this one similar

I've got the 6 but included 4,5,7,12 as well
 
ya pretty fugly race to watch all around, use the 4 up on the backstretch

shit you see at Turf Paradise
 
This race might not be in Sweet Basil's wheelhouse but at double digit odds the overlay is too much to pass up. #2 across the board.
 
I had the 7 there and lucky to get refunded, but what made that a non-start?
 
Some quality horses running in some quality races this weekend, I'll try to get some thoughts in here a little later.

Honor Code is the real deal going 1 turn, going 2 turns is still a bit of a question mark in my opinion
 
Fri

R1 no strong opinion as this isn't the greatest bunch but #8 has faced much better, should have favorable pace setup and draws nicely on outside

R2 looking at #4 who's off the claim , Trakus has him running 53 feet more than winner last out and 2nd place finisher of that race ran 2nd at a huge price at this meet..#10 should have plenty of pace to run into late and could get the job done..#5 is also off claim for trainer that already has two wins at current meet, 1 off claim and other was 2nd off the claim
 
R3 a friend of mine owns the horse I like, no inside info ..I just know he spots them well and this is a nice drop in class that is perfectly logical #5...last out was off short layoff , was vs Alw company and was a sloppy track..that race is a complete throw out.
 
R4 7 and 3 exit same race and look to be contenders, 5 is a 1ster $7,500 stud fee and they paid $175,000 is interesting, a possible bomb is #4 off layoff but cutting back in distance and 1st time gelding for Moreno's connections.
 
R5 #3,9,11 look to be the main contenders, I prefer #3 who could be best price of the three..in last race was only one to make up ground late and two back won at today's distance 1 mile, horse she beat that day went on to win her next race.
 
R6 wide open 2 yo race, based on #1's works I believe she has enough early speed to make the lead and overcome difficult rail post for a 1ster, 10-1 ML Asmussen better 2nd out than 1st but still plenty capable with 1sters and at a price at this meet as well , popped with So Cal big price 2YO firster last meet
 
R7 I already liked #1 when I capped these races yesterday but now after seeing how easy Messi won today I like him even more ...two back closed into slow pace on good turf
 
8/7:

Race 2: #1 hasn't been able to break the maiden in 17 previous attempts, but has finished 2nd 4 times in 5 attempts this year, would use underneath but not on top. #2 has flashed some ability but has to be able to get out of the gate without stumbling and loses top rider to horse inside. #3 Hushion good numbers dropping from MSW to MCL and going sprint to route but not great with 1st turf attempts, mixed feelings here. #5 probably the one to beat, 3yo making only 2rd start certainly has right to improve for a trainer with good numbers 1st off claim and 30-60 day layoff, top pick. #10 has had a few tough trips either being hung way wide or having to steady in last 3, contender.

Race 3: #1 not the same horse since the failed Belmont effort last June, drops to lowest level in career, will be short price and will try to beat. #2 Another making a drop, may have needed last and seems to be main early speed, don't know if he wants 9F. #5 exits a very tough Alw race, drops down to a very winnable level after connections kept him protected since claim in Dec has some tactical speed to work out a good trip, top choice.
 
R8 likely fav is #4 and I can't get by her as she encountered traffic in last, that was a grade 3, tough trip two back as well in $100 k stakes
 
Race 4: Prefer #7 of those who have run, rallied past #3 in last. #3 went for $1.1M as a yearling and I'm sure connections are desperate for a win, can't ignore, although Asmussen has been pretty cold of late. #8 chased while wide before tiring badly in last off a long layoff, should be more fit for this effort and price may be right, as indicated by an impressive gate work last week. #2 has flashed some impressive times in the morning as seems tops of the firsters, also interested in #6 from ahot sire in Lookin at Lucky and Lynch can have them ready first time out.
 
R9 what a great race the HOF is this year, and so happy for Ant Man who I was fortunate enough to have met many times...
 
R9 is so wide open and you could go in a lot of directions..Chad Brown has five entrants. .#2 and #3 both cutback exiting Belmont Derby, #2 didn't have room early stretch and #3 had wide trip vs slow paced race and 2 for 2 Spa turf, #8 15-1 ml should be biggest price of Chad's horses and is an interesting French import adding lasix, #10 had wide trip in last
 
Whitney: Tonalist could be tough to beat and my bomb is 20-1 ml Wicked Strong. #8 Coach Inge expected to scratch and run in PAC Classic at Del Mar.
 
Lloyd, looking at the wide open De La Rose on Saturday R7..#5 looks very good but your boy Mott could be live with 15-1 ml #2
 
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