s--k's plays week 4

[s--k]

Same story as before, opinions, info and lines develop & change throughout the week...nothing gets called in until 30m prior to first game.

Edited - Probable Plays:
Troy (favorite)
Troy ML
Army
UNC
San Jose
Utah St
Ark St (courtesy of VK)
La Tech
MTSU / FAU Under
San Diego St

Edited - Remain under consideration:
Michigan
Marshall
Air Force (want more pts)
BYU (want line to drop)
Michigan St
Arz St
Tulane (want more pts)
Tulane Over
UTEP (want more pts)

Scratched:
Penn St, Rice, MTSU

Games I actually took below, copied from within the thread to here:

Called in:

1.5u
Troy +14
ML 50 for 225

1u
Army +2'
Marsh +9'
UNC +7
Tulane +17
Utah St +7
SD St +7

.5u
SJ St +3'
La Tech +10'
MTSU U 49'
Mich St +5
Ark St -4'
UTEP +3

Shitty lines on San Diego St and Mich St. Lost 3 on Army, gained on UNC and UTEP. Said fuck it and went $1 instead of .5 on UNC and Tulane, we'll see what happens.

Potential plays would still be Arz St, BYU and AF spread depending, kinda wanting to take a stab with Auburn.

week 4 -1.1u [Clemson]
week 3 / 8-7 +.95
weeks 1-2 / 25-21 -.7u unposted
futures

 

[s--k]

ARMY

Right off the bat, I tend to be a sucker for Army in the past. In fact I had a 1.5u and ML losing play on Army last year at Wake. Let’s start there.

Despite Army’s well known struggles on the road they could have beat Wake last year and that game was much closer than the 49-37 final. They had leads of 6-0, 13-7, 20-14 and 23-21 halftime. Army fumbled in the 3rd handing WF a TD. It was just 37-42 with Army in WF terr when 4 yr starting Steelman was knocked out of the game and his backup was a big drop off at the time and they SOD at WF 31. WF went on a clock killing drive and broke a 36y TD run on 3rd and 6. Army go the ball back, but went 4-and-out with the backup QB. Army traded scores with WF and neither team had any margin of error. The fumble setting up WF for a 20y TD drive and Steelman’s injury turned that game. The personnel for Wake is largely the same, although the situation differs.

If we were just to adjust last year’s line for home field this number would be about WF –1, but it was WF –4. Why is it because of their misleading final last year, or is it because WF is better? Or Army is worse? WF is not better and Army is not worse.


Where is Wake Forest?


WF certainly is not better this year, they are lost. I don’t know if last week was rock bottom for them or if their team will fall to new depths, but clearly this team is not better and would appear to be in jeopordy of missing their preseason goal of bowl eligibility. WF came into this season with a revamped offense, a run-oriented with option principles offense. The transition has gone badly and right now, they have absolutely no idea what they want to be. Vs ULM they had 15 total rushing att, including just 4 by Josh Harris and Price threw 47 passes. This is just one week after 39 rushing atts (for just 55y) and 30 passes vs BC. Now, if WF wants to revert back to the 2012 offense, that isn’t entirely bad for them, it worked well vs Army last year, but the point being they had all spring and summer to implement the new O, it hasn’t worked in it’s debut then appear to completely scrap it in one week, shift gears vs ULM, and that didn’t work either (just 15 FDs, 15 ry, 325ty and 19 pts). Price was also sacked 4x last week and had just two FDs on the first 6 2nd half possessions last week – this offense has major problems and a 4 year starting QB is looking like anything but.

Wake’s D has been what you’d expect, ok normally, but also unspectacular. Last year Army gained 506 on them which was Knight’s 2nd best output of the year. It should be noted, NT Nikita Witlock did not play last year and his presence is significant. WF’s D is almost never going to win them any games, but this D is experienced and yielded just 314y to BC yet 424 to ULM. Their ypc rush D is on avg where it was last year, just kind of your average WF D.

They did blk a punt vs BC (which the O couldn't capitalize on), and last week a roughing the punter vs ULM so this is an area that WF might try to attack Army if they are coming after punts hard.


Momentum for Army


This feels a little like my BC-USC writeup last week. Army has momentum and positive energy, WF is searching to find themselves. How can a team who is 1-2 off a 24 pt loss have momentum and positive energy? Army is certainly not the kind of team to take moral victories, however following the Stanford game all the comments were very positive. An Army DL even said they can “run the table” if they play every game with that kind of effort! Coach Ellerson said the “character, toughness and competitiveness is exactly where it should be”.

I'm personally cautious to put too much emphasis on the Stanford game. This is still a team that got drilled by Ball St. And Stanford was playing at 9am pacific time and it appears they did some of the "tourist" stuff at West Point rather than a hard edged business trip. Having said that it is hard to not be encouraged by the game as well. Army's 1st FG was the result of a sack/fumble on Hogan, but their 2nd FG drive they gained 3 FDs along the way. They later had a multi-first down drive for 40y reach the Stan 25 where they were SOD and then a 75y drive for a TD. After halftime the yards got alot tougher to come by and a key play was a 4th-and-1 stop at their own 25 leading to a quick Stan TD. All-in-all this game can be a shot in the arm for Army, they could have lost this game by 30, 40, 50 pts and looked uncompetitive - the opposite happened and based on post game comments it might serve as a spring board going forward.

Cadet questions / Deacs on the road

Turnovers are always going to be a concern with Army and it is not that the other team forces them, it mostly comes down to ball handling of the QB and RBs, 120th in nation with 20 fum lost 2012 and they've lost 3 this year (one last week vs Stanford). Unfortunately you have to assume they will lose one vs WF. Army struggles at winning the TO battle, but were +1 vs Stan.

If we dig into the stats and personnel, there is not much to gain from an Army perspective. They did bring back 8 starters from '12, which was their most ret D starters since 2004 and they started a handful of frosh last year. The RBs/FBs are good, and now better with the emergence of Terry Baggett. The biggest question is QB and Army is still trying to figure out if Santiago or Schurr will be the one. Army did lose 4 year starting QB Steeman so there isn't much known about the reliability of the QB (Steelman wasn't always reliable though either).

WF comes in here as a very rare road favorite. Since '08 they are only been fav on the road 6x with 3 outright losses and just 2 covers. And Army is a better team at home going 5-2 ATS as home dog last two years including 1 pt loss to NIU and outright upsets vs BC and AF (also upset Northwestern 2011).

Both teams need this game, but Army appears to be better positioned to win it. Feels like Army deserves to be a couple pt fav in my book.

 

[bloodhound]

GL s-k I look forward to all of ur thoughts on the games

 

[s--k]

GL s-k I look forward to all of ur thoughts on the games

Thanks, I'm sure I'll see something or can contribute to your thread as well. Keep up your good work.

Clemson wins this running away 45-17 :shake:

I have yet to solidify my opinion here, but that is my general idea. I'm not a chalky kind of guy and don't get to excited usually about laying multi-TDs on the road. Just off top of my head, I don't see a Pete Thomas led Pack keeping up and their D doesn't appear to be up to the task either. Another national tv spot for Clemson team wanting to continue proving themselves, upset last time in Raleigh should have their undivided attention.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Fantastic write-up on the Wake/Army game. I had the OVER in that game last season, so I paid very close attention to the game. I agree that Army could have just as easily emerge from that game as the victor. This game one game that really stuck out to me this week, and I agree Army is the side here. What also stuck out to me was how Wake got absolutely manhandled by BC at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. That leads me to believe that Army will be able to compete very well with Wake in the trenches.

I like the play and will be on +3.5 or +4, and probably ML as well.

:cheers:

 

[M.O.T]

I like Army also, any idea what the line will do from here? I held off yesterday looking for 4.5 and missed 4 all together. I can't decide if I want to lock in 3.5 or wait for it again.

 

[s--k]

Troy

Last year Troy racked up 572 yards vs Miss St (nearly 120 edge) and registered 30 FDs (to MSU's 17). They lost 24-30 catching 14 at home, with 4 turnovers being the difference along with a missed FG. MSU also hit some big plays through the air.

In the 2012 game Robinson was picked off twice by Darius Slay and as we know Slay and Banks were both 2nd round NFL picks.

Their absence was felt vs Auburn last week. Aub's Nick Marshall had only passed for 54% and 266 yards vs Wash St and Ark St combined, however vs Miss St Marhsall was 68% for 339 (2-2 ratio). Cory Robinson has an amazing 58 of 65 (89%!) for 600y and 7-0 ratio in his 2 games, but did come back to earth at Ark St only going 62% but for 504 and a 3-3 ratio. Last year vs MSU Robinson was 71% for 343y.

So I'm thinking Troy should have a successful day passing on this now weaker Bulldog D. Robinson spreads the ball all over the field with 3 WRs topping 12 catches and a RB with 14 receptions. Throw in a former QB, now RB/WR in Deon Anthony who also is a receiving threat (5r 95y not incl Sav St). This is a passing attack alot of teams are going to have trouble dealing with. Troy can run the ball effectively as well with a trio of ball carries that includes Anthony (leading rusher 207y 6.5ypc). They aren't as good a running team this year without a lead RB on hand and the OL is down with 3 starters making their first career starts this year. Troy has only given up 3 sacks however which calculates out to 3% of attempts.

Speaking of sacks, Troy's D has 9 (although 6 vs Sav St) and had only 13 last season. They have 22 tfl which they only had 50 all of last year. Miss St ranks in the bottom half of SEC in all major offensive categories including 14th in pass eff and 13th 3rd down conv and 13th in scoring O. Dak Prescott definitely brings something to the MSU O it has lacked running, but he is only a 53% passer. Whether it is Russell or Prescott throwing, all the WRs and TEs are new starters. This is important because MSU's top 2 WRs big games vs Troy last year. Perkins is back at RB and the OL is good, but all-in-all this doesn't seem like an offense that should run Troy out of the building.

Troy has had plenty of chances vs SEC teams over the years, 19 to be exact and they have only won 2 of those. 1 of those wins was vs Miss St (2001). Troy has been blown out and they've also had their near misses, just looking at the Cory Robinson years:

2012 lost to Miss St by 6 +14, lost to Tenn by 7 +18
2011 lost to Ark by 10 in week 2 +23'
2010 lost to S Car by 45 +21'

It is interesting to me that Troy has only won 8 games last two years combined, yet those losing teams have been competitive vs the three SEC squads they've played.

Bottom line

I think MSU is in trouble. Sure they could have won last week, but reality is they are 1-2 and they are heading down the road of not being bowl eligible at season's end. Mullen and MSU has never turned the corner many hoped. Even in their 7-0 start last year, they lost badly to the 4 teams finishing ahead of them in the west. To me, the prospects of them beating Troy by 2 TDs, or even beating them at all, are questionable. Troy's O is firing on all cylinders and the D could be showing signs of improvement (see sacks and tfl stats)(fans excited to have Wayne Bolt back at DC this year).

I see Troy really challenging this MSU D and again, if Nick Marshall can have the success he did what might Cory Robinson do?

 

[s--k]

Thanks Jimmy. Thanks M.O.T.

On the line, I really do not know what it will do and I don't make to much effort to know because I just call in whatever number is current saturday morning. My suspicion is that it would move lower and if I had the option I would probably take the 4 now. We use scoresandodds for the local so that shows 4. I would probably lock a 3.5 in as well, but again line movement really is not my thing, I have to play the waiting game.

Like I said, I think Nikita Whitlock is going to mean WF has a chance to play better vs Army this year than last. But overall, Army's lines won't be too overmatched.

In fact Army's DL has some "beef". DT Kough is listed at 239, but he says his playing weight is 255-260. DE Mike Ugenyi got his first career start vs Stanford, he forced 2 fumbles and weighs 257.

RB Maples (1000y rusher) and FB Dixon are still questionable for Army. I read that Maples may end up being doubtful, but Dixon says he feels pretty good (leg). It will depend how they practice this week. Baggett (96y vs Stan) was banged up as well, but is expected to be ok.

Army OL is still small, but Wake is certainly more their size compared to Stanford. NT Whitlock is only 260 lbs. Here is some info on Army's starting OL I found from fall camp. just some insight on their strengths:

LT: Michael Kime, Sr - Kime was Army’s most consistent lineman last season. He is coming off an ACL tear in November.
LG: Steve Shumaker, Jr - Shumaker is the only returning lineman to start all 12 games in 2012. He played right guard last season.
C: Ryan Powis, Jr- Army needs Powis to play his first full season. Powis is key in Raymond Maples’ counter runs.
RG : Zach Reichert, Sr - Reichert is Army’s most versatile lineman
RT: Justin Gilbert, So - emerged through spring and fall camp

top depth

Nick Bennett, Jr had hold down the starting LT spot for most of training camp.
Todd McDonald, Jr one of Army's top centers, but could play LT
Matt Hugenbert, So (6-3, 285 pounds) is pretty imposing

 

[RetroVK]

I hate to ask this question because it is so inconsequential in the context of what has happened ..... but will the academies perform better than normal after today's tragedy?

 

[austinhous]

BOL this week. :cheers:

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Thanks, I'm sure I'll see something or can contribute to your thread as well. Keep up your good work.



I have yet to solidify my opinion here, but that is my general idea. I'm not a chalky kind of guy and don't get to excited usually about laying multi-TDs on the road. Just off top of my head, I don't see a Pete Thomas led Pack keeping up and their D doesn't appear to be up to the task either. Another national tv spot for Clemson team wanting to continue proving themselves, upset last time in Raleigh should have their undivided attention.

I have a lot of respect for Dave Doeren as a head coach, and NC State does have some talent, but I'm not sure they are ready to compete with a team like Clemson. I find it interesting that the line has dropped from 14.5 this morning to 13 this afternoon. I assume a tout such as RAS released NC State as a play. That's the only thing I can think of. I think we'll see it get bet back up to 14-14.5 by kickoff. Although I think the game will be a little closer than what Boom believes, I think Clemson is the right side.

 

[bull]

excellent analysis on Wake-Army. I saw a lot of the Wake game and was unimpressed for the second week in a row. Haven't seen Army but the Stanford game offers encouragement
I like your side here, might take Army on ML
GL

 

[s--k]

I hate to ask this question because it is so inconsequential in the context of what has happened ..... but will the academies perform better than normal after today's tragedy?

Not comparable situations and I don't know how good Army or Navy were compared to who they played, but Army had a big noncovering loss at UAB and Navy lost by 17 getting 20 vs BC. These were the first games following September 11th 2001. AF had a scheduled bye when football resumed, they did win vs SD St although it was a week later than everybody else.

Just in general, I would think that a cadet athlete might respond a little better following a shock to their system compared to the typical 19 or 20 year old college athlete. Maybe there will be some stories or quotes that come out this week to provide more insight. I don't know.

 

[s--k]

I have a lot of respect for Dave Doeren as a head coach, and NC State does have some talent, but I'm not sure they are ready to compete with a team like Clemson. I find it interesting that the line has dropped from 14.5 this morning to 13 this afternoon. I assume a tout such as RAS released NC State as a play. That's the only thing I can think of. I think we'll see it get bet back up to 14-14.5 by kickoff. Although I think the game will be a little closer than what Boom believes, I think Clemson is the right side.

This Clem - NC St game reminds me a little bit of the FSU - Pitt game. That line had some movement towards the dog until it surged back up as game approached. People aren't sure whether to buy Clem laying 2 TDs on the road due to their past history just as FSU had a lot of questions surrounding their proposition of laying DDs. The chance of getting that many pts as a national tv conference home night dog vs an often disappointing road fav will get alot of people's attention. Just like Pitt had those perceived edges, they lacked on the field and I see that being the case for NC St as well. Just as Savage vs Winston was a huge mismatch at QB, it will be here as well with Thomas vs Boyd. It feels like it might just kind of slowly get away from Nc St as they struggle to sustain drives while Clemson does enough to keep themselves in consistent scoring position. Think Clemson tops 40 for sure and NC ST probably won;t hit 20.

BOL this week. :cheers:

excellent analysis on Wake-Army. I saw a lot of the Wake game and was unimpressed for the second week in a row. Haven't seen Army but the Stanford game offers encouragement
I like your side here, might take Army on ML
GL

Thanks guys. I will update the Army injury situation as we get closer. As long as atleast 2 of the 3 RB/FB are a go then I think they should be ok. And there is a starting OL and DL along with their best defensive player (Bacon) who got banged up last week, but the expectations is that those 3 will be a go for Saturday. If Bacon were to happen to miss that would be a very big loss.

 

[s--k]

I'm likely dropping Rice from my early list.

I see San Jose at +5 now. Was hoping for more, but it is still something I like, will have to look into it still.

And due to line movement, these teams have my interest now if the number keeps "improving"

Air Force was +2 now +4
Arz St was +7 now +9
Tulane was +10' now 14'
UTEP was -3 now pk

I rarely see a total I like, but that Tulane - Syracuse o54' looks mighty good.

Not sure Kansas should be 10 pt fav to anyone. And I am getting an itch to play Michigan small.

 

[s--k]

Another note on the Miss St - Troy game last year...it was just 23-21 MSU when they connected on a 25y TD pass on 4th and 5. Troy would go on for a FG, then MSU ran out the clock, but halfway through the 4th qrt, it was a 2 pt game and had MSU been stopped on that possession, Troy may have ended up winning that game. Point is just how close that game was, it wasn't Troy scoring late to make it look more respectable.

 

[M.W.]

Has Santiago improved for Army? The absence of Steelman continues to concern me.

And I agree with Boom -- 45-17 sounds just about right for the Clemson game.

 

[M.W.]

I have a lot of respect for Dave Doeren as a head coach, and NC State does have some talent, but I'm not sure they are ready to compete with a team like Clemson. I find it interesting that the line has dropped from 14.5 this morning to 13 this afternoon. I assume a tout such as RAS released NC State as a play. That's the only thing I can think of. I think we'll see it get bet back up to 14-14.5 by kickoff. Although I think the game will be a little closer than what Boom believes, I think Clemson is the right side.

Line moved against Clemson week after week last year, while Clemson backers kept taking the money. Part of it is that Clemson outperforms its yardage stats because of superior 3rd-down and red-zone offense and defense, which are reflected in stats that apparently are considered less predictive or less important.

Last year Glennon threw for 493 yards versus Clemson, with 5 TDs against just one INT, including some NFL-caliber long balls. Thomas isn't at Glennon's level, and Clemson DBs are healthier for this game. O'Brien, in his own way, was a really good coach, and his teams always played better as the season progressed because he would make intelligent adjustments to deal with what he was seeing on the field. The problem was that he didn't recruit well (except at QB!), and this lack of talent is going to be on display on Thursday and for the rest of this year.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Line moved against Clemson week after week last year, while Clemson backers kept taking the money. Part of it is that Clemson outperforms its yardage stats because of superior 3rd-down and red-zone offense and defense, which are reflected in stats that apparently are considered less predictive or less important.

Last year Glennon threw for 493 yards versus Clemson, with 5 TDs against just one INT, including some NFL-caliber long balls. Thomas isn't at Glennon's level, and Clemson DBs are healthier for this game. O'Brien, in his own way, was a really good coach, and his teams always played better as the season progressed because he would make intelligent adjustments to deal with what he was seeing on the field. The problem was that he didn't recruit well (except at QB!), and this lack of talent is going to be on display on Thursday and for the rest of this year.

I appreciate the response MW. I jumped on Clemson the minute the line dropped below 14. I just couldn't understand why a) the line was dropping so fast, and b) why nobody seemed to be talking about this game.

I think we all know that Clemson will get into the 40s. The real question is can NC State get into the 30s? I would probably give NC State credit for a weee bit more than 17 points, but I still don't think they can score enough to keep this within 2 touchdowns.

 

[s--k]

Has Santiago improved for Army? The absence of Steelman continues to concern me.

I'm probably not qualified to answer as I only saw some random plays of the Stanford-Army game and saw none of the Ball St game and the Ball St game would have gave some sort of indication. I know what the stats say, but they don't always tell the whole story.

I'll venture to guess though and say no he likely has not shown significant improvement. I say that based on Army rotating QBs. Santiago hasn't been good enough to keep Schurr off the field and they both play in games getting a couple series at a time. One thing, to Santiago's credit, some were questioning when he was taken out last week after leading the O on a good FG drive. The next two series Schurr was QB and some felt that effected the rhythm of the O. Angel came back in on the 5th series and led them on a TD drive. Schurr led them on a 4th qrt TD drive. It isn't much of a position of strength for them.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Are you playing MTSU -4, or is that just a lean for you right now??? I'm considering the other side.

 

[Marsski]

San Jose dropping at my book, I like them vs. the Golden Gophers at any price really. Going to have success in the air.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

BOL, bud. If it wasn't an early start, I'd consider the SJST ML.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

BOL, bud. If it wasn't an early start, I'd consider the SJST ML.

That kept the game off of my card as well.

 

[s--k]

Are you playing MTSU -4, or is that just a lean for you right now??? I'm considering the other side.

Early in the week I pick out the games I think I like and then as the week goes on I figure out exactly how much (or little) I actually like them and then nothing is bet until Saturday.

So MTSU is something I was considering.

I have been on FAU for 2 weeks and won with them luckily vs ECU and rightfully vs USF. Thought it might be time to jump off vs MTSU.

You have to really like FAU on D, but the O is still quite a problem. 14 of FAU’s 28 points last week came on defensive scores. Owls had 2 nice drives for TDs, although the first would have ended on a 4th-and-2 punt if not for roughing passer and the second was aided by USF unsportsman-like-conduct. Every other drive was anemic (only 13 FDs, 2 fewer than USF and 228 yards, 70 less than USF).

MTSU’s close game with Memphis doesn’t bother me that much as Memphis was making improvements last year and defensively that improvement has carried forward. Memphis DL is very good. Raiders weren’t great vs Memphis, and FAU will make them work for their yards too, but I don’t see a reason why Raider O can’t move it through air or ground. Good skill positions. They had a C and RG got injured and that may have had an impact vs Memphis, the O had some good moments vs UNC. OL was supposed to be a strength, but are now starting a couple guys they weren’t expecting. Looking at some stats here, the Red Zone O numbers are a little concerning (12 trips, 6 TDs and only 58% net scores – 2 stops have been on downs and 2 missed / 2 made FGs).

I’m not sure you need a whole lot on D to limit FAU, not sure you can count on that O to beat anyone as I don’t put much stock in the USF game. While their D is very good, I don’t quite see them a shut-down type unit vs O’s with a pulse. It will certainly be a low scoring and could be a close game. MTSU win by TD seemed reasonable, although that win could be by 1-5 and then they don’t cover. I’d be somewhat surprised if FAU won outright, but they are at home for first time this year and undoubtedly feeling some confidence, so intangibles point to Owls.

After having thought about it more, maybe I pass on it; what are your thoughts?

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Early in the week I pick out the games I think I like and then as the week goes on I figure out exactly how much (or little) I actually like them and then nothing is bet until Saturday.

So MTSU is something I was considering.

I have been on FAU for 2 weeks and won with them luckily vs ECU and rightfully vs USF. Thought it might be time to jump off vs MTSU.

You have to really like FAU on D, but the O is still quite a problem. 14 of FAU’s 28 points last week came on defensive scores. Owls had 2 nice drives for TDs, although the first would have ended on a 4th-and-2 punt if not for roughing passer and the second was aided by USF unsportsman-like-conduct. Every other drive was anemic (only 13 FDs, 2 fewer than USF and 228 yards, 70 less than USF).

MTSU’s close game with Memphis doesn’t bother me that much as Memphis was making improvements last year and defensively that improvement has carried forward. Memphis DL is very good. Raiders weren’t great vs Memphis, and FAU will make them work for their yards too, but I don’t see a reason why Raider O can’t move it through air or ground. Good skill positions. They had a C and RG got injured and that may have had an impact vs Memphis, the O had some good moments vs UNC. OL was supposed to be a strength, but are now starting a couple guys they weren’t expecting. Looking at some stats here, the Red Zone O numbers are a little concerning (12 trips, 6 TDs and only 58% net scores – 2 stops have been on downs and 2 missed / 2 made FGs).

I’m not sure you need a whole lot on D to limit FAU, not sure you can count on that O to beat anyone as I don’t put much stock in the USF game. While their D is very good, I don’t quite see them a shut-down type unit vs O’s with a pulse. It will certainly be a low scoring and could be a close game. MTSU win by TD seemed reasonable, although that win could be by 1-5 and then they don’t cover. I’d be somewhat surprised if FAU won outright, but they are at home for first time this year and undoubtedly feeling some confidence, so intangibles point to Owls.

After having thought about it more, maybe I pass on it; what are your thoughts?

Excellent write-up. I think you pretty much nailed it, and I really don't have anything to add to it. Yes, FAU has a stout defense, and their offense is anemic no doubt. I felt like this is a nice spot for the Owls, however, coming off of 3 consecutive roadies particularly with the last one being a huge confidence building victory over an in-state rival. I agree it will be a close low-scoring affair, and that would lead me to play the points. Weather is a little bit of a concern in Boca Raton on Saturday. I think it's going to be ok based on the current weather forecast, but it certainly bears watching. UNDER 47 may be the best play here.

Thanks again for the thoughtful reply.

 

[s--k]

UNC

Against the grain on this one compared to several others here. Will be watching the spread looking for a little more value on UNC, something over a TD and then probably .5u play.

I’m not sure about the Ted Roof hire. The competition hasn't been stiff yet this year. I’ll take Fedora O vs a Roof D. Renner came into this season with the highest pass eff rating in ACC history over his career. The results haven’t been spectacular this year with a tough game at S Car and a seemingly oft disinterested effort vs MTSU, but the tools for this offense to produce well are on hand.

GT has, had and will have their way with any and all ACC Ds at one time or another. Not sure of any advantages UNC D has on the field this year over last. A lot has been made of teams that have time to prepare for GT and their success in defending it. UNC had a bye prior to hosting GT last year and it didn’t help. Here is what Fedora said about the bye last year vs this year:

You had the bye week last year as well (before the Georgia Tech game). Did you change anything that you did from last year in preparation for this year's game?

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"Yeah, we did. We changed it up quite a bit actually. Part of that was learning some lessons from last year, but also, we have two bye weeks this year. This one is so much earlier in the season, it's a totally different deal. That was my plan in the summer when I was looking at the season and how it was going to play out, we planned out each of those bye weeks already way in advance. The second one's a little bit different to plan out, the second one's going to be 'What's the status of the football team at that time?,' but we did change up some things this time."


What kind of things did you do?

"We really spent almost all of our time on Georgia Tech, where we didn't in the previous year, I mean we were still trying to learn what we were doing offensively and defensively and spent time on us where this year we spent a lot more time just on Georgia Tech."

Actions speak louder than words, for now here are the words:

On beating GT

"I definitely take it personally,'' senior defensive lineman Tim Jackson

said. "It's a team in our Coastal Division that we haven't beaten yet, at least in my time. ... I see it as a point of pride and something I really emphasize on myself is to get this win.

“I definitely think we’re up for the challenge,” Boston said. “As a team we know what happened last year. We know we don’t want that to ever happen again. It’s one of those things we take to heart and we remember what happened and we want redemption. That’s pretty much how it is on this defense. I think coach is trying to make sure we’re ready for this game, and as one of the captains on the team, our defense is definitely ready for the game and we’re ready for the hype.”

Not typically a good matchup for UNC. Last beat GT at home 2008, last beat GT in Atlanta 1997.

2012 - UNC 497 yards (43y 4th qrt) / GT 588 (155y 4th qrt) / 68-50 GT
2011 – UNC 332 yards (99y 4th qrt) / GT 496 (96y 4th qrt) / 35-28 GT
2010 – UNC 352 yards (75y 4th qrt) / GT 448 (49y 4th qrt) / 30-24 GT
2009 – UNC 154 yards / GT 406 yards / 24-7 GT

2012 Teams traded scores back-and-forth. UNC led at halftime, but GT ran 2nd half KO back. GT never got up by more than 1 score until mid 3rd qrt. A 5 pt lead went to 8 when GT INT’d a screen pass on 1st and 10 in Heel terr. UNC’s next series saw an ill-advised fake punt on 4th-and-10 at UNC 25 gave GT ball back for quick TD, making it 51-36 and Heels never recovered.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Doesn't 60 seem like a crazy low total for two teams that combined for 118 points last season???

 

[twinkie13]

Really like your threads S-ck

great great stuff

GL bro

 

[s--k]

Thanks twink, just trying to contribute to the overall content and discussion again.

Jimmy, I'm not much of a totals guy, there were 2 non-offensive TDs last year, but still I'd have to think that it would be rather high scoring again. Which team is going to stop the other with much regularity?

2012 o/u 66, UNC -8'...a 6 pt lower total and a 15 point spread shift
2011 o/u 59'
2010 o/u 52

 

[Marsski]

Wish you good luck this week partner. We may be butting heads on UNC but I don't argue with many others you have on your list except maybe Army. Grobe is a very very good coach and has better talent vs Army which is an edge he never gets usually...

 

[s--k]

San Diego State

Time off and a new QB

When has a week 2 bye ever been needed so badly?

Shell shocked from the Eastern Illinois (+14) upset and then taken to the shed in the 'Shoe, Aztecs needed a reset more than anyone.

Dingwell threw 4 INTs vs E ILL and went 27 of 63. Those struggles continued at Ohio St before he was pulled due to ineffectiveness and back injury.

Aztecs won't have Adam Dingwell at QB this week, instead Long is handing the keys to walk-on JUCO Quinn Kaehler! January this year Aztec coaches were on the hunt for another QB due to concern of "accuracy at the position". Kaehler had tried to walk on 3 years earlier, but was turned away, now when Aztec coaches looked at his JUCO film they saw a totally different QB who was bigger, could read defenses and had the accuracy they sought. They took him in as an insurance policy.

Fast forward to this year, Dingwell comes out of the Ohio State game and in comes Quinn in the 2nd qrt. He finished the day 22 of 36-216-1-1. He went 5 of 5 60y TD in the 3rd qrt.

Now he starts vs Oregon State and is probably the right man for the job given Dingwell's struggles.

Aztec running game

Where's Adam Muema? Aztecs were 20th nationally rushing O '12 and Muema had 1450 yards, but due to ankle injury has just 13 att for 22y so far this year. He rested the ankle all off week and practiced for the first time Sunday. Indications from players and coaches that he looks good. Nobody knows what he'll look like at game speed, hopefully he looks like the Muema of old.

The OL has had a couple shuffles. It's not unreasonable that a healthy Muema means the run game can get going. Utes ran for 260 (117 by RB) and E Wash ran for 177 on them.

What must happen on D?

Pressure! SD St has just 1 sack in 2 games this year. Last season the Aztecs had 32 sacks, a high in recent years, and every single sack returns on that D this season! The front 7 is a strength for this D, while the CB position is still suspect. Mannion is off to an incredible start to the year and he could eat the inexperienced CBs up rFr Kazee (10 tkl, INT and forced fumble) has alot of potential. Whittaker (DNP '12, '11 or '10 all due to inj - 2 starts '13), Holder (28 career games, limited starts), So Romain (off played off bench last 2) are the other top 3. Aztecs like to blitz and those blitzes must get home in this game.

HM MWC '12 LB Derek Largent is out, but Vaness Harris has stepped into his position and leads team in tackles (15).

Side note: After being awful with FGs in 2011, Rocky Long made some headlines last year about not kicking FGs on 4th down. This year though Feer is 4 of 4 (L41). Long opted to kick FGs in the RZ week 1 so he appears to have confidence in the kicking game again.

Oregon State

A note about that Utah game, they used a fast start to build a lead, but had to hang on late. They converted two 4th downs, one absolutely critical, were outgained and benefited from 3 TOs (incl 73y INT ret).

As we know, Beavers also lost to a IAA team week 1 just like SD St did. Ore St is 109 in total D, while SD St is 114.

Just like SD St, Ore St has also not been able to get any run O going (210y 3 games). The OL has started a different combo each game this season and entering this week at C and RG they have 3 combined career starts (C Mitchell Soph, RG Grant Bays rFr). Last year's leading rusher Storm Woods is out this week with concussion. #2 '12 Ward steps into the #1 role now. Coaches hope to "kick start" the run game this week to balance things out. This would appear to be a good week for them to work on it, however I think that will also help SD St D. SD St coaches feel from a system standpoint they matchup well with Ore St, better than they have vs the other opponents so far and minus some questions at CB, Aztecs have the experienced personnel to be able to play with the Beavers. Aztecs just need to play to their potential.

2012 leading tackler (most tfl as well) LB Michael Doctor remains out for Beavers.

Conclusion

It's about as good a situation as Aztecs could have. Off a bye, with a chance to reset their season (which had reasonable expectations about them being good), get a QB on the field last game who can produce, now had 2 weeks practice as the #1, hopefully get a healthy stud RB on the field, light a fire under a D that should be producing - and - face a team in Ore St off a thrilling tough conference road opener OT upset win, now must travel for second week, that also struggles on defense and struggles to run the ball.

Oregon St is a rare road favorite and is just 1-3 ATS in that role the last 4 years (only cover was 42-10 laying 31 at Wazzou '09). That stretch includes 2 outright upsets losing to UW '12 17-20 -3, UCLA '10 14-17 -4' and UNLV a 2 pt win 23-21 -7 in '09.

SD St is also a rare home dog, under Long they are 1-1 with 35-52 2011 loss to Boise (+18') and 14-27 2011 loss to TCU (+4'). Dating back to Hoke, SD St was 2-2 as home dog 2009-2010 with one outright upset (AF 2010).

 

[s--k]

Wish you good luck this week partner. We may be butting heads on UNC but I don't argue with many others you have on your list except maybe Army. Grobe is a very very good coach and has better talent vs Army which is an edge he never gets usually...

It's all good.

UNC is a reach for me. A gut game more than a logical play. I don't mind losing on gut plays sometimes. I'd rather play it and see it lose, than not play it and see it win. So I'm a gambler in that sense.

Grobe is good, but I do think his experiment this year with that offense has given him a bit of a black eye right now. They could turn it around, we'll see. I think Army is in a good position this week.

 

[s--k]

What to like about La Tech?

30 tackles for loss, #1 in nation and 12 sacks, t-#2 nation. And it isn't like they padded the stats much vs Lamar much. They had 9 tfl vs NC St and 11 vs Tul. 5 sacks vs Tul (although 6 vs Lamar). This DL is eating people up. Their 3 and 4 man rush caused a good bit of problems for Tulane last week. The DL is the only thing La Tech can really count on in their D. All Conf Ik Enempali has 4.5 sacks (6 last year) + 2 hurries. At the other DE position V Dora has 1.5 sacks (1 last year played in all games, stated 9) and has 4.5 tfl '13 (0 last year).

LB Daniel Cobb (Sr trans TT - 70 tkl, 7.5 tfl for Raider 2011) is having a huge impact for a LB unit that needed it. He's got 24 tkl and 8 tlf in 3 games here (#2 tackler) +2 hurries and forced fum.

Rice was able to sack KU 3x and got in the backfield for 8 tfl. South Dakota also dropped KU for 8 tfl (2 sacks). At 8 tfl avg per game that ranks KU #114.

KU beat South Dakota by 17 laying 24, lost to Rice 14-23 and Owls ran for 196y (4.6).

Heaps was just 10-20-110 vs SD and 13-28-157 vs Rice. 2-2 ratio and -41 ry on the year. He's under pressure and he isn't performing well under pressure.

There are plenty of things to not be thrilled about with La Tech (QB play, secondary, RZ O - blown scoring opportunities vs TUL), but still not sure KU deserves to lay 11 here. KU has been a DD fav vs IA teams just once L3y and they lost that straight up to Rice 2012. If we include all times they've been fav 2010-2013 incl IAA teams they are 1-4 ATS with two outright losses.

What is there to be excited about from a Jayhawk perspective? Not that familiar with their team, but 3 of their top 6 recruits (all JUCO) are not playing this year. Receivers aren't catching. KU runs the ball well, that is about it. Is KU D anything to worry about?

 

[ManchesterUk]

Awesome thread sk

Thanks :cheers:

 

[HUNT]

one of the best threads around..week in week out

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Brother love what you're doing, don't stop

 

[Dollaz]

Good job on Marshall you guys. All the way down to 8 where I saw it recently.

 

[s--k]

Awesome thread sk

Thanks :cheers:

one of the best threads around..week in week out

Brother love what you're doing, don't stop

I appreciate the kind words guys. Like I think I said last week, I just love everything about the sport and the anticipation leading up to the games is almost just as good as betting the actual games.

Good job on Marshall you guys. All the way down to 8 where I saw it recently.

Glad that everyone on Herd got a good number that came out Sunday night or early in the week. None of my numbers are official until Saturday morning....so depending what it is I may or may not play it. I liked it quite a bit at anything higher than 10, as it gets closer to 7 I get a little nervous. We'll see where it lands.

 

[s--k]

Clemson -14 $1

 

[s--k]

Clemson -14 $1

-1.1u

The first half really hurt Clemson. I mean we all saw the game. I did not factor the impact NC St's DL could or would have, but still Clemson couldn't cash their drives in early, missed open receivers behind the coverage deep. The old attage of 'we get FGs, they get TD' and 1 TD is greater than 2 FGs. So the bet was behind the 8 ball early on. NC St had some big plays and questionable sideline calls. All-in-all I would still bet Clemson -14 if they were playing at NC St Saturday. Missing 2 pt conversion eliminated push, NC St's what 23 play drive I think where they converted 4 of 4 4th down. NC St deserved to cover. Clemson did not play well enough.


I'm going to update the probable plays I like for Saturday and get some more info on some of these games.

 

[s--k]

Green Wave v Orangemen

Tulane news

Montana had stitches in a finger on his throwing hand. Stitches came out Thursday. He played with the cut vs La Tech and it bothered him with grip and catching snaps. Montana said it "should be good this week".

Lou Groza winning K Cairo Santos has been in Brazil with the death of his father (plane crash) and he had not returned to practice as of Thursday. The team still expects him to travel and play in the Syracuse game. There is a chance he won't be available though.

After the LT DL caused protection problems last week (6 sacks), they've been practicing this week with different play calls and options to hopefully take pressure off Montana.

2 LBs suspended. Kyle Davis DNP vs LT, but is susp this week. Dominique Robertson (#4) tklr is a bigger loss. However, Sr Zach Davis returned from susp vs LT and played very well.

Wave O and D

I've always liked the weapons that Tulane has. RB Darkwa was banged up last year, healthy now and is complimented by Rob Kelly who led vs LT. WR Ryan Grant is a go-to guy, had 7 100y games last year, he's t-6 ncaa w/ 24 recp this year. There is no #2 guy which can be concerning, however Syracuse hasn't faired well stopping opposing WRs so far (more later).

The OL is a big concern. Phil Steele said "should have one of the most improved OLs in FBS", but that simply hasn't happened. In their defense, I think the LT DL is really good, although Syracuse will be just as challenging if not moreso. Montana is getting better each week (one missed big play last week when Grant couldn't hold). And the RBs can make plays if the holes are there.

The D looked pretty good against LT even if LT missed some chances for more pts. You'd be really optimisitic about the DL and tr fr LB Nico Marley is having a big impact. If the D can play as they did vs La Tech, then they can compete this week, but that is if


'Cuse finds themselves vs Wagner

Syracuse got a lot of things right last week vs Wagner. They rushed for more in that game than they did vs PSU and NW combined. And they found a QB, benching Drew Allen and his 6 INTs (only 43% vs PSU). Terrel Hunt came in vs Wagner and went 15 of 18 – 265 – 3 – 0 and wins the starting job. Offensively they figured some things out.


The defense was also amazing vs Wagner. Wagner QBs combined for 6 of 21 with 2 INTs. Wagner ran for 53 (sacked 2x), held to 87ty! The Wagner QB wasn’t great in games vs Georgetown (7 pt win) or Dll Merrimack (1 pt loss) either. Just so there is no confusion, Wagner is not a good FCS team.

Will the real Syracuse D please stand up?


Vs Penn St (in Hackenberg’s first college game ever) Nits passed for 23 of 23 – 296 – 2 – 2 and Allen Robinson did much damage in just 2 qrts of play 7-133-TD. PSU only ran for 57 RY (after 3 sacks).

Vs NW their two QBs combined for 30 of 37 – 375 – 4 – 0 and Tony Jones exploded for 9-185-TD, who had never come close to those kind of numbers before. NW had 206 on the ground (after 3 sacks).

Of note, Cuse does have 7 sacks on the season. DT Jay Bromley has more sacks this year (3) than all of last year (2.5).


Even with the Wagner game Cuse has just the 89th best pass eff D (last in ACC). Their 3rd down conversion D jumps out at you at 12th nationally (27%), BUT that includes Penn St who has been terrible on 3rd down vs everyone. NW, for example converted 10 of 18


Terrel Hunt


This is a huge development. Including a 4th qrt drive vs NW where he relieved Allen, Hunt has been Cuse QB for 7 series and the result is 6 TDs and 1 FG. Hunt can and will run as well. The offense exploded last week with him, albeit vs Wagner, but I think Hunt at QB is going to be huge positive for Orange going forward. I have a suspicion we aren't going to see any sub-20 pt games from this offense in the weeks to come.

Vs lesser competition the OL should perform well, although the interior is a little small at about 284 a man. Cuse uses a RB-by-committee approach even though Jerome Smith ran for 1100y '12.

2011

Syracuse was -10 at Superdome and won 37-34 (led 24-7) and got the winning FG as time expired. Cuse was off back-to-back OT games and had Friday night vs WVU on deck. Tulane 471-356 TY edge, both teams 4.3 ypc rush. Current Cuse HC Scott Schaffer was then DC and Curtis Johnson was not hired at Tulane until 2012.

Conclusion

The line has been bet up almost a TD. I think Terrel Hunt's emergence at QB is very big, however last week's results were against lowly Wagner and his series vs NW was late when NW had liberally subbed. At any rate, Hunt is going to have this offense much improved over Allen I am confident.

I would think that Tulane's O has some potential to move the ball and score on Orange D. Everyone knows that Tulane OL is having problems, including Tulane coaches, and while Montana doesn't have a ton of experience I am less worried about him as I am about the OL holding up. But probably the biggest concern of all is at kicker. Whether Santos plays and what state-of-mind he is in along with how he feels physically is a big unknown here.

I still probably lean Tulane a little and will look for more points if the line keeps going, but I definitely don't like it as much as I thought I might. I believe the Over still worth a look. If Hunt is the real deal, Syracuse could score upper 30s-40s and I would suspect that Tulane could get into the 20s even on a backdoor.

 

[twinkie13]

If the best kicker in CFB doesn't play, that would be devastating to a potential cover.

Strange game.

 

[s--k]

I like San Jose St still, but wanted some more value on them. Noel Grigsby is out

San Jose State faces life without star Noel Grigsby beginning Saturday in Minnesota

By Jimmy Durkin

jdurkin@bayareanewsgroup.com
Posted: 09/20/2013 09:55:02 AM PDT | Updated: about 4 hours ago

MINNEAPOLIS --
Teams hope to come off a bye week healthier than they began.

But San Jose State returns from a week off by facing Minnesota at 9 a.m. Saturday on ESPN2 reeling from the loss of star wide receiver Noel Grigsby.

Grigsby, the school's all-time leading receiver and the Football Bowl Subdivision's active leader in receptions, injured his knee at practice Wednesday. He did not travel with the team to Minnesota and is out indefinitely with the fear he may be lost for the season.

If Grigsby can't return this season, his brilliant career at San Jose State would be done. The fifth-year senior doesn't appear to be in line to be granted an additional season of eligibility.

Grigsby meets the requirement of a medical redshirt by playing in only two games this season, but he would need an extension of his five-year clock to return next year. That requires players to lose two seasons for reasons beyond their control and a voluntary redshirt, as Grigsby took his first year on campus, doesn't count as one.

"Every championship team I've been around has fought through adversity early on in the season. You have to overcome that," SJSU coach Ron Caragher said this week, although he wasn't speaking about Grigsby's injury -- the seriousness of it wasn't known at the time.

Grigsby's absence will be difficult -- but perhaps not impossible -- to replace. Receiver is among the team's deepest positions, with Jabari Carr now assuming a starting role alongside Chandler Jones.

Kyle Nunn and Tim Crawley will also likely see increased roles and the staff may have to consider taking the redshirt off true freshman Tyler Winston, who has the look of a future star.

The situation serves as just an additional piece of adversity for the Spartans (1-1) to deal with in their matchup with Minnesota (3-0). The early-morning kickoff figures to present a challenge.

"It's different, but it's just getting that game clock going," Fales said. "You've got to start the day before. When you go to sleep, you've got to know you're waking up and have got to play a game."

Some extra fire may come in the form of this being the team's first of seven nationally-televised games.

"It brings a little more energy to the game having it be on ESPN," Fales said. "Our guys are looking forward to it."

Follow Jimmy Durkin on Twitter at twitter.com/Jimmy_Durkin.

<tbody>
</tbody>

I would feel better with Grisby-Jones-Carr out there compared to Jones-Carr-?. Think they will still be ok at receiver, but losing a guy like Grisby is pretty big. Fales is also missing last year's top TE (#2 receiver), TE position is less of a factor in the passing game this season.

SJ St will be one dimensional as they were vs Stanford 2 weeks ago. Even last year with a 1000y RB, SJ ST was never able to have a dependable running game and this year expected top RB Tyler Erivin has been injured. 5th year Sr Jason Simpson (180 career yards before 2013) is the #1 by default.

It's going to have to be all Fales all the time.

2 weeks ago vs Stanford, down by 21, SJ St was somewhat fortunate to cover in that Cardinal decided to start taking a knee at Spartan 25 to end the game. However, SJ St also had chances for more pts. They had 22 FDs, but just 251 total yards. 1st half drives that reached the 13 and 5 yard lines they settled for FGs and they were SOD at the 7 in the 4th qrt.

Minnesota has yet to play an impressive game this season. UNLV was a misleading final, as was NM St. We know alot of their scores have been on ST and D this season. I don't want to write that off too quickly, they may have a knack for some of it. DT Haggaman is really good and he's blk'd two FGs this year. And even if their ST units don't score this week, they might set up good field position.

Still like SJ St, but do wish there was more value on them. I think they can win, but am not necessarily expecting them to.

 

[bull]

:announce:

s . . . k for FCS try sportsnetwork.com has about all the info you need once you get comfortable with navigating.
you can also get Div2 and Div3 which I find valuable when the playoffs come.
I refernce both keepers.com and dunkel.com., not to get picks but to confirm (or deny ) what I have selected.
I'm going to put this in your thread for you.
thanks for the kind words. I've become one of your faithful followers.

 

[s--k]

Army update. Maples appears out, which isn't as big of a deal as it would be if Baggett hadn't emerged.

Quick Sept. 19 practice blog

By Sal Interdonato | Published: <abbr class="published" title="2013-09-19T11:41:31-0400">September 19, 2013</abbr> | Leave a comment

Army coach Rich Ellerson said fullback Larry Dixon and defensive end Bobby Kough will be available for Saturday’s home game against Wake Forest.

Dixon was injured early in the third quarter of Army’s 34-20 loss to No. 5 Stanford last week. Kough was banged up in the game.

Dixon and Kough both practiced for the first time this week on Thursday. Don’t think it’s been determined how much they will play Saturday.

Spoke to tackle Momo Kime, who left the Stanford game in the fourth quarter after getting banged up. Kime said he will play against Wake Forest. He was working with the starters in practice.

Running back Raymond Maples hasn’t practiced all week and is looking doubtful. Maples suffered an apparent groin injury in the second quarter against Stanford.

Junior cornerback Marques Avery could play in his first game of the season. Avery, a starter last season who has missed the first three games with a back injury, was running with the second-team defense.

- See more at: http://blogs.hudsonvalley.com/west-point-army-football/#sthash.Rby4qT6I.dpuf

Terry Baggett, Army junior running back: Baggett may have to carry the load with senior Raymond Maples doubtful (groin) and junior fullback Larry Dixon (leg), who could be limited. He had four plays of 13 yards or more against No. 5 Stanford last week.

 

[s--k]

UNC been practicing against cut blocks all week, they did not practice cut blocks last year:

Tim Jackson, UNC’s senior defensive tackle, sat out the 68-50 loss against Georgia Tech last year. He missed that game because he was hurt, and he was hurt because he suffered an injury against Duke on a play in which an opposing player used a cut block against him.

So Jackson knows about cut blocks, and how effective – and dangerous – they can be. Up until the start of last week, Jackson said, UNC had never practiced against cut blocks during his tenure. That changed this season when the Tar Heels turned their complete attention toward preparing for Georgia Tech.

“They want to make it as realistic as possible, so these scout guys are taking shots at our knees,” Jackson said. “Not maliciously or anything, but just to simulate what will happen this Saturday. And it’s definitely changed the flow of practice.

“You’re not just – OK, I’m just going to come up on this guy, I’m going to take the back door, go behind the lineman. You have to realize that that tackle is going to come down on you. I’m just talking from the 3-technique perspective. Knowing that that tackle is going to come down and chop.

“It definitely makes it more realistic and it helps prepare us. Those guys have done a great job.”

Whether all this preparation makes a difference won’t be clear until sometime Saturday afternoon. At the least, UNC should be more familiar for what it will play against than it has been in past seasons against Georgia Tech.

The Tar Heels know what to do, ideally, to defend themselves from cut blocks.

“You want to shoot your hands at the head and the shoulder pad of the guy,” Jackson said, “and assist him to the ground. And then shoot your butt back so your knees are out of the way, and go make the play.”

Now it’s just a matter of putting the practice into practice on Saturday.

Read more here: http://blogs.newsobserver.com/uncnow/unc-prepared-for-cut-blocks-against-georgia-tech#storylink=cpy
​

 

[s--k]

Largent probably won't play, although I thought he was ruled out, seems he is gametime decision. More positives on Muema and what the new QB Kaehler brings to the table.

Just some quick notes from the Aztecs' Wednesday evening practice.

OLB Derek Largent was practicing with the second team Wednesday, his right knee still strapped in a brace. He looked a little stiff -- though from the look of that sturdy brace, I think anyone would look stiff running with it.


Still, Rocky Long said Largent looked better on Wednesday than he did Saturday. The doctors have cleared him to play, but Largent will be a game time decision based on how he feels on Saturday. He sprained the PCL in his right knee against Eastern Illinois, and the original prognosis was that he'd be out two to four weeks. This Saturday will mark three weeks since the injury.


Running back Adam Muema moved well in practice, and didn't appear bothered by his low ankle sprain at all. "He looks like he's back to being himself again," said tight end Adam Roberts. "Today he was flying around. He looked ready."


Tight end action?

With Quinn Kaehler in at quarterback in the second half against Ohio State, the Aztecs' tight ends finally saw some action in the passing game. Roberts caught a 17-yard pass, and Robert Craighead had two receptions for 21 yards.


But the emergence of the tight ends doesn't really correlate to the change of signal caller.


"I think we got all our catches off play action," Roberts said. "Later on in the Ohio State game, we were able to get the running game going. So once we got the running game going, we were able to use the pass, whereas Eastern Illinois, we really couldn't run the ball, so a lot of it was just straight dropback passes."


The new quarterback does, however, seem to do a couple other things exceptionally well.


"I think he's got really good accuracy when it comes to those deep throws you've got to put on a line, those comebacks and out routes,"


So much for the perceived lack of arm strength.

 

[s--k]

Called in:

1.5u
Troy +14
ML 50 for 225

1u
Army +2'
Marsh +9'
UNC +7
Tulane +17
Utah St +7
SD St +7

.5u
SJ St +3'
La Tech +10'
MTSU U 49'
Mich St +5
Ark St -4'
UTEP +3

Shitty lines on San Diego St and Mich St. Lost 3 on Army, gained on UNC and UTEP. Said fuck it and went $1 instead of .5 on UNC and Tulane, we'll see what happens.

Potential plays would still be Arz St, BYU and AF spread depending, kinda wanting to take a stab with Auburn.

 

[s--k]

Really tough breaks in the Tulane game. Several special team errors. Cuse only had 10 more total yards at halftime, but led by 25.

UNC's dumb ass 2 pt conversion play on first TD cost me.

WF QB Price started 0-7 or 0-8 and Army D played really well, but O couldn't get anything working of their own. Nakita Whitlock for Wake just totally owned Army from his NT position.

Offensive explosion out of FAU and MTSU. So much for that good FAU D.

I guess now all I need is for VT to win by 13 in OT to put my ass to sleep (I've actually lost by 13 in OT before).

Awful way to get started.