week 5 and ALL of these plays will be better than my Colorado +21 last week. Guaranteed!




spottie2935

spottie2935

Read Lines, Not Books
Decided to make a thread because i was clogging up the week 5 discussion thread.

Temple +3.5
Mid Tenn +7
NC. St. +3
Clem -7
S.Ala +3
Buf +2.5
E.Mich +7.5
Virg +3
NIL +13
Ball St.+1
E. Carolina +3
Troy +1.5
S. Miss +7
Ark St+1
Coastal Car+6.5
Texas -16.5
Colorado/ USC over 74
Notre Dame -5.5
Nebraska +17
New Mex +14
W. Virginia +12.5
Navy -4
UAB +21.5
Vandy +14
Louisiana Tech -1
ASU +13

13 best bets in bold
 
Last edited:
I think UVA will be one of the 5 and NC State, NIU, and Troy will be three of the 16. At least that’s how I’m betting. Good luck this week. Hope Clemson comes through for you!
 
How is S FL going to hold down Navy's attack all game.

Last week S FL 2.5 home dogs to RICE now only +4 at Navy. S FL over valued because they covered against Bama
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Agreed. I hate betting on my team because I feel like a homer (gross!) when I do, but I think this is right. BC is bad and there‘s a lot (compared to BC) to like about UVA despite its record
Click to expand...
Thanks and I think the books are still evaluating BC because of their outstanding performance against FSU.
 
DUKE and why Notre Dame this week. Well I asked myself why is this line only 5.5 when in week 1 Duke was +12.5 home dogs to a struggling Clemson? Notre Dame is off a tough loss. Yes they are for sure, but they are also able to sleep walk in the first half and still get a cover here. The line is that low and so far Notre Dame has been on an elite level.

DUKE! :

They played lol its really funny! :

Clemson
Lafayette the +42 point dog Lafayette the FCS school, not the good FBS Lafayette from Louisiana
Northwestern
U Conn

Its stinking DUKE! If Notre Dame doesn't cover I'd be shocked.
 
S. Miss +7

Before these last 3 games S. Miss was in regression mode after a 14- 3 ATS run.

Part of this is a pure gamble because Starting QB is still up in the air.

PlayerPOSStatus
Z. WilckeQBQues Sat - Personal
( Mon, Sep 25)
Wilcke has sat out the past four games due to a personal matter, and it is up in the air if he will face Texas State on Saturday.

According to this site he has not played this season. I know nothing about him, but what I do know is this same team was +9 at home Vs. Tulane with Tulane's back up QB.

Allow me to make my point.

Tulane -9 at S. Miss is not the same as
Texas St. -7 at S.Miss . Period. Texas State has no history of being Tulane even with Tulanes back up QB.

S. Miss offense runs the ball and Has Frank Gore Jr. If S. Miss (and I expect this to happen) they will control this game and get the cover. If Can play Wilcke can play they will provide even more offensive balance.

Texas State Schedule results:

week 1 beat Baylor but Baylor is pretty much a disaster. Still a great win for TX St.

week 2 lost a close game to UTSA, another team (UTSA that has struggled to find their best game) that isnt having their regular type of season.

week 3 beat Jackson St. FCS

week 4 played Nevada and were too big a favorite -17

Here is Tx St again off the first 3 games of covers laying too many points.

Last and in my opinion most important point. Texas State is 15-68 SU in away games. S. Miss even with a back up QB shouldn't be as bad as this line.

Even with a back up QB S. Miss runs the ball with their 2 good backs they are playing a team that rarely wins on the road after elevating to a -17 point line last week. This is another chance at a inflated line.

I get it its a type of PUKE game to bet on. Thats one of the best parts the away favorite is puke as well. They have been playing over their heads. Road games as favorite should slow them down.
 
Last edited:
I am going over 74 with CU this week.

They were expected to score last week and now this line climbs to 74. Well USC's D isnt Oregon. USC's offense is even better than Oregon.

Its an early game for CU and so far they are 2-0 in those noon kicks. They love the early games and being at home a lot of things will be helpful.

They are scoring this week and I see this the better play than chancing the +22.

USC may score 50 but surely they get 40+. How many both teams get depends on how much time the clock runs between plays. CU going to score touchdowns this week . Watch me lose my azz again this week. I am not scared but I do have a stinky residue from last week.
 
spottie2935 said:
S. Miss +7

Before these last 3 games S. Miss was in regression mode after a 14- 3 ATS run.

Part of this is a pure gamble because Starting QB is still up in the air.

PlayerPOSStatus
Z. WilckeQBQues Sat - Personal
( Mon, Sep 25)
Wilcke has sat out the past four games due to a personal matter, and it is up in the air if he will face Texas State on Saturday.

According to this site he has not played this season. I know nothing about him, but what I do know is this same team was +9 at home Vs. Tulane with Tulane's back up QB.

Allow me to make my point.

Tulane -9 at S. Miss is not the same as
Texas St. -7 at S.Miss . Period. Texas State has no history of being Tulane even with Tulanes back up QB.

S. Miss offense runs the ball and Has Frank Gore Jr. If S. Miss (and I expect this to happen) they will control this game and get the cover. If Can play Wilcke can play they will provide even more offensive balance.

Texas State Schedule results:

week 1 beat Baylor but Baylor is pretty much a disaster. Still a great win for TX St.

week 2 lost a close game to UTSA, another team (UTSA that has struggled to find their best game) that isnt having their regular type of season.

week 3 beat Jackson St. FCS

week 4 played Nevada and were too big a favorite -17

Here is Tx St again off the first 3 games of covers laying too many points.

Last and in my opinion most important point. Texas State is 15-68 SU in away games. S. Miss even with a back up QB shouldn't be as bad as this line.

Even with a back up QB S. Miss runs the ball with their 2 good backs they are playing a team that rarely wins on the road after elevating to a -17 point line last week. This is another chance at a inflated line.

I get it its a type of PUKE game to bet on. Thats one of the best parts the away favorite is puke as well. They have been playing over their heads. Road games as favorite should slow them down.
Click to expand...
I can totally see this. I’ll likely be on it.
 
Arkansas St+1
After starting the season with 2 beat downs for a combined score of 3-110 against Oklahoma and Memphis they have 1 cover and one push. Most people look away from a team that started so poor. I look at their opponent this week and find them interesting enough to take a stab
 
Play against UCF

Any favorite that will be dogs (or even small favorites less than or =-3. In their next to matchups.

UCF has Kansas and Oklahoma after this week and both of those games on the road.

Here is the query: (I allowed room for Kansas to be a small dog just in case they lose big like I expect).

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com
 
So the home favorite UCF this week is in a situation where past teams in the same situation are

281-461 38% ATS

No one likes Baylor because they look bad but facing these teams doesn’t help:
Texas
Utah
Texas St.
Baylor is 0-3-1 ATS on the season.
 
Vandy/Miz.

Mizzu has been in close games all season. Even though they won in week 1 to SDAK 35-0 I consider that a close game for who they play and what the line was in that matchup. MIZ first 3 games were all at home and last weeks Neutral game in St. Louis. This is key and I will go over the data in a momnet

Vandy No covers this season. Mizzu has covered the last 2 both in close 1 score wins. According to history and I am couniting on Mizzu to be Mizzu just like Ohio State is Ohio State and U Mass is U mass. Teams like Mizzu are very consistent give a longer period of time. Put a few season of data together and the variances level out.

Well Vandy is also pretty much the same every year even if they have a good season its always been difficult to maintain high levels.

Data: Mizzu away in its last 38 games 10-28 SU and 10-26 ATS add to this when Mizzu is away and the line is c a small dog of <=3 or a favorite Mizzu in those games are 8-8 straight up and 4-12 ATS. Mizzu just cant elevate this high to get -14 covered. To be comfortable when wagering on a -14 point line, said team must be winning by 24+ late in the forth quarter. This will eliminate any chance of a Vandy backdoor cover.

If Mizzu covers this -14 point spread I feel like Vandy would completely have to toss this game in to the hand of Mizzu. Sure that possible but I feel like the odds against that are in my favor.

Vandy gets their 1st cover of the season here. Backdoor is open but I dont think it comes to that. Last week Vandy was at home to KTKY with the same +13.5 line failed to cover. KYKY is better than Mizzu. Easier opponent this week same line.

A little bit about Vandy's season ( I am troughing out week 1 vs. Alabama A&M) 3 games after week 1. @ Wake 20-36, @ UNLV 37-40,Home v KYKY 28-45. Vandy is averaging 28 points in those games. Vandy is averaging 24 points vs Wake and KTKY. So if those averages play out again 24 points scored and a -14 line makes Mizzu have to score 30 to cover. Very few times in Mizzu's history do they score 39+

They key for Vandy is keep Mizzu under 39 points here and this game is theirs.

Any team thats line is <=-10 that doesnt score 39 points is :
ATS:1074-2707-92 (ATS 28.4%)


Vandy +14

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com
 
Last edited:
UAB+21.5

Tulane's ATS record is outstanding. Now its being tested bigger and bigger each week by the books. Here is a big number. Within this strong run the history has shown with 3 td line for Tulane to handle they have played these teams : UMass -28, Alcorn -35, Nichols -38. the next biggest line they have had to face was S.Miss -12 and S.FLA -12.

I know their stud QB is back but this line is a huge jump. Maybe I am a sucker for buying in to a big line. ( I did this before, right Colorado? lol) But Oregon is way more consistant that hot Tulane year over year. The book are stretching this line too far and I will attempt to exposé the line.


KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com

UAB has scores 21+ in all their games this season ( yes they even scored 21 against Georgia. I dont know how I didnt watch the game). Tulane is going to need 42 + if that happens again.

Lastly durring this hot streak for Tulane their average line has been -3.75 in their last 23 games and covered 18 of the 23. Their lines have been reasonable. Not anymore.


UAB +21.5
 
Last edited:
Add Ariz St +13

I dont like Cal as a favorite and with them being a big home dog next week that puts their line this week in a terrible situation.
 
Mid Tenn. playing against a bad defense getting +7 has a good enough chance.

Houston Christian put a 14 spot on Wky's D is the first half. If Wky had a better D Ohio State would not have rung 63 on them. Bad defenses keep their opponent in the game. Its going to happen
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
UAB+21.5

Tulane's ATS record is outstanding. Now its being tested bigger and bigger each week by the books. Here is a big number. Within this strong run the history has shown with 3 td line for Tulane to handle they have played these teams : UMass -28, Alcorn -35, Nichols -38. the next biggest line they have had to face was S.Miss -12 and S.FLA -12.

I know their stud QB is back but this line is a huge jump. Maybe I am a sucker for buying in to a big line. ( I did this before, right Colorado? lol) But Oregon is way more consistant that hot Tulane year over year. The book are stretching this line too far and I will attempt to exposé the line.


KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com

UAB has scores 21+ in all their games this season ( yes they even scored 21 against Georgia. I dont know how I didnt watch the game). Tulane is going to need 42 + if that happens again.

Lastly durring this hot streak for Tulane their average line has been -3.75 in their last 23 games and covered 18 of the 23. Their lines have been reasonable. Not anymore.


UAB +21.5
Click to expand...
Just for context Tulane threw two INTs in the EZ last week vs Nicholls. I know because I had a Wave ticket lol.

Fritz may want to make a conference stamp here…I’ll see what the word around town is.
 
twinkie13 said:
Just for context Tulane threw two INTs in the EZ last week vs Nicholls. I know because I had a Wave ticket lol.

Fritz may want to make a conference stamp here…I’ll see what the word around town is.
Click to expand...
my play here is because Tulane's line keeps climbing. At these levels there are only FCS schools that Tulane is laying this many. UAB is not FCS bad.

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
I am going over 74 with CU this week.

They were expected to score last week and now this line climbs to 74. Well USC's D isnt Oregon. USC's offense is even better than Oregon.

Its an early game for CU and so far they are 2-0 in those noon kicks. They love the early games and being at home a lot of things will be helpful.

They are scoring this week and I see this the better play than chancing the +22.

USC may score 50 but surely they get 40+. How many both teams get depends on how much time the clock runs between plays. CU going to score touchdowns this week . Watch me lose my azz again this week. I am not scared but I do have a stinky residue from last week.
Click to expand...
I like this.

I hate the 10am start though.
 
Temple +3.5 LOSS
Mid Tenn +7 LOSS
NC. St. +3 TIE
Clem -7 WIN
S.Ala +3 LOSS
Buf +2.5 WIN
Colorado/ USC over 74 WIN
UAB +21.5 WIN
Louisiana Tech -1 WIN
Virg +3 TIE
E.Mich +7.5 WIN
NIL +13 WIN
Ball St.+1 LOSS
Nebraska +17 LOSS
Ark St+1 WIN
Texas -16.5 WIN
Navy -4 LOSS
ASU +13 WIN
Vandy +14 LOSS
New Mex +14 WIN

E. Carolina +3 LOSS
Troy +1.5 WIN
S. Miss +7 LOSS
Coastal Car+6.5 LOSS
Notre Dame -5.5 WIN
W. Virginia +12.5 WIN

BEST BETS=9-4-1 AND THE TIE COULD HAVE EASILY BEEN A WIN BECAUSE 3.5 WAS AVAILABLE ALMOST ALL WEEK
ALL PLAYS=14-10-2
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

carolinablue
Carolinablue Week 4 College Football
Replies
36
Views
1K
carolinablue
carolinablue
bookieassassin
WEEK 3
Replies
32
Views
2K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
WEEK 5
Replies
30
Views
2K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
WEEK 6
Replies
34
Views
2K
winners41
W
mrpickem
WEEK 6
Replies
3
Views
338
mrpickem
mrpickem
Back
Top