Rod's European Basketball (October '07)

[rod_steel]

YTD (0-0-0)

Ok not quite October yet but given the Italian A1 league has already commenced and I wanted to make 1 play in round 1 figured I'll get this thread up now.

My main focus will be both the Spanish and Italian domestic leagues and also the major European leagues being the ULEB Cup and Euroleague this season.

All plays will be between 1-5 units.

Starting off today in the Italian A1 Round 1:-

Montengrenaro +3.5 over Avellino (3)


Milano -7.5 over Napoli (2)

 

[Satyr]

GL Rod, nice to see you here. I'll join the discussions next week, letting this one go without action. :shake:

 

[rod_steel]

Montengrenaro +3.5 over Avellino (3) - WIN +2.7 units


Milano -7.5 over Napoli (2) - WIN +1.8 units

Can't complain with the start.

YTD (2-0-0) +4.5 units


Satyr :cheers:

 

[rod_steel]

Italian A1 League for Thursday night.

Roma -2 over Teramo (3)

 

[rod_steel]

A couple of bets across both Italy and Spain for Sunday. May add another depending on these two:

Italian A1 - Round 2

Scavolini +2.5 over Benneton (3)

Spanish ACB - Round 1

Bilbao +5 over Murcia (2.5)

Bilbao ML over Murcia - (+170) (0.5)

 

[rod_steel]

So far so good for Sunday, bit unlucky with the Bilbao ML as I got sunk by a buzzer beater with that one.

One more for Sunday in Italy.

Italian A1 - Round 2

Biella +11 over Bologna (3)

Will do this week's recap after the game

 

[rod_steel]

Roma -2 over Teramo (3) - LOSS -3 units


Italian A1 - Round 2

Scavolini +2.5 over Benneton (3) - WIN +2.7 units

Spanish ACB - Round 1

Bilbao +5 over Murcia (2.5) - WIN +2.25 units

Bilbao ML over Murcia - (+170) (0.5) - LOSS -0.5 units

Italian A1 - Round 2

Biella +11 over Bologna (3) - WIN +2.7 units

Week 2 (3-2-0) +4.15 units

Overall YTD (5-2-0) +8.65 units

 

[rod_steel]

A couple of bets tonight

Italian A1 - Round 3

AJ Milano -7.5 over Teramo (3)


Scafati +8.5 over Fortitudo Bologna (2)

 

[rod_steel]

A couple of bets tonight

Italian A1 - Round 3

AJ Milano -7.5 over Teramo (3) - LOSS -3 units


Scafati +8.5 over Fortitudo Bologna (2) - WIN +1.8 units

Week 3 to date (1-1-0) -1.2 units

Back later for the end of week & weekend games in both leagues.

 

[rod_steel]

A couple more tonight

Italian A1 - Round 3

Biella +5 over Rieti (3.5)


La Fortezza Bologna -1 over Avellino (3)

 

[El Mago]

hey rod.. seems like ur having a nice start.. good luck on the rest of the seaon

 

[rod_steel]

Good to see you around again El Mago :cheers:

A couple more tonight

Italian A1 - Round 3

Biella +5 over Rieti (3.5) - LOSS -3.5 units


La Fortezza Bologna -1 over Avellino (3) - WIN +2.7 units

Week 3 to date (2-2-0) -2.0 units

Will look to try and get back into the +ve for the week over the weekend with a big card of games in both the Spanish & Italian leagues to come.

 

[rod_steel]

Only one play for Saturday

Spanish ACB - Round 2


Gran Canaria +4 over Bilbao (3)

 

[rod_steel]

Big card for Sunday games across both leagues

Italian A1 - Round 4

Biella +3.5 over Roma (3)

Siena -3.5 over Upim Bologna (2)

Varese -4 over Rieti (3)

Napoli +5 over Teramo (4)


Spanish ACB - Round 2

Murcia +6.5 over Granada (4)

Fuenlabrada +7.5 over Cajasol (2)

Valladolid +12.5 over DKV Joventut (3)

Valladolid ML over DKV Joventut - (+725) (1)

 

[rod_steel]

Update after half of the card completed:

Only one play for Saturday

Spanish ACB - Round 2


Gran Canaria +4 over Bilbao (3) - LOSS -3 units


Italian A1 - Round 4

Biella +3.5 over Roma (3) - WIN +2.7 units

Siena -3.5 over Upim Bologna (2) - WIN +1.8 units

Spanish ACB - Round 2

Murcia +6.5 over Granada (4) - WIN +3.6 units

Fuenlabrada +7.5 over Cajasol (2) - WIN +1.8 units

Week 3 to date (6-3-0) +4.9 units

Last few still pending

 

[rod_steel]

Italian A1 - Round 4

Varese -4 over Rieti (3) - WIN +2.7 units

Napoli +5 over Teramo (4) - LOSS -4 units


Spanish ACB - Round 2


Valladolid +12.5 over DKV Joventut (3) - LOSS -3 units

Valladolid ML over DKV Joventut - (+725) (1) - LOSS - 1 unit

Good start to Sunday but with a bad finish.

Week 3 (7-6-0) -0.4 units

Overall YTD (12-8-0) +8.25 units

Ended up being a bit of a nothing week. Back next week with the start of the Greek season as well.

 

[rod_steel]

Midweek Spanish ball commences tonight.

Spanish ACB - Round 3

Valladolid -4.5 over Menorca (3)

Valencia +5.5 over Girona (2)

 

[shakes]

Midweek Spanish ball commences tonight.

Spanish ACB - Round 3

Valladolid -4.5 over Menorca (3)

Valencia +5.5 over Girona (2)

Nice hit with both Rod. I had Girona ML in a parlay and they certainly made it interesting in the final minutes.

 

[rod_steel]

Thanks bud, glad we could both cash on that one.

Looking at a couple of the Thursday night games, will revert back tomorrow.

 

[rod_steel]

Italian midweek commences tonight as well. Like a few tonight:

Italian A1- Round 5

Varese +6.5 over Teramo (3)

Napoli +9 over Siena (2)

Spanish ACB - Round 3

Granada +5.5 over Bilbao (3.5)

Cajasol +4.5 over Manresa (3)

 

[panos]

Good luck tonight, buddy!...Greek League starts this weekend, hope you have marked your calendar accordingly!

 

[rod_steel]

Midweek Spanish ball commences tonight.

Spanish ACB - Round 3

Valladolid -4.5 over Menorca (3) - WIN +2.7 units

Valencia +5.5 over Girona (2) - WIN +1.8 units


Italian A1- Round 5

Varese +6.5 over Teramo (3) - LOSS -3 units

Napoli +9 over Siena (2) - LOSS -2 units

Spanish ACB - Round 3

Granada +5.5 over Bilbao (3.5) - WIN +3.15 units

Cajasol +4.5 over Manresa (3) - LOSS -3 units

Week 4 to date (3-3-0) -0.35 units

Will be back for the weekend games later.

 

[hauntEd]

tough day in A1 rod! bunch of totally unexpected results..
definitely varese +6,5 was the play, too bad the choked at 39'' with a 12-0 run by teramo.
keep up the good work man!

 

[rod_steel]

Good luck tonight, buddy!...Greek League starts this weekend, hope you have marked your calendar accordingly!

lol panos what's up my friend :cheers:

Yes well aware the Greek A1 commences this weekend. I've really been reading up on the Greek league in particular over the past 2 months in readiness for today. Unfortunately a lot of the print media around the league is in Greek which makes it a bit tough but I have been able to glean quite a bit so far.

Watch out for this Australian kid who will be playing for Panionios this season by the name of Brad Newley. He was drafted by the Rockets but sent to the European scene to get more experience. He is probably Australia's next biggest thing internationally and I think Panionios have got themselves a little gem, a very legit shooting prospect. It may take him some time to settle into the European system but when he does he will be big for them IMO.

Looking forward to the Euroleague as well which starts next week as well :tiphat:

tough day in A1 rod! bunch of totally unexpected results..
definitely varese +6,5 was the play, too bad the choked at 39'' with a 12-0 run by teramo.
keep up the good work man!

What's up man. Yeah midweek was rough on the results. Again similar to the Greek league I've been doing a hell of reading about the Italian A1 as well. I also get some games here on satellite which is obviously helpful when capping.

That Varese result was a moose but expected to happen so no big deal, all swings and roundabouts as there will no doubt be mooses that come my way as well this season. I've tracked the last 3 seasons of the Italian league and have seen that the dog ML's and teams getting the points are hitting at an incredible trend hence the reason you will see me playing mostly dogs this season :cheers:

 

[rod_steel]

Still not getting anything going yet this season in Euro ball. However I will continue to be patient as it is a very long season ahead.

Moving on to the Saturday's card.

Greek A1 - Round 1

Panionios -1 over Kolossoss (4)

Spanish ACB - Round 4

Valencia -2.5 over Malaga (2.5)

 

[hauntEd]

What's up man. Yeah midweek was rough on the results. Again similar to the Greek league I've been doing a hell of reading about the Italian A1 as well. I also get some games here on satellite which is obviously helpful when capping.

That Varese result was a moose but expected to happen so no big deal, all swings and roundabouts as there will no doubt be mooses that come my way as well this season. I've tracked the last 3 seasons of the Italian league and have seen that the dog ML's and teams getting the points are hitting at an incredible trend hence the reason you will see me playing mostly dogs this season :cheers:

you're absolutely right, A1 has been just crazy in the last couple of years, expecially the very start of each seasons. lots of upsets with team expected to be in the relegation zone going 4-0 over the first 4 games and euroleague teams choking and playing like crap (treviso with dermarr johnson is 1-4 so far..)
ML dogs are real value definitely.

 

[rod_steel]

Still not getting anything going yet this season in Euro ball. However I will continue to be patient as it is a very long season ahead.

Moving on to the Saturday's card.

Greek A1 - Round 1

Panionios -1 over Kolossoss (4) - WIN +3.6 units

Spanish ACB - Round 4

Valencia -2.5 over Malaga (2.5) - WIN +2.25 units

Week 4 to date (5-3-0) +5.5 units

Back later in the day for Sunday's card.

 

[rod_steel]

Moving on to Sunday's card.

Italian A1 - Round 6

Milano +13 over Siena (3)

Biella +6 over Avellino (3)

Rieti -4 over Teramo (3.5)

Spanish ACB - Round 4

Tau -12.5 over Manresa (4)

Menorca +6.5 over DKV Joventut (3)

Estudiantes ML over Murcia - (+110) (2)

Greek A1 - Round 1

Panathinaikos -25.5 over Rethimno (3)

 

[rod_steel]

If Milano don't cover today in the early game against Siena I will promise myself never to fade Siena again this season in the Italian league. Only idiots like me fade the best team in Italy on a consistent basis.

:smiley_acbe:

 

[rod_steel]

One more add to the card

Spanish ACB - Round 4

Cajasol +5.5 over Girona (4)

 

[rod_steel]

Well Siena are currently beating Milano by 40 points deep into the 4th qtr. Serves me right.

Jesus they are so much superior than any other Italian team it is ridiculous, so balanced across the floor. I foresee some crazy lines of upwards of 20 points soon whenever these guys are playing at home.

 

[rod_steel]

Recap so far after the early games have been completed:

Italian A1 - Round 6

Milano +13 over Siena (3) - LOSS -3 units


Spanish ACB - Round 4

Tau -12.5 over Manresa (4) - LOSS -4 units

Menorca +6.5 over DKV Joventut (3) - LOSS -3 units

Estudiantes ML over Murcia - (+110) (2) - LOSS -2 units

Cajasol +5.5 over Girona (4) - WIN +3.6 units

Week 4 to date (6-7-0) -2.9 units

Clearly not a great start with the early games, hope for a recovery with the later ones! Got some work to do.

 

[t-dot]

if theres 1 guy that will do it; its you.

GL with your later games.

 

[rod_steel]

Italian A1 - Round 6

Biella +6 over Avellino (3) - WIN +2.7 units

Rieti -4 over Teramo (3.5) - WIN - +3.15 units

Greek A1 - Round 1

Panathinaikos -25.5 over Rethimno (3) - LOSS -3 units

In hindsight it was pretty stupid for me laying that many points in the first game of PAO's season as good as they are. Nonetheless able recover some of the early damage.

Week 4 (8-8-0) -0.05 units

Overall YTD (20-16-0) +8.20 units

Back for mid week Eurloeague action.

 

[rod_steel]

Euroleague Round 1 (22nd-24th October)

Note my Euroleague plays will be between 1-10 units this season.


Tuesday 22nd October 2007

Tonight marks the commencement of the Euroleague, the highest quality basketball in Europe. The game is between the Polish team Prokom Trefl Sopot and euopean giants, last year's runner's up CSKA Moscow.

Two teams in different spectrums at the moment. No question which team has the greater quality throughout their roster, CSKA Moscow have had an upgrade (if that was even possible) from last season with the new signings of Siskauskas (my pick for MVP this season), Goree and Zisis. This team goes 9 deep and have already started the Russian season in stunning form by blowing out their opposition consistently.

Prokom Trefl Sopot have undergone quite a few changes during the Euopean offseason by bringing in more experience to their roster it also automatically places them at a disadvantage in terms of building team chemistry and this has been seen based on their preseason form whereby they lost 10 of 12 games and barely won their first two games, both by a couple of buckets. Spiegel and Wolkowyski will be up against it trying to contain the CSKA frontline tonight so expect a significant rebounding advantage for the Russians.

I always like backing the European powerhouses in the opening games as they invariably like to set the tone of the competition. The fact that they play on the road doesn't bother me too much, CSKA had the best ATS record on the road last season in Euroleague and expect them to dominate from start to finish tonight.

I have CSKA just a tick behind Panathinaikos in terms of 2007/08 Euroleague favourites. They will no doubt feature in the top 4 again IMO but I'm getting ahead of myself. Tonight laying the points on the road:

CSKA Moscow -9.5 over Prokom Trefl Sopot (5)

 

[rod_steel]

I have also placed the following Euroleague futures bet, it's a big one as well:

Panathinaikos to win Group C - (+113) (8)

PAO find themselves in the toughest of the 3 groups here as it is stacked with Spanish powerhouses Real Madrid and Barcelona and a fast improving Ulker team from Turkey and the excitement machines Partizan.

However the main reason I love this bet is that PAO will have the luxury of facing both Barcelona and Real Madrid at home before having to play them in Spain in Week's 11 and 14 respectively, at which point they may have already made a break from the rest of the pack. If need be I could potentially hedge this in the final game against Real Madrid as I believe this group will be fought out between these two teams.

 

[rod_steel]

Tuesday 22nd October 2007

Tonight marks the commencement of the Euroleague, the highest quality basketball in Europe. The game is between the Polish team Prokom Trefl Sopot and euopean giants, last year's runner's up CSKA Moscow.

Two teams in different spectrums at the moment. No question which team has the greater quality throughout their roster, CSKA Moscow have had an upgrade (if that was even possible) from last season with the new signings of Siskauskas (my pick for MVP this season), Goree and Zisis. This team goes 9 deep and have already started the Russian season in stunning form by blowing out their opposition consistently.

Prokom Trefl Sopot have undergone quite a few changes during the Euopean offseason by bringing in more experience to their roster it also automatically places them at a disadvantage in terms of building team chemistry and this has been seen based on their preseason form whereby they lost 10 of 12 games and barely won their first two games, both by a couple of buckets. Spiegel and Wolkowyski will be up against it trying to contain the CSKA frontline tonight so expect a significant rebounding advantage for the Russians.

I always like backing the European powerhouses in the opening games as they invariably like to set the tone of the competition. The fact that they play on the road doesn't bother me too much, CSKA had the best ATS record on the road last season in Euroleague and expect them to dominate from start to finish tonight.

I have CSKA just a tick behind Panathinaikos in terms of 2007/08 Euroleague favourites. They will no doubt feature in the top 4 again IMO but I'm getting ahead of myself. Tonight laying the points on the road:

CSKA Moscow -9.5 over Prokom Trefl Sopot (5)

FT: CSKA Moscow 88-69

CSKA Moscow = WIN +4.5 units

Dominant performance by the early favourites and the scary thing is they will only get better as the season progresses.

 

[panos]

Good one for you, buddy, i wish i wasn't such a pussy...:smiley_acbe:

 

[rod_steel]

Wednesday 24th October 2007

Just a couple for today:

Efes Pilsen -2.5 over Cibona (5)

Forget Europe, David Blatt IMO is one of the best strategic coaches and motivators in the world and with the addition of Scoonie Penn the turkish team look a much improved side this season. Cibona although having home court advantage have had a clean out of their roster this season mainly due to financial concerns and have started the Adriatic league poorly. The loss of key players such as Kus and Wright has clearly affected their team chemistry to start the season.

Penn is a late inclusion to the Efes roster however having played for Cibona last season will not have any issues adjusting tonight.

Malaga +2 over Aris (3)

I believe this is case of the better all round team getting the points on the road. Aris' home court is always an intimidating arena to play in however I believe Malaga get them at a good time - the Greek season only commenced over the weekend whereas Malaga have had the luxury of 4 domestic games as well as taking part in the NBA live tournament which has allowed their new players such as Kus, Popovich and Haislip to get to know the system run by Scariolo.

Malaga travel today without both Sanchez and Welsch however have enough depth in their roster to cover for both of them. The battle of the backcourt will most likely decide this game and given the defensive prowess of both Popovich and Cabezas Malaga are well positioned to mitigate the influence of Terrell Castle who runs Aris' offense.

 

[t-dot]

I got Efes yesterday at -1.

I wanted Siena at -14, but thought the number would drop. Its -15.5 now.

Any thoughts on Siena?

 

[rod_steel]

I got Efes yesterday at -1.

I wanted Siena at -14, but thought the number would drop. Its -15.5 now.

Any thoughts on Siena?

I'm going to stay away from those double digit favourite lines for the moment in Euroleague. Whilst Siena have basically had their way in the Italian A1 so far I think a lot of those margins have been severely inflated by virtue of the fact that the other Italian teams have regressed this season.

Siena will be motivated to perform well given their re-entrance into the Euroleague, but at the same time the pressure will be there on them to start their European campaign well after the disaster of their ULEB finish last season.

No bet for me.

 

[Satyr]

Hey Rod, I agree with your Efes preview. I've seen Cibona live a few times this season and they definitely don't impress me, at least not yet. The bookies are giving them credit for stingy play at home over the years, but in reality I can't see them winning tonight.

Efes for me as well, 5 units


GL.

 

[shakes]

Yikes. Not a good 3rd quarter from Efes. Come on guys!

 

[shakes]

Leading in every stat except they've turned the ball over and missed free throws down the stretch. Oh well. Still 2 more minutes, down 4.

 

[rod_steel]

Wednesday 24th October 2007

Just a couple for today:

Efes Pilsen -2.5 over Cibona (5)

Forget Europe, David Blatt IMO is one of the best strategic coaches and motivators in the world and with the addition of Scoonie Penn the turkish team look a much improved side this season. Cibona although having home court advantage have had a clean out of their roster this season mainly due to financial concerns and have started the Adriatic league poorly. The loss of key players such as Kus and Wright has clearly affected their team chemistry to start the season.

Penn is a late inclusion to the Efes roster however having played for Cibona last season will not have any issues adjusting tonight.

Malaga +2 over Aris (3)

I believe this is case of the better all round team getting the points on the road. Aris' home court is always an intimidating arena to play in however I believe Malaga get them at a good time - the Greek season only commenced over the weekend whereas Malaga have had the luxury of 4 domestic games as well as taking part in the NBA live tournament which has allowed their new players such as Kus, Popovich and Haislip to get to know the system run by Scariolo.

Malaga travel today without both Sanchez and Welsch however have enough depth in their roster to cover for both of them. The battle of the backcourt will most likely decide this game and given the defensive prowess of both Popovich and Cabezas Malaga are well positioned to mitigate the influence of Terrell Castle who runs Aris' offense.

FT: Cibona 93-85 = LOSS -5 units

FT: Aris 87-83 = LOSS - 3 units

Whilst both teams were in leading positions in teh 3rd qtr, more disappointed in the Efes loss given they had a DD lead midway through the 3rd qtr but such is the beauty of Euro ball that no lead is ever safe.

Back later for friday's card.

 

[rod_steel]

Thursday 25th October 2007

Sorry no time for writeups today. My card is as follows

Real Madrid -4 over Ulker (5)

Tau Ceramica +6 over Olympiakos (3)

Lietuvos +2.5 over Milano (3)

 

[t-dot]

GL, most likely on Madrid with ya.

 

[greenmonster]

rod,

fyi, some injuries to consider:

TAU - Jasaitis (urine infection, of all things), Singleton, Johnson OUT for the game.
McDonald has problems at home and will try to make it to the game from the US directly to Athens.

Madrid - team captain Felipe Reyes

 

[rod_steel]

rod,

fyi, some injuries to consider:

TAU - Jasaitis (urine infection, of all things), Singleton, Johnson OUT for the game.
McDonald has problems at home and will try to make it to the game from the US directly to Athens.

Madrid - team captain Felipe Reyes

Yep already noted :shake:

 

[greenmonster]

I think R.Madrid are vastly improved this year, and while istanbul is a tough place to play in, i think Real have enough to win & cover. (they might even have enough to - possibly - make the final four this year)

As for Tau playing in greece... yet to see how the new olympiakos will gel with all the new imports (tsakalidis, qyntel w., greer, seibutis, etc.). they even tried to sign c.webb the other day. but man... only +6 in that stadium?

and where' them preseason nba picks rod?? no warmup necessary? lol.

GL brother.