Rocket Mortgage

DaddyMcIlhon

DaddyMcIlhon

Pretty much a regular
Never thought I’d see Bryson at 6-1 in any pga tournament. He should probably win this though. I think he has 5 or 6 straight top 8 finishes.

As for the course, I think it’s only the second time they have played here and the first time they annihilated it. Look for even more low scores this week.

Pretty weak field in general. Especially compared to the first three back. I was hoping to get Reed at 20. Might wait it out because I doubt his number drops. Other early looks for me are Im, Finau and English. Also Hovland. Odds below:

Bryson DeChambeau +650
Webb Simpson +1200
Hideki Matsuyama +1400
Tyrrell Hatton +1400
Patrick Reed +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Sungjae Im +2000
Rickie Fowler +2700
Tony Finau +2900
Kevin Na +3100
Bubba Watson +3400
Scottie Scheffler +3400
Rory Sabbatini +4000
Doc Redman +4000
Brandt Snedeker +4200
J.T. Poston +4200
Harris English +4200
Jason Day +4500
Brendon Todd +5000
Lucas Glover +5000
 
Thanks for getting this started.

I was telling @HUNT that I heard that the PGA asked them to grow out the rough (at the minimum) this year to make this a little harder.

I'm not a huge fan of this course for us getting back in the PGA rotation to be honest.

Weather been basically 3 rains in 3 weeks and will be 88-90 all week and dry up here.

Not shocked by Bryson price. You have to in all honesty.
 
We know he's a bomber, but his SG Off the Tee is 57%~ higher than the 2nd guy in this field (Bubba), And correct me if I'm wrong, but he's been better since the tour has came back, so maybe that gap increases further over time (as that stat is measuring his 38 rounds this year, not just his last 12).

It is just one stat, but the gap between him (1st) and Bubba (2nd), is the same as Bubba, and R. Moore (20th)
 
I wonder how many Bryson is playing in a row.

Fatigue has to set in at some point. With that being said, he hits it so far right now where the 5s are all 4s and he has wedges into most of the par 4s that he would have to putt horrible to be outside the top 25.
 
Any of you all a member at golf stats?

GolfStats Memberships

www.golfstats.com www.golfstats.com

Back in the day golfobserver had a free data dump of players history on each course. Obviously that plays a role when setting lines and the bookies have that same data.
 
Also, does anyone have a link for stats from the prior week (for example greens in regulation)?

CBSSportsline use to have that info but i dont see it now.
 
crawdads said:
Also, does anyone have a link for stats from the prior week (for example greens in regulation)?

CBSSportsline use to have that info but i dont see it now.
Click to expand...

Golf Stat and Records | PGA TOUR

PGA TOUR Stats
www.pgatour.com www.pgatour.com

Probably not the cleanest site, but it has a ton of info.

Drill into a category (next to overview), Ie. Off the Tee, then select SG:Tee to Green (or whichever), then under the dropdown choices, you can change "Time Period" to "Tournament Only", the prior tourney will already be defaulted (traveler's)
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
I love Finau but he doesn’t win. I could see him stealing a major someday or something randomly but I think he finishes with less than 5 career wins.
Click to expand...

I’m starting to talk myself into Finau lol. I think he has what.. 1 career win opposite field? I could see him winning one like this, with a much weaker field, to help get closer to that 5. Considering it now at 28-1.
 
B.A.R. said:
I love gambling dreams, it works out sometimes

Let's get it!
Click to expand...

How do you feel about your boy Hovland this week? He has finished better and better 4 weeks in a row. Had his best tournament putting here statistically last year. He lead the field in strokes gained T2G last week. He makes birdies and eagles in bunches which will be needed here. T13 last year.

Talk you into it yet? I’m getting close..
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
How do you feel about your boy Hovland this week? He has finished better and better 4 weeks in a row. Had his best tournament putting here statistically last year. He lead the field in strokes gained T2G last week. He makes birdies and eagles in bunches which will be needed here. T13 last year.

Talk you into it yet? I’m getting close..
Click to expand...
I like him a lot.

I am hoping to catch a better price live.

My prices right now aren't great.
 
If memory serves correct Finau Driving Accuracy number is fairly poor......I think that is a big metric this week especially if the rough is bad
 
aplous said:
If memory serves correct Finau Driving Accuracy number is fairly poor......I think that is a big metric this week especially if the rough is bad
Click to expand...
I'm gonna try and get more info on the rough.

I wish I saved that tidbit about them wanting it grown out.

Gonna be hot n fast this week, that is for sure.
 
Not sure if anyone liked this last week, but did 6 categories - SGApp - Birdie or Better % - SG OTTee - SG ATGreen - Bogey Avoidance - SG Putting.

1593533789395.png

Does anyone have info on specific putting data? Like on Poa/Bent/Etc.?
 
B.A.R. said:
I'm gonna try and get more info on the rough.

I wish I saved that tidbit about them wanting it grown out.

Gonna be hot n fast this week, that is for sure.
Click to expand...

I also heard on a podcast that the rough will be up from last year. Apparently PGA asked them to do it because the scores were so low.
 
Treading lightly this week with my pre-tourney bets after giving over $500 back to the house this past weekend. I will look for value post Round 1. I only have two bets in so far...

100/1 Will Gordon and 150/1 Sam Burns

Others I'm looking at:

Hatton
Reed
Scheffler
Redman
Sabbatini
HV3
Glover
Wolff
 
geauxgolfer said:
Treading lightly this week with my pre-tourney bets after giving over $500 back to the house this past weekend. I will look for value post Round 1. I only have two bets in so far...

100/1 Will Gordon and 150/1 Sam Burns

Others I'm looking at:

Hatton
Reed
Scheffler
Redman
Sabbatini
HV3
Glover
Wolff
Click to expand...

GL

I know @HUNT will love seeing that Will Gordon bet.
 
pre tourney bets...

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Viktor Hovland +1,600

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Tony Finau +2,200 ...bar recommendation

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Doc Redman +2,400

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Rickie Fowler +2,800

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Brandt Snedeker +4,000

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Will Gordon +10,000
 
aplous said:
Nope, Bryson birdied 17 and was tied with 5-6 guys at T5. Then Na birdied 18 to leap them all into solo 5th. Bryson and the others finished T6.
Click to expand...

Didn’t he hit his 3rd shot in the water on the par 5? I guess my point is he should’ve finished higher.
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
Anyone play DK in here? Good values this weekend?
Click to expand...

Matsuyama/Hatton are my big hitters, a smidge of bryson/simpson because I dont want to miss out, but im definitely underweight.

I like bezuoidhout (Sp?), his price isnt really sleeper though, maybe hadley/munoz/gordon/mcnealy
 
ScopeY said:
Matsuyama/Hatton are my big hitters, a smidge of bryson/simpson because I dont want to miss out, but im definitely underweight.

I like bezuoidhout (Sp?), his price isnt really sleeper though, maybe hadley/munoz/gordon/mcnealy
Click to expand...

I’m on Hadley. And Wolff.
 
ScopeY said:
Matsuyama/Hatton are my big hitters, a smidge of bryson/simpson because I dont want to miss out, but im definitely underweight.

I like bezuoidhout (Sp?), his price isnt really sleeper though, maybe hadley/munoz/gordon/mcnealy
Click to expand...

I like Matsu bc nobody will be on him after his missed cut. Still not playing him but probably should be. Hatton I’m fading at that price. Love him because I had him when he won, but I’d rather have Reed for the same price.
 
Full tournament

Scott Stallings -112 over Kyle Stanley
Erik van Rooyen -106 over Rafa Cabrera-Bello

First Round H2H

Tyler Duncan -129 over Pat Perez
Bryson -167 over Matsuyama
Bubba -136 over Todd

First Round 3 Ball

Hudson Swafford +150 over Potter Jr. and Luke Donald
 
HUNT said:
pre tourney bets...

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Viktor Hovland +1,600

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Tony Finau +2,200 ...bar recommendation

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Doc Redman +2,400

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Rickie Fowler +2,800

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Brandt Snedeker +4,000

Rocket Mortgage Classic - Will Gordon +10,000
Click to expand...

Let's ride homie. Got some good odds on all of those. 18, 30, 40, 33, 45, and 90 respectively.
 
Final full tourney card:

Hovland $50 at 21-1 to win $1057.
Finau $54 at 28-1 to win $1512.
Na $58 at 33-1 to win $1914.

Also playing 6 DK lineups. Pretty much went stars and scrubs this week. Didn’t like much of the $8k and $7k range.

Also doing something new. I’m betting the featured group pairings for round 1 since I know I’m gonna be around today and watching. Small on the four matchups but something to keep my attention:

Hatton $30 to win $42 at +140.
Group: Hatton, SungJae, Snedeker.

Simpson $30 to win $33 at +110.
Group: Simpson, Rickie, Lashley.

Reed $20 to win $40 at +200.
Group: Reed, Bryson, Hideki.

Todd $20 to win $39 at +195.
Group: Watson, Day, Todd.

Of those 4 I probably like the Todd bet the most and then the Webb bet. Webb should handle that group and Todd playing better than Day, Watson (who are pretty erratic anyway).

Will consider live bets along the way as usual.

Good luck everyone.
 
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