Road to the Kentucky Derby

Race 5: #7 Thundergram cuts back in distance and class here, my question is how much did the Arkansas Derby last time out take out of him. #2 Twang Clairborne Farm, Al Stall, and Joel Rosrio probably needed the last of a 9 month layoff expect much improved effor here and will be my top choice. #9 Jessica's Star compromised at the start last time out but kept on to finish a nice second, like the cutback here and the switch to dirt. #11 Sulrty Cat first time against winners but has won at the tricky 7F and really took to the track with an impressive work last week.

2,9/2,7,9,11 ex and tri
 
Race 6: #9 Centre Court is 3-3 over the Churchill turf and 2-3 at the mile distance. Tired in last and should appreciate the slight cutback. #7 Ready Signal takes a step up in class after winning a couple of non-graded stakes down in Gulfstream, seems fit and ready for this spot. #3 Miz Ida off a layoff but nice work tab to get ready for this including a 6F work on the this turf which she finished the last 1/4 in 22 flat. #1 Tapicat hasn't won outside of Florida but has shown ability and has shown some more zip in the mornings.

Tri 9,7/1,3,7,9
Ex Box 3,7,9
 
Race 8: #5 Global View switch back to preferred surface and like the bullet 3F blowout and the turf work before that. #10 Picozza also switches back to turf here, Pletcher and Velazquez. #11 Woodfield Springs out of the same race of the other 2, finished 1/2 length behind Picozza but 9-1 instead of 7-2
 
#2 Clearly Now, 2nd off a layoff and should get a nice trip, top pick. #4 Sahara Sky is always dangerous. #9 Central Banker looks to bounce back off last and showed some real speed over this track the other morning in a bullet work out. #11 Shakin it Up might be able to make a wide sweeping move and power down the middle of the track.

ex/tri 2/4,9,11

for half as much ex/tri 4/2,9,11
 
Top 2 choices in Derby are #15 Tapiture and #16 Intense Holiday. #5 California Chrome is a deserved favorite but not deserving of 5/2, will use mainly in some saver bets but really trying to beat him, hoping he doesn't break well and gets pinched back into trouble which historically he has not really liked. Secondary horses I will be using are #4 Danza, #12 Dance with Fate, #14 Medal Count, #17 Commanding Curve. Will sprinkle the following horses in as well, #5 Samraat, #19 Ride on Curlin, #20 Wicked Strong.

So only using half the field in one way or another, hoping for a price with an exacta, tri or super
 
I just never use the favorite in the exactas I do at the derby ... had 6 12 14 boxed which obviously lost
 
I give all the credit to Gamehunter. followed his recommendations almost to the letter based on the write-ups of all the horses in his thread. I think his analysis was terrific on the whole.

Mad mad props to Gamehunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Order of finish

Chrome
Curve
Danza
Wicked
Samraat
Dance with Fate
R O Curlin
Medal
Chitu
We Miss Artie
Arod
Intense Holiday
Candy Boy
Uncle Sigh
Tapiture
Harry's Hol
Vince
Wildcat Red
Vicar
 
P-Unit said:
I give all the credit to Gamehunter. followed his recommendations almost to the letter based on the write-ups of all the horses in his thread. I think his analysis was terrific on the whole.

Mad mad props to Gamehunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

ya that was a good thread.
 
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