Road to the Kentucky Derby

[Gandolf]

Cal Chrome just might, might be a freak. Rated easily in 2nd this time then exploded away. Banged around a bit at the start too and it had little effect. Clear favorite in 4 weeks.

A little less early speed in the Derby now with Wicked Strong is in the field instead of Social Inclusion (most likely).

At Calder, they tried rating Ring Weekend in their Derby (remember he wired at Tampa), then as he was about to move heading into the stretch he got bumped by the leader going wide and was basically shut down through the stretch. Minor fail.

 

[Gandolf]

Update standings sorted by positioning and running style:

Went to lead

Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 120 $760,000 - Wire to wire in La Derby, maintained lead in stretch.
Ring Weekend H. Graham Motion 50 $260,000 - Wire to wire win in Tampa Derby, lost about a length off lead in stretch. Tried to rate 2nd in the Calder Derby, got bumped entering the stretch and faded.
Chitu Bob Baffert 54 $440,000 - Battled for lead throughout, pulled away latein Sunland.
Wildcat Red Jose Garrofalo 90 $665,500 - Went to lead in FL Derby, caught late.
Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 24 $180,000 - Went to lead in Gotham, caught late. Got caught wide and shuffled back in the Wood, never was a factor but passed others late for fifth.
Albano Larry Jones 34 $190,000 - Went to lead in Risen Star, caught late. Rated about 4 lengths back in La Derby, flattened in stretch.

Close to lead (1-2 lengths)

California Chrome Art Sherman 150 $782,250 - Rated about a length of the lead in Santa Anita Derby, moved on turn and exploded away.
Samraat Rick Violette Jr. 100 $650,500 - Rated about a length off the lead, moved on turn, dueled in stretch to win Gotham. Rated a couple of lengths back in the Wood, made his move at the top of the stretch and was moving forward but was outfinished by Wicked Strong.
Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 95 $576,000 - Rated about a length off the lead, went 4 wide into stretch and outfinished rest in Rebel. Sat about 3 lengths back in Santa Anita Derby, closed well in stretch but was no match for California Chrome.
Toast of New York Jamie Osborne 100 $1,200,000 - Rated near front in UAE Derby (dirt ability in question)
Constitution Todd Pletcher 100 $600,000 - Rated about 2 lengths back in FL Derby, won late.
Tapiture Steve Asmussen 42 $420,738 - Rated 2 lengths off lead, moved on turn and dueled in stretch to a close loss in Rebel.
General ARod Mike Maker 40 $240,000 - Rated 1/2 length off lead in FL Derby, flattened in stretch.
Midnight Hawk Bob Baffert 52 $320,500 - Rated 1-2 lengths off lead, made nice move on turn then flattened in stretch at Sunland.


Rating 3 or more lengths back

We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 60 $544,000 - Rated 3-4 lengths back in Spiral, closed in stretch to win late (dirt ability in question)
Wicked Strong James Jerkens 102 $640,000 - Rated 3-4 lengths back in Wood, closed well in stretch to win going away.
Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 93 $527,500 - Rated 2-3 lengths back in La Derby, flattened in stretch.
Cairo Prince Kiaran McLaughlin 24 $520,000 - Rated about 3 lengths back in FL Derby, flattened in stretch.

 

[Gandolf]

Albano and his 34 points are now off the derby trail, and Toast of New York is not coming across the pond, so two spots just opened up in the starting gate for Derby 140. Connections for bubble horses Candy Boy (30 points), Cairo Prince (24) and Uncle Sigh (24) will be watching the results of the two 100 point preps very closely.

 

[Gandolf]

Arkansas Derby Preview - We're down to the last two major preps this weekend, and they both figure to be good races as the boutique tracks get their turn. First, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn:

FRONT RUNNERS

8 Bayern - Baffert (aka The King of Oaklawn) brings this one in for his third race, all with HOF Gary Stevens aboard. Has not run since February, where he simply crushed a small allowance field featuring Tap It Rich. Won his maiden voyage in January, beating Rprettyboyfloyd, who finished behind the big 3 at the SA Derby last week. Neither race was run at a particularly fast pace though. They're hoping he's the new Bodemeister, the layoff is a concern, along with this being his first time around two turns, but it is Baffert. Needs to be respected.

2 Knock Em Flat - Broke his maiden on his fifth try two weeks ago, now Von Hemel throws him onto the big stage. Has run better since stretching out to two turns, but classwise he's in over his head. Could make Bayern work a bit earlier than he wants too though.

9 Strong Mandate - Could be a stalker but he's gone to the front in two of his last three efforts under Rosario. Now gets Saez returning, so they'll probably try to sit him just behind the first two. Has run 4th, 2nd and 3rd in three graded stakes 2 turn races, all within 2-4 lengths of the winner, so he always seems to be around. Not sure switching from Rosario to Saez will make up the difference, but this is his 3rd race of the winter layoff and he's been showing improvement. Should figure into the exotics picture.

STALKERS

4 Ride On Curlin - Ran a close 3rd in the Rebel after running a tiring 3rd in the Southwest. Small barn connections here running against a lot of the big boys. Kind of think we saw his best shot in the Rebel. His two turn graded stakes races have seen him finish 3rd, 3rd and 4th, while his two wins were both sprints. Will be against.

3 Tapiture - The 9/5 favorite, was nipped in the Rebel by Hoppertunity after scoring impressive wins in the Rebel and Kentucky Jockey Club in his last two starts. Gets a jockey upgrade with Rosario taking over. Has run well on fast and off tracks, so no reason to think he won't be right there at the end. Must use.

5 Thundergram - Was an 0 for 4 maiden on fast tracks before winning on a sloppy Oaklawn course in January, then followed it up with a close 2nd on a muddy track optional claimer last month. Might be worth moving up if the weather turns, but otherwise appears to be in over his head.

MID PACK TYPES

1 Danza - Returned in a 7 furlong race in March after running a fast finishing 3rd in the Saratoga Special last August behind Corfu and Wired Bryan. First try at two turns, seems like Pletcher is giving him a shot at this "just in case", or is sending him out to keep the pace honest for his other entry, Commissioner. Would be a huge surprise.

CLOSERS

6 Commissioner - Got off to a slow start at Sunland before finishing strong to take 3rd behind Chitu and Midnight Hawk. Mike Smith finds himself aboard for the first time, which is interesting. Finally gets to show what he can do at a track that might be more to off the pace types, and should see a pretty good pace here to run at. His final 1/8th was sub-13 seconds at Sunland, so if Smith can keep him a little closer to the lead while conserving some energy, he could be in the picture late.

7 Conquest Titan - Finished fourth as the favorite in Tampa, running fairly evenly. Was the favorite based on his prior closing 2nd place finish to Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull. Gets Borel so he'll no doubt get a ground saving trip. This is his seventh different track in seven races, so he's kept a lot of good company. His speed figures require a bit of a leap forward here to be competitive. Could pick off a piece of the exotics.


To me this race comes down to whether either of the new shooters in Bayern and Commissioner beat the local horse Tapiture, who's basically shown his superiority to Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin already. For Bayern to win he'll need to be a bit of a freak. Commissioner will need to see some pace to run at. I'll be using all 3 in the multi-race wagers.

 

[Gandolf]

Such a huge field in the Blue Grass I need to start by knocking out a few horses first.

First out is any horse that has never run on poly AND did not have a recent work at Keeneland: That eliminates the 10 So Lonesome, 12 Vinceremos and 14 Gala Award.

Next out is any horse that has not finished in the top 4 in a graded stake: 2 Extrasexyhipster and 6 Coltimus Prime.

At this point in the season I think you can also throw out any horse stretching out past a mile for the first time, as you're going to need some bottom to win this one: 3 Pablo Delmonte.

We're left with a field of eight: 1 Early horse, 6 Early Pressers and 1 Presser. The early horse #4 Harry's Holiday, ran a game 2nd in the Spiral. He figures to be challenged up front by the favorite #5, Bobby's Kitten, who's been well thought of since winning the Grade 3 Pilgrim as a 2 year old. Bobby's Kitten had a sharp workout last week at Keeneland and should have no trouble getting over the poly. The difficulty with both horses is that it's been tough to win on the front end this week and there should be plenty of pace thoughout.

One of those who might also be up with the leaders is #1 Asserting Bear, who got shuffled back in the Spiral and closed well to finish fourth, but has shown a winning style where he's closer to the front. From the 1 hole new jockey Emma Jane Wilson is in a bit of trouble as she either sends him early and risks burning him out or watches him get shuffled back and left with too much to do late.

At this point we're left with 5 who figure to sit the best trips off the pace and have a shot to rally in the stretch:

#13 Medal Count - Dale Romans runs this one back just 8 days after winning the Grade 3 Transylvania. I like this angle. One thing I've learned about the Preakness, run two weeks after the Derby, is that the Derby horses always have a fitness edge. Medal Count had 5 weeks rest after the Fountain of Youth, where faded to fifth, so he should have something left in the tank today. Ran a pretty good 24&4 final quarter in his last.

#11 Coastline - Was right there in the photo in the Spiral after stalking from a couple of lengths back. Final 1/8th in that race was an OK 12&3. His style has seen him winning win sitting right up on the pace, so I'm not sure he'll like being shuffled back a few lengths. But of the 3 best efforts in his career, two were on poly and the third was at Churchill, so he's worth rooting for.

#7 Casiguapo - Has some back class based on a 2nd at the Grade 1 Hopeful and an OK effort in the Grade 1 Champagne as a 2YO, but both of those were 1 turn races. His sole two turn effort was a 2nd in the Delta Jackpot, where he stalked pretty close to the pace, and his lone win was a wire job in a sprint. So while he didn't merit an auto toss I just don't a scenario that puts him in front in this race.

#9 Big Bazinga - Interesting candidate, closed to within 2 1/2 lengths of the winner in the Spiral. Before that was a bit rank early in a two turn turf race and closed from 4 lengths back in the stretch to lose by a neck. So he might show a pretty good turn of foot late today. He also has backclass, finishing 2nd in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine last year. You're going to get a price on this one and he needs to step up his game a bit, but there's scenario's where he could be right there late.

#8 Dance with Fate - Nipped by Tamarando in the Grade 3 El Camino, has seen a 2 month freshening since. Showed excellent turn of foot in a 1 mile turf effort at Santa Anita before that, and for back class he terrific closing ability to just miss winning the Grade 1 Delmar Futurity last year. Was also 2nd in the Grade 1 Front Runner going two turns. He's got a bottom, he's got class, and he's got a closing kick. This race should fit him well.

My top 4 for the multis and exotics are

#8 - race should set up for him
#5 - he might be the freak he's expected to be
#13 - should have a fitness edge
#9 - long shot who fits this race well

 

[Gandolf]

Cairo Prince holds onto the 20th spot...Pletcher with 4, Baffert with 3 in the gate as of now.

1 California Chrome (A. Sherman/V. Espinoza) 150
2 Vicar's in Trouble (M. Maker/R. Napravnik) 120
3 Dance With Fate (P. Eurton/C. Nakatani) 108 (connections unsure about entering Derby)
4 Wicked Strong (J. Jerkens/R. Maragh) 102
5 Samraat (R. Violette Jr./J. Ortiz) 100
6 Danza (T. Pletcher/J. Bravo) 100
7 Constitution (T. Pletcher/J. Castellano) 100
8 Hoppertunity (B. Baffert/M. Smith) 95
9 Intense Holiday (T. Pletcher/M. Smith) 93
10 Wildcat Red (J. Garrofalo/J. Velasquez-L. Saez) 90
11 We Miss Artie (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 60
12 Ride on Curlin (W. GowanJ. Court) 55
13 Chitu (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 54
14 Tapiture (S. Asmussen/J. Rosario) 52
15 Midnight Hawk (B. Baffert/M. Smith) 52
16 Ring Weekend (G. Motion/A. Garcia) 50
17 General a Rod (M. Maker) 40
18 Medal Count (D. Romans/R. Albarado) 40
19 Candy Boy (J. Sadler) 30
20 Cairo Prince (K. McLaughlin) 24
-------------------------
21 Uncle Sigh (G. Contessa) 24
22 Harry's Holiday (M. Maker) 20
23 Commanding Curve (D. Stewart) 20
24 Pablo Del Monte 20 (W. Ward) 20
25 Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua) 20

 

[Gandolf]

Not as much early pace signed on as originally expected at this point with front runners Uncle Sigh, Social Inclusion, Harry's Holiday and Pablo all sitting on the outside. Vicar, Wildcat Red, Chitu, maybe Ring Weekend, the rest fall in the range of stalkers to mid-pack closers.

 

[Gandolf]

My first pass at prospective odds on the race. If I recall they don't like handing out odds of greater than 30-1.

[TABLE="width: 204"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]California Chrome [/TD]
[TD]3-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wicked Strong [/TD]
[TD]5-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Constitution [/TD]
[TD]8-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hoppertunity [/TD]
[TD]10-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tapiture [/TD]
[TD]10-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vicar's in Trouble [/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dance With Fate [/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Intense Holiday [/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wildcat Red [/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chitu [/TD]
[TD]15-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Samraat [/TD]
[TD]15-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cairo Prince [/TD]
[TD]15-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Danza [/TD]
[TD]15-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ride on Curlin [/TD]
[TD]20-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]General a Rod [/TD]
[TD]20-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Medal Count [/TD]
[TD]25-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Candy Boy [/TD]
[TD]25-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Midnight Hawk [/TD]
[TD]25-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]We Miss Artie [/TD]
[TD]30-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ring Weekend [/TD]
[TD]30-1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody><colgroup><col><col></colgroup>[/TABLE]

 

[Gandolf]

Danza beyer comes in at 102. Had to be the shortest 9 furlong ride in history as he rode the rail from start to finish.

Dance With Fate had a more pedestrian 97, but on a wider trip. I'm guessing that Thorograph and Sheets have these two with numbers that are about the same and something behind California Chrome's recent numbers.

Just on a general note by area, a Cal horse came into Keeneland and won the Blue Grass, another Cal horse came into Arkansas and won the Rebel, a 3rd Cal horse won at Sunland. A NY horse came into Arkansas and won the Derby. A competitive Florida horse (Commissioner) went to both Sunland and Arkansas and got beat, while another competitive Florida horse (Social Inclusion) went to NY and got beat.

Just in general it looks like there's strength in the Cal & NY groups over Florida and Arkansas, with Louisiana a little bit of a wildcard.

 

[BLaverty]

Gonna be all over California Chrome... weaker field then normal and he is just a ridiculous horse. No one is beating him and will be looking to bet that he wins the Triple Crown if I can find a specific bet for him.

Odds from Heritage:


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[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TrtTableTitle, bgcolor: #FFFFFF, colspan: 4"]Odds to win the 2014 Kentucky Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824000 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] California Chrome [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+300​

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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824001 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Cairo Prince [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+1200​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824002 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Constitution [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+1000​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824003 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Hoppertunity [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+1100​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824004 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Samraat [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+1450​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824005 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Tapiture [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+950​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824006 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Intense Holiday [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+1550​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824007 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Candy Boy [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+1550​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824008 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Social Inclusion [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+1500​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824009 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Strong Mandate [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+1500​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824010 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Chitu [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+2000​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824011 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Bayern [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+2000​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824012 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Wildcat Red [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+1800​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824013 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Bobby's Kitten [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+2500​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824014 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] General A Rod [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+3000​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824015 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Ride On Curlin [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+2000​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824016 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Midnight Hawk [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+2300​

[/TD]
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[/TD]
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[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824017 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] We Miss Artie [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+3000​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]<input id="editx" name="C_17" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824018 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Wicked Strong [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+1500​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]<input id="editx" name="C_18" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824019 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Commissioner [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+3200​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]<input id="editx" name="C_19" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824020 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Commanding Curve [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+3200​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]<input id="editx" name="C_20" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824021 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Conquest Titan [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+3800​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]<input id="editx" name="C_21" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824022 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Ring Weekend [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+3800​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]<input id="editx" name="C_22" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824023 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Vinceremos [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+3800​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]<input id="editx" name="C_23" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824024 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Vicar's In Trouble [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+2500​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]<input id="editx" name="C_24" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824025 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Harry's Holiday [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+4000​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]<input id="editx" name="C_25" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824026 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Coastline [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+5500​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]<input id="editx" name="C_26" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824027 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Albano [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+4000​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]<input id="editx" name="C_27" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824028 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Danza [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+2000​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]<input id="editx" name="C_28" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824029 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Uncle Sigh [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+6500​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]<input id="editx" name="C_29" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824030 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Mr Speaker [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+7500​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]<input id="editx" name="C_30" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]824031 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Medal Count [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+7500​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]<input id="editx" name="C_31" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]824032 [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] Gala Award [/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

+8500​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TroOdd TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]<input id="editx" name="C_32" size="4" maxlength="5" style="width: 40px; border: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); margin: 0px 5px 4px 0px;">
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]842033 [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"] Field (Any Other Horse) [/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]

+250​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TreEven TxnNormalSmall TblTableDescrip, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Gandolf]

I haven't settled on CC yet, but he's in the mix. I can tell you five that I'm confident won't win (a couple may be surprising):

Constitution - it's 138 to 1 against horses in the Derby that didn't race as a 2 year old, with the only exception occurring in 1882. Florida Derby or not, no way I'm going to buck that trend.

Hoppertunity - see Constitution. I wouldn't rule these two out of the exotics though. The next three I don't see myself using at all.

Ring Weekend - Only two geldings have won since 1929, but they were fairly recent, Funny Cide and Mine That Bird. What seals the deal is this horse's awful performances in the stretch. In his 7 lifetime starts he has lost at least 1 length every time but once, and in that race he was leading and got beaten by half a length. So he loses ground every time. Not a good characteristic for Churchill's long stretch.

We Miss Artie - First off, he's slow. His best speed rating (BRIS) ranks the lowest of all 20 current starters. Second, he's been lousy in his 3 dirt races, finishing 8th in the Fountain of Youth, 7th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, and losing by 6 lengths in a 5 furlong maiden against a horse that never won again. Third, John Velazquez, a pretty good judge of racing talent, has piloted him to all 3 of his wins, including two graded stakes wins on poly, and he's still going with Intense Holiday.

Ride On Curlin - Another poor finisher, he lost over a length in the stretch of the G1 Ark Derby, over a length in the G2 Rebel, 5 lengths in the G3 Southwest and 2 lengths in the Street Sense. His best efforts were all in one turn races, 3 of 4 being sprints, the other a flat mile. He's got Curlin in his name, and he's getting Borel back onboard too, which means he'll likely be overbet.

 

[Gandolf]

Constitution has been ruled out of the Derby by trainer Todd Pletcher. Uncle Sigh moves into that 20th spot. Add him to my list of non-winners. He's shown he needs the lead to excel and in this field he's not going to get it.

 

[Gandolf]

Midnight Hawk scheduled to run this weekend in the Illinois Derby, which would make a quick turnaround to Churchill unlikely.

That would put Vinceremos in and Harry's Holiday on deck.

 

[Gandolf]

Cairo Prince out now. That's two horses out now that figured to take a lot of money.

 

[Gandolf]

Baffert respotting his horses one by one. Now Chitu is being entered in the Derby Trial. His defection would bring Commanding Curve into the field, a plodder type who fits the mold of a horse clunking up into 3rd or 4th like Make Music For Me.

 

[P-Unit]

watched some tape on CC this weekend. Lots to like there. Def will be the fave. He pulls like a freight train. That Santa Anita race was impressive. In fact, every race I saw was impressive. Jockey has to hold him back early as he likes to be in the front, and the late closing stamina he has should allow him to hit the ticket in the Derby.

 

[Gandolf]

Very useful horse-by-horse bios/analysis from Doug Salvatore, waiting to see part 3:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlo...analysis-of-derby-contenders-part-1-of-3.aspx

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlo...analysis-of-derby-contenders-part-2-of-3.aspx

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Looks like another horse is out of the Derby:

GrahamMotion ‏@GrahamMotion <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(187, 187, 187);"> now</small>
Ring Weekend spiked a temp this morning of over 102 & bloodwork confirms an infection. Sadly he will not be able to take part in Ky Derby.

This should put Commanding Curve into the Derby

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Link to videos of morning works:

http://www.hrtv.com/videos/derby-workout-intense-holiday-and-we-miss-artie-42714/

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Untapable draws the outside in the Oaks:

140th KENTUCKY OAKS FIELD
[TABLE="width: 600"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Post[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]ML[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1[/TD]
[TD]Please Explain[/TD]
[TD] 50-1[/TD]
[TD]Jose Lezcano[/TD]
[TD]Tom Proctor[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2[/TD]
[TD]Ria Antonia[/TD]
[TD] 10-1[/TD]
[TD]Mike Smith[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3[/TD]
[TD]Sugar Shock[/TD]
[TD] 12-1[/TD]
[TD]Calvin Borel[/TD]
[TD]Doug Anderson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4[/TD]
[TD]Rosalind[/TD]
[TD] 8-1[/TD]
[TD]Joel Rosario[/TD]
[TD]Ken McPeek[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5[/TD]
[TD]Thank You Marylou[/TD]
[TD] 30-1[/TD]
[TD]Julien Leparoux[/TD]
[TD]Mike Maker[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6[/TD]
[TD]Kiss Moon[/TD]
[TD] 30-1[/TD]
[TD]Victor Espinoza[/TD]
[TD]David Vance[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7[/TD]
[TD]Fashion Plate[/TD]
[TD] 6-1[/TD]
[TD]Gary Stevens[/TD]
[TD]Simon Callaghan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8[/TD]
[TD]Aurelia's Belle[/TD]
[TD] 50-1[/TD]
[TD]Channing Hill[/TD]
[TD]Wayne Catalano[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9[/TD]
[TD]Unbridled Forever[/TD]
[TD] 12-1[/TD]
[TD]Robby Albarado[/TD]
[TD]Dallas Stewart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10[/TD]
[TD]Empress of Midway[/TD]
[TD] 50-1[/TD]
[TD]Corey Nakatani[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11[/TD]
[TD]My Miss Sophia[/TD]
[TD] 8-1[/TD]
[TD]Javier Castellano[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12[/TD]
[TD]Got Lucky[/TD]
[TD] 20-1[/TD]
[TD]John Velazquez[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13[/TD]
[TD]Untapable[/TD]
[TD] 4-5[/TD]
[TD]Rosie Napravnik[/TD]
[TD]Steve Asmussen

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Zipstar81]

Hoppertunity out of the derby

 

[ManchesterUk]

Hey lads,just an interested spectator when it comes to horse racing,but,anyway...on one of the podcasts I listen to daily they had pro horse handicapper on and he was particulary high on Dance with fates chances.... they did a full 50 minutes or so with him,was quite interesting,thinking of throwing a few bob on it win and show,any of you men know much about it ?

 

[Lloyd Braun]

[TABLE="width: 612"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]

[/TD]
[TD](Post Time: 6:24)[/TD]
[TD]Surface: Dirt[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 4"]

---

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 4"]Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $2,000,000

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5

<tbody>
</tbody>

[TABLE="width: 612"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH="align: center"]#[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]PP[/TH]
[TH]HORSE[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]JOCKEY[/TH]
[TH]TRAINER[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]CLAIM $[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]EQUIP.[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]MED.[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD]Vicar's in Trouble
ML: 30-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]R. Napravnik
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]M. Maker[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD]Harry's Holiday
ML: 50-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]C. Lanerie
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]M. Maker[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD]Uncle Sigh
ML: 30-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]I. Ortiz, Jr.
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]G. Contessa[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Blk-On[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD]Danza
ML: 10-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]J. Bravo
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]T. Pletcher[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD]California Chrome
ML: 5-2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]V. Espinoza
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]A. Sherman[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD]Samraat
ML: 15-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]J. Ortiz
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]R. Violette, Jr.[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD]We Miss Artie
ML: 50-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]J. Castellano
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]T. Pletcher[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD]General a Rod
ML: 15-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]J. Rosario
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]M. Maker[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD]Vinceremos
ML: 30-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]J. Rocco, Jr.
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]T. Pletcher[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD]Wildcat Red
ML: 15-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L. Saez
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]J. Garoffalo[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD]Hoppertunity
ML: 6-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]M. Smith
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]B. Baffert[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD]Dance With Fate
ML: 20-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]C. Nakatani
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]P. Eurton[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD]Chitu
ML: 20-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]M. Garcia
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]B. Baffert[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD]Medal Count
ML: 20-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]R. Albarado
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]D. Romans[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD]Tapiture
ML: 15-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]R. Santana, Jr.
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]S. Asmussen[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]16[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]16[/TD]
[TD]Intense Holiday
ML: 12-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]J. Velazquez
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]T. Pletcher[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD]Commanding Curve
ML: 50-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]S. Bridgmohan
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]D. Stewart[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]18[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]18[/TD]
[TD]Candy Boy
ML: 20-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]G. Stevens
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]J. Sadler[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]19[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]19[/TD]
[TD]Ride On Curlin
ML: 15-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]C. Borel
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]W. Gowan[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD]Wicked Strong
ML: 8-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]R. Maragh
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]J. Jerkens[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: programNumber, align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]AE[/TD]
[TD]Pablo Del Monte
ML: 50-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]J. Sanchez
126 Lbs[/TD]
[TD]W. Ward[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Hoppertunity is scratched due to an issue with his front left foot

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Hey lads,just an interested spectator when it comes to horse racing,but,anyway...on one of the podcasts I listen to daily they had pro horse handicapper on and he was particulary high on Dance with fates chances.... they did a full 50 minutes or so with him,was quite interesting,thinking of throwing a few bob on it win and show,any of you men know much about it ?

Dance with Fate is an interesting entry, has been more of a synthetic/turf runner so will need to follow the footsteps of Animal Kingdom. Everything I have read about him this week is that he is an absolute gorgeous animal and has picked up quite a few fans this week mainly because of how good he looks.

A clocker's report on Dance With Fate:




May 3 KYDERBY x - Pedigree Analysis:~The jury is out on the Two Step Salsa's ability to handle a classic distance. Two Step Salsa excelled on the synthetic
surface and his babies previewed very well on the OBS synthetic surface. Lots of questions here at a classic distance


Apr 10 KEE gallop - Gallop:~Galloped well for Eurton with a ton of flesh and good color to his coat. He is a very compact type who looks like a sprinter type with
lots of muscles. He is not the biggest of horses but made his presence felt on the track with his energy


Apr 5 SA H 1:01.2s 5f:~Going along with ease here under own power 49.2, 101.2 looked effortless.


Mar 29 SA H 1:12.4s 6f:~Focused here finishing a sharp final quarter in 23.3 great gallop out around the turn.


Feb 8 SA H 47.4s 4f:~Took charge late striding out full of run finishing the final quarter in 23.3 galloped out with good energy

 

[Gandolf]

Hey lads,just an interested spectator when it comes to horse racing,but,anyway...on one of the podcasts I listen to daily they had pro horse handicapper on and he was particulary high on Dance with fates chances.... they did a full 50 minutes or so with him,was quite interesting,thinking of throwing a few bob on it win and show,any of you men know much about it ?

I know Jon White, the morning line maker for Santa Anita, has Dance With Fate as his top choice. He's usually pretty sharp.

DWF has shown an excellent closing kick on poly, but not so much in his two dirt races. There have been Animal Kingdom comparisons, but the two things AK had going for him that DWF doesn't were AK was a complete dirt unknown, having never raced on it before the Derby, and also AK had the unanimous top workout at Churchill before the race.

DWF does have a 2nd in a Grade 1 on dirt, so maybe his recent closing form will transfer to Churchill. I'll be against him for the win spot because his 2nd call pace ratings are last in the field and he'll most likely be left with too much ground to make up late to win, especially if the track is rated fast as is expected. But he's definitely one to slip into the exotics.

 

[Gandolf]

In my mind right now I've got the field separated this way:

WIN-FOURTH CONTENDERS (in order of preference)
#4 Danza - Should sit another nice rail trip right behind the early speed, has finished well in each of his four races, workouts have looked sharp.
#5 Cal Chrome - Top numbers, has enough tactical speed to get into a good position to make first run.
#16 Intense Holiday - Needs to do it in a one-run style from the back half of the pack. Has good tactical speed if needed.
#20 Wicked Strong - Will need to work out a trip from the back half of the pack. Also has good tactical speed if needed.

SECOND-FOURTH POSSIBLES
#10 Wildcat Red - Accomplished front-runner has shown tons of heart to stay on late.
#13 Chitu - Lightly raced, could be speed of the speed, also stays on well late. Baffert's last hope after losing Hoppertunity.
#6 Samraat - Consistent stalker, has never run to the speed figures of the 6 listed ahead of him. If he finds himself in the hunt late he'll be game.
#12 Dance With Fate - Good closer, but slow early pace numbers suggest he might leave himself too much to do late.

THIRD-FOURTH POSSIBLES
#17 Commanding Curve - Good closer, same connections as last year's Golden Soul, will be very high odds so worth including at the price.
#18 Candy Boy - 2nd best Cali horse left, has shown steady incremental improvement, gets Hall of Famer Stevens on board to gauge race pace.
#15 Tapiture - A little slower than most above him, but he's been working well.
#8 General a Rod - Has some class and general ability. Hard to see a scenario that could put him on top.
#19 Ride On Curlin - Has looked good at times on the track, gets Borel. Has a terrible record in the stretch though.

TOSSES
#1 Vicar's in Trouble - rail will force him to either expend a lot of energy early to get position or fall back into uncomfortable territory. A lose-lose.
#2 Harry's Holiday - Never shown enough to make one think he belongs, but will add to the early pace.
#3 Uncle Sigh - Blinkers on will ensure a fast early pace for this guy.
#7 We Miss Artie - Terrible dirt form, hard to envision him running well.
#9 Vinceremos - Best speed number is about a dozen lengths too slow.
#14 Medal Count - Another horse that's been much better on poly than dirt.
#21 Pablo Del Monte - Front runner in his three wins, all on poly. Will be hard pressed to get to the front from the 20 spot. Doesn't run nearly as well on dirt.

 

[ManchesterUk]

Lloyd,Gandy.. awesome lads,thanks :shake: Im gonna play him each/way(thats win and show to you guys)

The podcast was pretty cool,it was kinda the guys story,Paul Matties,I think you will enjoy it,if you got some time to listen while you work or whatever,cheers and GL :cheers:

scroll down 1 or 2
http://www.eog.com/eog-radio/

 

[Gandolf]

Pablo Del Monte passes on running, so there's 19 going in the Derby, with the #1 post empty. Helps the Vicar out a bit, could move him up a few spots.

 

[Dollaz]

Gandolf, Im a novice, but that's kinda how I've viewed it from the most part. I do rate Ride on Curlin higher though. BOL.

 

[DaRaiders]

By Jerry Izenberg/Columnist Emeritus
on May 02, 2014 at 6:00 AM, updated May 02, 2014 at 8:40 AM

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“Don’t weep for the colt here from Boston,
Sing his team no dreary song
Yes, his post is as bad as you get here
But don’t forget why he’s named
Wicked Strong.”LOUISVILLE — They had come here with a talented colt, a great story and the heart of all of Boston in their collective hip pocket. Don Little Jr., the mastermind, spokesman and camp director for Team Wicked Strong’s 20 owners, had every right to invoke the motto of his late father, the founder of Centennial Farms horse syndicate:"We provide the ultimate hope and dreams."And why not?They had brought with them the kind of horse that could prove it. And from Churchill Downs’ Barn 31, just three days short of the Kentucky Derby, Jimmy Jerkens, his trainer, echoed their optimism.Then they drew for post positions on Wednesday evening and hope and dreams had to take a mandatory eight-count. It drew gate 20. With 18 or 19 horses inside you, that’s like trying to swim across the Passaic River with a Wurlitzer jukebox tied to your ankles.It can be done but you ain’t a good bet.That’s the reason Wicked Strong immediately went to third choice in the mind and the notebook of track odds-maker Mike Battaglia — a logical move. But the people around this horse are fueled by emotion, not logic, and he has the name to prove it."I wanted to name him Boston Strong," Little said yesterday in front of the colt’s barn, but the name was taken. "But I think this says it because Greater Boston is both those things. That’s why 5 percent of all his winnings during the Triple Crown races will go to the One Fund for survivors of the marathon bombing."Little was sitting in his office last year when he got a text message saying one of his best friends was all right. ‘‘He was running the marathon. I thought why wouldn’t he be. And then right after that I learned about the bombings."Well, this is a tough area. I come from Ipswich, about 30 miles away. We’re noted for clams but it was the same there. When they got the second guy, you should have seen and heard the people coming out of their homes to cheer."So tomorrow, from a post that seems like it’s eight miles east of Cincinnati, Wicked Strong will run for the glory of Back Bay and Fenway and, yes, even Ipswich. But with his starting gate it will be tougher than trying to cross Death Valley on ice skates.When he drew No. 20, Jerkens rolled with the punch. After all, this is a guy who had a very good colt scratched from the Derby one year at the last minute. He knows the business he is in and how it can pinwheel your emotions. His father was a Hall of Fame trainer. Before he was 17, Jerkens was a regular, mucking stalls and walking "hots" at his father’s barn. This is not his first rodeo.So that night he went on to say how it can be done. He watched a DVD of a horse named I’ll Have Another, who two years ago came out of post 19 to win the roses."He had a fairly green jockey but I was amazed at the way he slid inside with such ease you would have thought it was a six-horse field. So it can be done."Jerkens had all the assurance he needed. He watched nothing else. He went to bed and thought about what Wicked Strong had to do. Thought about what options would present themselves ... when to pull back ... how not to go with the speed if it’s a suicide run ... how to win the battle for position.Don Little lost no sleep. What does he do in such situations?When he stopped laughing he said:"That’s what I have Jimmy for."And then he explained this syndicate. "We have people from Seattle and St. Louis and New York and California. The other day I had to laugh. I saw Jimmy training this horse we have dedicated to Boston and he’s wearing a Giants Super Bowl cap."Little’s dad came early to this business of putting together partnerships. Don Jr. knows this business. His horses have won eight of 11 stakes races in New York this season.But the Derby is the Derby."This is the Super Bowl of racing," Little said. "The electricity in the air this week is unbelievable. The idea of eight hours of sleep is long gone"My first time here I was with a tour group of about 200 people and we had seats right over there," he said, pointing to the first turn. "I will never forget the sight of 20 horses coming dead at you and the thunder of their hoof beats.""What about the post parade?" he was asked​

"This is a very emotional time for me. I lost my father so close to this race and my sister to breast cancer in January. I know when I hear that song there will be some tears."​

 

[DaRaiders]

"Until you go to the Kentucky Derby ... you ain’t never been nowhere and you ain’t never seen nothin’."

— Irwin S. Cobb, humorist, newspaperman
and Louisville good ol’ boyLOUISVILLE, Ky. — That’s the way the late Mr. Cobb, a native son of Paducah, Ky., and nationally syndicated newspaper columnist with more than a million readers, memorialized the greatest American cavalry charge since a wounded scout staggered into camp and gasped:"General Custer, I think we got some Indians coming to dinner."Mr. Cobb wrote his claim about the Derby back in 1930 and the thought was spot-on for decades.That was Derby week then, and this is Derby week now.But as this Derby week pokes its frenetic head into seven days worth of calendar, "now" will take care of itself. Today, this space belongs mostly to the "then" that Irwin Cobb rhapsodized and that was still very much alive when I covered my first Kentucky Derby in 1963. It was still very much what Alice Roosevelt Longworth, the daughter of President Theodore Roosevelt, called "a great party" after she saw her first one. It was still the bluegrass up in Lexington, the juleps at the track and Derby Pie in the restaurants.To this rookie’s eyes, it was immediately the Sodom and Gomorrah Fetlock Strutters Ball ... an annual convention of hustlers and rustlers, pickpockets and ladies of the evening (morning and whatever), boggling both the imagination and the wallet ... a bourbon-fueled, price-gouging, week-long bluegrass Bacchanalia, and somewhere underneath its zircon and tinsel exterior there lurked a great horse race each and every year.You think Mr. Cobb was exaggerating in the quote that preceded this column? Where else could you see display ads for a local watering hole billing itself as "the home of nude couch dancing?" Where else could you even see a nude couch? And 40 years after he wrote it, we were at another serious where-else moment when a museum up the road in Lexington trumpeted the arrival of what was then the hottest cultural relic in Kentucky — the late Secretariat’s baby tooth?The morning of my first Derby, I had breakfast in the coffee shop of the old Brown Hotel. Later, when the city itself finally figured out why new motels were springing up out near the airport and why well-heeled Derby-goers were suddenly staying away from the downtown area, they brought downtown into the waning years of the 20th century.But on the morning of my Derby debut, shortly after my eggs arrived, a guy stood up on a table and began to recite "Casey at the Bat" in a voice that would have done honor to Luciano Pavarotti.He was wearing no pants.Nobody even looked up from their past-performance charts.Why not? It was the end of Derby week and almost anything inconceivable had already happened. And for decades it stayed that same, outrageous way. Before they elected to qualify entrants by money earnings and later by a point system based on what races you won, I saw a few colts that couldn’t beat a large German shepherd with a running head start, bang flanks with far better thoroughbreds with efforts straight out of bumper cars at the old Palisades Amusement Park, thereby deciding not who would win but rather who couldn’t win.But I also saw Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed.I saw a man named Earl Rice come to town with a colt named Extra Swell, and produce a slide rule to prove he couldn’t lose. Unfortunately, the slide rule didn’t run. Neither did Extra Swell, who was clearly extra lousy. I remember a colt named Great Redeemer who had been beaten in his previous six races by a combined total of a modest 84½ lengths, and once went off at a price of nearly 92-1 in a more-or-less live field of five horses.He was so bad that his trainer, a straight arrow named (really) James James, resigned the week of the race, telling the owner, a Texas anesthesiologist, " In all conscience I cannot do this." The owner replied, "Well, I can." He lost by 47 lengths.I remember outrageous flat-rate taxi prices and hotel menus that rose geometrically each night of Derby week.All of that was the Derby that "was."And now, what of the Derby that "is?"A race track whose perimeter is dotted with corporate tents, whose viewing areas have had more face lifts and new looks than Joan Rivers in their quest for more seats and more seats and more seats, resulting in more money and more money and more obstructed views.Caught in the jaws of the latest construction, the press box no longer exists. First, there was the great Churchill Downs fire of the 1960s. I used to call it Tinderbox Downs in those days and I was damned near right. When the fire started about 100 yards from our position and moved toward us, the late Jack Murphy (San Diego Tribune) and I were peering over the edge when news arrives from a soot-covered messenger that the elevator had quit. Then a National Guardsman walked in and told us to relax because we had sprinklers.He tapped one.Sand fell out.We didn’t jump, but we sure as hell considered it.We moved to a temporary press box on the first floor about 35 years later. We got a message of some sort from both above and below on the Derby. It rained a genuine ark-building rain. Water poured past the door knee deep. With a simultaneous sizzle and a flash, every ATM in the joint burned out.In the battle of the press boxes, I’m glad they moved the press right out of a genuinely beautiful facility this year. Having survived fire and flood, I am sure pestilence would have been next.One other piece of evidence: This year they are offering a special $1,000 mint julep in a gold-plated souvenir julep cup.Now tell me this is still your daddy’s Derby.​

This will be the 49th Kentucky Derby for Star-Ledger Columnist Emeritus Jerry Izenberg. Reach him at: jizenberg@starledger.com​

 

[Gandolf]

Gandolf, Im a novice, but that's kinda how I've viewed it from the most part. I do rate Ride on Curlin higher though. BOL.

A lot of people are high on him Dollaz. Good health to you on ROC. I'm trying to decide whether the pace meltdown everyone seems to expect will actually occur, or whether its being overblown. It seems like when there's a fast track at Churchill the speed holds up better than people think.

2013 - Sloppy - total meltdown as 22&2 and 45&1 exhausts anyone tracking the pace

2012 - Fast - Bodemeister buried sprinter Trinniberg in 22&1 and 45&1 and carried his speed to a 2nd place finish. Winner stalked the pace. Closers could only get to third & fourth.

2011 - Fast - Shackleford goes 23&1, 48&3 and carries the lead to the stretch before hanging on for 4th. None of the 3 that pass him are worse than 12th at the half mile call.

2010 - Sloppy -Supersaver tracks a 22&3, 46 pace to win but 2nd-4th sat 19th, 11th and 20th at the half mile.

2009 - Sloppy - Mine That Bird comes from last to first, but the pace of 22&4 and 47&1 did not crush the stalkers, who ran 2nd thru 4th.

2008 - Fast - 3 out of top 4 track fairly close to the 23&1, 47 pace of Bob Black Jack to hit the board. Denis of Cork comes from dead last to run 3rd.

2007 - Fast - Hard Spun runs 22&4, 46&1 and gets beat late by favorite Street Sense, who closed from 19th at the half mile. 3rd & 4th place finishers were 13th and 20th early. I would say this pace melted a bit.

2006 - Fast - Top two sit just off the 22&3, 46 pace. Exotics rounded out by middle-late runners.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Agree Gandy, I don't think we will see the fractions of last year's race but as far as the pace meltdown, the horses here who figure to be on the lead seem to have some distance limitations, so don't know if we don't get what appears to be a pace melt down, think the winner will be much closer to the pace than Orb was last year though. Think this sets up for more of a stalking or mid pack runner to get first jump on deep closers when the first few start to wilt on the front end.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Alive to the 2-4-11 in Race 4 for the Pick 3 here.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

In my mind right now I've got the field separated this way:

WIN-FOURTH CONTENDERS (in order of preference)
#4 Danza - Should sit another nice rail trip right behind the early speed, has finished well in each of his four races, workouts have looked sharp.
#5 Cal Chrome - Top numbers, has enough tactical speed to get into a good position to make first run.
#16 Intense Holiday - Needs to do it in a one-run style from the back half of the pack. Has good tactical speed if needed.
#20 Wicked Strong - Will need to work out a trip from the back half of the pack. Also has good tactical speed if needed.

SECOND-FOURTH POSSIBLES
#10 Wildcat Red - Accomplished front-runner has shown tons of heart to stay on late.
#13 Chitu - Lightly raced, could be speed of the speed, also stays on well late. Baffert's last hope after losing Hoppertunity.
#6 Samraat - Consistent stalker, has never run to the speed figures of the 6 listed ahead of him. If he finds himself in the hunt late he'll be game.
#12 Dance With Fate - Good closer, but slow early pace numbers suggest he might leave himself too much to do late.

THIRD-FOURTH POSSIBLES
#17 Commanding Curve - Good closer, same connections as last year's Golden Soul, will be very high odds so worth including at the price.
#18 Candy Boy - 2nd best Cali horse left, has shown steady incremental improvement, gets Hall of Famer Stevens on board to gauge race pace.
#15 Tapiture - A little slower than most above him, but he's been working well.
#8 General a Rod - Has some class and general ability. Hard to see a scenario that could put him on top.
#19 Ride On Curlin - Has looked good at times on the track, gets Borel. Has a terrible record in the stretch though.

TOSSES
#1 Vicar's in Trouble - rail will force him to either expend a lot of energy early to get position or fall back into uncomfortable territory. A lose-lose.
#2 Harry's Holiday - Never shown enough to make one think he belongs, but will add to the early pace.
#3 Uncle Sigh - Blinkers on will ensure a fast early pace for this guy.
#7 We Miss Artie - Terrible dirt form, hard to envision him running well.
#9 Vinceremos - Best speed number is about a dozen lengths too slow.
#14 Medal Count - Another horse that's been much better on poly than dirt.
#21 Pablo Del Monte - Front runner in his three wins, all on poly. Will be hard pressed to get to the front from the 20 spot. Doesn't run nearly as well on dirt.

Can't disagree with much here, only major differences is I would switch Wildcat Red and Medal Count, maybe even move Medal Count into the top group.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Need the 11 to win this 3 way photo, thought the 4 was gonna give me a great price.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

CD Race 5 Pick 3: 3,4/1,6,8,9/3,12

 

[Gandolf]

Need the 11 to win this 3 way photo, thought the 4 was gonna give me a great price.

Had the 11 too, & the 13 at a great price. Yikes.

 

[Gandolf]

Can't disagree with much here, only major differences is I would switch Wildcat Red and Medal Count, maybe even move Medal Count into the top group.

Yeah it doesn't sound like Red is taking to the Churchill track very well.

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see Medal Count being a factor tomorrow. He had a big fitness edge on the field in the Blue Grass wheeling back from the Translyvania in 8 days, both polytrack races. He passed Pablo Del Monte in the stretch but gained no ground on Dance With Fate. His Grade 3 win was against a smallish, nondescript field. There he grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch and basically maintained the same margin in a short stretch. Neither race's BRIS speed figure even reaches 50-1 Commanding Curve's best. He was a total non-factor on dirt in the Fountain of Youth, losing 3+ lengths in the stretch to Wildcat Red and General a Rod, who essentially dueled for 8 furlongs. His winning race in January was on turf. Before that he steadily lost ground at every call in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, another dirt try. Ran OK in the Bourbon as a 2YO, again on poly. His winning maiden race at Ellis Park had a Race Rating of 9, only 50-1 Harry's Holiday's maiden win was against worse.

Two poor dirt efforts against quality competition and winning performances that run closer to the longshots in this race? That's why I have him on my list of tosses.

I will move Vicar's in Trouble forward into Wildcat Red's spot though and drop WR into the tosses. Just too many poor workout reports to have any confidence in him. Moving the Vicar one post of the rail is huge for him. Rosie might be able to get him a prime rail trip now.

 

[aplous]

Dance with Fate coming on as a trendy sleeper at 20-1......

 

[Lloyd Braun]

CD Race 9 Pick 3: 3,5/2,9/2,4,5,9,13

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Oaks/Derby Double: 2,4,5,9,13/4,5,12,15,16,20
Oaks/Woodward/Derby Pick 3: 2,4,5,9,12,13/1/4,5,6,12,14,15,16,17,20

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Race 9: ex/tri box 1,3,5

 

[Gandolf]

Any chance at all that Wise Dan gets beat tomorrow? He's 12 for 13 on turf with 7 straight grade 1 wins. That #10 is a little bit of an unknown.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

10 is an interesting horse and one who might make a name for himself in the coming months, but he would need to run a monster race here to beat Wise Dan going 9 furlongs on turf.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Churchill Under Card:

Race 2: #5 - Demander Didn't run well over the synthetic at Keeneland last time out, but did break maiden 2 back at Gulfstream closing into moderate fractions there. #1 - No Surrender purchased privately and switched to Pletcher barn after a big maiden win at Hawthorne, has been working well in the mornings. #6 - Chas's Legacy coming in off a long break, but likes the Churchill dirt and like the nice steady work pattern.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Race 3: Pick 3: 8,9,10/2,5/2,9

$0.50 Tri: 8,9/1,4,8,9,10/1,4,8,9,10

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Race 4: #2 Faerie Queene tired in last off a 10 month layoff, came back with a couple of very impressive works.

 

[Zipstar81]

great call Lloyd!