Road to the Kentucky Derby

Scouting the Tampa Bay Derby
Last week the old guard of Samraat and Uncle Sigh turned back the challenges of new shooters at Aqueduct to wage another knockdown dragout thriller in the Gotham. Will Vinceremos, Cousin Stephen and Matador have the same fortune at Tampa? We'll find out on Saturday.

I've had good luck at Tampa this year, especially with the carryover Pick 5s that seem to pop up every couple of weeks. Route races play pretty fair, with speed bias about even and only 15% of 8.5f races being wired. Field of ten is signed up, with plenty of early speed:

Early Speed

4 Coltimus Prime - Fourth start for this colt, first in 2014 and first time on dirt after 3 tries at Woodbine last fall. Don't hold the surface switch against horses at Tampa. Its a quirky track, so sometimes synthetic runners do just fine here. Prime comes in off a close 2nd in an ungraded Canadian stake at 8.5f. Has one work at Tampa that was eh, ok. Should be a part of what looks like it could be a fairly stout pace, which could be his demise due to the layoff. Too many strikes against him to endorse.

10 Tuscan Getaway - Veteran of the 2YO circuit with 7 starts and 2 wins, but has his first 2014 start here. Another Woodbine veteran (among other tracks), was tried and fell short in three straight sprinter stakes before placing and winning a pair of allowance routes. Would need to really leap forward off the layoff the be competitive here. Speed and fade looks likely.

2 Surfing USA - Favored Pletcher speedball comes in off a nice 2nd to Top Billing in a Gulfstream allowance in January. Gets a little lighter group than that in here. Castellano doesn't make the trip, but Jose Lezcano does. We'll see if he improves off his 2nd route try and if he can avoid dueling the 4 and 10. If he answers both those questions well then he should be very much in the hunt at the end.

Pace Pressers

8 Cousin Stephen - Finished a very game 3rd inside a length of Vinceremos in the Sam Davis after setting the fractions to the top of the stretch. Has also faced off against Top Billing and Commissioner and did not embarrass himself. His best effort was his maiden win in NY where he actually rated for most of the 9 furlongs before showing a strong finishing kick. Castellano rode him then and comes back in to ride him now. Well meant, a contender as long as there's no meltdown upfront.

1 Ring Weekend - Maiden winner in his last on try #5. Speed number is not out of line with the leaders here, but that huge jump in class is going to be a problem. Gets one of Tampa's best in Centeno to ride. Needs another leap forward after a pretty good one last race, could be tough to do. Also new to Tampa and shows no works there. Pass.

6 Vinceremos - Pletcher's Sam Davis champ got a dream run up the rail saving almost 3 lengths to Harpoon and then got the bob over him late. Is getting a little disrespected as the 3rd choice on the morning line. Figures to be in the mix but of the two Pletcher entries there's more excitement about Surfing USA. Will never get a trip like he did in the last and was not measurably better otherwise.

Off the Pace

3 Matador - Casse entry was cocked and loaded for the stretch run in the Sam Davis but then could only muster fourth in the photo with a pedestrian 26&3 final quarter. Might get a little more help with the pace scenario in this one, but he'll need a better closing kick than that. Leparoux is a solid choice for the running style, so he's got a chance at a pretty nice price.

7 East Hall -
Was 72-1 in the Fountain of Youth and clunked up late to finish fourth with a good 24&4 finish. Unfortunately he did little for the first 3 quarters of a mile on the speed favoring track and was left with no shot to challenge the top 3. Not sure if laying back was a deliberate tactic or not since his best efforts have usually had him within a couple of lengths of the lead throughout. Bottom line is he comes out of the best race of anyone in the field and was not embarrassed. Connections aren't top of the line though, and he's already had 11 races so its debatable as to how much more he could improve. Fringe player.

Closers

9 Hy Kodiak Warrior - Last seen in that 9f allowance matchup between Commissioner and Top Billing in early January. This guy finished 3rd beaten 2 lengths and lost no ground in what was a speedy stretch run of 24&2. Gets a new trainer in Navarro and switches to the other Saez jockey, Gabriel. Also get Lasix for the first time. New to Tampa, has been training sharply at Calder. Has been closing well in tepid paces so far in his career, this time he see a pretty good one and should have the lung power to run into it well. And he's 10-1. Must use.

5 Conquest Titan - Runner up to Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull as he circled wide on the turn and went from last to second, a tactic that might have never been tried if he hadn't won a mile allowance in November after stumbling at the start and being patiently ridden by Bridgemohan to rally past General Arod. Before that his connections had him try to attend really hot paces in the BC Juvenile and Futurity races. His new late running style should fit in well today, and he has the class to be a factor late. Has been shipped around, run well on dirt and synthetics, Tampa shouldn't be a hinder to his versatility.

I'm going to take a stand against the Sam Davis champ and hope some of the new shooters come in guns blazing. I think Surfing USA is the one to catch, but the pace will do him in early in the stretch as Cousin Stephen and Matador go on, with Conquest Titan and Hy Kodiak Warrior coming at them in the deep stretch. For the price I'll go with Hy Kodiak Warrior. East Hall clunking on late for maybe fourth. Should be a really good race.
 
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With Bayern now out of the San Felipe it looks like a 3 horse race with Kristo controlling the pace and California Chrome and Midnight Hawk tracking his every move and looking to pounce at the start of the stretch. I don't see much else in the group with the one wildcard being Schoolofhardrocks finally returning following an 6 month layoff after his maiden win at Delmar. No one in the field that day has distinguished himself since, which is not flattering. Interesting that Sadler has Rosario take over the mount on Kristo after using leading Cal jockey Bejarano for his first four starts.
 
Don't get much better than today, Conference tournaments kicking off and a big saturday at tracks on both coasts with a nice Tampa Bay Derby field and the Big Cap at Santa Anita getting the Fox Sports airing with Game on Dude, Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge squaring off.

Tampa Bay Derby has become a key prep in recent years and this year is no different as we see some connections with horses whose running style does not fit in with the speed favoring Gulfstream strip make the trip across state to run on the quirky and sandy Tampa dirt that at least plays fairly honest.

#9 Cousin Stephen set the pace in the Steven F. Davis before conceding and holding on for a game 3rd, has shown an ability to rate and will probably allow #4 Coltimus Prime and #10 Tuscan Getaway battle for the lead and sit just off of those, both of whom I view as pace presences only, a few others in here will be trying to employ similar tactics, might be a notch below the top ones here but if he drifts up on the tote board above the 9-2 ML could be an interesting value play and certainly a horse to use underneath in the exotics.

#2 Surfing USA ships over for Pletcher after failing to hold on for the top prize in an OC 75k/n1x to Top Billing, should be sitting right behind the front runners and should be able to save ground close to the rail, will be making only his 4th start so giving away some experience but should also have room for some improvement, if he avoids dueling with the speed up top should be a big factor.

#3 Matador made up some ground late in last try in the Davis, which was his first test on conventional dirt, to finish 4th but just a length behind the winner. Mixed feelings on this one here as I feel he might be able to get the jump on #5 Conquest Titan and #9 Hy Kodiak Warrior but think those 2 both will have a better kick when they get rolling, might use underneath.

#5 Conquest Titan made the move over from Gulfstream as he would be hard pressed to gain too many Derby points running on a surface not suited for his recent drop back and make one run style. He did show much more early speed so is capable of being closer to the lead if the connections so choose which I would like to see today as although there should be an honest pace there will be others moving late as well who might get the jump on him, he does possess a great turn of foot and will very much be a factor at the wire.

#6 Vinceremos stalked the pace in his Davis win, in just his third start, and was able to hold off the cavalry that day to win by a nose. Another with a lack of experience and will be a facing his toughest test yet, will take a stand against the repeat here.

#7 East Hall has chased Wildcat Red and General a Rod in 2 of his last 3 races and really had no chance in the Fountain of Youth in last once the top 2 set crazy fast fractions and still finished strong, East Hall did pass most of the tiring field for a nice 4th place finish and should be closer to the pace today running over a track more suited for his style, should be moving late and might be able to catch a piece at a decent price.

#9 Hy Kodiak Warrior has only finished behind Coup de Grace, Commissioner and Top Billing in his last 2 races, so although making his stakes debut has faced off against some top talent. Will be sitting back off the pace and looking to make a move at the top of the stretch, don't think we will get the 10-1 ML but should still be offering a nice value here and is the pick.

Like Gandolf I will be taking a stand against the horses coming out of the Sam F. Davis and look to some of the newcomers to bring some class here. I think Surfing USA will be battling to hold off Hy Kodiak Warrior and Conquest Titan with East hall right behind the top 3. Will probably play #9 Hy Kodiak Warrior to win and 2,5,9 over 6,7,8 in the exotics.
 
No real opinion from me on the San Feilpe, here is a pretty good write up though:

San Felipe Stakes 2014 Preview Picks

The GII San Felipe Stakes takes place Saturday, March 8, 2014 at Santa Anita Park in California. Bob Baffert’s Bayern has been scratched due to a bruised hoof leaving nine Kentucky Derby hopefuls racing the 1 1/16 mile track for a $300,000 purse and 50 points on the Derby Trail.
Morning-WorkoutE-300x193.jpg
The San Felipe Stakes is the 5th race of the day on Saturday, March 8, 2014 at Santa Anita Park with a post time of 2:00 PM PDT and will award the winner with a $300,000 purse and fifty points on the Kentucky Derby leader board.
Bayern was the 8-5 morning line favorite before being scratched in the 2014 San Felipe Stakes. Trainer Bob Baffert counts on Midnight Hawk, with 4-1 odds, to cross the finish line first with jockey Mike Smith. Midnight Hawk is currently in thirteenth place on the 2014 Kentucky Derby leader board with twelve points. The three-year-old colt is two for three most recently finishing third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 8, 2014 at Santa Anita Park. Midnight Hawk earned ten of his leader board points by winning the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park with regular rider Mike Smith on January 11, 2014. Interestingly enough, Bob Baffert trained both of Midnight Hawk’s parents, champion sprinter Midnight Lute and Miss Wineshine.
California bred California Chrome, with 3-1 morning line odds, is all he rage for the 2014 San Felipe Stakes. I’m no expert, but compared to the other three-year-olds this horse seems heavily raced, or shall I say more experience. The Art Sherman trained colt raced eight times so far throughout his young career and finished first four times. He’s currently on a winning streak finishing first in his last two races. California Chrome doesn’t have any Kentucky Derby leader board points as of yet, but that could all change on Saturday with jockey Victor Espinoza. Experts say California Chrome is a closer doing most of his work on the last turn for home.
The John Sadler trained colt Kristo comes in with 4-1 morning line odds for the 2014 San Felipe Stakes. Kristo is 39th on the 2014 Kentucky Derby leader board with four points total for his 2nd place Sham Stakes win behind Midnight Hawk. The Hronis Racing owned colt hasn’t raced since the Sham Stakes, which to me sets off a siren in a positive way. Jockey Joel Rosario will be on the mount and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kriso brings it home on Saturday in the 2014 San Felipe Stakes.
Schoolofhardrocks comes in with 8-1 morning line odds and teams up with jockey Joe Talamo for the 2014 San Felipe Stakes. The three-year-old colt trained by David Hofmans has only raced once in his lifetime back in August of 2013 at Del Mar and actually won! There really isn’t much to say about this young fellow except I’m very interested in seeing how he plays out on Saturday.
The longshots for the 2014 San Felipe Stakes are Doug O’Neill’s Recanted with 20-1 odds, Sawyer’s Hill with 30-1 odds, Rprettyboyfloyd with 12-1 odds, Unstoppable Colby with 20-1 odds, and Home Run Kitten with 30-1 odds.
It’s a little dicey but I’m going with Kristo for the win. I’d like to see Mindnight Hawk finish first but the only way that is going to happen is if Bob Baffert finally takes our advice and gets drunk tonight. If anyone sees Bob Baffert out at a bar please let us know so we can bet on Midnight Hawk. I’m going to put money down on Unstoppable Colby to come in the money too. Good Luck! Safe Run!
- See more at: http://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news...view-picks.html#sthash.wNL3tqVD.pPjGj4PC.dpuf
 
Rail looks like a golden place to be at Tampa, with the 2nd and 3rd races both won by horses making the pass by cutting the corner and exploding away down the stretch. Not coincidentally thats how Vinceremos won the Sam Davis. Local jocks might have an edge.
 
Don't think it will be the best race to be putting money down on but this year's Big Cap is the type of race the sport needs more of, possibly the nation's 3 top horses on a national tv broadcast in HD. The big question here is, is Game on Dude, the 7yo gelding, done? He has dominated the California handicap division the last few years before faltering badly in the last 2 BC Classics. Mucho Macho Man is really at the top of his game right now reeling off 3 straight wins including the BC Classic by a nose over Will Take Charge who really came on in the second half of his 3yo campaign. If these 3 all show up with a good race the rest are probably running for fourth. Not much early speed in here should help GOD and MMM and might hinder WTC chances as his closing style would appreciate a hot pace in front. Will probably just be watching, but if I do get involved will probably take a stand against GOD and play MMM and WTC over Blingo and Imperative who finished 1-2 in the G2 San Antonio ahead of GOD back on Feb 8.



Another interesting race today is the Gulfstream Park Handicap with some familiar faces from last year's Triple Crown chase facing off here. Itsmyluckyday returns to the track after breaking a bone in his pelvis last summer, he has been sharp in the mornings for Please and is running an ideal distance for him with the one turn mile. Think he has a big one in him but not sure if it will be today. Palace Malice is back off a break following the BC Classic and certainly has enough early foot to handle the distance and track today at will probably be a short number. Falling Sky ran huge going 7F in the Gulfstream Park Sprint to win by 5.5 lengths, if allowed to run loose on the lead good luck trying to catch him down the Gulfstream stretch. That makes #5 Sr. Quisqueyano a key pace presence here as I am sure Itsmyluckyday and Palace Malice would much rather him do the dirty work of challenging Falling Sky up front. Brujo de Olleros was a horse I thought might be able to take advantage of a face pace up front but he was scratched. #2 Golden Ticket probably wants to go longer but has shown some tactical speed and might be able to get up for a piece. #3 Uncaptued has shown some ability at times but hasn't been quite able to put it all together and was no match against Lea in his last two, some what intriguing at a price but I will pass. If there is a pace meltdown #6 Navarez is the one who might be able to take advantage but would need to take a big step forward to do so.

I am going to take a shot that Itsmyluckyday is back to full strength and ready to roll in a spot that should suit him well.
 
Since it will be upwards of $3 Million I played 2 tickets for the Rainbow Pick 6 at Gulfstream starting in Race 6:

4 / 3,5,8 / 9,11 / 2,4,7 / 3,5 / 2,3,7

3,4,7,8 / 3,5,8,10 / 9,10,11 / 4,7,8 / 1 / 3,5,7
 
Played the pick 5 at Gulfstream, I don't see the Jackpot getting hit today and I couldn't lock down that 6th race:

3,8,10/6,8,9,10/2,7,8/1,3,5/3,7
 
Wow, California Chrome put in a monster effort to win the San Felipe. Broke like a shot and ran with a high cruising speed the entire 8.5 furlongs. Reminds me of Shackleford.
 
Well apparently Ring Weekend liked what California Chrome did and tried to replicate it, once he was clear by 8 and with no pressure they were gonna have a tough time catching him. I don't think we will be lacking a fast early pace in this year's Derby, the question is who will be able to take advantage of it.
 
Haven't seen a price horse sneak off and hide in a big race like that since Haynesfield got away in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and beat Blame by 4 lengths.
 
Vinceremos probably punched his ticket to Louisville with the 20 points for second. Ran a very even race. Seems like he'll hit the first turn about 8th, hit the far turn about 9th, and finish about 10th.
 
Played the pick 5 at Gulfstream, I don't see the Jackpot getting hit today and I couldn't lock down that 6th race:

3,8,10/6,8,9,10/2,7,8/1,3,5/3,7

4 out of 5 conso pays $12.20 x 3 = $36.60

I heard a tip just yesterday that horses coming off layoffs as a 2YO to start 3YO racing can improve their speed numbers by 25%. If I had applied that to the 2 in the 7th his speed number would've put him in the mix with my other choices. I won't forget that again.
 
Dude ain't done, huge effort there taking them wire to wire, 1:58.10, he was flying. Good to see this guy still has it.
 
When he gets comfortable out front he can make things look so easy, even when they finish just a tick off the track record. When Hear the Ghost went wide on the first turn and let the Dude cruise it was just what the doctor ordered. Also helped that Will Take Charge swung himself a little wide coming off the turn, probably cost him a couple of lengths in momentum. Fun race.
 
Gandy I was in the winner circle a few weeks back

a 20k purse, nothing special like a big race, but fun on a Friday

Yoshimi Pink
 
Hey thats cool Twink. You could do a lot worse than Rosie.

Haven't seen your boy listed alongside any Derby trail horses this year. Anything promising?
 
Hey thats cool Twink. You could do a lot worse than Rosie.

Haven't seen your boy listed alongside any Derby trail horses this year. Anything promising?
yeah he doesnt have much this year as far as I know...if something pops I will for sure let ya know

man he really took a knee to the balls last year in Baltimore...that horse had it all and it was our(lol....his I should say) time. Just unlucky

Ill keep you posted on what he likes etc tho
 
Al Stall, right? He trains a couple of horses for Parting Glass they have down in LA, one who looks like he might work out pretty good moving forward is Wildcat Friendship. From what I understand he was just gelded because he had an inflamed and twisted nut, but was training good despite the pain and should progress now that they have that sorted out.
 
Al Stall, right? He trains a couple of horses for Parting Glass they have down in LA, one who looks like he might work out pretty good moving forward is Wildcat Friendship. From what I understand he was just gelded because he had an inflamed and twisted nut, but was training good despite the pain and should progress now that they have that sorted out.
Yes Al Stall Jr bro
 
Yes Al Stall Jr bro

You're boys with him? He is an excellent trainer and very well respected, known as one of the guys who does things right. Fair Grounds is on my short list of tracks to get too, and if your boy is right I might have to do it soon. He called out the track, or Churchill Downs who owns it, big time a couple of weeks back after they cut purses by 10% for the rest of the meet calling the place a shambles, good for him.
 
Yes Al Stall Jr bro

Forever enshrined as the trainer of the only horse to ever beat the great Zenyatta on what is still my all-time favorite day of racing, BC 2010. Big Drama, Uncle Mo, Goldikova all running huge as an undercard to the big finale under the lights at Churchill.

They really need to get the Cup races back to Churchill.
 
Kentucky Derby 2014 point standings

Leader board for qualifying points to the 2014 Kentucky Derby, which will be run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on Saturday, May 3, 2014. Points are earned by the top four finishers in designated Kentucky Derby prep races. Earnings in non-restricted stakes races serve as a tie-breaker.
Updated: March 8, 2014
[TABLE="class: ckeditor-styled-table, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 5%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Rank[/TH]
[TH="width: 30%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Horse[/TH]
[TH="width: 30%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Trainer[/TH]
[TH="width: 10%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Points[/TH]
[TH="width: 10%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Samraat[/TD]
[TD]Rick Violette Jr.[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]$450,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Intense Holiday[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]$327,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Wildcat Red[/TD]
[TD]Jose Garrafalo[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]$410,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Ring Weekend[/TD]
[TD]H. Graham Motion[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]$210,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]California Chrome[/TD]
[TD]Art Sherman[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]$182,250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Midnight Hawk[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]$144,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]t-7[/TD]
[TD]Albano[/TD]
[TD]Larry Jones[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]$150,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]t-7[/TD]
[TD]Uncle Sigh[/TD]
[TD]Gary Contessa[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]$150,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Tapiture[/TD]
[TD]Steve Asmussen[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]$300,738[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Vinceremos[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]$190,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]Vicar's in Trouble[/TD]
[TD]Mike Maker[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]$160,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]General a Rod[/TD]
[TD]Mike Maker[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]$140,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Havana[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]$660,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Cairo Prince[/TD]
[TD]Kiaran McLaughlin[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]$470,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Honor Code[/TD]
[TD]Shug McGaughey[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]$340,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]Kristo[/TD]
[TD]John Sadler[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]$56,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Tamarando[/TD]
[TD]Jerry Holldendorfer[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]$490,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]Bond Holder[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]$273,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Rise Up[/TD]
[TD]Tom Amoss[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$786,633[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]We Miss Artie[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$262,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]Candy Boy[/TD]
[TD]John Sadler[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$260,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]In Trouble[/TD]
[TD]Tony Dutrow[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$170,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]Noble Moon[/TD]
[TD]Leah Gyarmati[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$145,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]Ami's Holiday[/TD]
[TD]Josie Carroll[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$136,145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]Cleburne[/TD]
[TD]Dale Romans[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$102,044[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]Tanzanite Cat[/TD]
[TD]Cody Autrey[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$99,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]Surfing USA[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$35,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]Conquest Titan[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]$180,495[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]Strong Mandate[/TD]
[TD]D. Wayne Lukas[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]$442,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]Casiguapo[/TD]
[TD]Mario Morales[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$271,050[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]Ride On Curlin[/TD]
[TD]Billy Gowan[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$94,387[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]Financial Mogul[/TD]
[TD]Rick Violette, Jr[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$93,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]Classic Giacnroll[/TD]
[TD]Lisa Guerrero[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$62,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]East Hall[/TD]
[TD]Bill Kaplan[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$47,550[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]Schoolofhardknocks[/TD]
[TD]David Hofmans[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$18,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]Hoppertunity[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$16,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]Smarty's Echo[/TD]
[TD]Anne Smith[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$82,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]Walt[/TD]
[TD]Chris Hartman[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$45,857[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]Scotland[/TD]
[TD]Tony Dutrow[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$45,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]Laddie Boy[/TD]
[TD]Chuck Peery[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$42,599[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]Chitu[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$40,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]Smart Cover[/TD]
[TD]Dale Romans[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$32,918[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]Big Bazinga[/TD]
[TD]Sandra Dominguez[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$29,139[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]Coastline[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]$77,979[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]Enterprising[/TD]
[TD]Tom Proctor[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$91,100[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]Arctic Slope[/TD]
[TD]Ken McPeek[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$41,572[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]Wicked Strong[/TD]
[TD]Jimmy Jerkens[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$40,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]Gold Hawk[/TD]
[TD]Steve Asmussen[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$28,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]Awesome Sky[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$16,819[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]Diamond Bachelor[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Biancone[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$92,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]Rum Point[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$30,250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]Almost Famous[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Byrne[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$23,079[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]Matuszak[/TD]
[TD]Bill Mott[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$22,667[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]Son of a Preacher[/TD]
[TD]Bret Calhoun[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$11,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]Buck Magic[/TD]
[TD]Dave Fawkes[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$8,410[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]I'll Wrap It Up[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$6,000[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Removed from Standings/Not Triple Crown Nominated: New Year's Day (10, $1,100,000),Top Billing (10, $40,000), Dance with Fate (8, $150,000), Go Greeley (2, $220,601), Roman Unbridled (2, $113,000), Rankhasprivileges (2, $100,250), Ontology (2, $77,250), Can the Man (1, $111,000), and Puppy Manners (1, $18,000
 
There's a small but talented field lined up for the Rebel Stakes on Saturday, a race that has grown in stature thanks to its list of winners in the last ten years that include Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Lookin at Lucky, The Factor, Secret Circle and last year's 3 year old champ Will Take Charge.

Early Speed

3 Tapiture
- Winner off the bench of the Southwest last month at this track and distance for his second grade stake win in a row. Figures to set the pace and could get loose in this small field. Has the best speed and class ratings and if he's left alone to go 1:12-1:13 on the front he'll cruise.

7 Street Strategy - Had a strong 1 mile maiden win in his 2nd start in late January, taking the lead at the 1/2 mile and rolling on from there. Went 1:14&3 so he'll need to quicken a bit to stay with Tapiture, but Borel was operating with a four length lead in the maiden win so he should be able to stay on a faster pace. Will be a price, but so was Ring Weekend at Tampa. Son of Street Sense holds the key to this race IMO.

Pace Pressers

2 Ride on Curlin
- Ran a distant third to Tapiture in the Southwest, trying to stay on the pace but fading late. Seems to be without a winning style, his two wins were on the front end in sprints. Has tried laying back, but doesn't quite get there, yet the front end going two turns didn't work either. Kinda sour on him at this point.

1 Jet Cat - Not a factor in his two allowance races at Oaklawn this year. No reason to think he'll suddenly jump up in a Grade 2. Pass.

4 Strong Mandate - Chased Tapiture around in the Southwest last month, will try to turn the tables this time. 1 for 4 in graded stakes in his career, the one win was in the slop in Saratoga. Maybe he's a mudder?

Off the Pace

5 Hoppertunity -
Baffert horse comes over to Oaklawn after running an ok 4th in the Risen Star. Gets an upgrade with Mike Smith hopping on. The colt flew back to California after the Risen Star instead of going to Oaklawn. No idea whether he'll like the track on not, so he's a little bit of a mystery. Will need to improve and not a fan of all the travel, so I'm passing.

8 Kobe's Back - The other Cali shipper put in a big winning effort in the one turn San Vicentes last month, showing an affinity for the dirt after three poly track races to start his career. His one 2 turn effort is excusable, when he clipped heels a half mile into the Cashcall Futurity. Has shown the talent, should be dangerous as long as there's a little bit of pace pressure up front to run at.

Closers

6 Sheltowee's Boy
- Ran his best effort last out, coming from 12 lengths out to beat out 9 others in his second allowance try. Jumps in class here, needs a pace to run at. Probably not good enough.

I think it's a two horse race, with Tapiture trying to control the pace and Kobe's Back trying to reel him in late. The smaller field probably gives the edge to Tapiture.
 
BC 2010 was a great day, my biggest hit ever..that pk 4

great thread Lloyd and Gandy, thanks guys.
 
Not sure what we learned from that shitshow of a stretch run in the Rebel. Tapiture pushed out Hoppertunity to move into an open path early, then it looked like Hoppertunity bumped him mid-stretch and then Tapiture got squeezed again late stretch as Hoppertunity held on for the win. Should have known better than to dismiss a Baffert horse at Oaklawn. They'll both be heading to Louisville barring any setbacks.

Strong Mandate had it all on his plate while setting the pace, even had the off track to work with, and still faded late. Kobe's Back either didn't like the track or the mud, not sure which, but he didn't fire.

This week is the first of two key preps on poly tracks, the Spiral at Turfway Park on Saturday, where solid poly performers Tamarando and We Miss Artie are rumored to be running. Also running on Sunday is the Sunland Derby on what is usually a pretty fast track at Sunland Park, another Baffert playground. Midnight Hawk and Global Strike are possibles.
 
You're boys with him? He is an excellent trainer and very well respected, known as one of the guys who does things right. Fair Grounds is on my short list of tracks to get too, and if your boy is right I might have to do it soon. He called out the track, or Churchill Downs who owns it, big time a couple of weeks back after they cut purses by 10% for the rest of the meet calling the place a shambles, good for him.
Yes. Sit up in their suite at FG when I go. I actually am very close with his brother, but yea Al is great. He does it right and by no means was "given" anything....true, Sr was commission at one point but he cut his teeth and did it right

thanks for saying what u did:cheers:
 
Forever enshrined as the trainer of the only horse to ever beat the great Zenyatta on what is still my all-time favorite day of racing, BC 2010. Big Drama, Uncle Mo, Goldikova all running huge as an undercard to the big finale under the lights at Churchill.

They really need to get the Cup races back to Churchill.
:shake:
 
The final two 50 point races are this weekend, with the Spiral Stakes on Saturday on the poly at Turfway Park and the Sunland Derby on Sunday on the hard dirt at Sunland Park. The Spiral has an East/West/Midwest combination of interesting horses in Tammarando, We Miss Artie and Poker Player. The Sunland Derby came up particularly good with some eastern shippers heading there along with Baffert's Midnight Hawk.

Starting with the Spiral which draws a large field of 12:

EARLY PACE

8 Solitary Ranger - Dominant winner of the Battaglia returns here. Set a really strong pace in that race (23&2, 47) and basically ran away from several of today's entrants, including Poker Player. Already has a Grade 3 win, so he should be competitive here. Had an 8 length lead wither to under 5 at the wire thanks to a 27&4 final quarter mile. Will depend on whether Almost Famous or anyone else wants to challenge him on the front end and wear him down. Seems to love the poly, going 5 2-2-0.

9 Almost Famous - Ships in from Gulfstream where he hung within a length or two of Cairo Prince for about a mile before fading late to 4th. Followed that up by not really lifting a hoof in the Fountain of Youth, finishing 11th. Borel stays on for today's ride. Sets up in the post just outside of Solitary Ranger, so it will be interesting to see if he can stick with him. His Holy Bull effort would have him right on the pace, and since's he's never passed a horse in 5 races it might prompt his connections to send him. Had a really nice allowance win at Church late last year at this distance, so there's some hope for him. Probably not as good as Solitary Ranger though, so pass.

PACE PRESSERS

2 Asserting Bear - Ships in from a weakening 5th in the Sam Davis at Tampa. Last year ran both turf and poly races at Woodbine, with a maiden win on turf and a restricted stakes win at 9 furlongs on the poly. Should appreciate the return to poly here. May be hard pressed to keep up with the two pace setters and is not much of a finisher in the lane. Would be surprised to see him in the photograph at the wire.

5 Coastline - Comes north from Oaklawn after a 3rd and 4th in the two Derby preps there, so he's not a slouch. Is 1 for 1 on the poly with his maiden win coming at Keeneland last October. Trainer Casse has shown good success in converting from dirt to turf (24% winners). Should be well positioned to make a run coming off the turn. The question will be can he get there. Leaning no but his form is dirty enough that he could rise up and surprise at a price.

10 Harry's Holiday - A distant 3rd in the Battaglia after a huge 6 1/2 furlong stakes win in February. Tried to run with the hot pace and tired. Gets Rosie on board but other that that there's no reason to think he'll make up the 9+ lengths from March 1. Pass.

11 We Miss Artie - Cali horse in 2012 shipped to Gulfstream for a pair of stakes races, one turf, one dirt, before coming here. His dirt form is frankly awful: losses by 6, 4 and 17 lengths. But he's 1 for 3 and turf and a perfect 1 for 1 on poly, with a win in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. Needs to improve a bit here to be in the mix, but Pletcher thinks he'll fit here and John Velazquez thought enough of him to make the trip, so he'll definitely attract interest. Took advantage of a very stiff early pace in the Futurity to come on and win at 9:1. May get a nice pace to run at here too, although now he'll have to worry about Tamarando and Poker Player coming late as well. Worth a shot at 4:1. Not so much if he goes lower at post time.

1 Big Bazinga - After breaking his maiden first try last year, this horse underwent a trainer change and ran a very game second 2nd in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes. Both races were on Woodbine's poly. After a 2nd trainer change this guy lost the Delta Jackpot by 12, then the Holy Bull by 33 before just barely failing to get up in a turf allowance. Again he's a horse with dirty form and past poly success. At 30:1 he's not the worst long shot ever.

MIDPACK RUNNERS

7 All Tied Up - With 2 wins in 7 races on turf, tries poly for the first time and also tries stakes company too. Shows no works on the poly, so aside from the OK turf record the other main selling point on this guy is that he is the OTHER Pletcher horse in the race, so beware. Finished behind Big Bazinga in his last, so that might give you an idea of his class level. Pass.

12 Artic Slope - First effort of 2014 for this colt, last seen running a non-threatening sixth to Tapiture in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and before that finished last to Almost Famous at this distance. His most eye-popping effort was his 3rd in the Breeder's Futurity where he broke in air at the gate and then went 6 wide while rallying to pass horses to finish 3rd. His lousy start there kept him out of the hot early pace though. Would really have to improve drastically from his 2YO form to be competitive hear. Pass

CLOSERS

4 Tamarando - Hollendorfer trained horse comes in from Cali with 10 races under his belt, 7 of them on poly where he's gone 4-1-1 with his worst finish a 4th in his maiden debut. Average field size in those races was 10, so as a closer he's always seemed to figure out a way to rally. One of only 2 in the field to have a 9 furlong race on his resume, and like Asserting Bear it was a win. Beat Dances with Fate in the El Camino after a slow pace, which was impressive. Ran 2nd to San Felipe winner California Chrome in January, and has a Grade 1 poly win in the Delmar Futurity last September. By far the most accomplished in the field and should be right in the mix late. The legendary Russell Baze makes the trip for this one, WOW.

3 Poker Player - The favorite in the Battaglia was about 7 lengths back after 3/4 but let Solitary Ranger stretch out to 11 in front heading into the stretch and could only close to 2nd beaten about 5 lengths. Won the Grade 3 Bourbon on the poly at Keeneland last October, so poly appears to be his surface of choice. Channing Hill stays on board, he's improved the last couple of years but he's no Baze or Velazquez. His closing kick is pretty good so I'd expect him to be in the hunt for catching a piece of the money. Would need to improve to improve to contend for the win and running second off the layoff its possible he'll move forward here.

6 Smart Cover - Only the fifth race for this winner of 1, first try on poly. Has a win on turf which could bode well here, and also ran 2nd at the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill, a track which is usually OK for poly track horses. Speed figures have been nowhere close to what he'll need today.


I have to admit I'm a Tamarando fan so I'll be rooting for him. Solitary Ranger could be tough on the front end if he gets things his own way. I'd be shocked if he's anywhere near the 6-1 morning line. Coastline and Wee Miss Artie figure to be two square prices that could spring the upset.
 
We Miss Artie punches his ticket to Louisville with a game effort over Harry's Holiday and Coastline. Tamarando flattened out in the stretch and Solitary Ranger fell apart as Almost Famous pressed him the entire way. Harry's Holiday ruined my exotics but was given a hell of a ride by Rosie.

Quick thoughts on Sunland - Kind of amazed at the jockeys that made the trip to New Mexico, with Hall of Famers in Velazquez and Mike Smith in town along with last year's top rider in Castellano. In my mind that's going to make a big difference in a race that has a distance that few of the horses have run.

I think there's enough pace signed on between Chitu, Tanzanite Cat and Garen to fry them all. Smith should be smart enough to not wear out Midnight Hawk early, so he'll get first run at the leaders, with Commissioner trying to close late. Rebranded is a local horse that showed some talent in the Mine That Bird Derby, whether he can duplicate that effort is the question. The idea of Castellano heading cross-country to ride a maiden winner in Global Strike, even if it is a Pletcher horse, is a flag raiser.

I think Midnight Hawk is well place in here and its now or never for Baffert's charge, with Commissioner catching a piece along with two of either Chitu, Global Strike or Rebranded as the other point collectors.
 
Forget about Midnight Hawk as a Derby contender, even though he might have enough points to get in. Smith had him right where he needed to be, even got close to a length ahead coming off the turn, and Chitu outfinished him in the stretch yet again, despite being closer to what was pretty quick fractions. Chitu could be a game horse this May. Commissioner would be a great exotics play on the long Churchill stretch to pick up a 3rd or 4th if he gets in, but he's a bit of a clunker.
 
Road to the 2014 Kentucky Derby

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH]<center>Date</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Race</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Distance</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Track</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Winner</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Beyer</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>1st</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>2nd</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>3rd</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>4th</center>[/TH]
[TH]Charts & Analysis[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]9/7/13[/TD]
[TD]Iroquois[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Churchill Downs</center>[/TD]
[TD]Cleburne[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9/28/13[/TD]
[TD]FrontRunner[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Santa Anita</center>[/TD]
[TD]Bond Holder[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]10/5/13[/TD]
[TD]Breeders' Futurity[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M (S)[/TD]
[TD]<center>Keeneland</center>[/TD]
[TD]We Miss Artie[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/5/13[/TD]
[TD]Champagne[/TD]
[TD]1M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Belmont</center>[/TD]
[TD]Havana[/TD]
[TD]93[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]10/6/13[/TD]
[TD]Grey[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M (S)[/TD]
[TD]<center>Woodbine</center>[/TD]
[TD]Ami's Holiday[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/2/13[/TD]
[TD]BC Juvenile[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Santa Anita</center>[/TD]
[TD]New Year's Day[/TD]
[TD]88[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]11/23/13[/TD]
[TD]Delta Downs Jackpot[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Delta Downs</center>[/TD]
[TD]Rise Up[/TD]
[TD]88[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/30/13[/TD]
[TD]Remsen[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Aqueduct</center>[/TD]
[TD]Honor Code[/TD]
[TD]88[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]11/30/13[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky Jockey Club[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Churchill Downs</center>[/TD]
[TD]Tapiture[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/4/14[/TD]
[TD]Jerome[/TD]
[TD]1 mile 70 yds[/TD]
[TD]<center>Aqueduct</center>[/TD]
[TD]Noble Moon[/TD]
[TD]85[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]1/11/14[/TD]
[TD]Sham[/TD]
[TD]1M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Santa Anita</center>[/TD]
[TD]Midnight Hawk[/TD]
[TD]95[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/18/14[/TD]
[TD]Lecomte[/TD]
[TD]1M 70 yds[/TD]
[TD]<center>Fair Grounds</center>[/TD]
[TD]Vicar's in Trouble[/TD]
[TD]97[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]1/20/14[/TD]
[TD]Smarty Jones[/TD]
[TD]1M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Oaklawn Park</center>[/TD]
[TD]Tanzanite Cat[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/25/14[/TD]
[TD]Holy Bull[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Gulfstream</center>[/TD]
[TD]Cairo Prince[/TD]
[TD]95[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]2/1/14[/TD]
[TD]Withers[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Aqueduct</center>[/TD]
[TD]Samraat[/TD]
[TD]94[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]2/8/14[/TD]
[TD]Robert B. Lewis[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Santa Anita Park</center>[/TD]
[TD]Candy Boy[/TD]
[TD]96[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2/15/14[/TD]
[TD]El Camino Real Derby[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M (S)[/TD]
[TD]<center>Golden Gate</center>[/TD]
[TD]Tamarando[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]2/17/14[/TD]
[TD]Southwest[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Oaklawn Park</center>[/TD]
[TD]Tapiture[/TD]
[TD]98[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Kentucky Derby Championship Series

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH]<center>Date</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Race</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Distance</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Track</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Winner</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>Beyer</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>1st</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>2nd</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>3rd</center>[/TH]
[TH]<center>4th</center>[/TH]
[TH]Charts & Analysis[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]2/22/14[/TD]
[TD]Risen Star[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Fair Grounds</center>[/TD]
[TD]Intense Holiday[/TD]
[TD]97[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2/22/14[/TD]
[TD]Fountain of Youth[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Gulfstream</center>[/TD]
[TD]Wildcat Red[/TD]
[TD]101[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]3/1/14[/TD]
[TD]Gotham[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Aqueduct</center>[/TD]
[TD]Samraat[/TD]
[TD]96[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3/8/14[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay Derby[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Tampa Bay Downs</center>[/TD]
[TD]Ring Weekend[/TD]
[TD]94[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]3/8/14[/TD]
[TD]San Felipe[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Santa Anita</center>[/TD]
[TD]California Chrome[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3/15/14[/TD]
[TD]Rebel[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Oaklawn</center>[/TD]
[TD]Hoppertunity[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]3/22/13[/TD]
[TD]Spiral[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M (S)[/TD]
[TD]<center>Turfway</center>[/TD]
[TD]We Miss Artie[/TD]
[TD]85[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Chart / Analysis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3/23/14[/TD]
[TD]Sunland Derby[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Sunland Park</center>[/TD]
[TD]Chitu[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Chart[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]3/29/14[/TD]
[TD]Florida Derby[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Gulfstream Park</center>[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3/29/14[/TD]
[TD]UAE Derby[/TD]
[TD]1 3/16M (S)[/TD]
[TD]<center>Meydan</center>[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]3/29/14[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Fair Grounds</center>[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4/5/14[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Aqueduct</center>[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]4/5/14[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Santa Anita</center>[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4/12/14[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas Derby[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M[/TD]
[TD]<center>Oaklawn Park</center>[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #f3f2f1"]
[TD]4/12/14[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass[/TD]
[TD]1 1/8M (S)[/TD]
[TD]<center>Keeneland</center>[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4/19/14[/TD]
[TD]Lexington[/TD]
[TD]1 1/16M (S)[/TD]
[TD]<center>Keeneland</center>[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
[h=2]Kentucky Derby 2014 point standings[/h]Leader board for qualifying points to the 2014 Kentucky Derby, which will be run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on Saturday, May 3, 2014. Points are earned by the top four finishers in designated Kentucky Derby prep races. Earnings in non-restricted stakes races serve as a tie-breaker.
[TABLE="class: ckeditor-styled-table, width: 100%"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH="width: 5%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Rank[/TH]
[TH="width: 30%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Horse[/TH]
[TH="width: 30%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Trainer[/TH]
[TH="width: 10%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Points[/TH]
[TH="width: 10%, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center"]Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="border-top-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px;">[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]We Miss Artie[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]$544,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Samraat[/TD]
[TD]Rick Violette Jr.[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]$450,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Hoppertunity[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]$376,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Chitu[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]$440,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Intense Holiday[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]$327,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Midnight Hawk[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]$320,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Wildcat Red[/TD]
[TD]Jose Garrafalo[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]$410,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Ring Weekend[/TD]
[TD]H. Graham Motion[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]$210,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]California Chrome[/TD]
[TD]Art Sherman[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]$182,250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Tapiture[/TD]
[TD]Steve Asmussen[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]$420,738[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]t-11[/TD]
[TD]Albano[/TD]
[TD]Larry Jones[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]$150,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]t-11[/TD]
[TD]Uncle Sigh[/TD]
[TD]Gary Contessa[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]$150,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Vinceremos[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]$190,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Vicar's in Trouble[/TD]
[TD]Mike Maker[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]$160,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]General a Rod[/TD]
[TD]Mike Maker[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]$140,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]Ride on Curlin[/TD]
[TD]Billy Gowan[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]$154,387[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Havana[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]$660,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]Cairo Prince[/TD]
[TD]Kiaran McLaughlin[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]$470,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Kristo[/TD]
[TD]John Sadler[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]$56,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]Coastline[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]$129,679[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]Tamarando[/TD]
[TD]Jerry Holldendorfer[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]$495,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]Strong Mandate[/TD]
[TD]D. Wayne Lukas[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]$472,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]Rise Up[/TD]
[TD]Tom Amoss[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$786,633[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]Candy Boy[/TD]
[TD]John Sadler[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$260,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]In Trouble[/TD]
[TD]Tony Dutrow[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$170,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]Noble Moon[/TD]
[TD]Leah Gyarmati[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$145,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]Ami's Holiday[/TD]
[TD]Josie Carroll[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$136,145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]Tanzanite Cat[/TD]
[TD]Cody Autrey[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$111,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]Commissioner[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$104,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]Cleburne[/TD]
[TD]Dale Romans[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$102,044[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]Surfing USA[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$35,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]Conquest Titan[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]$180,495[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]Casiguapo[/TD]
[TD]Mario Morales[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$271,050[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]Financial Mogul[/TD]
[TD]Rick Violette, Jr[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$93,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]Classic Giacnroll[/TD]
[TD]Lisa Guerrero[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$62,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]East Hall[/TD]
[TD]Bill Kaplan[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$47,550[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]Asserting Bear[/TD]
[TD]Reade Baker[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$31,432[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]Schoolofhardknocks[/TD]
[TD]David Hofmans[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$18,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]Scotland[/TD]
[TD]Tony Dutrow[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$45,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]Big Bazinga[/TD]
[TD]Katerina Vassilieva[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$44,469[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]Laddie Boy[/TD]
[TD]Chuck Peery[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$42,599[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]Smart Cover[/TD]
[TD]Dale Romans[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$38,418[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]Enterprising[/TD]
[TD]Tom Proctor[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$91,100[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]Arctic Slope[/TD]
[TD]Ken McPeek[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$47,572[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]Wicked Strong[/TD]
[TD]Jimmy Jerkens[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$40,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]Gold Hawk[/TD]
[TD]Steve Asmussen[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$28,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]Awesome Sky[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]$16,819[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]Diamond Bachelor[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Biancone[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$92,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]Rum Point[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$30,250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]Almost Famous[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Byrne[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$28,579[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]Matuszak[/TD]
[TD]Bill Mott[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$22,667[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]Son of a Preacher[/TD]
[TD]Bret Calhoun[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$11,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]Buck Magic[/TD]
[TD]Dave Fawkes[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$8,410[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #F3F2F1"]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]I'll Wrap It Up[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]$6,000[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Sidelined/Inactive/Not Triple Crown Nominated: Harry's Holiday (20, $150,596), Honor Code (14, 300,000), Bond Holder (11, $333,000), New Year's Day (10, $1,100,000),Top Billing (10, $40,000), Dance with Fate (8, $150,000), Rebranded (5,), Smarty's Echo (4, $82,000), Walt (4, $45,857), Go Greeley (2, $220,601), Roman Unbridled (2, $113,000), Rankhasprivileges (2, $100,250), Ontology (2, $77,250), Can the Man (1, $111,000), and Puppy Manners (1, $18,000
 
Well we finished up the final 2 50 point preps this weekend and we have 2 more winners who ran very nice races, but whose form frankly does not suggest they will be able to go the mile and a quarter over the Churchill dirt. The entire prep season has been dominated by what appear to be sprinters or milers stretching to get the 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles over mostly speed favoring tracks or those winning the preps over the synthetic while showing no to little dirt form. The points leader at this time, We Miss Artie, has run in 3 stakes over dirt and has finished 6th, 7th and 8th in those races.

The horse I was leaning towards picking as my early derby horse, Tapiture, is being trained by a guy who just saw his Hall of Fame nomination be revoked and who had to fire his top long time assistant after an undercover PETA video put the spotlight on the dark side of the sport and charges of animal cruelty and doping and included video of D. Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens talking about using buzzers.

So now 6-7 weeks out we have a wide open field for the Run for the Roses and quite frankly anything can happen and maybe it's an omen they just released a movie about a horse that won the Derby at 50-1, Mine That Bird, as I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of that come the first Saturday in May.
 
[TABLE="width: 620"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Points [/TD]
[TD]Last Race[/TD]
[TD]Next Race[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]We Miss Artie[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]1st Spiral[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Samraat[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]1st Gotham[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Hoppertunity[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]1st Rebel[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby or Arkansas Derby? Ky Derby?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Chitu[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]1st Sunland Derby[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Intense Holiday[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]1st Risen Star[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Midnight Hawk[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]2d Sunland Derby[/TD]
[TD]Another prep?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Wildcat Red[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]1st Fountain of Youth[/TD]
[TD]Florida Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Ring Weekend[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]1st Tampa Bay Derby[/TD]
[TD]Calder Derby?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]California Chrome[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]1st San Felipe[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Tapiture[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]2d Rebel[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11 - t[/TD]
[TD]Albano[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]2d Risen Star[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11 - t[/TD]
[TD]Uncle Sigh[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]2d Gotham[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Vinceremos[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]2d Tampa Bay Derby[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Vicar's in Trouble[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]3d Risen Star[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Harry's Holiday[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]2d Spiral[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass or Lexington?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]General a Rod[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]2d Fountain of Youth[/TD]
[TD]Florida Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Ride On Curlin[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]3d Rebel[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]Havana[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]2d BC Juvenile[/TD]
[TD]Last work Feb. 23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Cairo Prince[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]1st Holy Bull[/TD]
[TD]Florida Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]Kristo[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]3d San Felipe[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]Coastline[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]3d Spiral[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass or Lexington?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]Tamarando[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]8th Spiral[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]Strong Mandate[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]4th Rebel[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]Rise Up[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]7th Risen Star[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]Candy Boy[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]1st Robert B. Lewis[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]In Trouble[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3d Gotham[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby or Wood Memorial[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]Noble Moon[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]1st Jerome[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]Ami's Holiday[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3d Display[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas Derby?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]Tanzanite Cat[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]8th Sunland Derby[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]Commissioner[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3d Sunland Derby[/TD]
[TD]Another prep?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]Cleburne[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]1st Iroquois[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]Surfing U S A[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3d Tampa Bay Derby[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]Conquest Titan[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]4th Tampa Bay Derby[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]Dance with Fate[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]2d El Camino RealDerby[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]Casiguapo[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5th GP Allowance[/TD]
[TD]Last work March 13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]Financial Mogul[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]4th Gotham[/TD]
[TD]Looks like Wood Memorial[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]Classic Giacnroll[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]7th Private Terms[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]East Hall[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]8th Tampa Bay Derby[/TD]
[TD]Florida Derby or Calder Derby or Blue Grass[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]Asserting Bear[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]4th Spiral[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass or Lexington[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]Schoolofhardrocks[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]4th San Felipe[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]Scotland[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]1st PARX Allowance[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]Big Bazinga[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]5th Spiral[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass or Lexington[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]Laddie Boy[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]5th John Battaglia Memorial[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]Smart Cover[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]12th Spiral[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]Enterprising[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1st Pasadena[/TD]
[TD]Might be on dirt[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]Arctic Slope[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]7th Spiral[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]Wicked Strong[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4th GP Allowance[/TD]
[TD]Last work March 11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]Gold Hawk[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5th Risen Star[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]Awesome Sky[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4th OP MSW[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]Diamond Bachelor[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]4th Pasadena[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]Rum Point[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3d SA Allowance[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]Almost Famous[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]11th Spiral[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]Matuszak[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3d Private Terms[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]Son of a Preacher[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]9th Risen Star[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]Buck Magic[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]4th GP MSW[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]I'll Wrap It Up[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]8th El Camino Real Derby[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]OTHERS[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]ALPHABETICAL ORDER[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Anchor Down[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st GP allowance[/TD]
[TD]Florida Derby?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Bayern[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st SA allowance[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby or Arkansas Derby?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Big Tire[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st SA MSW[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Bobby's Kitten[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st TAM allowance[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Chas's Legacy[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st CD MSW[/TD]
[TD]Last work March 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Chelios[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st SA MSW[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Commanding Curve[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]6th Risen Star[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Dublin Up[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]3d SA MSW[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Friendswith K Mill[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]2d SA allowance[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Gala Award[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st Palm Beach[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Giovanni Boldini[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]2d BC Juvenile Turf[/TD]
[TD]UAE Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Global View[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]2d TAM allowance[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Harpoon[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]5th Gotham[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Indianapolis[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st San Pedro[/TD]
[TD]Last work Feb. 5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Kid Cruz[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st Private Terms[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Louies Flower[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]12th Southwest[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Matador[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]5th Tampa Bay Derby[/TD]
[TD]Florida Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Matterhorn[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]10th GP allowance[/TD]
[TD]Aqueduct allowance March 28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Medal Count[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]5th Fountain of Youth[/TD]
[TD]Future on turf[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Mexikoma[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]3d GP allowance[/TD]
[TD]Peter Pan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Mr Speaker[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]2d Palm Beach[/TD]
[TD]Off worktab last weekend[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Social Inclusion[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st GP allowance race[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Spot[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st Swale[/TD]
[TD]Florida Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Storming Inti[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]3d Palm Beach[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass or Lexington?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]The Admiral[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st SA allowance[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Tonalist[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]2d GP allowance[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial or Calder Derby or allowance[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Victory Nor Defeat[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st GP MSW[/TD]
[TD]Blue Grass or Lexington?[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Alright, we kick it up a notch tomorrow with the first 3 100 point races on the Road to the Derby. Don't ask me about the UAE Derby, I have no idea about the Meydan races, other than the US horses shipped over there usually don't perform well.

On the other hand, we should learn a lot about the prospects of several interesting horses, including one of the current Derby favorites, and also gain some insight into how the New York horses might fare with the transfer of In Trouble into the Louisiana Derby.

First the surprisingly compact field of eight for the Florida Derby:

FRONT RUNNERS

1 Wildcat Red
and 6 General Arod - These two basically went right to the front and dueled the entire 8.5 furlongs in the Fountain of Youth, finishing a neck apart and two lengths clear of Top Billing on what was a very speed favoring track. I would have to see evidence earlier in the day that we won't be seeing the exact same type of track on Saturday before assuming this race could start out exactly the same way. At 23&1, 46 flat and 1:10 flat they were setting pretty solid fractions and yet no one was able to really close on them. Really can't separate these two, the only hope to beating them is that they get tired from a 2nd straight long duel, or that another actor makes it three pressing the front and they all collapse late, or that Cairo Prince or Commissioner is the real deal. Of the two I think the jockey switch on General Arod back to Rosario could be a difference maker.

STALKERS

4 Constitution - Very well thought of Pletcher horse is 2 for 2 with both wins in 2014 as a favorite. There's question as to who he's actually beaten though, will be in against tougher here. Got away with a pretty easy lead in his last, 24&1 and 47&3, but his 7 furlong maiden win showed that he might be quick enough to put serious pressure on the two front runners, which would make all their tasks more difficult. If you like Pletcher at Gulfstream (and who wouldn't?) he's a must use here.

7 Allstar - comes in from Calder where he won 2 of his last 3, including a 7 furlong allowance. Orlando Bocachica has a reputation for bringing home the occasional bomb, but this one looks like he's in way over his head.

8 Spot - Surprise winner of the 7f Swale over No Say Never, who I believe making his first start of the year. Before that finished 8 lengths behind Wildcat Red in the Hutcheson, so I have to think he's a little outclassed here. Has the pedigree to be OK with the stretchout, but he caught a weak field in the Swale and he won't be as lucky here. I'll pass.

3 Cairo Prince - Last seen stylishly romping over Conquest Titan and future graded stakes winner Intense Holiday in the Holy Bull in January. Has 3 wins in 4 starts with his only blemish a nose loss to Honor Code in last year's Remsen. He's got a lot of supporters in the betting public. Just one question to answer: His best speed number is a couple of lengths behind Wildcat Red and General Arod, so will he jump forward off the layoff, or will he level off due to the break in races and need the others to come back to him? He definitely needs points to get the invite in May, so I would expect McLaughlin to have him pretty tight for this one.

MID PACK TYPES

2 Matador - Comes over from Tampa after two OK but out-of-the-money graded stakes efforts. There's conflicting signals with this one as he gets blinkers on to hopefully get off to a better start, but at the same time keeps dawdling jockey Leparoux to ride. 3rd off the layoff and the blinkers might help his cause a bit, but I think he'll need a meltdown to get into the money.

CLOSERS

5 East Hall -
Gave his connections some hope after passing tired horses in the Fountain of Youth to finish 4th. Figuring the track bias worked against him, they sent the colt to Tampa where he did little and finished 8th. So now he's back at the speed track. Not sure why they didn't try Fairgrounds this time, its not that far away. Likes Gulfstream OK but this is his fifth race since January 1st, he might just be tired. No thanks.


This race comes down to the following:

1) Is Cairo Prince fit enough after skipping the Fountain of Youth?
2) Will Wildcat Red and General Arod duel themselves into submission this time?
3) Where will Constitution sit and can he be a force in that last furlong?

My head says Cairo Prince needs the points and has had one of the two most visually impressive wins this year, so he should sit a good trip and get it done here. My gut though says there's no reason why Wildcat Red and General Arod can't duplicate their FOY success. Guess I'm using all 3 in the Rainbow 6 and will make Constitution beat me.
 
If In Trouble wins then the NY horses should be pretty competitive in May. I'm worried about the pace in the La Derby. I think In Trouble will want to go, as will Albano, as will Rise Up with blinkers on. The table is going to be set again for Intense Holiday and if Vicar's in Trouble runs his best he might get first run in the lane. Maybe In Trouble gets that first run if he can rate around two turns, he was able to do that in his two sprint wins.

Those are the five that look like players, the rest would really need to leap far forward here, including Commanding Curve and the other Pletcher, King Cyrus.
 
Was at Gulfstream yesterday and the track was running fairly honest, and not quite the bias it had a few weeks ago, some rain in the forecast today and we'll have to see what, if any! effect that has on the dirt here.

Florida Derby thoughts:

1) Wildcat Red is going to be sent from the rail and play catch me if you can, held on after a tough stretch battle with General a Rod in the FOY, today I think he will be pressured by Constitution. The extra half furlong and the addition of a little more speed here puts Wildcat in a tough spot here, maybe holds on for a price.

2) Matador ships over from Tampa after his first 2 attempts on conventional dirt, passed some rivals in both efforts to finish 4th and 5th there, should get a real good pace to run into from far back, but would need to take a major step forward to contest for the top 2-3 spots here.

3) Cairo Prince sat out the FOY after taking the Holy Bull here back in late January. Probable favorite here has done nothing here in his career winning 3 of 4 and just missing by a nose in the other try. Should get a great setup here sitting behind Wildcat Red, Constitution and probably General a Rod. Morning works have been decent but far from spectacular and the others may a have a bit of a fitness edge here, I will try to beat for the top spot but a must use underneath and in the multirace wagers.

4) Constitution lightly raced horse making only his 3rd career start certainly has the talent to be good but gives up some seasoning and experience to many here, although top jock Castellano in the reins helps. Will be pressuring Wildcat Red on the lead, if he his able to get by that one will then have to hold off Cairo Prince and General a Rod, May be a little too much too soon. Mixed feelings on this one and will use on some tickets and leave off a few others, probably depending on the odds how much I will use, I think he will be shorter than the ML 4-1 but at or above that and he becomes interesting.

5) East Hall late running state bred gelding has been chasing many of these for most of the year, closing decently to come up for 4th in the FOY, should great a great pace setup today, and the little bit of extra distance might enable him to fill out the bottom of some exotics at a big price.

6) General a Rod has been battling the last 2 with Wildcat Red, welcomes the addition of Constitution here to do some of the dirty work in putting pressure on Wildcat Red on the lead. Think Rosario will sit back behind those 2 this time probably slightly ahead of Cairo Prince, like him to make first move on the leaders and my top pick here.

7) Allstar, Calder shipper, taking a shot at the smaller field set to go here. Long shot probably in over his head.


8) Spot winner of the 7furlong Swale, stretches an extra 2 panels but has the breeding to handle it. Has been working out fantastic in the mornings. Should be a little closer today, if flying up front today could make some noise and hit the bottom of the exotics.

I think General a Rod is going to get a great trip along with Cairo Prince and I'll go with the better odds with the more tested of the two. General a Rod over Cairo Prince with Spot, Constitution and East Hall underneath.
 
I'm liking In Trouble down in Louisiana today myself.

and don't miss the best race of the day, the 9th at Aqueduct, the #2, Sanctify, off a great week should be able to get to the lead or just off of it today and think he gets it done today. Of course, I am biased but think his chances increase with me being in Florida.
 
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