CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I'll be going through each of the final nine races on the Saturday Santa Anita 12-race card. The first three races of the day are stakes races, but for this handicapping perspective, I'm going to just settle on trying to get through the Breeders' Cup races. Remember, it is advised to use this only as a guide. Do your own work, bet a proper percentage of your bankroll, and enjoy the full fields and whopping payouts that you can only get on a big race day when much more public money floods all of the parimutuel wagering pools. Here are some of my Win, Exacta and Trifecta suggestions for the card:
Race 4 (First Breeders' Cup race, the Juvenile Fillies)
(1) Feathered broke her maiden by almost 10 lengths in the race before the Frizette, and her speed figure in that Aug. 31 race at 7 furlongs at the Spa ranks up with Angela Renee and is unparalled by any others in this field. The Frizette was on slop, so we'll see if she is able to move forward Saturday. She should show more early speed in here breaking from the rail and if she goes off at anything near her 8-to-1 in the morning, she offers the most value.
(5) Cristina's Journey will break from the 5-hole off of an eight-week layoff as the best Kentucky-based threat in here. She won both of her starts from start to finish for trainer Dale Romans and jockey Miguel Mena, including the 1 1/16 mile Grade II Pocahontas Stakes at 7-to-2 odds at Churchill Downs on Sept. 6. She should be the controlling speed and has a bullet work over the SA course.
(2) Angela Renee was installed as the tepid 3-to-1 favorite in the morning line despite drawing inside. She'll break from the 2-hole with John R. Velazquez aboard looking to win again after taking the Grade I Chandelier at the same distance (1 1/16 miles) and same venue as this race. She is the likely favorite and short priced horses have a history of doing quite well in this race, despite the 2-year old filly status (young horses often show greater propensity of improving rapidly or coming out of nowhere in their 2-year old year).
(12) By the Moon should get a stalking trip and has won a Grade I.
(4) Conquest Eclipse could be there to pick up the pieces late. She ran second to the 2-horse on Sept. 27, failing by 1 1/2 as the 2-to-1 favorite. Trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Corey Nakatani, Conquest Eclipse has finished no worse than third in her three starts and sits at 4-to-1 in the morning line.
The plays: 1 horse to WIN and SHOW at 6-to-1 or better
EXACTAS: 1/5 with 1/5/2/12/4
TRIFECTAS: 1/5/2 with 1/5/2/12/4 with 1/5/2/12/4
Race 5 (Filly & Mare Turf)
This is a deep and talented field; if Dank is going to repeat, she'll have to beat me. It's a wide open race and I'll wave my American flag and give Chad Brown another try on top.
(4) Dayatthespa is the only contender who has won her last two starts. The 5-year old has been lightly raced this campaign for trainer Chad Brown, taking more than eight months off before a small stakes race to tighten her up. She rammed into the gate at the break in the Aug. 24 Yaddo Stakes at Saratoga but still won going away, then won the one-mile Grade I First Lady Stakes at Keeneland. She's 8-to-1 in the morning, but a performance like her effort in the First Lady puts her right in the mix here. She is the lone speed and although better at a mile, should be able to stretch it out here if able to get loose on the lead.
(10) Stephanie's Kitten is the 3-to-1 second choice; she's looking for her second BC win as well, as she captured the 2011 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey. The homebred daughter of legendary Kitten's Joy is off a nice win in the 1 1/4 mile Grade I Flower Bowl Invitational on Sept. 27 at Belmont Park. Her time of 2:01 there would more than fit in here, as traditionally times in southern California are faster than in New York, and her speed figure supports that, despite Emollient getting a faster time in winning the Grade I Rodeo Drive the same day at Santa Anita. She should be coming at them late and is off a career-best effort.
(5) Secret Gesture has placed in all four races this year (despite not winning) against Group competition. She was beaten a neck in a Group 2 two-back and was third in a Group 1 behind Ribbons. Note the jockey switch to Smullen. She can get a piece.
(2) Just the Judge is an Irish-bred who has had two good starts since coming to the states. She'll be in the middle of the pack and can get a good trip for Jamie Spencer. She's trying this spot on just 12 days rest after winning a Grade I at Woodbine. In her previous start on Aug. 16, Just the Judge finished third in the Beverly D Stakes, which Dank won last year as her key prep before winning this race.
The plays: 4 horse to WIN and SHOW at 7-to-1 or better
EXACTAS: 4/10 with 4/10/5/2
TRIFECTAS: 4/10 with 4/10/5/2 with 4/10/5/2
Race 6 (Filly & Mare Sprint)
(6) Leigh Court has been a beast in her two starts this year and is 3-for-3 at seven furlongs; she should get a stalking trip and is as versatile as they come, winning as a stalker, wiring the field, winning on synthetic and dirt. She won the TCA (G-II) at Keeneland last out, a prep race that has produced the last five winners of this race.
(1) Sweet Reason is another that ships in from the east coast; she ran in the Juvenile Fillies with Artemis Agrodera last year as well, running a close fourth as the favorite. Since then, her connections have cut her back to a mile in her first four starts this year or less. She beat the best this summer, winning the Grade I Acord and Grade I Test at Belmont and Saratoga, before trying to go 1 1/16 and getting beaten by the classy Untapable in the Grade I Cotillion at Parx on Sept. 20. She's cutting back to a sprint (2-for-2 at seven furlongs) and is due to improve.
(5) Artemis Agrotera is one that seems the best horse in here to me. I cannot ignore the New York breds going 1-for-53 in Breeders' Cup races, and the price will likely be too short to use on top.
(7) Judy the Beauty ran a strong second in this race last year to Groupie Doll and has three wins in four starts in 2014. That includes two Grade III stakes and the Grade I Madison Stakes. She'll be coming off an 11-week layoff but if she's at her best, will be very tough to beat. She loves Santa Anita, as well.
The plays: 6 horse to WIN and SHOW at 5-to-2 or better
EXACTAS: 6/1 with 6/1/5/7
TRIFECTAS: 6/1 with 6/1/5/7 with 6/1/5/7
Race 7 (Turf Sprint)
No better way to kick off the Pick-6 than with this downhill turf race that starts with a right turn, then after the horses turn left and are homeward bound, they cross briefly over the main track for a few paces before the final 300 meters or so. Because of the quirky start, the outside post positions here have a decided edge over the inside ones. This is the main reason why I'm throwing out popular "horse for the course" Reneesgotzip (the 1) who ran third two years ago and second last year to the wonderful Mizdirection.
(14) No Nay Never, like Reneesgotzip, has had this race circled and the 3-year-old looms large; he won all three of his starts at age 2 (one at Keeneland, the other in a Group 2 and a Group 1, both in Europe). He was beaten by 2 1/2 lengths in the Grade II Swale for his only career loss, and not coincidentally, his only career race on dirt. No Nay Never won by a half-length in his only other start, the Oct. 4 Grade III Woodford at Keeneland. The always-entertaining Frankie Dettori gets the ride for Wesley Ward and will break from the favorable outside post.
(5) Ambitious Brew is another horse for the course; he's raced just three times this year and went a full seven months between races before losing the Grade III Eddie D as a favorite by a nose to Home Run Kitten, who is also in here. He's 3-for-4 on this turf course and should be flying late.
(4) Tightend Touchdown will also figure prominently in this one shipping back in from the east coast, where he ran all four of his races in 2014. Tightend Touchdown gets back the services of Javier Castellano, who rode him to his only win this year and in this race last year. He ran second in this event last year and is coming into it off a similar form.
(6) Bobby's Kitten is coming back off a 7-week layoff and will try this distance for the first time. The 3-year old could be up against it; his last effort on the Santa Anita grass was the BC Juvenile Turf last year, where he ran third as the 6-to-5 favorite. Since then, he's ran six times this year with two wins, but in no races shorter than a mile. Joel Rosario will have to get him in it early, but he's used to running with the lead.
The plays: 14 horse to WIN and SHOW at 3-to-1 or better.
EXACTAS: 14/5 with 14/5/4/6
TRIFECTAS: 14/5 with 14/5/4/6 with 14/5/4/6
Race 8 (Juvenile)
This might be a good spot for a single in your multi-race exotics, but you never know with these 2-year olds...
(9) Carpe Diem was an impressive last out winner in a Grade I at Keeneland in his first try at a route, pressing the early pace before drawing clear to win by 6-plus lengths last out. The colt sold for $1.6 million earlier this year at Ocala and will be trainer Todd Pletcher's first bullet (Daredevil is the other) in here. He has preferred No. 1 jockey John R. Velazquez riding this colt. Like Daredevil, Carpe Diem is 2-for-2 in his short career, winning as a favorite both times for Winstar Farms and Stonestreet Stables. Price will be light, which is the one downside here.
(8) Souper Colossal rates a look after going 3-for-3 at Monmouth Park to open his career. This spot represents a big class jump, especially when considering the War Front colt never went off at odds higher than 3-to-2 in any of his starts and won the three by a combined 11 lengths. That said, the colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and he blazed through a five furlong over the main track (57.2 on Oct. 27). If you can get anything near 10-to-1, there's probably value there.
(11) One Lucky Dane is sent out by three-time Juvenile winner Bob Baffert. This is his second-stringer (or was) in this spot, as American Pharoah was the likely post-time favorite before scratching earlier this week because of an injury. Baffert won this race last year with New Year's Day and remember that he was dismissed as second-best in the barn behind Tap It Rich, who ran fifth at 3-1. The Lookin At Lucky colt broke his maiden on the Santa Anita dirt last out wired the field, drawing away to win by 9 1/2 lengths. If he has speed or a stalking style, he'll be tough in here at anything resembling 8-to-1 or better.
(1) Calculator will intrigue those who thought American Pharoah was far and away the class in here. He's ran second to that ridgling in each of the last two stakes, and his speed rating seems to suggest he'll fit right in without having to worry about his nemesis. Elvis Trujillo will get the mount for the In Summation colt, who is 0-for-4, and will break from the rail. He also lost to One Lucky Dane by a nose three-back, so those two would seem to be close together if they've matured at the same rate since then - a big 'if'.
(13) Upstart closed well in the slop last time out and will be coming later. He could relish the fast track, but you'll need to monitor the track bias today before throwing any closers on top. Last year, it played to a big speed-bias Friday but was more fair on Saturday. His chances go up today if that happens again. He won each of his two starts on fast tracks before losing to Daredevil in the Champagne on an off track.
(12) Daredevil could end up the chalk if Pletcher's first choice isn't, but I see little value on him in this spot and will only use underneath.
The plays: 9 horse to WIN only at 2-to-1 or better
EXACTAS: 9 with 8/11/1/13/12
9/8 with 9/8/11/1
TRIFECTAS: 9 with 8/11/1/13/12 with 8/11/1/13/12
8/11/1/13/12 with 9 with 8/11/1/13/12
9/8 with 9/8/11/1 with 9/8/11/1
Race 9 (Turf)
The Europeans have dominated this race more than they have the Ryder Cup in recent meetings. Seven of the last nine Turf winners were Euros (and 12 of the last 15) and four of the last five Turf winners came back from off-the-board finishes in their final prep.
(1) Telescope will be sent out by Sir Michael Stoute, who has eyeballed Highclere Thoroughbred Racing's 4-year old toward Santa Anita's firm course since Telescope ran all the way around the track in third in the Group 1 Juddmonte International at York on Aug. 20. The four-time Turf winning trainer (1996, 2000, 2008, 2009) will have Ryan Moore aboard again for the dual Group II-winning Irish bred breaking from the rail Saturday. He was sent off as the favorite two back in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot but had to settle for second, three lengths behind Taghrooda. The colt has run well on firmer footing which he will get today and adds lasix.
(7) Flintshire ran a career best last out in a solid runner up finish in the Group 1 Arc de Triomphe behind Treve, who won her second straight Arc. The colt was beaten just two lengths in the 20 horse field. Flintshire has a Group 1 win and his trainer Andre Fabre has won the Turf twice, with In the Wings in 1990 and Shirocco in 2005.
(4) Brown Panther is the 6-year-old son of the aforementioned Shirocco. He came into the Oct. 19 Pattison Canadian International at Woodbine as the morning line favorite before acting up at the gate before the race and forcing a scratch, so he might only be in here by accident! The British-bred's last race was a win in the Group 1 Irish St. Leger at 1 3/4 miles Sept. 14 at the Curragh at 14-to-1 odds. Former English striker Michael Owen is an owner and Thomas Descombe trains. He's been in the money in all six starts in 2014, runs well fresh and should be coming late.
(2) Twilight Eclipse has been in company with (12) Main Sequence and (3) Imagining in each of the last three races, never being able to get by Main Sequence up to this point (lose to that rival by one length combined in all 3 races). He'll offer a fancy price if he can get by that rival and the other European competition.
The plays: 1 horse to WIN at 3-to-1 or better
EXACTAS: 1/7 with 1/7/4/2/12
TRIFECTAS: 1 with 7/4/2/12 with 7/4/2/12
7/4/2/12 with 1 with 7/4/2/12
1/7/4 with 1/7/4/2/12 with 1/7/4/2/12
Race 10 (Sprint)
California-based runners have a big edge in here based on prior performances; I believe they've won six of the last seven Sprints. That's probably why you won't see anything close to the 9-to-2 morning line on Secret Circle, the defending champion. I'll try to beat him, but am not enthusiastic about it.
(10) Big Macher returns to his favorite venue and I'm giving him a mulligan for his effort in the G-II Pat O'Brien, where he ran a flat sixth at Del Mar. He had won three of his last four prior to that, including the G-II Potrero Grande at Santa Anita and has never been out of the exacta in five trips on that dirt. He'll be stalking and get a good run off the turn to try and charge by them all, and his price will end up being more than fair after the last effort.
(6) Rich Tapestry paid $16.40 for a $2 win ticket after arriving in California just a few days prior from Hong Kong to nail the field in the Grade-I Santa Anita Sprint Championship after a five-month layoff. He'll be the first horse with connections to Hong Kong to compete in any Breeders' Cup race. Rich Tapestry is 2-1-0 in four starts this year overall, including a win on the synthetic stuff at Meydan in Dubai at this 6 furlong distance. The 6-year old has not had a great career, having been in the money in just 12 of 27 starts lifetime, but must be respected off the last win and has now won on turf, synthetic and dirt.
(12) Fast Anna should be the one to catch, and in a 6 furlong race, he might not stop. Fast Anna has two wins and two seconds in his career in just four starts. The Kathy Ritvo trainee is a son of Medaglia d'Oro, out of 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Dreaming of Anna. Frank Calabrese is the owner/breeder of both Fast Anna and his dam, while Ritvo conditioned Mucho Macho Man to win the 2013 BC Classic. Fast Anna drilled five-eighths of a mile in a sizzling 57 seconds Oct. 26. John R. Velazquez rides from the 12 hole.
(4) Secret Circle prepped for this race the same this year as he did before winning it last year, with just a couple of starts and second-off-a-layoff after that third behind Rich Tapestry in the last-out stakes for both. That was his first start in eight months and while I respect his connections and his really solid recent workouts, I'll try to beat him at a short price here. He's won 7-of-11 lifetime, but is a maiden in 2014.
(11) Bakken might be worth a look at a price; the Chad Brown trainee is 3-for-5 lifetime but 0-for-2 in stakes races, so I'll try him on the bottom of a few tickets.
(5) Private Zone is another in the short-priced 6-to-1 range that could threaten. He beat Palace in the Vosburgh, but that was his first win in three starts this year after he ran a disappointing 10th in last year's BC Sprint at less than 7-to-2 odds. Will he be better Saturday?
The plays: 10 horse to WIN and SHOW at 9-to-1 or better
EXACTAS: 10/6/12 with 10/6/12/4/11/5
TRIFECTAS: 10/6/12 with 10/6/12/4 with 10/6/12/4/11/5
Race 11 (Mile)
See earlier Ryder Cup comments regarding the Euros and these grass races; I'll be banking on the American horses to simply not be good enough to get a share at eight furlongs on grass. Wise Dan's out here, so you can be sure the foreigners want to take this crown back overseas after a three-year hiatus.
(9) Anodin is a full brother to three-time Mile winner, the great mare Goldikova. He had a tough trip on Arc de Triomphe Day and has been very close to some solid winners, but is 0-for-5 this year. His second by a head to Charming Spirit was an impressive result in the Group 1 Qatar Prix de Moulin de Longchamp last out. Freddy Head shipped the Irish-bred Anodin over for breeders Alain and Gerard Wertheimer and will come out of the 9-hole in what's expected to be a full 14 horse field. He'll offer a fair price, and having run in four Group 1's this year in five starts and never finishing worse than fifth, we'll see if the Euro contingent's class takes them over the top here. If so, he just needs to reverse a two-length loss to Toronado three back.
(5) Toronado is a gaudy morning line favorite with the defection of two-time champ Wise Dan, and has a good chance of going off at less than his listed 5-to-2 in the morning line. The Irish-bred is a worthy favorite who has had a strong season to this point. He won the Queen Anne Stakes this spring for Richard Hannon. Richard Hughes will ride for Al Shaqab Racing. He has been in the exacta in nine of 11 career starts and should take to the firm ground. In addition, he's lightly-raced (just three times this year) and adds lasix for the first time. He'll be tough.
(4) Mustajeeb is a British-bred with multiple Group 3 wins. He was sharp in his return from a summer vacation and could be the foreigner that offers a price if he runs near his best coming out of the No. 4 hole for trainer Dermot Weld. His stalking style should fit well here and he'll add lasix.
(14) Karakontie, a two-time Group 1 winner, had a horrible trip when running 11th in the same prep Anodin got second in, but the Japanese-bred will be dangerous if he can find the form that helped him win the French 2000 Guineas for trainer Jonathan Pease.
(7) Kaigun ended second in the Woodbine Mile to (8) Trade Storm, but he had to go through a lot of traffic and rallied late. He could be a threat, but has no Grade I wins to his credit. He did lose by less than a length to Wise Dan earlier this year in the Maker's 46 Mile at Keeneland
The plays: 9 horse to WIN and SHOW at 9-to-2 or better
EXACTAS: 9/5/4 with 9/5/4/14/7
TRIFECTAS: 9/5 with 9/5/4/14/7 with 9/5/4/14/7
9/5/4/14/7 with 9/5 with 9/5/4/14/7
Race 12 (Classic)
Most suckers believe that it's always fun to go into the last leg of the Pick-6 with several live bullets in the chamber. This is the one race that I believe most strongly in, so I will have several multi-race exotic tickets singling this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. I also like the 3-year olds here; most older horses in training right now that need to get the Classic distance of 10 furlongs just simply aren't very good.
(13) California Chrome is my pick on top, and my favorite selection of the day. Sure, there will be money to come against him for (6) Shared Belief, (11) Tonalist and others. But there are two things that California Chrome will have working in his favor today after losing his last two. First of all, the whole field won't be gunning for him like they were when he was a beaten fourth by less than two lengths when denied his bid at a Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. He stumbled at the start there and brushed a rival at the gate coming out of the 2-hole. The connections gave the 3-year old champion candidate a well-deserved break before running him back at Parx Racing on Sept. 20 in the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby. There, like in New York, he was trapped down on the inside with no room for jockey Victor Espinoza to maneuver and lacking any reponse after breaking from the rail. He's been favored in each of last six starts this year, but the fickle racing community will see two losses in a row and might send him off at 5-to-1 or better here (or so I hope). What I see is a horse who gets to start outside of everyone and a field that won't be mindful of only California Chrome. He was the best 3-year old in training throughout the first half of the year. Dating to his last start of 2013 (in the last-ever stakes race at the now-closed Hollywood Park), he has never gone off at higher than 5-to-2, which will change in this spot. He's also well rested, with just the Parx race since the June 7 Belmont.
(5) V.E. Day was the winner of this year's Grade I Travers at Saratoga. He'll have to run up to that level to have a chance in here. He was bumped at the start and lost all chance last out in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. Before that, he'd won four in a row dating to a maiden race on May 10.
(12) Candy Boy is going to be a big overlay. His only start at 12 furlongs came in the Kentucky Derby, where he broke from post position No. 17 and the Churchill Downs auxiliary gate. He had a real tough trip that day and that was his only lifetime effort worse than fourth. He's got one win this year in six starts but was in the money the other four races outside of the Derby. He owns a win on this surface (in the Grade II Robert Lewis, a February Derby prep) and reunites with jockey Corey Nakatani, who rode him in the West Virginia Derby (beaten a nose by Tapiture).
(11) Tonalist must be respected. He beat older last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, a traditionally good prep race for this event. He had to avoid a fallen jockey, was on hold behind rivals, found a hole and split them to draw off late for a stylish win. I have to wonder how good that field was, however. He does like to come from out of it a bit and with Moreno and Bayern up front, there will be a hot pace to come at. Keep an eye on the track bias.
(6) Shared Belief has done little wrong for owner Jim Rome. The 3-year old gelding picked a slight knock at the start of the year and was forced out of training during the early months of the year and off the Triple Crown trail. Shared Belief has never left the state of California, and has been favored in all four of his starts in 2014, the last three of which were graded states races. He's 7-for-7 lifetime and won his only previous start at Santa Anita, which was his last race, the 1 1/16 Grade I Awesome Again. That win by a neck was the first time that Shared Belief didn't win by at least 2 3/4 lengths in career, and this field will be tougher than anything he's ever faced. He'll be the favorite, and at something close to 2-to-1, will be worth trying to beat on top.
(8) Zivo is considered by some to be the best older horse in training, so we'll give him a token play on bottom. The 5-year old will make a case for Older Horse of the Year at the Eclipse Awards with a good effort here. Zivo ran second to Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and strung together six wins in a row from late last year through July 5, mostly in smaller stakes. The 13-to-1 score in the Grade II Suburban Handicap at Belmont in that July 5 race was his crowning achievement, but he's 0-for-2 since, although the loss to Tonalist wasn't bad and showed he's willing to run on and should be closing late.
The plays: 13 to WIN at 3-to-1 or better
EXACTAS: 13 with 5/12/11/6/8
13/5 with 13/5/12/11/6/8
13/12 with 13/5/12/11/6/8
TRIFECTAS: 13 with 5/12/11/6/8 with 5/12/11/6/8
5/12/11/6/8 with 13 with 5/12/11/6/8
13/5/12 with 13/5/12/11/6/8 with 13/5/12/11/6/8
GL today!
