Rexy's Bowl Thread...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
The 2015-16 bowl season kicks off Saturday with five games. For entertainment purposes, there’s really only one to focus on (the Las Vegas Bowl), but if you’re reading this then you probably watch the games for more than entertainment, and likely will want to have a “sweat” on either side or on the total.




New Mexico Bowl


The host Lobos are bowling again for first time since 2007 so you can be reasonably convinced that they’ll give a good effort in front of their Albuquerque contingent in the lidlifter of the 40 bowls. Kudos to Bob Davie for guiding the Lobos to a 7-5 season. Arizona slumped to a disappointing 6-6 season that was effectively sabotaged by injuries that started in early September and never really stopped.


A case could be made that the Wildcats won’t likely show up, especially considering that they played in the Fiesta Bowl last season. That said, they do boast all-everything linebacker Scooby Wright and will get him back for the first time since early in the season. Quarterback Anu Soloman had a bit of a sophomore slump but has been dealing with symptoms of a concussion on and off this season as well; he’s expected to start.


The Wildcats will likely do enough to win, especially since they’ll have the best two players on the field, but I can’t see them getting over a two-score number to get the cash. Sharp on both sides; not interested.


Prediction: Arizona 34, New Mexico 30





Las Vegas Bowl


This is the game to see on Saturday. The “Holy War” was one of the most hotly-contested rivalries in football until Utah jumped to the Pac-XII and after going to a 9-game league schedule in 2013, didn’t play the Cougars after that year. The teams didn’t meet in 2014, but will face off in this game, and in the second game of the 2016 regular season.


Utah defensive tackle Seni Fauonuku called Brigham Young a “dirty team” at a dinner in Vegas were both squads were present Wednesday night. BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall will be seeking his 100th win at BYU in this game, his last at the school. He’s already taken the head coaching job at Virginia. BYU grad Kyle Whittingham took over at Utah after Urban Meyer left for Florida, and he’s beaten the Cougars six of the nine times he’s faced them, covering seven out of nine. The Cougars have lost the last four series meetings by 1, 44, 3 and 7 points, respectively. This will probably be a close one, down-to-the-wire, decided-by-one-key-play kind of games. Nothing for me.


Prediction: Utah 27, Brigham Young 23











Camellia Bowl


Appalachian State heads to Montgomery, Ala., for its first bowl in school history. The Mountaineers are no strangers to the postseason, having won the Division I-AA national championship three times in their 17 playoff appearances from 1989-2012. Ohio U. is a frequent Mid-American Conference bowler, as Frank Solich goes to his seventh bowl as Bobcat coach since he took the position in Athens in 2005.


Appalachian State ended the season 10-2 and are a worthy favorite. The only real bad loss was a 40-27 home defeat to eventual Sun Belt champion Arkansas State. Star running back Marcus Cox and dual-threat quarterback Taylor Lamb will be featured, but there is more to like for the Bobcats here. They forced 20 fumbles to help pace the Bobcats to a plus-5 number in turnover margin.


Ohio U. won eight games in the Mid-American Conference this season, while Appalachian State went 10-2 in the Sun Belt. Will be entertaining to see if the Sun Belt’s top tier of teams have passed up some of the better MAC sides. PS - I don't think so, just yet.



Also, if there were ever a team that needed 25 days between games, it was OU. The Bobcats won their last three but have playing banged up all season; the third-string quarterback played in TEN games. Solich has said that most of his key players will be ready to go Saturday.


Prediction: Ohio U. 30, Appalachian State 26
The play: Ohio U +7.5 for 2.5u med to big






Cure Bowl


This game is a true degenerate special. It pits 6-6 Georgia State against 5-7 San Jose State. The Panthers won their last four Sun Belt games to get eligible for this event; the embarrassing loss to Charlotte at home to start the season has all been forgotten as GSU got the money in seven straight games to end the season. With the game being in nearly Orlando, you can be sure the Panther fans will be at full throat for the first-ever bowl appearance for Georgia State.


San Jose State was likely the last team accepted to any bowl, and even if the Spartans win, third-year coach Ron Caragher might still not survive a potential offseason purge. Running back Tyler Ervin rushed for 1,469 yards and 15 touchdowns and is the marquee for the California invaders, while quarterback Nick Arbuckle will be winging it from the get-go for GSU; he finished those last seven covers off with at least 300 yards passing in every game. One of my sharpest friends back home has a theory – when two bad teams play, bet the OVER.


Prediction: San Jose State 34, Georgia State 31
The play: OVER 55 small to med 1.5u





New Orleans Bowl

Not much to separate the two teams battling in the New Orleans Bowl. Louisiana Tech was the runner-up in the Conference USA West division, while Arkansas State went unbeaten in Sun Belt play to win that league’s title. The explosive La Tech spread (37 points and 466 yards per game) is deftly piloted by senior Jeff Driskel, a Florida transfer. Kenneth Dixon will be playing on Sundays next fall and had 22 total touchdowns this season.

Arkansas State went 8-0 in the Sun Belt to win the league crown outright for the first time; they’ll face a Louisiana Tech team that probably disappointed a bit in going 8-4.


Arkansas State runs its offense at a quick pace and its senior quarterback Fredi Knighten put up good numbers, as the Red Wolves have gone OVER the total in eight straight games and nine of their last 10. ASU leads the nation with 34 takeaways and interceptions with 26; turnovers could be the difference in what should be a high-scoring affair. In last year’s GoDaddy Bowl, Toledo beat ASU, 63-44. The fast track of the Superdome could lead to another shootout.


Prediction: Louisiana Tech 44, Arkansas State 40
The play: OVER 66 med to big 2.5u

GL!

:shake:
 
Whattup Sexy, i unloaded on Ohio live +13.5 +120 ...are you proud of me senpai?

Thoughts on Georgia St in first bowl game?
 
As always, good stuff, Rex. I hope you find the time to cover the rest of the bowl season.
 
2H Arky State OVER 31 flat for 2u. Jazz seems to have some sharp against me and are taking a stand... to which i say, 'f it, bring it!'...

:cheers:
 
CollegeKingRex said:
2H Arky State OVER 31 flat for 2u. Jazz seems to have some sharp against me and are taking a stand... to which i say, 'f it, bring it!'...

:cheers:
Click to expand...

i got it at 32, once i saw that number.. didnt feel good
was thinking we would see 35
 
[11:00:53 PM] DADD...: 2H Arky State OVER 31 flat for 2.5u
[11:01:15 PM] DADD...: someone bet jazz against me who he thinks is better than me
[11:01:39 PM] DADD...: my agent gonna get dickwhipped by someone i assume mike who is that irresponsible
[11:01:55 PM] DADD...: maybe not tonight but you cannot be that far out of line no matter how much you respect whoever bet UN
[11:02:04 PM] DADD...: i liked OV at 33 flat
[11:02:12 PM] DADD...: so imagine my joy at 31 flat
 
Boise Bowl

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday each feature a pair of games leading into Christmas. The first of the doubleheader on Tuesday comes from Boise, where Akron meets up with Utah State on the blue carpet.

Utah State showed many schizophrenic tendencies this season, but a 1-3 November with four straight losses against the number to end the season left many in Logan disappointed. The Utags had a decent defense most of the year (22[SUP]nd[/SUP], though that number might well have been inflated by the numerous middling offense in the Mountain West Conference in 2015) but the offense was constantly spinning its wheels, finishing just 92[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the country. Longtime quarterback Chuckie Keeton was lost to injury for more than half of the season and even when he came back, he was rusty and struggled against Nevada and BYU.

The Aggies are no strangers to Boise; this will be their fifth trip to this venue since 2011 thanks to bowl games and road games at Boise State. That said, their experience here isn’t necessarily a prerequisite to win. That’s because Akron will undoubtedly be more excited to be here than USU. The Zips are playing in their first bowl game since 2005 and only their second in history. Fourth-year Akron coach Terry Bowden (yes, he of the 1993 Auburn undefeated team) has built a defense that ranks third in the country against the run and seventh overall.

Akron’s offense wasn’t anything to write home about, but it kept the Zips in games. Akron beat up on the dregs of the Mid-American Conference East division in the last month, winning and covering in all of their final four (and seven of their last eight). This one looks like it has the making of two teams going in opposite directions.

Prediction: Akron 24, Utah State 23
The play: Akron +7.5 med 2u

Boca Raton Bowl
The “What Could Have Been” bowl features a 2-loss Toledo against a 10-win Temple – and the ways that these teams got to this point are strikingly similar. Temple was upset by South Florida and lost the AAC title game in Houston, 24-13 in the last few weeks. Toledo got as high as 7-0 and ranked in the top-20 before crushing 5-point losses to Northern Illinois and Western Michigan relegated the Rockets to this spot in the bowl pecking order.

Toledo beat up on Temple 36-13 in the final meeting in 2011 before Temple left the MAC for greener pastures. Each team finished 9-4 in that year, winning its bowl game.

Temple coach Matt Rhule is a bright young mind and will certainly be elsewhere within the next year or two, plying his trade at a Power-5 conference school, and possibly a very good one. The Owls also got to 7-0 and were ranked No. 20 before a loss to Notre Dame. Not shockingly, these teams powered to a 17-6-1 ATS record combined this fall, with Toledo’s marquee win coming as a three-touchdown-plus underdog at Arkansas.

Toledo coach Matt Campbell won MAC coach of the year, and celebrated by taking the same position that was open at Iowa State. Former offensive coordinator Jason Candle will coach this game and is the new Rockets’ head coach. He did a good job this season; while the Owls make things happen with their defense, Toledo’s bread is buttered on offense.

The Rockets were led by Alabama transfer Phillip Ely at quarterback. The senior threw for 2,680 yards and 21 touchdowns in 11 games. Sledgehammer back Kareem Hunt and speedball Terry Swanson combined for 1,769 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns. That sort of balance will come in handy against a stout Temple defense.

The Owls are paced by Bednarik and Nagurski-winning senior linebacker Tyler Matakevich, who will be playing on Sundays in nine months. He has recorded 100 or more tackles in all four of his college seasons! The Rhule (and staff) adjustments at halftime were something to note, as Temple outscored foes 119-32 in the third quarter of all games. That said, Temple’s offense isn’t quite as explosive as Toledo’s, and it would be better off trying to run the ball. Not a good idea against a Rocket defense that ranked 11[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation against the run. It will be a good one, but...

Prediction: Toledo 27, Temple 23
The play: Toledo +135 ML small to med 1.5u

GL today peeps!
:shake:
 
I had a feeling you'd be rolling with MACtion today. Good luck, sexy rexy. And Merry Christmas!
 
I'm really feeling Toledo. Not sure about the Zips, they kind of suck.
 
Thanks barkeep. I actually had Western and OVER yesterday but was in transit back to the states and didn't get a chance to post. Obviously the bowl season is off to a great start, here's hoping that these MAC schools follow in the footsteps of Ohio's spread success (although for me, I need the Dildos to win outright).
 
none at all. Opened 52 got bet down as low as 49, semi sharp friend of mine likes OV at that level but also leaned UN at 52 (yes, he's a strictly numbers guy, which is the only way to win long term doing this). You see my predicted score, so I have no thoughts
 
Let's keep the good times rollin... 5-1 and +10.5 in posted and 7-1 overall and +13.5 total (2u WKy OV, 1u small WKy side; most who bother to read this thread know I'm a fairly straight shooter when it comes to record-keeping. I'm not getting paid for this so record police go sit in the corner if you don't like it. Yes, I'm full of piss and vinegar when running good I guess!)

Onto Wednesday. Will be trying to dodge tornadoes later it seems. GL to us all.


Poinsettia Bowl


Two of the best schools outside of the Power-5 conferences since the turn of the century meet in San Diego. Both teams had disappointing seasons, by their standards. Boise State went 8-4 and didn’t even win its own division of a very weak Mountain West Mountain. The Broncos lost twice as heavy favorites on their blue carpet at the end of the season. Northern Illinois lost their last two and finished 8-5, backing into the league championship before getting beaten by Bowling Green in Detroit.


Boise has been to 14 straight bowls, and NIU is 65-18 since the start of 2010. Only Alabama, Oregon and Florida State have more wins in that span; Boise has 63 itself. Northern has lost three straight bowls and the Broncos have won five of their last six, but a nod to the dog here. NIU hasn’t lost three straight since 2009 and is 11-1 as a single-digit dog in the last 12, including 2-0 this season.


Prediction: Boise 30, Northern Illinois 29
The play: NIU +7.5 med to big 2.5u



GoDaddy.com Bowl


The “Interim Coaches” Bowl. Bowling Green’s Dino Babers is off to Syracuse after winning a MAC title in 2015. Willie Fritz took the Tulane job after piloting Georgia Southern to its first-ever bowl and two solid seasons in the Sun Belt in their first two I-A seasons. A closer look, though, shows that this is a mismatch.


The Falcons were fourth in the nation in total yards and quarterback Matt Johnson led the nation in passing yards and had 43 touchdowns to eight interceptions. Senior running back Travis Greene ran for 1,244 yards and 16 touchdowns and sees gaping holes because of BG’s offensive line, one of the most experienced in the nation. The Falcons ran 1,073 plays (!) and led the country in first downs.


Georgia Southern led the country in rushing but threw for 85 yards or less in 10 games! QB Kevin Ellison ran for eight touchdowns, but threw for just 3, with 5 interceptions. Of course, the Eagles ranked last in the nation in passing. The defense was good, but the Sun Belt and its mediocre offenses helped that.


The Beegees have 24 players who have four or five years of experience and are playing in a fourth straight bowl. Georgia Southern has 29 true freshman and 20 redshirt freshmen on the roster and a coaching staff that’s never prepared for this kind of game, let alone this kind of opponent. And we’ve already established that the Eagles aren’t going to be able to throw the ball to get back in it once they fall behind.




Prediction: Bowling Green 47, Georgia Southern 20
The play: Beegees -7 even money big for 3.5u

Also, Beegees -6 flat for 1 unit more. Total of 4.5u on the Beegees thus far. If it goes to 5.5 flat or better, I will keep betting it, for another unit at least. Gotta strike while the iron is hot...

GL!

:shake:
 
Tack on another unit at minus-5 for Beegees. I wonder if they're doing this because of the weather. It's a Walters-type move. I'm not in front of a ticker so not sure who is doing this, but BG a better running team than GaSo, and we already know the passing disparity can't get any worse.
 
Nassau Bowl


This game pitting two 7-5 teams from the MAC and C-USA will have a lot to live up to for fans in the Bahamas that rarely get to see American football played live. Last year’s inaugural edition of this game finished 49-48, with Western Kentucky blowing all of a 49-14 fourth-quarter lead before stopping Central Michigan’s two-point conversion after an 80-yard, 4-lateral touchdown on the last play.


Western Michigan represents the MAC this time, and PJ Fleck’s team is much more experienced than the team that went bowling in 2014, surviving pre-conference battles with Michigan State and Ohio State that would wear down a lesser team. The Broncos are led by QB Zach Terrell, who has thrown 53 touchdown passes in the last two seasons. The difference is that the Broncos can also run the ball, something that Middle struggled with (in three of the five losses, MTSU ran for 38 yards or less). Western ranked second in the country in time of possession and values the football. That should be enough for them to prevail here.


Prediction: Western Michigan 36, Middle Tennessee 30
No play for now



Hawaii Bowl


The second island game on Christmas Eve pits a Cincinnati team that lost all of its meaningful conference games against a San Diego State team that won every conference game. The line is still cheap, as the American representative Bearcats actually opened the favorite before quarterback Gunner Kiel left the team to address some personal issues.


The Bearcats don’t exactly lose a lot however, when turning to redshirt freshman Hayden Moore as the starter. He made two starts earlier in the year when Kiel was injured and held his own, actually breaking the single-game record for passing yards by a UC quarterback with 557 in relief of Kiel in a 53-46 loss at Memphis. Moore is also the more mobile quarterback, so expect Cincinnati to make some adjustments to cater to that part of the offense as well.


San Diego State can do its share of damage and could ding the Bearcats up on the ground. UC allowed 5.2 yards per carry and will be facing a solid duo in Donnel Pumphrey (1,154 yards, 16 touchdowns) and Chase Price (940 yards, 5.3 ypc). The Aztecs also have the nation’s fifth-best defense but that was greatly aided by the ability to beat up on the rotten Mountain West offenses since October. Out of the league, San Diego State was beaten by double-digit favorites Cal and Penn State but also by double-digit dog South Alabama!


Yes, the Aztecs are hot and yes, UC lost to all of the good conference teams on its schedule, but the strength in leagues when comparing the AAC to the MWC will come into play. Beware of betting too much on a Christmas Eve game in Hawaii, because you really have almost no idea who will bother to show up. And with schizophrenic Cincy, that is only exacerbated – the Bearcats were good enough to beat Miami (Florida), yet trailed South Florida 51-3 at the half!


Prediction: Cincinnati 41, San Diego State 27
The play: Cincinnati +110 medium 2u
 
thanks Timbo, Merry Christmas to you and your family as well. Just had a line of showers race through here so the instability won't likely be here later for really bad storms, so that's a bit of good news. Nieces are coming over shortly and will get to spend some time with them before MACtion so all is good round these parts thus far.

:shake:
 
St. Petersburg Bowl


Kudos to second-year coach Bob Diaco, who improved his UConn squad from 2-10 to 6-6, beating Houston on Nov. 21 in a game where the Huskies were plus-4 in turnovers and got bowl-eligible by inflicting the lone loss on the Cougars this season. Star Coug QB Greg Ward missed post with an injury, but the Huskies fought hard in the American this season, allowing less than 20 points per game.


Marshall won eight of nine to start the season, with an overtime loss at Middle Tennessee State and a three-touchdown beating at the hands of Western Kentucky dropping the Herd to 9-3 at the end of the season. Marshall's defense also was solid most of the season, allowing just 18.4 ppg.


While Conference USA is below the AAC in conference pecking order, it must be noted that while the Huskies could rarely gain traction on offense most of the season, Marshall averaged 32.6 ppg and redshirt freshman Chase Litton (22 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) seemed to grasp things better in the latter half of the year.


In what is likely to be a close game with two teams close in talent, the MU offense is likely to do more damage, and that makes this worth a small lay, gun to head.


Prediction: Marshall 24, UConn 16
No play for now. Will consider Marshall smallish at -3.


Sun Bowl


"The Pirate" makes a return to west Texas; that's presumably the main storyline here as former Texas Tech and current Washington State coach Mike Leach pilots his Cougars into El Paso to meet Miami (Florida) at the Sun Bowl.


For the Cougars, the even better news is the return of quarterback Luke Falk (4,266 yards passing with 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions), who missed the Apple Cup against Washington to a concussion. Top target Gabe Marks (99 catches, 14 for touchdowns) will also return after getting injured against the Huskies. Wazzou's offense should have fun attacking an underwhelming Miami defense that gave up 29 ppg.


On the other side, Miami counters with quarterback Brad Kaaya, who threw for more than 3,000 yards with 15 scores and only four interceptions. Coach Al Golden was fired after a 58-0 whitewashing at the hands of Clemson in midseason, and the Canes responded by winning four of five to end the season with the same 8-4 record that Wazzou had.


One big factor could be turnovers; the Cougs were -3 in turnovers while the Canes were +13. That stat scares me off the Cougar side and points me to the total, with the two stud quarterbacks likely to turn this one into "Can you match this?"


Prediction: Washington State 41, Miami 36
The play: OVER 62 for 2u medium



Heart of Dallas Bowl


Big number for a 6-6 Washington to lay to an ascending Southern Miss that finished 9-4 after 1-11 and 3-9 seasons. The Huskies themselves were just 4-6 before beating winless-in-league-play Oregon State and severely-banged-up Washington State in the Apple Cup to finish 6-6. The Golden Eagles mauled a dangerous Louisiana Tech team on the road in the game to decide the C-USA West winner, 58-24.


The USM offense graduated to being officially potent, albeit against a rotten schedule. Quarterback Nick Mullens had 36 touchdown passes to just 12 picks; running back Jalen Richard and Ito Smith both ran for almost 1,100 yards each and averaged six and seven yards per carry, respectively.


They will face a different beast here, though. The Huskies are laying two scores primarily because the oddsmakers think this is a class jump that will be tough to overcome. Washington led the Pac-12 in scoring defense at less than 18 points per game, and also in total defense, at 350 ypg allowed. Sure, true freshman Jake Browning has a full season and bowl practices under his belt to pilot the up-tempo Washington offense. But if the U-Dub defense does its job, it will be on quarterback Browning to NOT make mistakes. Expect the Huskies to physically dominate the line, especially when they are on defense.


Prediction: Washington 27, Southern Miss 20
The play: UNDER 55 med to big 2.4 ish units. The current price of UN 52 would only be for about 1.8u or so at the most, but is still a play



Pinstripe Bowl


Indiana hasn't won a bowl game since 1991, and Duke hasn't won one since 1961. On the other hand, at least the Blue Devils have played for three straight under excellent coach David Cutcliffe, though they've lost all three (with two covers the last two seasons and the wicked beat in the 2012 Belk Bowl against Cincinnati when the Bearcats scored 14 points in the final seconds to get the money). IU last played in a bowl in 2007, and 1993 before that.


The Hoosiers are led by NFL-prospect quarterback Nate Sudfeld, who finally stayed healthy this season in leading the Big Ten's best offense. He threw for 3,184 yards with 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions. IU running back Jordan Howard gained more than 1,200 yards and scored nine times, despite playing in just more than eight games. Word is he should be healthy to give the Hoosiers the balance they need.


Dual-threat Duke QB Thomas Sirk threw for 2,461 yards with a 15/6 TD-to-INT ratio; he also led the Blue Devils with 654 rushing yards as well.

IU's offense ranks 16th; its defense 120th. Duke scored 30-plus points per game and were in the bottom-third in the nation in pass defensive efficiency. The OVER would be the best play here, but the line has basically been ruined from its open of 66 to its current level of 72.5 ish. It's very hard to win long-term when going over secondary and tertiary numbers. IU covered in its last three, won its last two to get to 6-6 and lost four times to top-15 teams. Duke lost four of five after starting 6-1, so a tepid recommendation for the Hoosiers is the best call.


Prediction: Indiana 43, Duke 33
The plays: Indiana -2 med 2u. I would only lay the current best avails (2.5 -115 or 3 even) for about 1.5u or so tops. Also OVER is the way but I got a way better number than is currently there so would not recommend a play at this level.




Independence Bowl


Two 6-6 teams meet in Shreveport, La., in what has become an otherwise nondescript bowl in recent years. Two things stand out here: one is the point spread, which at 13.5 and 14 will almost surely be the highest of the bowl season. The second is that the coach of favored Virginia Tech is Frank Beamer and he'll be calling it a career after this game against Tulsa.


This venue, and this spot would make it seem tough to consider laying a large number with the Hokies, which had to reach into the emotional well in late games vs. North Carolina and Virginia after Beamer's retirement announcement. The 23-20 win over the Hoos in the season finale made the Hokies bowl-eligible for the 23rd straight year. The offense ranked just 96th in the country, and Bud Foster's usually-vaunted defense was only 47th in scoring defense. The Hokies never scored more than 28 points in regulation time since Sept. 19.


As bad as things look for VT, though, they're favored by two touchdowns for a reason.


Tulsa, itself, is as bad as any team bowling on paper and that's why the line is so high. The Golden Hurricane allowed more yards than anyone in the country except for Texas Tech and Kansas. Tulsa is bowling for the first time in 2012 and could have an emotional edge if the Hokies come out flat. It also doesn't hurt that the Hurricane have covered all six times away from home this term, with more than one of those coming via the backdoor. Quarterback Dane Evans fired away repeatedly and often to the tune of 3,958 yards for first-year coach Philip Montgomery, he of the Art Briles track-meet style spread offense.


Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Tulsa 23
No play.




Foster Farms Bowl


Nebraska backed into a bowl at 5-7 but the Cornhuskers are far superior on paper than many of the teams that will have played bowl games to this point. Under first-year coach Mike Riley, the Huskers would somehow find a way to lose their first four games when they were ahead or tied with 15 seconds or fewer to play.


UCLA ended up 8-4 and gets "relegated" to this game in Santa Clara after losing the Pac-12 South to Southern Cal in the season finale. Have to wonder their morale here after that loss. The Bruins did beat better Nebraska sides in 2012 and 2013 under head coach Jim Mora, Jr. But tough to consider laying a touchdown against a Nebraska squad hungry to prove that they were better than their record. Then again, tough to bet on any 5-7 team in a bowl game.


UCLA was 18th in pass efficiency defense and has All-Pac 12 running back Paul Perkins. They could well keep the Nebraska offense off the field for long portions.


Prediction: UCLA 30, Nebraska 19
The play: UNDER 62 medium 2u


GL today!

:cheers:
 
Military Bowl


Lots of intangibles in play here before we get to the fundamentals. Record-setting Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds will finish his college career with the most rushing touchdowns in the history of the NCAA (he's at 85 now) while also setting a school record for touchdown passes. Not bad for a place where Roger Staubach once won the Heisman Trophy before embarking on a long NFL career!


The other big news in Annapolis, site of this game for the host Midshipmen, is that Ken Niumatalolo decided to stay at Navy after interviewing for the head coaching position at Brigham Young. Niumatalolo has never lost to the Army and has to wonder what else he can accomplish at Navy, especially considering his LDS background. But in the end, he decided to stay to face Pittsburgh in this bowl, and beyond.


The Panthers had a solid 8-4 season in the ACC under first-year coach Pat Narduzzi, who had the Panthers ranked in the top 20 nationally in rush defense. That said, Georgia Tech pounded its way for 376 yards against the Panther defense on Oct. 17 in Atlanta, so Pitt did not have much success against its one option foe this season.


Another problem for Pitt is that Navy's defense this season has been fairly stout, although teams with scrambling threats at QB (see Houston, Notre Dame) gave the Mids fits. But Nathan Peterman doesn't have much mobility, so the Panthers will likely struggle to move the ball consistently. Navy has won its last nine at home, all by double-digits. So Navy to cover seems intriguing, but even with the total having been bet down from its open in the 56 range, the UNDER seems even safer. That said, I'll try both here.


Prediction: Navy 27, Pitt 18
The plays: UNDER 53 and Navy -2.5 both for about 2u each






Quick Lane Bowl


Had to really do some searching to find the lesser of two evils in Detroit. A 5-7 Minnesota team limps into a bowl because there were too many bowls and not enough eligible teams, while Central Michigan finished at 7-5 and a clear tier below each of the top three in the MAC West.


It's my duty to inform you that there are lot of good bowl games left the rest of the week; this is not one of them. Skip it to get some post-Christmas returns or errands done, and come back to watch the NFL Monday Night game later. It's also my duty to give you a pick, even if I can't come up with much reasoning behind it.


In the end, a tepid recommendation goes to CMU. The Chippewas will have more fans and are probably more excited to get another shot at a Big 10 team after failing earlier in the season at Michigan State. Central is also 4-1-1 last six against the number in bowls, and 3-0 as dogs ATS, while the Gophers (Goofers?) are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS as a favorite in bowl games.


Prediction: Central Michigan 24, Minnesota 23
The play: CMU +6 -105 small 1u

GL!

:shake:
 
Really puzzled by the line move in the military bowl but it seems like books have been taking a beating with the bowl games so far so i guess that continues here.... i was surprised this line wasn't higher at open
 
nbafan88 said:
Really puzzled by the line move in the military bowl but it seems like books have been taking a beating with the bowl games so far so i guess that continues here.... i was surprised this line wasn't higher at open
Click to expand...

I was thinking the same thing here. If Navy is at 63% and the line is dropping that tells me to go with Pitt?

Am I wrong??
 
KTR99 said:
I was thinking the same thing here. If Navy is at 63% and the line is dropping that tells me to go with Pitt?

Am I wrong??
Click to expand...
Line movement was saying take Cinci against SDSU and Ark St against La Tech, line movement is not always an indicator of correct.
 
Thanks for the thoughts Rexy, seeing things similar to you today. Definitely do not feel bad having my money on the same side of the counter as you BOL today
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Military Bowl


Lots of intangibles in play here before we get to the fundamentals. Record-setting Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds will finish his college career with the most rushing touchdowns in the history of the NCAA (he's at 85 now) while also setting a school record for touchdown passes. Not bad for a place where Roger Staubach once won the Heisman Trophy before embarking on a long NFL career!


The other big news in Annapolis, site of this game for the host Midshipmen, is that Ken Niumatalolo decided to stay at Navy after interviewing for the head coaching position at Brigham Young. Niumatalolo has never lost to the Army and has to wonder what else he can accomplish at Navy, especially considering his LDS background. But in the end, he decided to stay to face Pittsburgh in this bowl, and beyond.


The Panthers had a solid 8-4 season in the ACC under first-year coach Pat Narduzzi, who had the Panthers ranked in the top 20 nationally in rush defense. That said, Georgia Tech pounded its way for 376 yards against the Panther defense on Oct. 17 in Atlanta, so Pitt did not have much success against its one option foe this season.


Another problem for Pitt is that Navy's defense this season has been fairly stout, although teams with scrambling threats at QB (see Houston, Notre Dame) gave the Mids fits. But Nathan Peterman doesn't have much mobility, so the Panthers will likely struggle to move the ball consistently. Navy has won its last nine at home, all by double-digits. So Navy to cover seems intriguing, but even with the total having been bet down from its open in the 56 range, the UNDER seems even safer. That said, I'll try both here.


Prediction: Navy 27, Pitt 18
The plays: UNDER 53 and Navy -2.5 both for about 2u each



Rexy - what effect do you think the loss of the Pitt OC will have in this game? I don't think they've announced his replacement so it may be a different game flow for the panthers.
Click to expand...
 
I don't see them having much success regardless; Navy's defense has done well all season against immobile QB's as i listed in the last paragraph of that writeup.
 
Armed Forces Bowl


Contrast of two offenses in this one, as the Air Force offense ranked second in the country in rushing, while California's "Air Raid" features junior quarterback Jared Goff and his whopping 37 touchdown passes on the season. Goff is likely NFL-bound after this game, and it's quite possible that Cal coach Sonny Dykes hasn't found a proper replacement - he was reportedly flirting with several other head coaching openings elsewhere, though that could have just been posturing in trying to get a better long-term deal in Berkeley.


Air Force lost a fun 42-36 game to Cal in this same bowl at this same Fort Worth venue in 2007; that was AFA coach Troy Calhoun's first season in charge in Colorado Springs. The Falcons run the same offense now; it's piloted by senior Karson Roberts, who took over for injured Nate Romine in September and gave them another dimension. Roberts threw for more than 270 yards in back to back wins last month over Utah State and Boise State. The AFA defense also ranked in the top-25 in the country. Meanwhile, Cal's defense ranked 102nd against the run!


Intangibles steer me toward a play on the Flyboys here. Cal struggles with the run most of the year, and the coach flirting with other jobs could not have been good for its preparation. Now the Golden Bears are being asked to lay a touchdown in a military bowl against a military academy?


Prediction: Air Force 37, Cal 34
Recommendation: Air Force +7 for 2.5u. The best current available +7 -115 would also be for the same.






Russell Athletic Bowl


When this game was announced, I immediately considered it to be the best of the best when it came to the 40 bowl matchups, even better than the two national semifinals. North Carolina played unblemished ball from the season opener until a narrow loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Baylor was the top-scoring team in the country for the second straight year and ranked near the top of the first few playoff polls until injuries derailed the Bears' season.


Unfortunately, the Baylor injuries have also derailed some of the allure of this matchup as well. Starting quarterback Seth Russell fractured his neck in October and is out, backup Jarrett Stidham did an admirable job of filling in until he fractured his ankle and even No. 3 QB Chris Johnson looked capable at times before he suffered a concussion in the season finale in early December against Texas. Johnson will be back, but he'll be missing top running back Shock Linwood and top wideout Corey Coleman (nation-leading 20 touchdown catches). Both of those players are high-level draft choices.


On the other side, UNC has continuity. Three-year starting QB Marquise Williams led the Heels to more than 40 points per game and 487 yards per game. New defensive coordinator Gene Chizik has lopped off a whopping 16 ppg from a Heels defense that resembled traffic cones at times in the back-7 in 2014.


While the Bears are still loaded with speed, have one of the best offensive lines in the country and improved themselves on defense this season, it's just a tough "ask" to get them to beat a better team than they lost to in last year's Alamo Bowl in a tougher spot. The line move reflects this as well, but it's still a small lay at 3 or better; nothing at this level.

Prediction: North Carolina 38, Baylor 33
No play.






Arizona Bowl


Perhaps the most noteworthy thing about the Arizona Bowl is that it pits two schools from the same conference butting heads in a bowl game (not playing for the national championship) since the 1979 Orange Bowl featured Big 8 foes Oklahoma and Nebraska. It might be the only noteworthy thing for anyone who doesn't root for Nevada and Colorado State.


Yes, these two did officially qualify for bowl status by getting to six and seven wins, respectively. But the game isn't even broadcast on national television; good luck trying to find it online! Colorado State won four straight to close out the season after starting 2-6. The Rams changed to an SEC-type power rushing game under new head coach Mike Bobo, who was offensive coordinator at Georgia last season, and the slow start probably had something to do with the schematic changes on offense.


Nevada is 10-3 in its last 13 ATS away from Reno and will be counting on its own rushing attack to control the clock and eat up yards. Two 1,000-yard backs (James Butler and Don Jackson) lead the way for Brian Polian's Wolfpack. Still, not enough for me to endorse either side in this yawner. Two running teams, so maybe the score will be in the 20s both ways.



Prediction: Nevada 26, Colorado State 22
The play: UNDER 56 for 2u.


Texas Bowl


This is a big number for Louisiana State to give Texas Tech in Houston. Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury gave the boot to three defensive assistant coaches after a regular season that saw the Red Raiders yield 540 yards per game to the high-flying Big XII offenses. And Heisman hopeful running back Leonard Fournette should have a field day against a TT defense that was third-worst in the country against the rush; the LSU sophomore led the country in yards per game.

Despite that, Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes will keep any scoreboard operator busy; he threw for 32 touchdowns and 4,283 yards in leading Tech a 46.6 ppg. LSU's defense isn't quite as stingy as in prior seasons; the Tigers gave up 20-plus points in nine of their last 10 games, covering just three times all season.


Tech also won at Arkansas, beating an SEC team that also won in Baton Rouge this fall. The LSU program has been on quite a roller coaster ride since early November. The Tigers went four straight games without scoring 20 points, losing to Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss in games that weren't really close. A win over Texas A&M in the finale subsequently saved coach Les Miles's job, but how do the fragile minds of college kids deal with their coach being on the chopping block, and eventually freed? They could easily lay an egg here.


In bowl games, LSU has no covers in its last four, while Tech has won its last four bowls outright, scoring 34 points or more in each win. An easy call for the dog.




Prediction: Texas Tech 37, LSU 33
The play: Texas Tech +7 -105 med to big 2.5u
 
Birmingham Bowl


Some interesting sidebars to this battle between Memphis and Auburn. Aging Legion Field was the host of the "Iron Bowl" until 1988 and Auburn played some 'home' games there well into the 1970s, while Memphis is less than four hours away and should be well-supported, also. The AAC-Tigers lost three of four after starting 8-0, with a scalp over Ole Miss as the cornerstone victory of the campaign. The SEC-Tigers were a national playoff darkhorse heading into the season, yet finished a disappointing 6-6.


Memphis head coach Justin Fuente has departed to take over at Virginia Tech, so former North Texas head coach Darrell Dickey is the coach for this one and will stay on staff of new head coach Mike Norvell (offensive coordinator at Arizona State, also worked with Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn at Tulsa under Todd Graham).


Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch will be using this one as an NFL audition; he figures to be one of the first players picked at his position in April's Draft. The Tigers scored 43 ppg thanks in large part to his 28 points and just three interceptions. Meanwhile, Auburn's offense sputtered much of the way, albeit against a much stiffer slate of defenses. Memphis's secondary resembled traffic cones for much of the year, but it was pretty solid against the run, by and large.


The problem for Auburn is that it had many problems in the passing game this season, juggling between quarterbacks - Jeremy Johnson re-emerged as the starter late in the season. This won’t be the easiest game for Auburn to get up for after a disappointing season, and Malzahn has yet to win a bowl.


Prediction: Memphis 36, Auburn 34
The play: OVER 62.5 med 2u




Belk Bowl


I have been down on North Carolina State all season; the Wolfpack beat up on four bad teams to get themselves in position to easily attain bowl eligibility. The only three ACC wins for the Pack came against Wake Forest, Syracuse and Boston College - three teams that just couldn't score and that were the three worst in the league. While NC State did score almost 34 points per game, it also lacks a go-to running back due to the loss of Matthew Dayes to injury and Shadrach Thornton to suspension. It'll be tough sledding going against Bulldog defense that wore down late to attrition and lack of depth, yet still yielded less than 23 ppg.


The Bulldogs also possess the best offensive player here, as senior QB Dak Prescott will end up his college career looking for another opportunity to shine in a bowl. Last season in the Orange Bowl he threw for 453 yards and three touchdowns against Georgia Tech. He threw for 29 scores and just four interceptions as a senior.


NC State allowed 101 points combined in losses to Clemson and North Carolina; each with similar dual-threat QB types to Prescott. Not a good omen for the ACC rep here. MSU is coming off an Egg Bowl loss, but Dan Mullen's group hasn't dropped back-to-back decisions since 2013. The Bulldogs have beaten five teams this year that are bowling; the Wolfpack none.


Prediction: Mississippi State 44, NC State 23
The play: Mississippi State -5.5 big for 3.5u. Would lay 6 which is widely available for up to 3u.





Music City Bowl


Louisville and Texas A&M have many things in common. Unfortunately for both, coming up short in all of the big games this season is the one that they most have in common, and it's why this meeting is happening in Nashville and before New Year's Day.


Louisville started out 0-3 but rallied to win seven of nine after that, including rallying from three touchdowns down in the season finale to beat host Kentucky in the season finale, 38-24. Meanwhile, the Aggies lost four of seven once they got into the heart of the SEC West schedule. They scored more than 25 points in just one of their final six lined games.


That said, this is the sixth straight bowl year for the Aggies, who are 3-0 under Sumlin, scoring 41, 52 and 45 pts. With the two quarterback defections (Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray), the Aggies will be preparing with a little known junior college transfer running the offense. Still, the line opened Texas A&M at -3 or so, and them catching more than a field goal seems like an over-adjustment in a game that could go either way.


Prediction: Louisville 23, Texas A&M 22
The play: UNDER 48.5 med 2u




Holiday Bowl


This meeting in San Diego pits two schools that had Rose Bowl ambitions in August, as Wisconsin travels down to meet Southern Cal. The Trojans played in this game last season, dominating Nebraska before allowing a late flurry to win 45-42 (they were laying 7, so USC backers probably remember getting backdoored that night). That was the ninth win in USC's last 11 bowls and the 13th straight win (!) over a Big Ten foe.


It seems a bit strange to think that Wisconsin has had three coaches in the last four years, yet is the more "stable" program at this point, but that's where things stand after USC coach Clay Helton's interim tag was removed. He responded by sacking half of his assistant coaches following the team's second loss to Stanford this season in the Pac 12 title game.


USC is led by quarterback Cody Kessler, a senior who has put up stellar career numbers and will likely get a look at the NFL next fall. He is likely to be under constant pressure as the USC O-line has lost several key pieces; Wisconsin's defense ranked third in America in yards allowed, and Kessler has also struggled in big games throughout his career. Wisconsin senior quarterback Joel Stave is 30-10 as a starter despite not putting up lofty career numbers. The Southern Cal defense yielded 30 ppg in the last nine, but should show some different looks with the new coaches and schemes on that side of the ball.


Note that none of the nine teams that Wisconsin beat during the regular season even finished better than 5-7. To expect them to beat a team of this talent might be asking a bit much. But Kessler's big game struggles coupled with Wisconsin's solid defense should give the Badgers a fighting chance. And Southern Cal has more talent across the board and should be able to stifle Stave and the Wisconsin offense for the better part of 60 minutes. The Holiday Bowl has seen some shootouts in its day, but this one won't be one of those times.


Prediction: Southern Cal 20, Wisconsin 19
The play: UNDER 50.5 small to med 1.5u. At 51, it's a 2u play.

GL!

:shake:
 
Peach Bowl


The first game of the day is the only non-playoff game, but that doesn't make it any less intriguing than the other New Year's Eve games. Florida State was supposed to be rebuilding, yet still finished 10-2. Houston is representing the American Conference, which has gotten beaten and battered in the bowls. The AAC is winless in six tries this season, with the only cover coming from a Tulsa squad which came from out of the clouds to get inside the backdoor against Virginia Tech.


The Cougars are in a New Year's Eve game for a reason, however. They are the champs of their beleaguered conference but could easily be unbeaten. The lone loss came when quarterback Greg Ward was injured at UConn, the Cougs were minus-4 in turnovers yet still just lost 20-17. Meanwhile, the Noles beat everyone except for Georgia Tech and Clemson, covering in seven of their 11 games against Division I-A competition.


The line here just seems a bit high. Houston should be able to trade throughout against a solid FSU offense. First-year coach Tom Herman's loss was certainly felt when he left Ohio State this year; the Buckeye offense that he called the plays for last year never got to the 2014 levels this fall. The Cougars have covered all but twice in the last 19 games away from home, so taking this many points certainly appeals on many levels.


Prediction: Florida State 34, Houston 30
The play: Houston +7 small to med 1.5u



Orange Bowl


Top-ranked Clemson last won a championship in 1981; the Tigers were also an underdog in the Orange Bowl to Nebraska as an undefeated unit. The Tigers have potent sophomore QB Deshaun Watson piloting an attack that put up solid numbers all year. He threw for 30 touchdowns and running back Wayne Gallman added 5.5 yards per carry.


Sure, you can make a case for Oklahoma, and the way they've played the last two months, the Sooners are probably the rightful favorite. Baker Mayfield is the OU quarterback, taking over after transferring over from Texas Tech, where he was a walk-on. The Sooners boast many weapons and scored 46 ppg after bringing in Lincoln Riley from East Carolina to install a hurry-up spread offense that is en vogue in the Big 12 these days.


Revenge could come into play for OU, but perhaps not... Clemson blasted Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl last season and the Tigers, despite losing many top-level defenders, still allowed just 129 ypg on the ground and 46 percent completions from opposing quarterbacks. That's enough for me to call for the Tigers to win this one outright.




Prediction: Clemson 33, Oklahoma 27
Recommendation: Clemson +4 med 2u






Cotton Bowl


It's not at all difficult to make a case for Michigan State in the second playoff semifinal against Alabama. In fact, the Spartans have been an underdog in all eight of the bowls they've played in under Mark Dantonio. MSU lost the first four, but have won the last four outright, including last season's stirring 42-41 win over Baylor at this venue in this bowl game by rallying from 20 points down in the last 12:09. Amazingly enough, the Spartans have trailed by double digits in all of those last four bowl wins.

That won't work out too well on New Year's Eve.


Alabama has done one thing consistently well since Nick Saban took over in Tuscaloosa: adjust.


The Crimson Tide were, frankly, embarassed, in last season's semifinal against fourth-seeded Ohio State. You can count on Bama being far better prepared in this, the second season of the playoff system. The Tide defense only allowed six rushing touchdowns all season and 14.4 points per game.


It's a tough ask for senior Spartan QB Connor Cook (34-4 record as a starter, 24 scores and just five interceptions) to do much against the stingy Alabama defense. Cook wasn't even voted as a captain by his teammates before the season started, which is very rare for a guy who had won 22 games as a starter before the season started.


The Spartans earned the No.3-seed by beating previously unbeaten Iowa in the Big 10 Championship and the lone Spartan loss was in controversial fashion at 5-7 Nebraska. Still, they won four games by four points or less. Bama has played the tougher SEC schedule, been more convincing with its wins in the last 10 games and should improve off the effort that "lacked focus" against Ohio State in 2014, according to Saban.


Prediction: Alabama 33, Michigan State 16
The play: Alabama -9.5 med to big 2.5u. Would lay 10 for slightly less if you can't get my number.

GL!

:shake:




 
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