TroyStacks
18" Pythons
With you on Bama HUGE mismatch, but I haven't been sold on Clemson at all this year. I wish you luck bc I'm on the ML -135 BIG!
Rexy's Bowl Thread...
- Thread starter CollegeKingRex
- Start date
TroyStacks
18" Pythons
Hou/FSU all comes down to which FSU team shows up. Me thinks this line is a good FG-FG1/2 too short. No more Gholson over Maguire back and FSU RB (brain fart on name Cooks?) got snubbed all year as a heisman contender might have something to prove. Will likely hold off on a side but think the OVER is worth a look.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
A nice 3-0 and +6 yesterday; also had some Alabama 2H but wasn't around the computer to post as I had some travel issues and got stuck in Atlanta an extra night, putting me behind the 8-ball.
Anyways, to today. Happy 2016 to us all and GL!
Outback Bowl
The first of a five-pack of New Year's Day games kicks off before the rest of them so you'll at least have to pay attention for an hour of the first of all four early games involving Big 10 teams. Tennessee had Oklahoma and Alabama all but beat and also squandered double-digit leads against Florida and Arkansas to finish as easily the best 8-4 team in the country. They are laying a big price against the 10-win Wildcats for a reason.
Pat Fitzgerald is looking to guide Northwestern to its first-ever 11-win season; that's enough motivation to ensure you will get NU's best effort. Will they have enough talent to stay on the field with the explosive Vols, led by dual-threat quarterback Josh Dobbs and six receivers that caught 21 balls or more. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have the worst offense in the Big 10; the 11th-ranked defense nationally (16 points per game allowed, ranking seventh in scoring) will have to do its share of heavy lifting. Northwestern has won five games by single digits despite the offensive woes, so a nailbiter would certainly favor the Wildcats, but they'll have to keep Dobbs and Co. from blowing up the scoreboard. I think they will. Must note Fitzgerald is 4-1 ATS in bowls, with all five games with the Wildcats as a dog.
Prediction: Tennessee 26, Northwestern 19
The play: UNDER 48.5 med for 2u. Considering adding Northwestern small now that it's in double-digits but nothing yet. Would welcome input.
Citrus Bowl
I was not initially a big fan of the Jim Harbaugh hire at Michigan. I was certainly a big fan of the Jim McElwain hire in Gainesville and he proved his mettle by winning nine games with an offense that belonged in the Sun Belt. Florida's only losses were to Alabama, LSU and Florida State, but the Gators escaped multiple times. They kicked an improbable field goal to beat Vanderbilt 9-7 as a three-touchdown home favorite, got a frontdoor cover the next week at South Carolina and then beat 30-point dog Florida Atlantic 20-14 in a game they trailed almost throughout. The Emperor's Clothes were revealed in the season finale (27-2 loss to Florida State which is just as bad as it sounds) before the Gators stole a cover in a 29-15 loss to Alabama (plus-17).
There is a good reason the Wolverines are the favorite - the defense allowed a TOTAL of 14 points in a five-game winning streak after the season-opening loss at Utah. The loss to Michigan State on the freak play sent UM into a spiral; the Wolves allowed 26 the next week in a non-cover at Minnesota and 41 in a non-cover a few weeks later at Indiana. The loss at home to a better Ohio State team in the season finale has kept this game plenty cheap.
The Gators have a real stout defense but the Wolverines are even better. I can't even envision many scenarios where UF gets multiple first downs on any given drive. If the turnover battle is even (no guarantee; UF is plus-10 on the year and UM is minus-6) then the Wolverines should pull away.
Prediction: Michigan 20, Florida 10
The plays: Michigan -4 for 1.5u and UNDER 39.5 for 1.5u also
Fiesta Bowl
Many have Ohio State's power ranking on the same or a similar level the top playoff teams, including Alabama and Clemson. The Buckeyes finished 11-1 with a loss to Michigan State at home, yet were just 5-7 ATS on the season; to say the Buckeyes underachieved as defending national champions is a massive understatement. They'll face a Notre Dame team that went 10-2 against a tougher schedule. Each team was just a few plays from making the Final Four.
Motivation, then, clearly is a factor here. The Irish certainly have a lot of talent, but the Buckeyes boast 11 players on the all-Big 10 first and second teams. Running back Ezekiel Elliott was the league offensive player of the year, left tackle Taylor Decker was voted best O-lineman in the league and defensive end Joey Bosa was the D-Lineman of the year.
J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones are both capable of being the best player on the field from the quarterback position. Notre Dame won't be scared, which was half the battle for OSU this fall in beating its overmatched foes. But the Irish secondary is now very depth-shy after starting safety Max Redfield was suspended for this game. An injury to corner Devin Butler, who wasn't a starter until injury forced him into the lineup, leaves ND with only 6 scholarship players in the secondary. Not good against a Buckeye offense that woke up at Michigan in the season finale.
A trend makes this play a layup: OSU coach Urban Meyer is 9-2 SU/ATS in bowls (avg win 13 ppg and avg cover 10 ppg). Meanwhile, Notre Dame is winless in eight tries on New Year's Day since 1994, with just one cover in that stretch. The Buckeyes are without their top two defensive tackles, so ND could try to gash them in the A-gap early. But it's tough to figure out how quick these offenses will get going with the 11 a.m. start out in Phoenix. Trust the trends here.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Notre Dame 23
The play: Ohio State -5.5 big 3u
Rose Bowl
This one should be called the Bruise Bowl. Stanford has been more than happy to line up and try to play an NFL-type smashmouth game going back about a decade to the Jim Harbaugh Era; Iowa has specialized in playing those types of games all throughout 2015, when the Hawkeyes lost the Big 10 Championship game to become the last team outside of Clemson to lose a game.
The Cardinal have a good four-year quarterback that can make plays in Kevin Hogan (school record 35 wins vs. 10 losses in his career), but Stanford's bread has been buttered by beating you to death on both sides up front for years. Highly doubt things change here. Meanwhile, Iowa held 10 of its 13 foes to 20 points or fewer this season and Stanford's offense should struggle for good chunks of the game against a Hawkeye defense that is plus-13 in the turnover margin in D-I games this season. On the other side, Stanford only had 12 takeaways all season!
This one might hurt to even watch; I'll have an ice bucket nearby, but can see an edge here. I lean Iowa at +6 or better but UNDER seems safer.
Prediction: Stanford 23, Iowa 20
The play: UNDER 54.5 medium ish, about 1.8 units
Sugar Bowl
Third meeting between Ole Miss and Oklahoma State since 2003, with the Rebels winning and covering in Cotton Bowls in 2003 and 2009. OSU enters on a 2-game slide after a 10-0 start; Ole Miss won and covered in four of its last five, with the lone loss coming in overtime (53-52) on the "Hog Mary" play against Arkansas that is a candidate for an ESPY Play-of-the-Year. An Ole Miss win there gives them the SEC West and would have likely vastly re-shaped the playoff picture.
Alas, the Rebs will return to New Orleans for the first appearance in this game since Archie Manning took snaps under center in 1970. Upset losses at Florida and Memphis were the blemishes on the Rebel record, but they still covered 8 times while the Cowboys were .500 or below ATS (depending on how you grade their 30-27 win at Texas). The Rebs own the superior caliber SEC talent across the board, with that league now 4-1 in bowls through New Year's Eve, with all wins coming by 21 or more. Expect more of the same here (see LSU/Texas Tech for the only matchup between these two leagues in bowls up to now).
Spread is rising here, but it should easily be in double-digits. Huge Freeze has been a consistent winner at Ole Miss (33-18 in Oxford ATS) and with the Rebs getting mauled 42-3 in the Peach Bowl by TCU last year, has changed the practice schedule and has said on the record that this game is a business trip.
Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Oklahoma State 27
The play: Mississippi -8 big 3.2u or so
Anyways, to today. Happy 2016 to us all and GL!
Outback Bowl
The first of a five-pack of New Year's Day games kicks off before the rest of them so you'll at least have to pay attention for an hour of the first of all four early games involving Big 10 teams. Tennessee had Oklahoma and Alabama all but beat and also squandered double-digit leads against Florida and Arkansas to finish as easily the best 8-4 team in the country. They are laying a big price against the 10-win Wildcats for a reason.
Pat Fitzgerald is looking to guide Northwestern to its first-ever 11-win season; that's enough motivation to ensure you will get NU's best effort. Will they have enough talent to stay on the field with the explosive Vols, led by dual-threat quarterback Josh Dobbs and six receivers that caught 21 balls or more. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have the worst offense in the Big 10; the 11th-ranked defense nationally (16 points per game allowed, ranking seventh in scoring) will have to do its share of heavy lifting. Northwestern has won five games by single digits despite the offensive woes, so a nailbiter would certainly favor the Wildcats, but they'll have to keep Dobbs and Co. from blowing up the scoreboard. I think they will. Must note Fitzgerald is 4-1 ATS in bowls, with all five games with the Wildcats as a dog.
Prediction: Tennessee 26, Northwestern 19
The play: UNDER 48.5 med for 2u. Considering adding Northwestern small now that it's in double-digits but nothing yet. Would welcome input.
Citrus Bowl
I was not initially a big fan of the Jim Harbaugh hire at Michigan. I was certainly a big fan of the Jim McElwain hire in Gainesville and he proved his mettle by winning nine games with an offense that belonged in the Sun Belt. Florida's only losses were to Alabama, LSU and Florida State, but the Gators escaped multiple times. They kicked an improbable field goal to beat Vanderbilt 9-7 as a three-touchdown home favorite, got a frontdoor cover the next week at South Carolina and then beat 30-point dog Florida Atlantic 20-14 in a game they trailed almost throughout. The Emperor's Clothes were revealed in the season finale (27-2 loss to Florida State which is just as bad as it sounds) before the Gators stole a cover in a 29-15 loss to Alabama (plus-17).
There is a good reason the Wolverines are the favorite - the defense allowed a TOTAL of 14 points in a five-game winning streak after the season-opening loss at Utah. The loss to Michigan State on the freak play sent UM into a spiral; the Wolves allowed 26 the next week in a non-cover at Minnesota and 41 in a non-cover a few weeks later at Indiana. The loss at home to a better Ohio State team in the season finale has kept this game plenty cheap.
The Gators have a real stout defense but the Wolverines are even better. I can't even envision many scenarios where UF gets multiple first downs on any given drive. If the turnover battle is even (no guarantee; UF is plus-10 on the year and UM is minus-6) then the Wolverines should pull away.
Prediction: Michigan 20, Florida 10
The plays: Michigan -4 for 1.5u and UNDER 39.5 for 1.5u also
Fiesta Bowl
Many have Ohio State's power ranking on the same or a similar level the top playoff teams, including Alabama and Clemson. The Buckeyes finished 11-1 with a loss to Michigan State at home, yet were just 5-7 ATS on the season; to say the Buckeyes underachieved as defending national champions is a massive understatement. They'll face a Notre Dame team that went 10-2 against a tougher schedule. Each team was just a few plays from making the Final Four.
Motivation, then, clearly is a factor here. The Irish certainly have a lot of talent, but the Buckeyes boast 11 players on the all-Big 10 first and second teams. Running back Ezekiel Elliott was the league offensive player of the year, left tackle Taylor Decker was voted best O-lineman in the league and defensive end Joey Bosa was the D-Lineman of the year.
J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones are both capable of being the best player on the field from the quarterback position. Notre Dame won't be scared, which was half the battle for OSU this fall in beating its overmatched foes. But the Irish secondary is now very depth-shy after starting safety Max Redfield was suspended for this game. An injury to corner Devin Butler, who wasn't a starter until injury forced him into the lineup, leaves ND with only 6 scholarship players in the secondary. Not good against a Buckeye offense that woke up at Michigan in the season finale.
A trend makes this play a layup: OSU coach Urban Meyer is 9-2 SU/ATS in bowls (avg win 13 ppg and avg cover 10 ppg). Meanwhile, Notre Dame is winless in eight tries on New Year's Day since 1994, with just one cover in that stretch. The Buckeyes are without their top two defensive tackles, so ND could try to gash them in the A-gap early. But it's tough to figure out how quick these offenses will get going with the 11 a.m. start out in Phoenix. Trust the trends here.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Notre Dame 23
The play: Ohio State -5.5 big 3u
Rose Bowl
This one should be called the Bruise Bowl. Stanford has been more than happy to line up and try to play an NFL-type smashmouth game going back about a decade to the Jim Harbaugh Era; Iowa has specialized in playing those types of games all throughout 2015, when the Hawkeyes lost the Big 10 Championship game to become the last team outside of Clemson to lose a game.
The Cardinal have a good four-year quarterback that can make plays in Kevin Hogan (school record 35 wins vs. 10 losses in his career), but Stanford's bread has been buttered by beating you to death on both sides up front for years. Highly doubt things change here. Meanwhile, Iowa held 10 of its 13 foes to 20 points or fewer this season and Stanford's offense should struggle for good chunks of the game against a Hawkeye defense that is plus-13 in the turnover margin in D-I games this season. On the other side, Stanford only had 12 takeaways all season!
This one might hurt to even watch; I'll have an ice bucket nearby, but can see an edge here. I lean Iowa at +6 or better but UNDER seems safer.
Prediction: Stanford 23, Iowa 20
The play: UNDER 54.5 medium ish, about 1.8 units
Sugar Bowl
Third meeting between Ole Miss and Oklahoma State since 2003, with the Rebels winning and covering in Cotton Bowls in 2003 and 2009. OSU enters on a 2-game slide after a 10-0 start; Ole Miss won and covered in four of its last five, with the lone loss coming in overtime (53-52) on the "Hog Mary" play against Arkansas that is a candidate for an ESPY Play-of-the-Year. An Ole Miss win there gives them the SEC West and would have likely vastly re-shaped the playoff picture.
Alas, the Rebs will return to New Orleans for the first appearance in this game since Archie Manning took snaps under center in 1970. Upset losses at Florida and Memphis were the blemishes on the Rebel record, but they still covered 8 times while the Cowboys were .500 or below ATS (depending on how you grade their 30-27 win at Texas). The Rebs own the superior caliber SEC talent across the board, with that league now 4-1 in bowls through New Year's Eve, with all wins coming by 21 or more. Expect more of the same here (see LSU/Texas Tech for the only matchup between these two leagues in bowls up to now).
Spread is rising here, but it should easily be in double-digits. Huge Freeze has been a consistent winner at Ole Miss (33-18 in Oxford ATS) and with the Rebs getting mauled 42-3 in the Peach Bowl by TCU last year, has changed the practice schedule and has said on the record that this game is a business trip.
Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Oklahoma State 27
The play: Mississippi -8 big 3.2u or so
chelseafan
Pretty much a regular
Agree with all except buckeyes - if I knew they wouldn't sleepwalk today like they did all season, I'd give Meyer a shot too.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
Nice work yesterday! GL on the action today & always
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
2H Tennessee/Northwestern OVER 24 +102 for about 1.4 units small to med...
Have to bail out a bit on this one and hope for it to fall 47 or 48. Just seems like both offenses are getting in a groove and UT runs that tempo, with its speed, and it seems NU having trouble handling it the last few drives. Would lean UT side but refuse to underestimate Fitzy's adjustment abilities and remember that Vols have blown 3 double-digit leads already this season.
Have to bail out a bit on this one and hope for it to fall 47 or 48. Just seems like both offenses are getting in a groove and UT runs that tempo, with its speed, and it seems NU having trouble handling it the last few drives. Would lean UT side but refuse to underestimate Fitzy's adjustment abilities and remember that Vols have blown 3 double-digit leads already this season.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Mishitgan LIVE -160 for 1.5u more live. I've seen enough. Florida QB has vastly outplayed his potential but UM defense started to figure him out last drive. The gig is up. Wolves roll.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
2H UNDER 21 med 2u in Orlando.
Florida basically did all they could on offense; I don't expect many more points from them. Michigan will continue to dominate both sides up front and I should have bet them +1/2 -115 when it opened at half, as they should be laying 3 or so, not getting anything.
Florida basically did all they could on offense; I don't expect many more points from them. Michigan will continue to dominate both sides up front and I should have bet them +1/2 -115 when it opened at half, as they should be laying 3 or so, not getting anything.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
2H OVER 30.5 med to big 2.5u in Phoenix.
The two best defensive players for each team are out (one ejected for a bullshit targeting penalty when he hit a guy in the numbers, the other injured early in the game); each are first-round draft choices. I'm a little late to this party considering I could have tagged it live at 58.5 a couple of times, but wanted to confirm that ND could move the ball now that 97 is out for OSU and they no longer have to double anyone or pay special attention to anyone up front.
The two best defensive players for each team are out (one ejected for a bullshit targeting penalty when he hit a guy in the numbers, the other injured early in the game); each are first-round draft choices. I'm a little late to this party considering I could have tagged it live at 58.5 a couple of times, but wanted to confirm that ND could move the ball now that 97 is out for OSU and they no longer have to double anyone or pay special attention to anyone up front.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
The targeting rule is kind of bullshit, but the call was legit if you're going to have the rule. What part of the crown of his helmet did he not lead with?
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Oh, Happy New Year, rexy, I like the over too.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
The rule in and of itself is the bullshit part. It's fuckin football. Give em all goddam flags if you don't like good form tackling.
Added one unit to Michigan/Florida UNDER 21.5 even, just betting against those who steamed it against me, fuck em.
Added one unit to Michigan/Florida UNDER 21.5 even, just betting against those who steamed it against me, fuck em.
It was a great tackle. Leading with the helmet to the body is just good football, nowhere near the head area. The rule is heinous, a penalty is disgusting, and ejecting a player for playing the game in what should be the right way (and will be on Sunday for him) is absurd.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I agree, but it was the right call according to a bad rule. The refs just can't wing it.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
He lead with his head no question about that, I don't think the rule of throwing player out is good.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Good hit on the Bucks biggie, rexy. My heart got in the way of my head on that one and the point you raised about the ND injuries on D reared its head, they had no answers. Was kind of hoping to catch tOSU in a flat spot.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Pretty simple mechanic for a player not to lead with the crown of their helmet. Still blows me away players are stupid enough to do it knowing the signicant ramifications.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I bet Stanford LIVE -16.5 -125 med 2u
What sort of fuckin mismatch this is. Holy Christ. Thank God I can't get polish middled. Best decision I've made all week was only betting UNDER here and not going 0-2. Maybe Stanford can win 48-0 and i can go 2-0.
What sort of fuckin mismatch this is. Holy Christ. Thank God I can't get polish middled. Best decision I've made all week was only betting UNDER here and not going 0-2. Maybe Stanford can win 48-0 and i can go 2-0.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Onto the Saturday plays before I get to my national title play and a possible I-AA final play, as well. I will say that I am on Clempson +7 flat for a big 3.5u play. Will refuse to bet the ML as the math simply doesn't add up (it never does when you want to bet the dog in the Super Bowl or the CFB title game; playing for the elbow is the way many scalpers, hedgehogs and the like have made a fortune in this business. I do think Clempson will win though, and will explain why in the coming days).
Taxslayer Bowl
Call this one the "Underachiever Bowl", despite its date on the calendar. Each had 14-plus starters back; Georgia was supposed to win the SEC East while Penn State figured to be Ohio State's top challenger in the Big 10 East. Obviously, neither thing happened.
Penn State coach James Franklin guided three straight Vanderbilt teams to bowls before taking over in Happy Valley in 2014 and guiding Penn State to a bowl upset win over Boston College. The continuity he and his staff have with bowl experience might well come in handy, considering Georgia fired 15-year coach Mark Richt at the end of the regular season.
The Bulldogs expect to compete for national titles (I guess?) and a bowl all 15 years wasn't enough to save Richt, who landed on his feet when getting hired at Miami (Fla.) a few weeks ago. Penn State's defense will get after the quarterback and was a top-15 defense overall, but the talent disparity has me laying the points here. Georgia allowed the fewest passing yards in the country and gave up just 17 points per game while ranking eighth overall. Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg is an NFL-type talent, but his offensive line was again shoddy this fall, allowing a staggering 39 sacks.
Sure, the leftover players for UGA might well treat this trip to Jacksonville as nothing more than a chance to pick up a few hundred bucks worth of gear and a vacation to nearby Jacksonville, but if not, there's simply too much talent on their side to think they can't cover a touchdown against a pedestrian Penn State side. Lay it.
Prediction: Georgia 24, Penn State 12
The play: Georgia -6 -105 for 2u
Liberty Bowl
Kansas State got bowl eligible by winning its first three and last three games, overcoming the six-game losing streak in the middle of the season that was largely aided by the top-heavy Big 12 schedule the Wildcats were given this fall. A tip of the cap once again to 76-year old legendary coach Bill Snyder, who expertly guided KSU to a win over favored West Virginia in the season finale.
Arkansas started slow, at 1-3 and with home losses to Texas Tech and Toledo, before rallying to win six of eight to end the regular season. The Hogs had perhaps the SEC's most improved AND best quarterback in senior Brandon Allen, who will likely get a chance to at least be on a Sunday roster in 2016. Arkansas scored 37-plus ppg and had a great balance (30 TD passes, 26 TD rushes).
Snyder has remained mum on who will be his primary quarterback in this one; he's got a couple of options that the Hogs must prepare for but with a dearth of playmakers at tight end and on the outside, Arkansas should be able to focus on trying to stop the KSU running game.
K-State also gave up more than a touchdown more per game (23 last season to 30 in 2015) this fall and they'll likely struggle to ever stop the powerful Hogs, led by a bruising line and a fine quarterback. It's a big number, but an even bigger talent disparity. As much as you have to respect Snyder, note that the Wildcats are 0-3 SU/ATS as a dog in bowls since 2011.
Prediction: Arkansas 37, Kansas State 17
The play: Arkansas -12.5 for 2.5
Alamo Bowl
Hard to get a proper read on Texas Christian and Oregon. The Horned Frogs welcome the red-hot Ducks to the Texas, with the fast-track carpet of the Alamodome in San Antonio as the venue for a track meet (total in the mid-70s). The Horned Frogs boast a superior defense to Oregon and with all hands on deck, probably a better offense as well. Unfortunately, all hands are NOT on deck.
Biletnikoff finalist wide receiver Josh Doctson was lost for the season to injury with 3-plus games left. TCU could have survived that loss and a few other minor ones, but quarterback Trevone Boykin got suspended after he hit a police officer following an altercation with patrons at a sports bar near the team hotel late Wednesday night. Boykin had thrown for 400 yards and rushed for at least 40 six times; no one in the country had done that 1996. The spread zoomed from the "pick" range up to 7-ish in favor of Oregon.
Believe it or not, I'm a bit saddened by these developments. I had originally leaned Oregon. The Ducks got QB Vernon Adams back healthy in the middle of the season; they struggled on offense without him and had a few early-season hiccups. The last half of the season, Oregon went 6-0 (5-1 ATS) as Adams led them to 45 ppg in that stretch. Despite the porous Oregon defense, I had pegged the Ducks to be able to outscore TCU and was set to bet it. The Boykin suspension changed everything - but not for the reason you think.
Backup Bram Kohlhausen doesn't have the same tools that Boykin does, but was fairly impressive at Oklahoma. Boykin was injured in that game, yet the Horned Frogs took Oklahoma to the wire in a 30-29 loss. A 2-point conversion pass would have won that game. Kohlhausen isn't one touchdown (to the line) worse than Boykin. I still like the Ducks, but can't recommend laying a touchdown in what should be the best game of the day.
Prediction: Oregon 41, TCU 35
The play: OVER 74 for 1u
Cactus Bowl
Expectations were certainly high in Tempe this season, and Arizona State coach Todd Graham didn't do anything to quash them, saying that the preseason's 15th-ranked team in the AP poll was his best yet in the desert. How they ended up in a bowl game at Chase Field 10 miles away in Phoenix was quite simple - the Sun Devils were 2-7 ATS through nine games before three covers to end the season. ASU was expected to score points as well, yet played to just two OVERS against the number in their first 10 before the offense erupted for 52 against Arizona and 46 in a narrow loss at Cal to close the season.
West Virginia is the out-of-town visitor for this one; the Mountaineers routed Clemson 70-33 to wrap up the 2011 season with an Orange Bowl win, but are since 0-3 SU and ATS in bowls. And while some things work against WVU here, the positives seem worth pointing out. Dana Holgorsen's team outscored its foes 33-23 per game on the season despite finishing just 7-5. The Big 12 schedule was front-loaded, so after a 3-0 start the Mountaineers quickly found themselves 3-4 overall after losses to the top four teams in the league. Wins and covers followed in the next four against the second division of the loop but a loss at Kansas State in the season finale.
Sure, WV has failed (0-6 ATS against the Power-5 bowl teams on its schedule) in its biggest tests, but Arizona State is probably not as good as any of those foes, as evidenced by its defense giving up 33 ppg against a softer slate of foes than WV faced in its league.
Prediction: West Virginia 33, Arizona State 30
The play: West Virginia -2 -105 for 1u
Taxslayer Bowl
Call this one the "Underachiever Bowl", despite its date on the calendar. Each had 14-plus starters back; Georgia was supposed to win the SEC East while Penn State figured to be Ohio State's top challenger in the Big 10 East. Obviously, neither thing happened.
Penn State coach James Franklin guided three straight Vanderbilt teams to bowls before taking over in Happy Valley in 2014 and guiding Penn State to a bowl upset win over Boston College. The continuity he and his staff have with bowl experience might well come in handy, considering Georgia fired 15-year coach Mark Richt at the end of the regular season.
The Bulldogs expect to compete for national titles (I guess?) and a bowl all 15 years wasn't enough to save Richt, who landed on his feet when getting hired at Miami (Fla.) a few weeks ago. Penn State's defense will get after the quarterback and was a top-15 defense overall, but the talent disparity has me laying the points here. Georgia allowed the fewest passing yards in the country and gave up just 17 points per game while ranking eighth overall. Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg is an NFL-type talent, but his offensive line was again shoddy this fall, allowing a staggering 39 sacks.
Sure, the leftover players for UGA might well treat this trip to Jacksonville as nothing more than a chance to pick up a few hundred bucks worth of gear and a vacation to nearby Jacksonville, but if not, there's simply too much talent on their side to think they can't cover a touchdown against a pedestrian Penn State side. Lay it.
Prediction: Georgia 24, Penn State 12
The play: Georgia -6 -105 for 2u
Liberty Bowl
Kansas State got bowl eligible by winning its first three and last three games, overcoming the six-game losing streak in the middle of the season that was largely aided by the top-heavy Big 12 schedule the Wildcats were given this fall. A tip of the cap once again to 76-year old legendary coach Bill Snyder, who expertly guided KSU to a win over favored West Virginia in the season finale.
Arkansas started slow, at 1-3 and with home losses to Texas Tech and Toledo, before rallying to win six of eight to end the regular season. The Hogs had perhaps the SEC's most improved AND best quarterback in senior Brandon Allen, who will likely get a chance to at least be on a Sunday roster in 2016. Arkansas scored 37-plus ppg and had a great balance (30 TD passes, 26 TD rushes).
Snyder has remained mum on who will be his primary quarterback in this one; he's got a couple of options that the Hogs must prepare for but with a dearth of playmakers at tight end and on the outside, Arkansas should be able to focus on trying to stop the KSU running game.
K-State also gave up more than a touchdown more per game (23 last season to 30 in 2015) this fall and they'll likely struggle to ever stop the powerful Hogs, led by a bruising line and a fine quarterback. It's a big number, but an even bigger talent disparity. As much as you have to respect Snyder, note that the Wildcats are 0-3 SU/ATS as a dog in bowls since 2011.
Prediction: Arkansas 37, Kansas State 17
The play: Arkansas -12.5 for 2.5
Alamo Bowl
Hard to get a proper read on Texas Christian and Oregon. The Horned Frogs welcome the red-hot Ducks to the Texas, with the fast-track carpet of the Alamodome in San Antonio as the venue for a track meet (total in the mid-70s). The Horned Frogs boast a superior defense to Oregon and with all hands on deck, probably a better offense as well. Unfortunately, all hands are NOT on deck.
Biletnikoff finalist wide receiver Josh Doctson was lost for the season to injury with 3-plus games left. TCU could have survived that loss and a few other minor ones, but quarterback Trevone Boykin got suspended after he hit a police officer following an altercation with patrons at a sports bar near the team hotel late Wednesday night. Boykin had thrown for 400 yards and rushed for at least 40 six times; no one in the country had done that 1996. The spread zoomed from the "pick" range up to 7-ish in favor of Oregon.
Believe it or not, I'm a bit saddened by these developments. I had originally leaned Oregon. The Ducks got QB Vernon Adams back healthy in the middle of the season; they struggled on offense without him and had a few early-season hiccups. The last half of the season, Oregon went 6-0 (5-1 ATS) as Adams led them to 45 ppg in that stretch. Despite the porous Oregon defense, I had pegged the Ducks to be able to outscore TCU and was set to bet it. The Boykin suspension changed everything - but not for the reason you think.
Backup Bram Kohlhausen doesn't have the same tools that Boykin does, but was fairly impressive at Oklahoma. Boykin was injured in that game, yet the Horned Frogs took Oklahoma to the wire in a 30-29 loss. A 2-point conversion pass would have won that game. Kohlhausen isn't one touchdown (to the line) worse than Boykin. I still like the Ducks, but can't recommend laying a touchdown in what should be the best game of the day.
Prediction: Oregon 41, TCU 35
The play: OVER 74 for 1u
Cactus Bowl
Expectations were certainly high in Tempe this season, and Arizona State coach Todd Graham didn't do anything to quash them, saying that the preseason's 15th-ranked team in the AP poll was his best yet in the desert. How they ended up in a bowl game at Chase Field 10 miles away in Phoenix was quite simple - the Sun Devils were 2-7 ATS through nine games before three covers to end the season. ASU was expected to score points as well, yet played to just two OVERS against the number in their first 10 before the offense erupted for 52 against Arizona and 46 in a narrow loss at Cal to close the season.
West Virginia is the out-of-town visitor for this one; the Mountaineers routed Clemson 70-33 to wrap up the 2011 season with an Orange Bowl win, but are since 0-3 SU and ATS in bowls. And while some things work against WVU here, the positives seem worth pointing out. Dana Holgorsen's team outscored its foes 33-23 per game on the season despite finishing just 7-5. The Big 12 schedule was front-loaded, so after a 3-0 start the Mountaineers quickly found themselves 3-4 overall after losses to the top four teams in the league. Wins and covers followed in the next four against the second division of the loop but a loss at Kansas State in the season finale.
Sure, WV has failed (0-6 ATS against the Power-5 bowl teams on its schedule) in its biggest tests, but Arizona State is probably not as good as any of those foes, as evidenced by its defense giving up 33 ppg against a softer slate of foes than WV faced in its league.
Prediction: West Virginia 33, Arizona State 30
The play: West Virginia -2 -105 for 1u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
the Stanford coach can die in a car fire for all i care. what sort of bush league turd can you be to run a hook-and-go against Iowa walkon defensive backs up 38-16 inside of 2 minutes. I destroyed the number there and was set to scoop; now all of a sudden on suicide watch. Sick. Go Owe Miss i guess, pour it on like the rest of the fuckin favorites. Sigh.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Well, that was weird. And beyond. Shaw sticking a dagger in. He must has Ferentz and beyond.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I got this one right...
LIVE Owe Miss -10.5 -108 for 2.5 more units, monster play now
LIVE Owe Miss -10.5 -108 for 2.5 more units, monster play now
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
That will cash.
Okie State is a fraud.
Okie State is a fraud.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
On top of that Freeze is all business after that debacle vs. TCU last year.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Yeah, all business. Through 1H at least.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
yeah frank, check out the bottom of post 53; i was pretty well aware of what happened in this spot last year and it made me up my play another unit or so. The live addition is just gravy if it gets there.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Good for you my friend.
I've been fading Okie State since they went into the Baylor game and somehow lost to a WR turned QB. I like Gundy, but they are and have been paper tigers. A joke, fraud, whatever you want to call them.
I liked Freeze's interview at the half. Intense, and doesn't sound like a letup 2H. Such is what you get when completely embarrassed in your bowl last year.
Let's finish it off here.
I've been fading Okie State since they went into the Baylor game and somehow lost to a WR turned QB. I like Gundy, but they are and have been paper tigers. A joke, fraud, whatever you want to call them.
I liked Freeze's interview at the half. Intense, and doesn't sound like a letup 2H. Such is what you get when completely embarrassed in your bowl last year.
Let's finish it off here.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Nice job Rex. Pouncing on a bad team effectively playing a road game against a team that was hell bent on making amends for the crap bowl performance it had a year ago.
I was right there with you.
I was right there with you.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
a bit more to support jorja, from nelly's... 'Penn State had a 7-2 record heading into November but the Lions lost the final three, actually closing the season going 2-6 ATS in the final eight. The only win Penn State had over a bowl team this season came hosting San Diego State in September and four of the five defeats came by 12 or more points.'
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
The books are getting killed in bowl games from the looks of it but it doesn't make any difference. From what I've seen in the past books make their money in the regular season of all sports. In the playoffs the lines can only be adjusted so much and in some respects it's a lot easier to predict how teams will perform in the bowl games. All the favorites covered today (in the NBA as well).
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
Two friends who take action in Florida & NY have had their worst NFL & CFB season by far in 25 yrs.... yesterday was a complete May day for both. They claim guys that never win are winning at a 65% clip pretty much all year
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
with all the fave and OVER yesterday, suckers pretty much had a parade by bedtime last night for sure. The only saving grace for some is that in none of those five games did both sides cover (all 4 legs) of the teasers. The other one was that the last game stayed UNDER. Five OVERS and five faves through five games would have bookmakers scurrying for the bomb shelters before the weekend even started.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Arkansas LIVE -17.5 -120 for 2u more. This is a total bludgeoning. After the rocky start, the good guys have taken control and should draw off.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
also anyone who has any UFC 195 opinion is welcome to pop in my thread in the Golf, Tennis, MMA forum and comment. Dollaz and Grind also posted some plays from tonight's PPV card, and GLB has some tennis plays as well as the season begins officially tonight in just a few hours from now.
I am still on the fence on a few plays and can be talked into bigger plays or out of my initial bet altogether if you oppose me with good reasoning (although in the two main events, I'm against grind and i'm afraid that's just the way it will be cause I can't see myself getting off either of the two sides I played)...
:shake:
I am still on the fence on a few plays and can be talked into bigger plays or out of my initial bet altogether if you oppose me with good reasoning (although in the two main events, I'm against grind and i'm afraid that's just the way it will be cause I can't see myself getting off either of the two sides I played)...
:shake:
lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
These in-game adds have been pretty damn solid Rexy. Most (myself included) hate to add to a play at a worse adjusted price than what they played pre-game...but sometimes you have a great read, and if you can acknowledge it early, no reason not to capitalize. Wish I had done so at halftime of the Tennessee/Kentucky game where I buried the Vols before the game.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Yeah Matty, I'm still kicking myself for not betting UT that night, i was waist deep in Breeders Cup and brain was fried that night. UT at half should have been a monster bet there but didn't get to see much of the half and i don't like relying on the stats without my eyes to back it up.
twinkee - makes sense. I'm sure your friend is no idiot but prolly is a guy I'd have no problem booking if he tended to lay points and/or not value the number. Can see a lot of those types just swimming in Benjis these last few weeks save for last Sunday
twinkee - makes sense. I'm sure your friend is no idiot but prolly is a guy I'd have no problem booking if he tended to lay points and/or not value the number. Can see a lot of those types just swimming in Benjis these last few weeks save for last Sunday
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Added Texas Christian +7.5 -105 for 1.5u
Just taking a price, this one got way far away and is quite frankly an insult to Patterson, his pet 4-2-5, and whoever plays behind Boykin...
Looks like I'm against every sucker in the world here, which has been a recipe for disaster in these bowls.
:shake:
Just taking a price, this one got way far away and is quite frankly an insult to Patterson, his pet 4-2-5, and whoever plays behind Boykin...
Looks like I'm against every sucker in the world here, which has been a recipe for disaster in these bowls.
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
roof closed tonight in Phoenix for the Cactus Bowl, whatever that means.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
Another blow out by a fav, thats 8 in a row. The lines are so soft,,, public all over goergia & line drops to 6, should have gone to 7. Oregon could have been -10 & public would have still been all over them. Rex , I have made reference to these lines being soft in football all year. When the public is all over a team the line should not go away from that & for some reason that has been the case in many game in nfl & cfb this year, can you explain it?
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
i don't know if the Jorja game ever dropped to six. It never hit seven.
Oregon was as high as a 3 point dog at open; that was counting on Boykin playing and the game in Texas, but that line was not flawed. You cannot use numbers to cater to the public if you are booking any sort of serious bets or the wiseguys will gauge your eyeballs out. Boykin and 2 OL-men are NOT worth 10 points or more.
For all the shoe cobblers (hi Timh if you're around) and wanna-be bookmakers out there, you can use whatever you want. But for the people who are the true pros on this side of the counter, you would get laughed out of your seat if you tried to use something outside of the market on Oregon more than 7.5 when the world was painted 7. You just don't do it. That's the whole point of getting the write. I only bet the dog after it hit that number at a cheap juice.
In reality, the big dogs that book the sharp are smiling right now. They are paying out money to suckers who will give it back and taking it from guys who are very hard to beat. I would much rather take a few days/weeks in the ass from guys who can't beat me than to get it from guys who will gouge my eyeballs out. I learned this the hard way a few years ago.
Oregon was as high as a 3 point dog at open; that was counting on Boykin playing and the game in Texas, but that line was not flawed. You cannot use numbers to cater to the public if you are booking any sort of serious bets or the wiseguys will gauge your eyeballs out. Boykin and 2 OL-men are NOT worth 10 points or more.
For all the shoe cobblers (hi Timh if you're around) and wanna-be bookmakers out there, you can use whatever you want. But for the people who are the true pros on this side of the counter, you would get laughed out of your seat if you tried to use something outside of the market on Oregon more than 7.5 when the world was painted 7. You just don't do it. That's the whole point of getting the write. I only bet the dog after it hit that number at a cheap juice.
In reality, the big dogs that book the sharp are smiling right now. They are paying out money to suckers who will give it back and taking it from guys who are very hard to beat. I would much rather take a few days/weeks in the ass from guys who can't beat me than to get it from guys who will gouge my eyeballs out. I learned this the hard way a few years ago.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Numbers, all it is.
I turned the game off at 21-0.
If I had known the Oregon QB had gotten hurt and would not play the 2H (and i saw ANY sign of life from TCU before or live) i would have fired. He is easily one of the top 3 most valuable players to his team in the country. Look at them with and without him. Meanwhile, look at TCU with my guy.
Who knows. The fights are ruining my night so fuck it all.
:shake:
I turned the game off at 21-0.
If I had known the Oregon QB had gotten hurt and would not play the 2H (and i saw ANY sign of life from TCU before or live) i would have fired. He is easily one of the top 3 most valuable players to his team in the country. Look at them with and without him. Meanwhile, look at TCU with my guy.
Who knows. The fights are ruining my night so fuck it all.
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Live OVER in Phoenix... once again as linde said getting in at a bad number after these quick scores, but this is a track meet now. Might be two more scores before half. If not, I will still commit if need be, for more...
OVER WVU OVER 64.5 -106 med 2u
OVER WVU OVER 64.5 -106 med 2u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
2H Ariz State OVER 34 even money big 3u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
LIVE West By God Virginia -105 for 1.5u
Get the ball now, too many athletes and I really think they will win outright; a 3-point deficit at 25-22 is pretty eay to overcome i would hope (pray)
Get the ball now, too many athletes and I really think they will win outright; a 3-point deficit at 25-22 is pretty eay to overcome i would hope (pray)
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