Return of the MAC

Marsski said:
I thought the Chips QB looked pretty good and they ran the ball well against the Bobcat D front 7. They were a little lucky to get 2 turnovers from the Cats, but holding OU to 4/11 on third down (and 0/1 4th down) meant they were getting off the field.

Buffalo had a bunch of defensive scores which can be misleading, but the little bit I watched last week I didn't think too much of NIU. These Huskies are some young pups (62 freshmen) and we're really hurt by the lack of practice this summer and fall. On defense, they have only 3 starters back (mostly at LB) and in the secondary went from experienced guys to one guy back, a S. Dakota State transfer, and two freshman at safety. They are gonna beat over the top a lot early I would think.
They had 5 turnovers and coughed the ball up 7x overall.
I like CMU coming off a big win and think they have the better QB and defense in this game. I'd lay the 7.5 or nothing.
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Thanks!
 
I'm going back to the well in Athens tonight with the Over 57. Akron has a fucking horrible defense and gave up 58 points and 8.34 yards per play! in week one to Western. Bobcat were unlucky not to score more than 27 against the Chips and may have found their QB last week with Rourke 2.0.
I do think they'll have some kind of package (maybe in the red zone) for Rogers and I expect Tuggle to run wild on the Zips. Our fucking kicker needs to be shot.

On defense, the Cats didn't impress me that much, I thought the run D was leaky. I expect the Zips to get some points especially considering that they get a lot of possessions with that shitty D. Akron scored on their first possession and their QB Gibson didn't look that bad when I was watching, they also had a 49 yard run on 4th and 1 which would have been the longest run from scrimmage in 2019. They are a little more explosive than last year and have an IU RB transfer that didn't play last week (COvid??). Kato could be back down the road at QB, but not this week.

I'm seeing a 48-20ish type game. I'd take Bobcat TT over 41.5 but it's juiced to -132 on BOL right now...if it comes down, I'll be on it small.

Weather should be really nice in A Town tonight.


My Play: The Ovah 57
 
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Jackpot777 said:
The only real impression I got from last week is that Kent State could've played a lot better. I gotta read more about these teams
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Yes, I had Eastern Michigan and felt fortunate to get that cover. If Kent State had played as well in the 2nd H as they did the first Kent should've won comfortably. Some credit could be given to how Eastern came out of the locker room. The Eastern Michigan D is quite a concern. Kent should be getting some key players back on their OL (starting Center) and a couple on D (LB and S) but I have not checked into their status yet.
 
s--k said:
Yes, I had Eastern Michigan and felt fortunate to get that cover. If Kent State had played as well in the 2nd H as they did the first Kent should've won comfortably. Some credit could be given to how Eastern came out of the locker room. The Eastern Michigan D is quite a concern. Kent should be getting some key players back on their OL (starting Center) and a couple on D (LB and S) but I have not checked into their status yet.
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What about Hassan Beydoun! I love my obscure MAC WRs
 
Other games tonight (Tuesday):

No interest in laying 20.5 with Kent. I'd have BG or nothing but that offense is really terrible as QB was 8/30 with 2 picks vs Toledo. Lean to the under on the total but always scary in the MAC...NO bets for me


I have some interest in Buffalo -9 against the Dickbelts. I made the game 7ish so I can't say I see value, I just think Buffalo has the much better offense and Gabbard status is ?. I know the Miami freshman QB played well in relief, but that Buffalo D is a little more stout than what he saw last week. Best running back in the MAC is on Buffalo.

I may stick Buffalo ML in some kind of parlay...or try to live bet something at 7 or better if I get the chance
 
Akron on an 18 game losing streak as a 28 point underdog was in the game in the 4th quarter. Zips running game showed life with 217 yards on the ground. In total Akron racked up 435 total yards, their most since the 2018 opener vs Morgan St. Rourke started and Ohio scored first on a drive that featured a 40y pass into the RZ and Tuggle took it from there. Akron drove into OU territory but were SOD. OU drove to the A34, but were sacked and forced to punt. Teams exchanged punts until converted Zip WR, RB Boogie Knight fumbled handing OU the ball at the A41. Rodgers came in and OU soon had a 14-0 lead. Later Rodgers was sacked on a 3rd-and-2, OU would actually 3-and-out punt on their final two 1st H drives. Akron would go on a 9p 97y drive for TD to trail 7-14. Akron got the ball back again before HT and drove off their 20, but would miss a 50y FG as time expired. Teams exchanged FGs then in the 4th Q Akron was INT'd on back-to-back possessions with OU taking over at the A19 and A20, but missed 28y and 29y FGs to keep the game 17-10 mid 4th Q. Next time OU had the ball they fed Tuggle 9 straight plays and he carried all of their 70 yards and punched it in to extend the lead 24-10 with just 2min left. Akron got 56 of their yards on the final possesion as time expired in the game. Akron outgained Ohio 239-177 in the 1st H. For the game Akron outgained them 435-307 although the yards per play were the same 6.0-6.1. Ohio was just 2-of-10 3rd down to Akron's 7-of-16 (Zips also 2-of-3 4th down).

Ohio punted from Akron territory 3x. Each team registered 3 sacks.

MyJaden Horton is Akron's short yardage QB. Gibson started his second game.

I'd say it doesn't look like Ohio needs Rodgers and the 3 possession he led in the 1st H did yield a short field TD after a Zips fumble, but the other 2 were 3-and-outs. Rourke QB'd the entire 2nd H.
 
Kent State is 2-0 for the first time since 1988. Kent rolled up 667 yards in the 62-24 win. It was 38-10 HT with Kent scoring on their first 6 possessions of the game. After a lower scoring 3rd Q, the teams combined for 31 pts in the 4th. 184 of BG's 365 yards came on their final 3 possessions. Kent was 11-of-19 3rd down and as one might expect, BG was just 2-of-13. BG had 6 first downs at halftime (finished with 16). Through 2 games now BG QB Matt McDonald is completing 14-50-233-0-2.
 
Buffalo pounded their second straight MAC opponent and for the second straight week the opponent had opportunities to stay in the game before it spiraled out of control. 1st Q yardage was 56-51. Miami stuffed Buffalo on a 4th and 1 and Miami missed a FG. Miami's passing game was off all night and they suffered through numerous drops and overthrows. Failing to capitalize caught up with them as the Buffalo machine does what it does UB put together a 14p 78y drive to lead 7-0 in the 2nd Q. Then after an INT, UB O hit a 78y bomb for a 14-0 lead. Score was 14-7 HT with Buffalo having 100 more yards at the break. Miami gained just 19 yards on their first 3 possessions of the 2nd H while UB scored TDs on 4 straight possessions to blow it open. UB finished with a 558 to 258 TY edge including the expected 200+y rushing, but surprisingly they passed for 353y, Vantrease's previous career high was only 208 yards! His ypa was 13! Mayer started in place of Gabbert and due to the drops and some of his inaccuracy he finished just 7-25-116.
 
Central and Ball St touched 9.5 this morning. Seems like a lot. Both of the favorites have more things figured out and known vs NIU and EM...not sure how much I want to lay pts now with CM...kinda want to think EM can keep it close again as long as their D makes some improvements. Still like Western Michigan, that's not changing. Cold front rolled through last night, expect more November like weather, no precip but temps in the lower 40s/upper 30s.
 
EMU under Creighton since 2016 is 24-4-1 ATS as an underdog. That includes 12 SU wins. As a conference underdog since 2016 EMU is 15-2–1 ATS.

Ball State is 7-10 as a favorite under Mike Neu.

Situationally this is EMU all day long. Creighton’s team will compete and I think Kent State is a tad better than what was initially thought.
 
Inspekdah said:
All 3 dogs liked by the public...
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Results from last night certainly back Northern Illinois and Western Michigan plays. Public appears to be on Central Michigan based upon Action Network. It was as high as 9.5 this morning and then bought back down to 7.5. Not sure public money would move EMU two points in the last two hours.
 
rambler882 said:
My uneducated reads
Eastern Michigan +9
Western Michigan -2.5
Northern Illinois +7
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I will be on the first two. I am going back and forth on the CM-NIU game. Last night I bet a team I didn't think I would bucking the line move right before KO so I wait until the final minutes, even seconds to decide on some of these.
 
s--k said:
I wait until the final minutes, even seconds to decide on some of these.
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That's my standard method of betting. I want to see those first couple of minutes when the broadcast comes on but kickoff is still a few minutes away.

Almost every time I get more information--and more reliable information--about which players are in or out and what the weather is than i get all week.

If I know for sure I'm betting a side early in the week like Florida and N Dame last week I go ahead and bet in case the number changes, but 98% of the time I wait until I hear what the announcers say when the telecast opens.

Only one I bet early this week was Tulsa -1 because I expected that line to move away from me fast.

But most of the time I prefer to take a look at the conditions and get the latest player news
 
s--k, you have quickly become one of the top cappers for NCAAFB on this site. If playing, I would definitely choose your side if ever torn on a side/total on a game I was contemplating. Just wanted to drop some appreciation for your contributions, as sometimes thing are simply not stated enough. GL throughout the remainder of the year. I'll continue reading your post for input into your thinking/evaluations. Kudos...
 
booksbestfriend said:
s--k, you have quickly become one of the top cappers for NCAAFB on this site. If playing, I would definitely choose your side if ever torn on a side/total on a game I was contemplating. Just wanted to drop some appreciation for your contributions, as sometimes thing are simply not stated enough. GL throughout the remainder of the year. I'll continue reading your post for input into your thinking/evaluations. Kudos...
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Thank you so much. I get a lot of enjoyment out of the forum I'm glad people get some from what I contribute.

I struggle to know which side I like as I suspect others do. My fun is in the process as much as the actual results.
 
I really believe that Central is the better team, better staff and more to play for (MAC Title game last year, legit goal of getting back). My inner "yeah but" does often give dogs a chance. If this line is 7 or less I think I have no choice but to take CM. It's 6.5 after being 9.5 less than 12 hours ago. That's a lot of move through key number. Will want to see if any news.

Toledo has the running game but that is pretty much it. I think WM is better all around and on the upswing to me, Toledo is slipping. So WM it is for me and I liked it immediately upon seeing that line.

EM D worries me, I do think they have an O that can compete, just not very explosive. Counting on Ball St to win comfortably to me is less palatable than betting on EM to keep it close, as rochclone points out they excel in this role. I'd take the over in this one too even though it's a tad higher than I'd like.
 
Chippewa message board is pretty dead, they talk about recruiting and Big Ten schools more than their own almost

MLive rarely has good CM info.

CMlife usually has some good stories. I just saw Titus Davis died. Damn. Great receiver for them.

Other CM stories:

www.cm-life.com

Bounce back game needed in Chippewa secondary after week one struggles

Jim McElwain said the Chippewa secondary needs to improve before its game at Northern Illinois on Wednesday.
www.cm-life.com www.cm-life.com

www.cm-life.com

Chippewas open divisional play with trip to NIU

The Chippewas lead the series 30-24-1.
www.cm-life.com www.cm-life.com
 
western went from 10 to #118 on experience chart according to steele. With that said he loves their qb. ......to me this game comes down to toledo defensive staff changes. I don't know much besides the fact that mount union is a great credentials for the new dc kehres and I'm interested to see if that mount union background shows up.
 
^ True, WM did lose their QB and exceptional RB. But I think their receivers are better as a group, the passing O can be better than last year and they return 2 of the 3 All MAC OL. The D takes some loses as well, but still looks pretty solid, they return more All MAC players (3) than they lost (2). And I like the mentality they had in the offseason.

Toledo only has one way to go on D, but I actually think they need something changes on offense as well to regain their former self.

Toledo has won 3 straight, so there is that.
 
Thanks, guys. I had no idea about any of these games, but hit a couple of nice parlays with over on WMU/Toledo and EMU/Ball and WMU- and EMU+ based on what you guys posted.

Good way to start the week.

Took a Gambler Killer play on that last TD by WMU to win the second one. I feel for anyone who was on the wrong side of that one
 
Tuesday 11/17

Buffalo -31.5 / 60.5 (Circa opened 29 / 56.5)
Bowling Green

Akron
Kent -23.5 / 59.5 (Circa opened 23 / 61.5)

Ohio pk / 55.5
Miami Oh - CANCELED


Wednesday 11/18

Norther Illinois
Ball State -14.5 /62.5 (Circa opened 15 /59.5)

Toledo -6.5 / 58.5 (Circa opened 8 / 55.5)
Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan (Circa opened WM -2 / 64.5)
Central Michigan -2.5 / 61.5
 
s--k said:
Tuesday 11/17

Buffalo -31.5 / 60.5 (Circa opened 29 / 56.5)
Bowling Green

Akron
Kent -23.5 / 59.5 (Circa opened 23 / 61.5)

Ohio pk / 55.5
Miami Oh - CANCELED


Wednesday 11/18

Norther Illinois
Ball State -14.5 /62.5 (Circa opened 15 /59.5)

Toledo -6.5 / 58.5 (Circa opened 8 / 55.5)
Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan (Circa opened WM -2 / 64.5)
Central Michigan -2.5 / 61.5
Click to expand...
I sort of like Akron in this game. They ran the ball well against Ohio last week and okay against Western Michigan. 26-3 last year and these are hated rivals so could make for a close game. Seeing 27.0 and 27.5 now and wouldn’t be surprised if you get 28+ at game time.
 
I am going to take Akron as well.

Winter today, I'm about an hour east of Kent. Snow flurries off an on all day. Don't think we will get any snow tonight, but it's cold. I think wind will taper off to a breeze by game time. I expect the weather in Bowling Green to be the same.

Funny coincidence that the top two MAC East contenders are facing the two worst MAC teams tonight.

I do think there is a difference between Bowling Green and Akron. BG has proved to be completely inept on offense in their first two games compared to an Akron team, who did get blown out game 1 vs Western, but Akron did score on 3 of their first 4 drives of that game (TD and two FGs). Then the Zip O was completely shut down thereafter, but that showed some life. And then we have last week where Akron outgained an always solid Ohio team by 128 yards! Akron ran for over 200y! More signs of life. I think it is hard to fade Kent in general because there have been some things to like about them so far this year, but like you say Rochclone, catching about 4 TDs with a team that might be starting to climb out of the basement a little more quickly than the odds are accounting for in a close proximity rivalry game is something I'm willing to take a chance on.

I'll snoop around and see if there is any local news out of these teams.
 
Western only outgained Akron 245-206 in their 1st H game 1 (WM led 30-13 which included a WM pick-six).
 
Might want to keep an eye and ear out, or tune in TV/radio before kickoff. The fact that Ohio had a covid outbreak could mean some players on Akron effected. I'm not seeing anything other than that potential existing for Akron.
 
If Kent wins tonight, they will move to 3-0 for the first time since 1958!

If Akron loses tonight they will tie UTEP for the longest losing streak over the past last 10 years at 20 games.
 
thinking about hedging off of the akron fade - some signs of life there

Eastern can't stop the run - If toledo can get theres just based on a good matchup --35 points seems very likely - I think a play on the over would have to hit if eastern is going to cover
 
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