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Recent Line Moves

L

lvmike32

Pretty much a regular
Have BOL, BM and Circa as outs. Here's some line moves I've noticed last few days. These books often have 1 to 1.5 difference now.

Navy to +18.5 - looks like 21 will never come back
Ohio to +3 - think opened 4.5
Kent St to +33 - think opened 31.5, to 35.5 and now back down
GT to +7.5 - keeps inching down from 10.
Fresno to +4.5 - was pretty steady at 6. Still at 6 in some spots
S Car to +3
N Mex to +37- was around 40

sure they are others. Obviously should start to see more moves as we get closer.
 
lvmike32 said:
Have BOL, BM and Circa as outs. Here's some line moves I've noticed last few days. These books often have 1 to 1.5 difference now.

Navy to +18.5 - looks like 21 will never come back
Ohio to +3 - think opened 4.5
Kent St to +33 - think opened 31.5, to 35.5 and now back down
GT to +7.5 - keeps inching down from 10.
Fresno to +4.5 - was pretty steady at 6. Still at 6 in some spots
S Car to +3
N Mex to +37- was around 40

sure they are others. Obviously should start to see more moves as we get closer.
Click to expand...
As someone who lives for line movement I don't read anything into it until gameday

Football is the worst, injuries and suspensions are more important than a July line move
 
Def a risk takin anything until we see a fall camp depth chart .. only reason to do it sooner is ya think its a real good line and you expect the line to move in some meaningful way and at this point there can't be too many targets like that, lines been around for at least a month now... I play a few games pre-ssn every year, I'd have to look back but my sense is I coulda just played em all week of the game and had about the same results, at least for Week 1, I get more value out of the GOY's .. RSW's and Conf Futures are a diff story, can lose value quick gotta be first ..
 
I was shocked to see new mexico state down to -7.5 today at BM. was as high as -12 waaaay early, -10 widely available and has crept down consistently...long travel for UMASS. would not put my hard earned $$ on those guys making that trip, knowing what I know about NMSU.

What is really interesting is the dichotomy between books. some books have moved. some have stayed. we are 45 days till kickoff, maybe some settling in the market? or we could see steam on gameday back up to the originally posted lines, putting some bettors in the "Polish Middle"...
 
lvmike32 said:
Have BOL, BM and Circa as outs. Here's some line moves I've noticed last few days. These books often have 1 to 1.5 difference now.

Navy to +18.5 - looks like 21 will never come back
Ohio to +3 - think opened 4.5
Kent St to +33 - think opened 31.5, to 35.5 and now back down
GT to +7.5 - keeps inching down from 10.
Fresno to +4.5 - was pretty steady at 6. Still at 6 in some spots
S Car to +3
N Mex to +37- was around 40

sure they are others. Obviously should start to see more moves as we get closer.
Click to expand...
South Carolina +3 — wow. I was excited about the prospect of teasing to 8, but this makes the straight play look great. UNC might be the most overrated team in the country. People don’t seem to grasp how bad the Coastal was last year.
 
Bridge1 said:
Def a risk takin anything until we see a fall camp depth chart .. only reason to do it sooner is ya think its a real good line and you expect the line to move in some meaningful way and at this point there can't be too many targets like that, lines been around for at least a month now... I play a few games pre-ssn every year, I'd have to look back but my sense is I coulda just played em all week of the game and had about the same results, at least for Week 1, I get more value out of the GOY's .. RSW's and Conf Futures are a diff story, can lose value quick gotta be first ..
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I'm an ISU diehard, I don't get value until we beat Iowa
 
steponaduck said:
What’s the UNI line going to be? Seems like every year it’s 28+ and Iowa state plays them to a 5 point grind.
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Going to be a weird first month. I simply don't know what to expect. Would always take UNI + whatever, not even sure who the QB eill be. The freshman is the highest rated recruit in school history.
 
KJ said:
Going to be a weird first month. I simply don't know what to expect. Would always take UNI + whatever, not even sure who the QB eill be. The freshman is the highest rated recruit in school history.
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I have a rule, anyone getting +3 or more in the Cyhawk game its an autoplay .. that's one of the few autoplays I make on GOY lines .. been great the last few years and lines been crazy like 6 or so .. how often either team win by that much, think not often ..

I was hopeful for Iowa St this yr heard a rumor Dekkars might be wrapped up in the gambling scandal .. kid is legit good found a way to have a good yr with just an insanely bad run game and only concern was the receiving targets but sounds like the new guy Higgins is a sure thing to fill the big WR1 hole .... yeah a few more ppg LY and they nearly flip their horrible conf record... total shame ..

Really like them getting rid of the OC, had to do something .. Sheelhasse promo sounds like a good cultural fit been there a few yrs players like him but he looks like he just enrolled as a freshman there lol ... I think a promising hire w the N.Iowa OL coach .. just everyone on O is a bit light on experience I assume Campbell is the experienced hand and heavily involved.. very much a we'll see .. nothing compared to the staff of veterans Heacock gets, its no wonder the D comes up Aces every year .
 
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Bridge1 said:
I have a rule, anyone getting +3 or more in the Cyhawk game its an autoplay .. that's one of the few autoplays I make on GOY lines .. been great the last few years and lines been crazy like 6 or so .. how often either team win by that much, think not often ..

I was hopeful for Iowa St this yr heard a rumor Dekkars might be wrapped up in the gambling scandal .. kid is legit good found a way to have a good yr with just an insanely bad run game and only concern was the receiving targets but sounds like the new guy Higgins is a sure thing to fill the big WR1 hole .... yeah a few more ppg LY and they nearly flip their horrible conf record... total shame ..

Really like them getting rid of the OC, had to do something .. Sheelhasse promo sounds like a good cultural fit been there a few yrs players like him but he looks like he just enrolled as a freshman there lol ... I think a promising hire w the N.Iowa OL coach .. just everyone on O is a bit light on experience I assume Campbell is the experienced hand and heavily involved.. very much a we'll see .. nothing compared to the staff of veterans Heacock gets, its no wonder the D comes up Aces every year .
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I hadn't heard that about Dekkers but I haven't heard anything about the gambling since the news broke. Thing with him is he throws a nice deep ball but tried to force intermediate passes too often and those tended to turn into picks. I'm sure they will try to get Kohl involved early if possible, don't want to lose him to the portal after he stuck to his commitment and even did early registration. Could be a good reason to bench Dekkers w/o being controversial. Team is loaded with young talent, think it's the first time in school history they had a top 25 class for a minute, not sure where it ended up being but definitely like the OC hire to go along with the talent, probably be another season of some bruises along the way but as long as they're learning experiences I have no problem with it. Expectations aren't overly high just because of that.
 
steponaduck said:
I was shocked to see new mexico state down to -7.5 today at BM. was as high as -12 waaaay early, -10 widely available and has crept down consistently...long travel for UMASS. would not put my hard earned $$ on those guys making that trip, knowing what I know about NMSU.

What is really interesting is the dichotomy between books. some books have moved. some have stayed. we are 45 days till kickoff, maybe some settling in the market? or we could see steam on gameday back up to the originally posted lines, putting some bettors in the "Polish Middle"...
Click to expand...
yeah think Bridge found N Mex St -7. I didn't include here because it's been coming down from 12 consistently (not just last few days) as you state above. though last few days it's been coming down from that 10. Weird - I always think of early money = sharp money but hard to understand this one. Also Kent St coming back down under 35. it's been interesting watching lines between BOL, BM and Circa. Going to add Heritage soon. My friend who is a pro gambler says BM is the sharp book, so tend to look at which way they are shading.
 
lvmike32 said:
yeah think Bridge found N Mex St -7. I didn't include here because it's been coming down from 12 consistently (not just last few days) as you state above. though last few days it's been coming down from that 10. Weird - I always think of early money = sharp money but hard to understand this one. Also Kent St coming back down under 35. it's been interesting watching lines between BOL, BM and Circa. Going to add Heritage soon. My friend who is a pro gambler says BM is the sharp book, so tend to look at which way they are shading.
Click to expand...
that was me who found that...and bet it.
 
steponaduck said:
UTEP now -1...started becoming widely available at +3.5
saw coastal carolina touch +17 briefly...
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Yeah, saw that as I was gonna take em back at +2.5 but didn't have my account funded til today...Took the +1.5 117 at Heritage this am, as I think they will be favs by game time, so figured I wouldn't get another shot at em as dogs.
 
New mex st down to 7 at circa. Down from 12 opener i think. But umass?? I just added heritage to bm and bol today. Will say circa offers some sometimes interesting differences to offshore. Huge limits too. By far best US based book ive seen.
 
lvmike32 said:
New mex st down to 7 at circa. Down from 12 opener i think. But umass?? I just added heritage to bm and bol today. Will say circa offers some sometimes interesting differences to offshore. Huge limits too. By far best US based book ive seen.
Click to expand...
Circa takes big bets. That is rare in the US.

First class operation, and a great spot to watch a game.

Hopefully I am watching UM crush Nebraska there with @cubsker at the end of September :)
 
I'm curious when the reputable services will release on these week 0 and week 1 games this year...
 
I think someone released Navy + ND over 49 when it touched there briefly...it immediately went to 51.5 before settling back...
 
B.A.R. said:
I'm curious when the reputable services will release on these week 0 and week 1 games this year...
Click to expand...
Any thoughts or guesses on remaining major line moves, if any?? I haven't looked at RAS in many years. Does Edward still move lines at all?

Few moves ive noticed last few days.

Utah moving down to -7.5 vs Florida
Louisville moving fown to -7.5 vs gt.
 
lvmike32 said:
Few more ive noticed
Colorado up to +21.5
Wiscy to -26
No Ill down to +8.5
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Makes me feel better about my early wisky and niu plays even though my early grabs tend not to come into play when all is said and done (but still feels good from a psychological standpoint)
 
carolinablue said:
Makes me feel better about my early wisky and niu plays even though my early grabs tend not to come into play when all is said and done (but still feels good from a psychological standpoint)
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Yeah i have wiscy 23.5 and no ill 11 so feel good too. Most of my early bets have good value. Few clunkers. We'll see if it matters. Gl this year
 
seeing Fresno down to +4.5 and O/U down to 49 (I watch it because I bet U53.5 weeks ago). 2 PT. move on O/U from yesterday. I know someone posted yesterday how two Purdue starting WR are out. I played Purdue +6 too - bought 1/2.
See Sam Houston St down to 22.5
 
UCONN down to +14.5 vs NC State.. not sure it ever got to +17, but 16.5 was available for a long time

Wyoming is +14.5 vs Tech at Caesars (13.5 at MGM)
 
UMASS + NMSU TOTAL UP TO 44.5 OR 45
GEORGIA TECH DOWN TO +7.5
HAWAII DOWN TO +7.5 AT HOME AGAINST TREE
FRESNO STATE DOWN TO +4.5
NORTHERN ILL DOWN TO +8
SOUTH CAROLINA +3
TOLEDO DOWN TO +8.5
COLORADO STATE DOWN TO +13
CALIFORNIA LINE DOWN TO -7
 
steponaduck said:
UMASS + NMSU TOTAL UP TO 44.5 OR 45
GEORGIA TECH DOWN TO +7.5
HAWAII DOWN TO +7.5 AT HOME AGAINST TREE
FRESNO STATE DOWN TO +4.5
NORTHERN ILL DOWN TO +8
SOUTH CAROLINA +3
TOLEDO DOWN TO +8.5
COLORADO STATE DOWN TO +13
CALIFORNIA LINE DOWN TO -7
Click to expand...
actually saw a 7.5 on Northern Ill. All those "7.5" games (what I call them) started at 10 or above I think. Still don't get the UMass love.
 
carolinablue said:
It’s funny because most of the moves have gone in my favor, but I was still irritated with myself for not hitting that submit button on this one at 14.5 when I thought about it a few weeks back. Always focus on the ones that got away haha
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This is why I hate betting early. Usually the weeks I feel great all week about beating closing numbers are the weeks I end up getting my ass kicked. Nice to have gravitated to more live betting.
 
carolinablue said:
It’s funny because most of the moves have gone in my favor, but I was still irritated with myself for not hitting that submit button on this one at 14.5 when I thought about it a few weeks back. Always focus on the ones that got away haha
Click to expand...
Yeah i bought 1/2 to +15 awhile ago. Kind of surprised by movement. Washington state qb pretty good. We'll see
 
KJ said:
This is why I hate betting early. Usually the weeks I feel great all week about beating closing numbers are the weeks I end up getting my ass kicked. Nice to have gravitated to more live betting.
Click to expand...
Yeah people either love it or hate it without much middle ground, but over the years it has benefited my bankroll so if it ain’t broke don’t fix it in my view. Definitely see both sides and at the end of the day, gotta do what works best for ya, so have no issues with those who go another route.
 
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