carolinablue
College Football Guru
12.5 at heritage and BOL with BM at 10.5. Always interesting to see variances like that…
Recent Line Moves
- Thread starter lvmike32
- Start date
BM still pretty sharp right @big_units ?
I can answer for Big Units as I work with him. Yes, BM is the sharpest offshore book around. Not even close per BU - in fact other books will monitor BM and adjust to them at times. If you compare them to other books LIVE lines and figure out when they're shading a game to one side/total, BU say you will win 65%ish of the time - he's seen it for years. Of course the definition of when they're shading is subjective (i.e. how many points, what time of game you're at, pregame line, etc.).
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Just looking at lines over the years it seems to go 1. Pinny 2. BM but not like most of us could ever use Pinny
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not sure how a VPN would work anyway, you simply can't have a US IP address there
If you're in very N Washington state is it possible to get a Canadian VPN? I wouldn't think so
I haven't had pinny since fall 2007?
The ole "Port Bill"
F*****s
That and Netteller. Good times!
BM is a very important tool for live betting as o really discovered chatting with BU during '21-'22 NBA season.
Yeah they're the key book.
few interesting ones as we get closer:
Fresno St down to +3.5
Utah down to -7 - sounds like Rising might be out. #2 backup definitely out.
Liberty been stuck on -12 and saw both -11 and -13 at different books
Wiscy as high as -26 now
Stanford/Cal both down to -7
L Tech busted out of +17 to +19 now vs. SMU
got good lines on most of my bets. one big clunker (i.e. when Wyoming was 13 I bought to 14 thinking it would go down).
Fresno St down to +3.5
Utah down to -7 - sounds like Rising might be out. #2 backup definitely out.
Liberty been stuck on -12 and saw both -11 and -13 at different books
Wiscy as high as -26 now
Stanford/Cal both down to -7
L Tech busted out of +17 to +19 now vs. SMU
got good lines on most of my bets. one big clunker (i.e. when Wyoming was 13 I bought to 14 thinking it would go down).
Appreciate the tracking.
satnightfever05
Pretty much a regular
Saw Wisky at -27 yesterday @ Caesars
Yup, saw Wiscy up to -27. some others I've seen now that we're getting close.
SDSU to -2
Notre Dame at -21
CF to -36.5
Florida to +6.5 - sounds like Rising will be out. 2nd QB definitely out.
Hawaii to +6.5 vs Tree
Old Dom to +16 - don't they give VT hell every year?
UCLA to -14.5
Virginia to +29
Sure we'll get a lot more now that we're so close
SDSU to -2
Notre Dame at -21
CF to -36.5
Florida to +6.5 - sounds like Rising will be out. 2nd QB definitely out.
Hawaii to +6.5 vs Tree
Old Dom to +16 - don't they give VT hell every year?
UCLA to -14.5
Virginia to +29
Sure we'll get a lot more now that we're so close
carolinablue
College Football Guru
The Va Tech -16.5 at BM surprised me as that one kinda hung out around 13.5 all summer. Haven't looked into it, so not sure what caused the 3 point move as that game is a no play for me as I have no idea how the Hokies will come out...
Yeah i haven't looked but in my mind it seems like OD always plays them tough. But everything i read is OD should be pretty bad this year. But yeah busted right through 14 quick.
big_units
Pretty much a regular
sorry just saw this now. yeah, mike pretty much summed it up. i guess i can't really attest to BM's pre-game shading because i simply don't monitor it enough to know how often they're right. they are easily the sharpest in-game lines, not just for NBA, but across the board in football, baseball, and hockey. and, i do know when i recognize them having an obvious shade live, they're generally correct in the neighborhood of 60%, if not higher. been tracking it for about 5 years now, so no small sample size. it could be possible that they are much sharper on the in-game, but i would think they are just as solid on the pre-game as well. if BOL, BAS, etc. all have -3, -3.5/-180 on a live line, and BM shows -1/-130, and you really want to take the favorite...stay the fuck away from that bet. will save you a nice chunk of money in the long run.
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big_units
Pretty much a regular
the best VPN services like cyberghost and nordvpn offer connections all around the world. from major cities like london to some random obscure shit in macedonia. they offer over 50 different countries to choose from. when the book notices you're using a VPN though, you'll probably have to go through extra steps when it's time for payout, especially if the your registered address is not near the VPN location you're logging in from. the big risk with pinnacle is...let's say you're connecting to a london VPN from los angeles, and your internet connection drops out. your true IP will start to ping in LA instead of london. if pinnacle notices, then they will probably confiscate your balance because you're showing in their restricted country. same goes with the u.s. books that only operate in certain states like NV and NJ. you can log in from a NJ vpn to fool them, but if it disconnects and you ping from CA, they can fuck you over.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
No, ODU does not give VPI hell every year. They do it every other year. They won the last one so I would look for VPI to cover this year. Not betting it though.
some pretty big moves today (my number if I have game):
Florida down to +5 (Florida +8)
BGreen down to +10 (BG +12)
Fresno St down to +3.5 (Fresno +6 and U53.5)
Indiana up to +29
ULM up to +9
Sam Houston St down to +20 (SHS +24 buy 1/2)
Those are the biggest changes I noticed from yesterday. I have BM, BOL, Circa and Heritage and definitely some differences up to 2 points. pays to have outs and shop - guess Walters has that in his book. Pretty lucky most of my early bets the line has moved in my favor. Hopefully it bodes well. As I said before a few clunckers - still mad I bought 1 point on Wyoming +14 months ago thinking it was headed to 10. But the guys I tail have pretty much nailed the line movement from early Summer to now (Wyoming was my own call, which is typical). Getting interesting.
Florida down to +5 (Florida +8)
BGreen down to +10 (BG +12)
Fresno St down to +3.5 (Fresno +6 and U53.5)
Indiana up to +29
ULM up to +9
Sam Houston St down to +20 (SHS +24 buy 1/2)
Those are the biggest changes I noticed from yesterday. I have BM, BOL, Circa and Heritage and definitely some differences up to 2 points. pays to have outs and shop - guess Walters has that in his book. Pretty lucky most of my early bets the line has moved in my favor. Hopefully it bodes well. As I said before a few clunckers - still mad I bought 1 point on Wyoming +14 months ago thinking it was headed to 10. But the guys I tail have pretty much nailed the line movement from early Summer to now (Wyoming was my own call, which is typical). Getting interesting.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Don’t you think it more bout taking a number in what could be a ugly low scoring game? I doubt anyone was hitting umass thinking “fuck yes, umass!!”, my thinking woulda been more along the lines of, 20 points could easily win this game, getting double digits or even more than a td prob not the worst bet.
satnightfever05
Pretty much a regular
ULM hit +10 at MGM.. that one has become enticing with new running clock and Army changing O schemes a bit
UMASS down to +6
South Bama down to +6
UCF now -37
Wisky -28
smaller but WVU/PSU Total dropped from 53.5 to 52
and some look ahead GOY lines have dropped Texas to +6 at Bama in week 2
yeah, I forgot to add this - I saw it down to 6.5 this morning. IDK - didn't NM St put up like 50 on Liberty late last season - I know Liberty laid down due to Freeze leaving and I'm not sure on NM St returning production on offense. But UMass usually has a shit defense (as well as offense LOL), at least in my mind. But I saw someone I respect say this game has 13 3 written all over it. So you're likely right. I have no play on it as I like NM St but the line keeps moving to UMass. So I'll stay off unless someone I tail adds it late here.
shit I had Texas 6.5 but bought off thinking it might go to 7. I still saw 6.5 at BOL this morning - must have just moved. Have S Bama 7.5 so happy to see that move. Have Wiscy 23.5 and Bookie was right that would go to 28. Still don't get the UMass love. I know UCF opened 31.5 and I could have gotten around 33 but passed. looks like mistake. might try UCF 1H when it comes out.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Im probably not the right person to ask, im always little slow getting up to speed and it worse this year since my wife’s medical problems have kinda cut into some my free time. Im starting to listen, watch, read things but I’m a long way from the nmst and umass’s of the world, lol. All I could say is the guy umass brought in to coach last year has a strong defensive pedigree, the d def improved last year and I’d think that continues, I’m not sure bout nmst offense but I can’t imagine it that good or they wouldn’t have a 45 total against umass! I have no clue, just my assumption of why the line would get bet down from double digits. Somebody expecting a low scoring ugly game which would make sense to me. Going to under -7 seems awful strong!!
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Man NMSU is tempting at 6/6.5
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Gotta give ya a little pause that they were willing to bring it under -7?
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Nah, my plays are based on variances and I had this one marked as a play at anything under 7, so barring some crazy injury I don't know about, it will be submitted once I wrap up in a bit...
satnightfever05
Pretty much a regular
with you on SBA at 7.5.. UCF dipped last week to -34.5 and that was low enough for me to fire (even though yea, -33 was there for a while)... Really hope Texas goes back to 7.. with ya there.. agree on NMSU UMASS should be better, but thats still a bottom 3 team
carolinablue
College Football Guru
ULM can't stop the run but given Army's potential changes in offensive scheme along with the less than ideal QB situation, I am starting to lean a bit towards taking a shot with ULM, especially if I can get 11.5 at a decent price eventually, as the clock should be running constantly leading to significantly fewer possessions than the majority of games on the board, so am tempted to hold my nose and take the points, as this one should be ugly....No need for me to rush, but am mildly intrigued, but will see if it keeps going up...
Yeah i dont get umass move. Maybe 7 and above to take a # as Bank suggested. But now 6. NMS has a RSW of 6 so they're decent. And at home with umass traveling across country. But that's a strong move from 12 open to 6. So likely stay off. Good to see SBA finally move off that 7, 7.5 our way. Gl
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I took the 5.5 124 at BM as I think it goes back up to 7.5 by kickoff
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Note that you can now get 4.5 125…will probably announce a huge round of gambling suspensions tomorrow haha
yeah at this rate I'll get em on the ML LOL
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Army / ULM
ULM is gonna get their ass pounded like a cheap blow-up doll here ...........so would avoid jumping on that fat 10.
Army's explosive back (8.4/rush) is still hurt - leaving 2 massive FB's (250/260) to carry the load.
ULM D is the smallest in recent memory (if accurate).
>> DL fine/ little depth tho - LB are 200,200,205, 210 - sec 170,175,185,190. SO THE ARMY QB, at 215, is bigger than 8/11 on ULM D.
$$ I've got Army down as a possible (large) live/2H play here. ULM has some decent transfers on O, and might move the ball some / Army O might struggle early - but Army should be able to pull away late.
ULM is gonna get their ass pounded like a cheap blow-up doll here ...........so would avoid jumping on that fat 10.
Army's explosive back (8.4/rush) is still hurt - leaving 2 massive FB's (250/260) to carry the load.
ULM D is the smallest in recent memory (if accurate).
>> DL fine/ little depth tho - LB are 200,200,205, 210 - sec 170,175,185,190. SO THE ARMY QB, at 215, is bigger than 8/11 on ULM D.
$$ I've got Army down as a possible (large) live/2H play here. ULM has some decent transfers on O, and might move the ball some / Army O might struggle early - but Army should be able to pull away late.
satnightfever05
Pretty much a regular
To that end- ULM was up LY on Army 17-14 at half. And Army ended up winning by 24…
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Back up to 6.5 110 so I feel better now haha
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Total in the Navy game now down a couple points to 48.5...haven't looked into injuries, but weather seems fine with no rain or wind issues...
carolinablue
College Football Guru
NMSU back to 6.5 115 at BOL, up from 5.5 110 previously (was lower than that at BM)
carolinablue
College Football Guru
NMSU -7
UTSA -2.5 wow
UTSA -2.5 wow
played NMSU at 6.5.
satnightfever05
Pretty much a regular
saw utep moved to -1.5 too
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I took the 5.5 124…went to 4.5 125 after…humility is a good thing haha
Yeah never saw those. Saw 6. But hopefully 6.5 gets it done. So many good cappers on it, some at more than 7. Worth 1u risk.
