Question concerning Ohio State at USC

[RetroVK]

I have been taking a long look at this game, since it is one of the two or three best regular season games this season.

I have come to a pretty clear decision with the available information at hand now as to what I am going to play in the game. Of course , there is a long time between now and the Game.

The game is currently lined as a GOY at a few places.

Where does this line move ?

If you like USC , do you bet now or wait ?
If you like Ohio State , do you bet now or wait ?

 

[E.T.G.]

I think the line comes down in USC favor

 

[Blue_Chip]

Too much will be made of the USC vs UVA game opening weekend. If USC wins a semi close one while Ohio St wins big in their first two, then I think we see the public on Ohio St. If USC blows out UVA, then regardless of what Ohio St does in getting to 2-0, the money will come in on USC. I will likely stay away from this game unless there is a dramatic move in the line that I can fade.

 

[hile75]

Won't touch it till closer to game time..never know whos gonna blow out a knee or something stupid

 

[RJ Esq]

If all variables are taken out, bet tOSU now and wait for USC.

It might get back to USC -3 but it isn't going lower than that. It also might get to tOSU +6 or maybe even +7. But it ain't going higher than that.

 

[horses]

assuming the number is still at 5' and assuming you're considering Oh St, you may want to lock in this number now, because I think the spread will be lower game week. One case to make for waiting for a 1/2 point move is that getting 6 would be a lot better than settling for 5 would be worse.

If you like USC...definitely wait.

 

[ISU74]

I see a USC stomping of UVA, then they have a bye. (A week 2 bye seems a little odd). I'm hoping for public $ on SC so I can get a better # on tOSU. I believe they have a chance in LA.

 

[Croc69wheat]

im gonna wait....see what kind of line pops up a little closer to game time

 

[frankiegotti]

I like USC in this position even though I'm a bit of a tOSU homer because Pete Carroll will have his boys ready to play. In the big games on large stages it seems as if Pete's boys are ready to go, when USC plays conference perennial weak powers, they kind of lolly gag through the performances. I am looking for USC at -3.

I think it would be wise to bet against both teams in weeks leading up to this game because i don't think either coach wants to tip there hand into there playbook or what new and exciting changes in personnel and how they are going to effect plays. I think both teams will remain very conservative in play calling in weaks leading up the "the game."

 

[YesSir]

I think that if you bet O State and it is still 5, then you bet it now.

With Ohio State's huge alumini, that line will drop IMO. As well as OSU travels too, many will be staying in Vegas. Not saying they will effect the line in a HUGE way, just do not think it will pass 5.

 

[Mags]

Have to bet USC regardless of the line right? I mean, when was the last time that OSU beat a Top 5 team in a real conference :36_11_6:!

 

[aplous]

Have to bet USC regardless of the line right? I mean, when was the last time that OSU beat a Top 5 team in a real conference :36_11_6:!

Didnt they beat VY down in Austin?

 

[RetroVK]

Have to bet USC regardless of the line right? I mean, when was the last time that OSU beat a Top 5 team in a real conference :36_11_6:!

Show me the last regular season game where usc beat a top 5 opponent. I went as far back as 2002. Other than bowl games , they havent done it in or out of conference once. Ohio state is 2-2 over the same span. This pete carroll and usc love and jim tressel and ohio state hate is somewhat of a joke , i think. The idea that Tressel doesn't win a big game is a joke. USC/carroll was preseason #1 last year and ohiost/tressel were considered to be in a rebuilding year last year in the preseason. USC choked and ohio st went to the title game. And yet for going way beyond all expectations for the season, ohio st gets slammed for getting whacked in the title game while carrol gets a ton of love when he loses as a 41.5 point favorite at home. I don't get it. By what measure is carroll and usc more clutch than ohio st and tressel ??

Tressels teams consistently overachieve while Carrols consistently underachieve. 18-18 ats in the regular season the last three years for carroll, 24-10 ats in the regular season for tressel.

For all the bigten hate , it is on par with the pac10 for the most part.

ohio st returns 19 guys from a team that went to the title game last year. These are all highly recruited players too. usc returns just 4 on offense and they are going to be ready after one full game together to score on ohio st ??? score enough to cover 4-6 points ? Is there a major conference school with less starting experience at the offensive line position that USC ? ohio state was number 1 scoring defense , #1 passing defense and #3 ranked rushing defense. Now some of those numbers were arrived at because of their easy schedule at the start of the year but 9 returning starters from that unit against an offense returning 4 just seems like a tough spot to lay points imo.

I will spill my true feelings about this game. I not only like Ohio State to cover the spread here , I like them to win the game outright.

 

[Blue_Chip]

I will spill my true feelings about this game. I not only like Ohio State to cover the spread here , I like them to win the game outright.

I thought I was going to have to pay to hear these thoughts.

 

[ISU74]

I really think USC dominates UVA in week one. The trojan D should really limit the scoring opportunities for UVA and USC has too much speed on offense for the UVA D.

I will wait to see if this happens and hopefully it will push up the # for the tOSU game.

 

[SHSUHorn]

Didnt they beat VY down in Austin?

VY only lost 2 out of 32 games he started. Once as a freshman vs WSU in the Holiday Bowl where hedidn't play the second half and vs OU his sophmore year.

tOSU did beat Texas in Austin with Mccoy. Texas was #2 at the time.

 

[Mags]

I just think that it's hilarious, all the OSU love around here. Don't get me wrong, I think the site kicks ass (I am not a member anywhere else) and I have nothing but all the respect in the world for Tressel. Agree 100% with Carroll teams under-achieving, essentially posted the reply to do what it did = get a rise out of the OSU lovers. All this being said, and being a Miami fan since I remember watching football, anyone that thinks there is a conference that is in the same league as the SEC hasn't been watching the same college football that I have. Big games, enough said. And yes, I am still sore about OSU paying off the ref's in the Natl Champ Game vs Miami :smiley_acbe:.

 

[O-State]

--My position is that if any year OSU had a chance of winning in the coliseum it is this year. Not necessarily because of OSU's great ability, because I don't think OSU team is the best, but because I think USC is down in comparison to their recent run.

Last year was first time where SC was just "getting by", where all those great departures that were in on that run finally had some impact.

---IMO the biggest matchup problem for OSU is dominant Oline because the DT's where weak last year. SC, and this is more of a feeling because history has proven that their new starters step right in and don't miss a beat; but I am unsure of their OL and DL. I am going off of a vibe of slight decline play in SC's play over the last two years since the Texas loss and the fact that the line play will be suspect and that their passing offense has not looked explosive in the least.

The lb and secondary core for SC BEST EVER this year I agree. Ability with a long layoff and full concentration to DOMINANT any opponent is masterful. IF SC is tuned in, like in all these bowl games you think they are an unstoppable machine. That is why the media is boasting their praises the decisive nature of their big bowl games.


----OSU will win if they can run. How can I be confident in that??? USC CONSISTENTLY has shut down the running games of predominant run oriented teams.

I don't know, the only thing I'm most sure of is that these are not the best OSU or USC teams we have seen in a while. I don't think either would go through the SEC without 2 or more losses.

---The one thing about OSU I will say is this. I think they are really good on both sides of the ball. They are not dominant by any means though on offense or defense. Certain positions such as WR and DT are nothing more than average, but there is not any glaring weakness, all units are solid. In 05 the defense was dominant but no qb play. In 06 dominant offense lack of secondary play. Last year not dominant anywhere but the weakness was experience. That is the only difference from last to this year for OSU, with the other being offensive identity.

#1 thing I believe OSU will have going for them this year is that coming in they are molding around Beanie. Last year we did not. Jim was still finding Beanie as his first year in predominant role and were coming off of a spread pass happy Troy Smith run.

My concern with this style is that that we need a DOMINANT defense. They will be awfully good, I just don't know if they have grown up enough, because otherwise the qb and wr's are possession and they fit perfectly in the gamepland and Jim calls and micromanages Tresselball with this identity.

 

[YesSir]

And yes, I am still sore about OSU paying off the ref's in the Natl Champ Game vs Miami

About tired of that one...the only reason it went to that (and yes it was PI) was because a bad call....

and I am not a OSU homer

 

[G-Man]

Buy the number to 7 and bet it big...

 

[hoopsstar22]

I'll definitely be taking the points in this one, and then spreading a good deal over the reverse line and ML.

Last year was the same old trick and pony about how Washington was going to destroy the Buckeyes. How they were going to crush them. How they were going to put a Pac-10 ass whoppin down.

So many are looking at this game saying "well they've lost the last 2 national championship games, so they can't win this one either." A horrible game plan cost them the game against Florida. They had no business being in the game last season after losing to Illinois. They were totally in a rebuilding year, however, everything managed to fall their way, and they surprisingly made it back to the game. Yes they got their shit pushed in by LSU, but that's just because they were the better team.

So go ahead and bet USC all you want, OSU simply can't win.

 

[HUNT]

should be a great game...gotta think sanchez will struggle with that great d...but carrol after a bye and at home is money...will be very interesting. I also notice in last few years it has taken USC a game or two to get that offense going.

 

[RetroVK]

should be a great game...gotta think sanchez will struggle with that great d...but carrol after a bye and at home is money...will be very interesting. I also notice in last few years it has taken USC a game or two to get that offense going.

Yeah ... when its other teams it is a rebuilding situation and/or a situation where the team needs games to get into top form. Seems like USC is going to get overbet again this year.

 

[macdamn]

I can see the arguments on both sides of this game. On the one hand, based on what I saw from Dirty Sanchez last year, I'm not sure if he's the next great USC QB. Is he the Kyle Wright of USC? Time will tell. Probably their offense will have a hard time scoring on Ohio St.
On the other hand, USC's defense is awesome too. IMO this is the best defense Carroll has ever had at USC. Points are going to be hard to come by in this game.
I have no idea where the total will be. Maybe in the 40-45 range? Without even knowing what the number is, I think the best bet on this game will be the under.

 

[RetroVK]

I can see the arguments on both sides of this game. On the one hand, based on what I saw from Dirty Sanchez last year, I'm not sure if he's the next great USC QB. Is he the Kyle Wright of USC? Time will tell. Probably their offense will have a hard time scoring on Ohio St.
On the other hand, USC's defense is awesome too. IMO this is the best defense Carroll has ever had at USC. Points are going to be hard to come by in this game.
I have no idea where the total will be. Maybe in the 40-45 range? Without even knowing what the number is, I think the best bet on this game will be the under.

Could very well be the case

 

[sportjunky]

the only question mark about sc's D is at DT. Every other unit is stacked but losing sed ellis will hurt them even if Averill Spicer was All World comin out of highschool. im sure the guy is legit but it'll be a step down from ellis no matter how hard spicers roids up during the offseason.

 

[O-State]

As I think about this, I don't think USC this year is nearly as good as LSU was last year. Not as physical in the trenches. OSU got housed, but what I saw was a team that really put the effort in and started to understand what it takes to win big big games vs. equal superior competition. Saw how important the details were and how a few plays gone different would of made a big impact. OSU wasn't tested inconference and what made the 02 team great was all the 01 battles and tough tough losses.

That LSU loss is the kind that makes a team come together.

---conceptually. I know score dictated passing, but we saw receivers couldn't get open line couldn't protect, Boeckman move around and work out of that shotgun scenario. bottom line -- Robiskie, Hartline are not spread the field guys, they are possession. Robiskie WORST open field runner in history of O-State. They work best off of playaction, intermediate, off of run orienation.

Remember, OSU was coming off of pass happy troy smith times and beanie was in first year last year.

last year:
First seven games: 17 carries per game, 91.7 yards per game, 5.4 yards per carry, 6 total TD
Last six games: 26 carries per game, 161.2 yards per game, 6.2 yards per carry, 9 total TD

---Ohio State is going to run Beanie. This game will determine his heisman fate. Wow, Beanie vs. Mauluga, Cushing, Maiva, Mays, Ellison. That's little Jim Brown against the biggest and baddest lb's and db's in college.

OL at USC probably will be about the same as LY. The receivers are all 5 stars but they haven't lived up to their billing. Since 05 with John David in at qb and no Jarrett or Williams at wr, IMO the explosiveness in the offense has not been there. The biggest reason may lie in the OL and no Bush, they were at 6.5ypc in 05, dropped to 4.0 in 06 and 5 LY.

Lose LT Baker, RT Radovich, and RG Rachal. Butch Lewis should fill in nicely at LT got playing time LY 1st team Frosh AA. Byers and O'dowd are great. Don't know much about Heberer or Charles Brown who Steele has manning down the right side.

These USC receivers Hazelton, Turner, Ausberry are all kind of the same mold but the explosive plays as far as yards after catch and production in general is not there like Jarrett or Williams. Ronald Johnson needs more touches in that offense.

----DT, they'll start Spicer who even though five star is now a junior and has not produced even as a backup as much as his talent says he should. Just 9 tackles LY in 12 games. Other DT Fili Moala is a senior and was a HM Pac 10 last year. That is a bad thing IMO, to be a veteran player starting as a USC DT, in this era of Pete HM P10 is like a dropoff. Bet past 4 years DT's have been 1st or 2nd team.

 

[G-Man]

Have to bet USC regardless of the line right? I mean, when was the last time that OSU beat a Top 5 team in a real conference :36_11_6:!

Thats the key word here Mags. (Beat) They dont have to win to cover? But they COULD maybe???
:shake: