Bottomore @Shitsburgh
I never trust Baltimore @Pitt, even though they've won there regularly enough with Flukeo (3-3 SU after starting 0-3). I get a whiff a 2005 repeat SB effort & revenge for the Hags, which naturally requires the Stealers to win this. I'll be looking for them in some form live. As for the spread, the following surely can't be ignored
Baltimore's efforts vs. Pitt with Flukeo at the helm...
(FT scores/HT scores/1st score - Home score 1st - Black font = @Pittsburgh - starts with '08 games)
23-20 .... _3-13 .... Home FG
_9-13 .... _6-3_ .... Home FG
23-14 .... 13-7_ .... Home FG (Playoff game)
20-17 .... 14-7_ .... Home TD
23-20 .... 20-10 .... Home FG
14-17 .... _7-10 .... Home TD
10-13 .... _7-0_ .... Home TD
31-24 .... _7-21 .... Home TD (Playoff game)
35-7_ .... 21-7_ .... Home TD
20-23 .... _6-9_ .... Away FG
10-13 .... _7-10 .... Home TD
20-23 .... 13-6_ .... Away FG
19-16 .... 10-6_ .... Home TD
22-20 .... 10-0_ .... Home TD
26-6_ .... 10-3_ .... Home TD
43-23 .... 22-10 .... Away TD
Observations:
- These fuckers love their close games: 11 of 16 games decided by 4 pts or less and only 3 by double-digits (funnily, 2 of those came this season).
- Balty is only 7-5 SU after leading at the half, whereas Pitt is a perfect 7-0 SU after leading at the half.
- The home team just loves busting up a 0-0 scoreline: only 3 visitors have been first to trouble the scorers in 16 games.
- Games in Pitt avg. 41.7 pts vs. a 34.1 pts avg. for games in Baltimore.
- Balty loves leading at the half: a perfect 7 for 7 @home, and 5 of 9 in Pitt.
- Where Balty has won 5 of 9 1st halves played @Pitt (avg 10.0 for vs. 10.5 ag), it's only managed to win 2 of 9 2nd halves (avg. 8.5 for vs. 12.7 ag).
- Pitt has not lost any (1st or 2nd) half @home when managing to total at least 10 pts in said half (9 for 9). By com[parison Balty has gone 6 for 10 in halves which they totaled at least 10 pts.
(And lastly, not represented above: these 2 teams love avoiding low scoring 4th quarters, esp. for games in Pitt. Only 3 of 16 have totaled less than 9 pts, and one of those 3 featured a 32-7 dead contest entering the last stanza.
Specifically for games @Pitt: where the fg avg. for games at this venue is 41.77, the avg. for the 4th quarter is 12.25. While that's 29.3%, not much above what statistically it should be, that includes the only game featuring scoreless 4Q between the 2 teams at either venue. Minus that anomalous affair, and that avg. climbs to 15.12, representing 34.1% of the now 44.12 pts avg. score).
purely based on these historical stats, the bets are
Balty +3.0 full game
Balty 1st half
Pitt 2nd half
4thQ Over
Home team to open the score w/a TD (hasn't opened w/a FG in games played this decade)
