Phoenix/Houston Total - 207

Trueblue

Trueblue

Pretty much a regular
I have a question for you guys. Why is the total so high for this game at 207? Take a look at the last 10 meetings between these two...

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td colspan="4" class="datahead">Recent Meetings</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2b" width="12%">Date</td> <td class="datahl2b">Home/Away</td> <td class="datahl2b">Line</td> <td class="datahl2b">O/U</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">3/12/07</td> <td class="datacell"> PHO 103 - HOU 82</td> <td class="datacell">PHO -6</td> <td class="datacell">U 206</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">1/17/07</td> <td class="datacell"> HOU 91 - PHO 100</td> <td class="datacell">PHO -5.5</td> <td class="datacell">U 200</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">11/29/06</td> <td class="datacell"> PHO 102 - HOU 91</td> <td class="datacell">PHO -7</td> <td class="datacell">U 196.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">2/27/06</td> <td class="datacell"> HOU 94 - PHO 111</td> <td class="datacell">PHO -2.0</td> <td class="datacell">O 201.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">2/16/06</td> <td class="datacell"> PHO 109 - HOU 75</td> <td class="datacell">PHO -4</td> <td class="datacell">U 204</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">11/23/05</td> <td class="datacell"> HOU 88 - PHO 100</td> <td class="datacell">PHO 1.0</td> <td class="datacell">P 188</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">4/9/05</td> <td class="datacell"> PHO 97 - HOU 98</td> <td class="datacell">HOU 6.0</td> <td class="datacell">U 213.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">4/3/05</td> <td class="datacell"> HOU 78 - PHO 91</td> <td class="datacell">PHO -3.0</td> <td class="datacell">U 210</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">3/11/05</td> <td class="datacell"> PHO 107 - HOU 127</td> <td class="datacell">HOU 4.5</td> <td class="datacell">O 214</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">1/5/05</td> <td class="datacell"> HOU 98 - PHO 108</td> <td class="datacell">PHO -4.0</td> <td class="datacell">O 204</td></tr></tbody></table>
Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.


It has only hit the over 207 points 1 out of the last 10 times. I understand that these are two playoff teams duking it out, but I'd lean more toward the defensive angle rather then a scorefest given those facts... Thoughts? I obviously am loving the under.
 
Also adding SA/MEM under 211.



<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2">1/26/07</td> <td class="datacell"> SA 112 - MEM 96</td> <td class="datacell">SA -14</td> <td class="datacell">U 210.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">1/7/07</td> <td class="datacell"> MEM 96 - SA 110</td> <td class="datacell">SA -7.5</td> <td class="datacell">U 213.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">12/20/06</td> <td class="datacell"> SA 105 - MEM 98</td> <td class="datacell">MEM 12.5</td> <td class="datacell">O 185</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">4/9/06</td> <td class="datacell"> SA 83 - MEM 81</td> <td class="datacell">MEM 6.0</td> <td class="datacell">U 173.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">2/24/06</td> <td class="datacell"> MEM 80 - SA 83</td> <td class="datacell">MEM 4.5</td> <td class="datacell">U 171.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">1/16/06</td> <td class="datacell"> MEM 83 - SA 93</td> <td class="datacell">SA 1.0</td> <td class="datacell">O 170</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">1/14/06</td> <td class="datacell"> SA 80 - MEM 79</td> <td class="datacell">MEM 8.0</td> <td class="datacell">U 173</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">4/18/05</td> <td class="datacell"> MEM 94 - SA 92</td> <td class="datacell">MEM 3.5</td> <td class="datacell">O 180.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">4/16/05</td> <td class="datacell"> SA 97 - MEM 75</td> <td class="datacell">SA -9.5</td> <td class="datacell">U 180.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">2/26/05</td> <td class="datacell"> SA 82 - MEM 84</td> <td class="datacell">MEM 13.0</td> <td class="datacell">U 177</td></tr></tbody></table>

Pretty damn obvious why... plus SA will be resting players. They can beat this team with their bench. Opinions welcome..
 
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/4717573.html

Rockets to have diet of pick-and-rolls
Suns, Jazz will provide a glimpse of what awaits in first round of playoffs

By MICHAEL MURPHY
Copyright 2007 Houston Chronicle

Rafer Alston plopped into his seat in the Rockets' locker room Saturday night, thoroughly exhausted.

Alston was happy, considering a 123-112 victory over the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets put the Rockets on the verge of clinching home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Alston's offensive contributions — 21 points and 13 assists — were taxing enough, but he also spent much of the night trying to keep up with Hornets point guard Chris Paul, who riddled the Rockets for 20 points and 15 assists.

Paul worked the Hornets' pick-and-roll beautifully, with power forward David West (33 points on 14-of-19 shooting), providing a glimpse of things to come for the Rockets as they wind down the regular season.

"Man, we have to do a better job with our pick-and-roll coverage," said Alston, shaking his head. "From here on out, that's all we're going to see."

That stretch continues tonight, when the Phoenix Suns, who are all about the pick-and-roll, invade Toyota Center.

With point guard Steve Nash and talented players like Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion and Leandro Barbosa, the Suns (61-19) not only have one of the league's most devastating fast breaks but one of the best pick-and-roll attacks. It's one the Rockets have not come close to stopping in three previous games this season against the Suns, all losses.

Do it or die
As usual, Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy boiled the pick-and-roll issue down to the most basic level.

"I think it's either we're going to defend it better and win or we're not going to defend it better and lose," he said. "It's really pretty simple. It's not that complicated. And if we are always talking about how hard it is versus how we're going to get it done, then we'll be sitting at home lamenting our fate."

After tonight's game, the Rockets (51-29) are off to Utah, where they will conclude the regular season against the Jazz, who have been picking-and-rolling since the John Stockton-Karl Malone days.

Then it's on to the playoffs, where the Rockets will play the new-generation Jazz, still one of the league's top pick-and-roll teams with point guard Deron Williams and power forward Carlos Boozer.

It's a gantlet of elite point guards who have Alston's head swirling.

"Yeah, it's Steve Nash (tonight), then Deron Williams, Deron Williams, Deron Williams, Deron Williams, Deron Williams," said Alston, laughing. "It (pick-and-roll defense) is something that we have to work on. It's been our Achilles' heel all season. We have to work on it, and we don't have much time, because after the next two games, here comes the war."

Fourth spot on line
But first, there's tonight's skirmish, which is important because the Rockets are looking to clinch the fourth-best record. And they're trying to do it against the Suns, a team that has beaten the Rockets seven straight times, scoring at least 100 points each time.

"The Suns are a team that we've been having trouble with all season long," said Tracy McGrady. "With their style of play, they're able to kind of take Yao (Ming) out of the game with their quickness and length.

"I think this is a big game for us when we're trying to clinch this home-court advantage, which is very important to us. We'll see what happens when the ball is tossed up (today). Hopefully, we'll be well-prepared and know the task at hand is very important."
 
I'm not sure I know what to make of all of this, but if both the Suns and the Rockets are TRYING, then I think the difference in your bet will be, as JVG said, we either defend the pick and roll better or don't.

The Suns, on the other/same hand...

Business as usual

Paul Coro
The Arizona Republic
Apr. 16, 2007 12:00 AM
HOUSTON - The Suns did not practice Sunday and got a lot accomplished.

The Suns clinched the West's No. 2 seed as they sat in a Houston sports bar Sunday afternoon watching Dallas beat San Antonio.

That win gives Phoenix home-court advantage in any playoff series except a conference final with Dallas. That includes an expected second-round series with the Spurs, who are 4-0 at home against the Suns the past two seasons.
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The Suns close the season with nothing on the line at Houston tonight and at home Tuesday against the Los Angeles Clippers. But after finding playoff momentum with a five-game winning streak, the Suns will not sit anyone out.

"I don't think it's going to change our mind-set or our approach in the last two games," coach Mike D'Antoni said. "We just started playing well. No use in getting away from that."

He said the eight-man rotation would play "normal minutes" unless the team got significantly behind. Houston can clinch home-court advantage in a first-round series against Utah with a win tonight.

"We're not going to play like the playoffs before the playoffs anyway," Suns forward Boris Diaw said. "Everything's different in the playoffs. We're just getting ready for it."

Beyond maintaining their rhythm, the Suns' motivation also is to set a franchise record for victories and an NBA mark for largest division lead. At 61-19, Phoenix could break the 62-win club record set in 1993 and 2005. The Suns have a 20 1/2-game Pacific Division lead on the Los Angeles Lakers, who won the division by a league-record 22 games in 1986.

Such icing would continue the good vibe emanating from an 8-1 stretch. Four of the wins have come by at least 17 points.

"That's encouraging because that's what you like to be doing going into the playoffs," Suns guard Raja Bell said. "We might have been pressing to find it as a team. As of late, we've been having a good time, sharing the ball and it's clicking for us."

Phoenix has held opponents to fewer than 100 points five times in six games for the first time since the end of a 15-game winning streak in December.

"It's exciting for us to pick it up," guard Steve Nash said. "Our energy is more consistent. Whether we're more disciplined or not, energy makes up for a lot of that."

Nobody is building toward the playoff stage like Nash, who has averaged 21.9 points and 10.7 assists in the past two postseasons. Nash has 32 assists with one turnover in the past two games. His 18 assists without a turnover Saturday were the most since Andre Miller did it with 19 assists on Feb. 13, 2002.

The Suns will finish the season having come closer than any team in history to shooting 50 percent from the field (49.4), 80 percent from the free-throw line (80.7) and 40 percent from three-point range (40.1). Their 49.4 percent shooting is still the best in the NBA since the 1996-97 Utah team shot 50.4 percent.
 
good info, thanks redbearde... You think this would entail a closer game with phoenix = more competitive = higher score? Or an increased defensive effort on the part of the Rockets = lower scoring overall... Hard to interpret. haha
 
exactly. hard to interpret. Last game was a trouncing by the Suns as I recall...not sure why the Rockets are favored so much...
 
I think the main determinant would be whether or not Houston gave up in the 4th quarter for the past how many games they lost to the suns. (Assuming they compete all 4Qs given that it's an important game)


Last four 4Q scores:

Houston Phoenix
16 29
16 21
24 32
22 11


Looks like Houston layed flat 3/4 lost games to Phoenix, but the one that they did stay competitive in 4th Q (24-32) still went under overall at 205..interesting.

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trueblue, when you have post mangled like that from cut/pasting....just turn off smilies, and it should fix 90-100% of the problem.
 
I think public perception is that Houston is a slow-it-down, defensive, UNDER team. While they do play great defense, they are also one of the leading 3pt teams in league. That Suns swiss-cheese defense should lead to many open looks for the Houston 3pt shooters, which means less pressure on Yao and T-Mac. Also, these shooters should have many open looks when Yao passes out of the double and triple teams.
 
Believe is spot on with how the Rockets play......and how people perceive them to play. Both teams put up over 120 last game, but the thing about this was watching both teams they were getting open looks. The Rockets achilles is the pick and roll D which is what the Suns run all day.......The Rockets should not have trouble at home scoring vs the Suns as well with Yao or with the amount of 3s we shoot. I hope this is a better analysis Showtime
 
Rockets and the OVER is my lean. I may take Rockets-6, OVR 207 Parlay.

Rockets have to win this game + huge revenge for being dominated all season. They have had time to prepare and would much rather call it a season tonight.
 
I see multiple topics in this thread. One issue is who wins, another is the total, and the last issue is will the Suns play for real. I am not sure about the first topic of who wins or the total. I am sure about the last topic. The Suns are actually playing to win tonight.
 
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