Odds tba
Phillies vs. Astros World Series Discussion Thread
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- Start date
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Will be on Astros -1.5 for a clip, little on -2.5
Think it's a 5 game series but a 6th wouldn't be alarming
If it's 7 games it would be incredible but it would be because of Houston underperforming as opposed to vice versa, likely the biggest mismatch on paper we've seen this century. I know it doesn't take rocket science to say a 1 seed vs a 6 seed is a mismatch, but this is a first I'm pretty sure.
Think it's a 5 game series but a 6th wouldn't be alarming
If it's 7 games it would be incredible but it would be because of Houston underperforming as opposed to vice versa, likely the biggest mismatch on paper we've seen this century. I know it doesn't take rocket science to say a 1 seed vs a 6 seed is a mismatch, but this is a first I'm pretty sure.
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
Hoping the bats cool off for Philly with this 5 day break. Altuve getting on base and actually hitting last game was a good sign, but again, hoping that 5 day break doesn't reset him...
Astros pitching and depth is nothing the Philly team has seen, but man they are hot!
Astros pitching and depth is nothing the Philly team has seen, but man they are hot!
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
I was listening to VSIN before and they were talking about some guy that bet 50 on the Astros beating the Phllies in the World Series preseason at 2500-1. This guy stands to win 125,000 and when they contacted him he said he isn't hedging. Really the Phillies should win just so this idiot walks away with nothing.
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
If the Astros can get to the Phillies bullpen they should win easily but Wheeler and Nola have the potential to dominate.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Thing is the Stros trot out Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Garcia, McCullers
Those are 5 starters that can dominate. Their staff is stupid.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not sure hedging would even enter my mind unless the Phillies got up by 2 games or the Astros faced elimination
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Ironically the first third of my life I was a diehard Phillies fan (free agency kinda ruined that) and to this day I can't stand the Astros organization.
I just see this as a complete mismatch unless we've reached a point that good hitting beats good pitching, and even then I'm not sure the Phils have the edge.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
I don’t think any of Astros pitchers are unhittable, they were very fortunate to face a very over rated Yankees team that can’t hit. Seattle pounded Justin
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
That was one game, the Astros have 3-4 elite starters and McCullers is pretty damn good as well.
Mariners touching up JV in one game doesn't change that...and speaking of that the M's have the second best starting rotation in MLB behind Houston.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
Astros are very very good but don’t count Philly out they are playing very well at the right time. The yanks were not a good team 2nd 1/2 of season and were lucky to get by a Cleveland that hit a little worse than they did. Astros will need to play their absolute best ball or Philly will get them
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I weigh virtually nothing into the two teams the Astros have faced in the playoffs. Please don't take it like those are my benchmarks, far from that. They beat the second best team in MLB (Seattle) pretty quickly.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Me lol. That's the only barometer I've got.
I'm sorry, I flat out disagree that your 4 NL teams are better than the M's. Who declared that? You.
And I'd say you are incorrect.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Ya, me. 2nd best rotation in baseball.
GL cash, not real interested in what isn't there. I have my wagers in for the series and will be against Nola in g1 unless the Astros throw their 6th best starter out there.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
See even Mattress Mack agrees!
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yes, 2nd best staff = 2nd best team
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Just a couple of fwiw stats:
Since MLB expanded to 30 teams, no 2 teams from the same division have won the WS back-to-back. If Philly were to win it this year, that streak would be broken given Atlanta won it last year. The last time this double was managed was way back in the 1983-84 seasons (Baltimore '83-Detroit '84 were both in the then AL East).
Funnily enough, Baltimore's 1983 WS win ended the only 4 WS losing streak the AL has ever registered. The AL has lost the last 3 WS headed into Friday's G1.
The AL is 4-1 all-time off 3 straight WS losses (the NL is 9-9 all-time off 3 WS losses, just for context).
Since MLB expanded to 30 teams, no 2 teams from the same division have won the WS back-to-back. If Philly were to win it this year, that streak would be broken given Atlanta won it last year. The last time this double was managed was way back in the 1983-84 seasons (Baltimore '83-Detroit '84 were both in the then AL East).
Funnily enough, Baltimore's 1983 WS win ended the only 4 WS losing streak the AL has ever registered. The AL has lost the last 3 WS headed into Friday's G1.
The AL is 4-1 all-time off 3 straight WS losses (the NL is 9-9 all-time off 3 WS losses, just for context).
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Maybe next year. They just ran into a team
That owns them and had all the experience. They might have had the staff but too many young kids to take them too serious this year. As I said bout seattle all season they were a year away but I’ll def be on seattle futures for next season. They coming, those young studs in the staff will be more primed and ready to pitch 200 innings next year. They could beat out Stros in the west.
BringInTheLefty
Pretty much a regular
Kyle Schwarber has recorded an RBI in 4 of the Phillies' last 5 games
Alex Bregman has recorded at least 1 RBI in 3 of the Astros' last 4 games at Minute Maid Park
Aaron Nola has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in each of his last 7 appearances
Alex Bregman has recorded at least 1 RBI in 3 of the Astros' last 4 games at Minute Maid Park
Aaron Nola has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in each of his last 7 appearances
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Can’t bekueve how cheap he was for over 5.5 or 16.5 outs. No chance he doesn’t pitch 6+ innings imo.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
that's just fucking rude
BringInTheLefty
Pretty much a regular
7 of the Phillies' last 8 home games have gone OVER the total runs line
Alex Bregman has recorded at least 1 single in each of the Astros last 4 road games
Alex Bregman has recorded at least 1 single in each of the Astros last 4 road games
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Phillies mashing at home these playoffs!!
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
That guy who refused to hedge, obviously massively undersold the Dusty Baker factor.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I was just rambling in my thread about how poorly I think he has handled his staff. For my money Javier is at least as talented as JV and Valdez, why in gods name would he pitch McCullers ahead of him and look how he had used him all month. He has basically had to wait 10 days between every time he has pitched. There no way he isn’t their 3rd best starter. Now he on super long rest again. Normally I’d be all about his k prop but I can’t imagine he goes real deep havinv these long layoffs and who knows how sharp he will be?
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
The pool of historical WS stats I pay real attention to start with the 1985 season, because that's when the two championship rounds leading into the WS became best-of-7 series. The only WS (& season) since then I consider irrelevant statistically speaking is 2020, given the covid restrictions imposed upon it, making it basically non-comparable to every other season since (& incl) 1985. That makes for a stat pool of 35 WS that the following data is pulled from.
Of those 35 WS, only 4 have gone into a game 5 without any previous individual game having totaled less than 6 runs. The following percentages represent the rate at which each game has over this period of time been the game to be the first of the WS to total 6 runs or less in a given WS...
G1 - 28.57%
G2 - 22.86%
G3 - 22.86%
G4 - 14.28%
G5 - 5.71%
G6 - 2.86%
G7 - 2.86%
Overwhelmingly the first such low/er scoring game has already occurred within one of the first 3 games played, nearly 75% of the overall pool. And in the pool of WS in which it hasn't occurred after three games (as is the case in this 2022 WS), 55.55% of the time it's then occurred in G4 (and then 22.22% in G5 if not G4). So historically speaking, the historical data screams the fact that we (here go the dreaded words) are due a 6 runs or less game before this series heads back to Houston. I should point out that no WS since (& incl) 1985 has failed to register at least 1 game totaling 6 runs or less (that includes 8 WS that featured the minimum amount of games AND includes the covid-affected WS whose stats I've otherwise excluded from consideration).
I think this is a relevant angle for g$ given the pitching match-up seems to be pretty solid, and the fact it's an unofficial elimination game for Houston (going down 3-1 is almost always a death knell in the WS), which means all their best arms must surely be on deck for use in this game if it's kept close beyond the opening stanza.
In short, we're on an Under watch re these next two games. I personally think it'll be a split, 1 Over will pay out as will 1 Under, it's just a matter of what combo.
Of those 35 WS, only 4 have gone into a game 5 without any previous individual game having totaled less than 6 runs. The following percentages represent the rate at which each game has over this period of time been the game to be the first of the WS to total 6 runs or less in a given WS...
G1 - 28.57%
G2 - 22.86%
G3 - 22.86%
G4 - 14.28%
G5 - 5.71%
G6 - 2.86%
G7 - 2.86%
Overwhelmingly the first such low/er scoring game has already occurred within one of the first 3 games played, nearly 75% of the overall pool. And in the pool of WS in which it hasn't occurred after three games (as is the case in this 2022 WS), 55.55% of the time it's then occurred in G4 (and then 22.22% in G5 if not G4). So historically speaking, the historical data screams the fact that we (here go the dreaded words) are due a 6 runs or less game before this series heads back to Houston. I should point out that no WS since (& incl) 1985 has failed to register at least 1 game totaling 6 runs or less (that includes 8 WS that featured the minimum amount of games AND includes the covid-affected WS whose stats I've otherwise excluded from consideration).
I think this is a relevant angle for g$ given the pitching match-up seems to be pretty solid, and the fact it's an unofficial elimination game for Houston (going down 3-1 is almost always a death knell in the WS), which means all their best arms must surely be on deck for use in this game if it's kept close beyond the opening stanza.
In short, we're on an Under watch re these next two games. I personally think it'll be a split, 1 Over will pay out as will 1 Under, it's just a matter of what combo.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
My only concern with the under tonight is Javier having pitched so little this month and not at all the last 10 days (freaking baffling to me), all playoffs I feel like Phillies have been so smart how they have varied their approaches against different pitchers, if Javier was on normal rest I wouldn’t think anything of it I’d say he goes 6+ innings fans at least 8 and only allows a run or 2. Obviously houston pen good enough to take care the rest, I’m just really concerned about how sharp Javier will be, his numbers on 6+ been perfectly good but until this month those were mostly all 6 days rest, not 9 or 10, I think that a significant difference. I dont expect he will be bad but also think it asking a lot to expect his best. He pitched in yanks series on similar rest and only allowed 1 hit thru 5.1 but he walked 3 and we know Yankees couldn’t hit a beach ball at the time. He has those same kinds control problems tonight I think Philly will run his pitch count up plus prob run into at least 1 after a free pass. Dusty has made it so hard for me to cap a pitcher I really like in this one, if I wasn’t sitting on this Phillies future he would be royally pissing me off!! Lol
On the other side I feel pretty strongly houston offense gonna be held in check, Nola dominated them toward end reg season and honestly while the numbers wernt very good in gm 1 he really didn’t pitch poorly, obviously not his best but take Tucker out the equation and he woulda had a excellent showing. The way Phillies hitters and pitchers have made fantastic adjustments these entire playoffs I fully expect Nola to be back on his game tonight. I think he goes 6+ and doesn’t give up more than 2. That leads to another awful mistake Dusty made last night, leaving McCullers in and allowing Philly to bust that game from 4-0 to 7-0 allowed Philly to pull back the pen studs. So now they totally set up for this to only be Nola, Alvarado, Dominguez to get the 27 outs! I don’t think Stros scoring more than 3 against that.
I’m def playin houston team total under 3.5, debating the Ff tt un 1.5. I want to play the u7.5 and Ff u 3.5 but Javier rust worries me. I don’t think im alone either cause his k prop being 5.5 and only -105 to over is nuts! If he on regular rest and dusty hasn’t pushed him into some dumb spot where he hasn’t been a focal point this would for sure be a juiced 6.5 at the minimum! I would unload on this number if it wasn’t for the 10 days off, i mean he fanned 6 or more in 14 of last 17, they were hanging 6.5 and 7.5 numbers for him down the stretch but thanks to dusty incompetence nobody really sure what to do w him?!!!!
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wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
Astros are done...this guy is a Houston icon, but damn he keeps losing. Last win was in 2017 on the Astros WS that I remember, maybe some smaller ones in between
www.marketwatch.com
World Series: ‘Mattress Mack’ seen swearing at Philly hecklers over Astros bets that could pay him $75 million
Caesars says whether or not it turns a fourth-quarter profit depends on if the Astros win and the casino operator has to pay him $30 million.
www.marketwatch.com
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Good points, the low total could always be G5 (and might not even figure for the first time, given Dusty is there to fuck up history, as usual).
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
For those interested, here are the run totals from all of Houston's WS home games since 2017:
8, 8, 25, 9, 15, 9, 8, 8, 9, 7, 11, 7
Under 6.5?
8, 8, 25, 9, 15, 9, 8, 8, 9, 7, 11, 7
Under 6.5?
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