PaintCrew Bowl Season

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PaintCrew

Has Nicer Hair Than Matt Haarms
Going against a general rule of thumb I have on playing bowl games this early especially these days with all the unknowns, opt outs, transfers, etc....

But.....

Putting an investment in now (can't believe I could've got the ML at +$$$) that I would be surprised if I couldn't buy back a chunk of it or all of it later on this month. There are still 2 giant unknowns at a minimum in #5 Karlaftis and #3 Bell (whom have already announced they aren't coming back) even playing in this game.

Vibes are great in West Lafayette in general and in the direction of the program (finally) but this game is a tall order and step up in class for this defense against an offense that Purdue really has only seen one offense better than this year.

I do admit I only have vibes/notes/insight into one side of this. If anyone has nuggets to share on vibes in Nashville please do. I'm banking on either way being able to play back on the other side if I need to.

Karlaftis is the big one to watch and I don't have a crystal ball but if I'm a top 3-5 draft pick I don't see what I'd have to prove or gain in this game. If big #5 is out (and I kind of think he will be) this defensive line takes a major major step back as he requires so much attention.

Bell is a little different. He easily could've sat out this year after the concussion but came back anyway. He's got a bit more to gain if he were to have a big showing on New Years Eve-Eve but we shall see. I do think Purdue's offense should be able to produce with or without as they are a bit more matchup proof now that O'Connell has hit a groove.

I'll post any nuggets or changes in thought process as we go along and know I'm unlikely to have this amount riding on game day but for now this is the investment....

5* Tennessee -3 EV
 
CPA-hole said:
Karlaftis and Bell both declared today.
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That's just based on Brohm's press conference yesterday where he announced they are for sure gone for 2022. Haven't declared out for the bowl game yet...Brohm was "hopeful" but as mentioned at least for GK i think it's quite a long shot.
 
cubsker said:
I took tenny +120 last night for the most I've ever had on a game. Figured no way I can't sell it back at a profit.
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Great get man. I can't believe I missed it and obviously i'm 100% on board. No chance this thing flips back the other way IMO (at least not by much).
 
1* Toledo -10.5 - Mainly a degen play. Obviously lots of variance with squads like this but other than shenanigans and unicorns and some hungover Rockets partying it's hard to see how MTSU hangs here. Again though....mainly action play.
 
Wyoming obviously hasn't gone past the mark much but they did put up 50 and 45 respectively on the 2 MAC squads they faced early in the year
 
2* Army -6.5 - Normal weeks I'd worry about losing value from openers to day of the game. Bowl games I view vastly differently with all the moving parts. Now would I like to be holding Army -3 or 3.5? Of course.
 
PaintCrew said:
2* Army -6.5 - Normal weeks I'd worry about losing value from openers to day of the game. Bowl games I view vastly differently with all the moving parts. Now would I like to be holding Army -3 or 3.5? Of course.
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I guess at least I would’ve lost regardless. Army had a shot at a cover though they didn’t deserve and got conservative on those 2 drives late in Mizzou territory. Just a miss though…mizzou backups held up fine and they brought run blitz wrinkles which blew 3 or 4 likely first down runs to the edge up. Congrats to mizzou backers

0-1 -2.2
 
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PaintCrew said:
I guess at least I would’ve lost regardless. Army had a shot at a cover though they didn’t deserve and got conservative on those 2 drives late in Mizzou territory. Just a miss though…mizzou backups held up fine and they brought run blitz wrinkles which blew 3 or 4 likely first down runs to the edge up. Congrats to mizzou backers

0-2 -2.2
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The SEC channel replayed the Mizzu-Florida game and the Mizzu D looked athletic and aggressive. I was shocked to see how poor their D run stats were. They did a great job vs Army’s run
 
Bowls 5-5 +0.9

2* North Texas O26 TT
1* North Texas ML +115
1* Miami/NT O55.5

Lean UCF in the other one.....Here's to guessing by the time it comes around I'll have a piece of it at +7 or better
 
Bowls 6-8 -2.3

Pending 12/30 5* Tenny -3 (I've also got Tenny ML closing out another 3 units worth of parlays FYI....still evaluating what to do with that game tomorrow as I think the true line should be closer to 7.5/8 at this point)

Everything I'm locked in on at this point. Will be more

12/29
2* Maryland -4
1* Oregon +7

12/30
5* Tenny -3 (Posted many moons ago)
2.5* ASU +6
1* Sparty -2.5

12/31
2.5* UM +7.5

1/1
2* Utah ML +165
1* Ark/PSU O48
 
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Bowls 8-9 +1.6

Back into the green temporarily at least

A lot yet to consider on what to do with the pending Tennessee investment. Line is close/r to where I was targeting to buy some back.

Rumors flying around about O’Connell being out with Covid but my main guy said very late last night that’s not true. Seems more likely that it’s actually a defensive starter (OC Brothers) who is out. I’ll advise when I can confirm anything.
 
I'm still leaning towards that AOC is playing but nothing confirmed yet. Regardless IF somehow he is out keep in mind Plummer has already found a home at Cal for next year and Purdue's backup option would either be Alaimo (who literally has never seen the field) or the UCLA transfer (Burton) who has only seen snaps here and there as a change of pace/wildcat QB. Burton I'd think would be the guy.

O'Connell is the key to everything here....with him and a bag of rag tags (even without Bell/Wright) Purdue probably gets north of 24 today but without him? Would be a long long day IMO.
 
How would you rate your squads pass d? Some teams are so tough to cap off numbers cause they face such a garbage group of passing teams and I havnt seen Purdue enough myself to say if they are really good against the pass or it just the fact they havnt seen many good pass attacks that blustering the numbers. Then the one good pass attack they face is freaking Ohio st, don’t wanna say they garbage just cause osu lit them up, osu can light up anyone! lol. There schedule really didht give much of anything for me to use for reference points, they missed psu which woulda helped a little,
 
Curius what paintcrew says but imo I feel like its a horrible matchup for purdues style of play on d...the man to man stuff is gonna leave guys on islands getting beat and field is gonna be stretched.....when ohio state stretched the field on purdue they could of put up 80.
 
EL CAPO said:
Curius what paintcrew says but imo I feel like its a horrible matchup for purdues style of play on d...the man to man stuff is gonna leave guys on islands getting beat and field is gonna be stretched.....when ohio state stretched the field on purdue they could of put up 80.
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I think so as well, licking my chops for some hooker and wr props!! Just trying to cross me t’s and whatnot. Figured we have someone who way more knowledgeable on Purdue than I am, mighg as well take advantage!! Lol
 
PaintCrew said:
O’Connell playing…rumors were in fact nonsense
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how do you feel about the wrs ya'll have playing? they hung a pretty big yardage total for a guy missing his top 2 guys, i know he should still be able to pass on vols but 313.5 without them? i suppose he has to throw for that cause they dont run at all.
 
2daBank said:
how do you feel about the wrs ya'll have playing? they hung a pretty big yardage total for a guy missing his top 2 guys, i know he should still be able to pass on vols but 313.5 without them? i suppose he has to throw for that cause they dont run at all.
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i have no time but i'd still hit that over if i had to. AOC will be chucking it all day and should have no problem getting to that total
 
2daBank said:
How would you rate your squads pass d? Some teams are so tough to cap off numbers cause they face such a garbage group of passing teams and I havnt seen Purdue enough myself to say if they are really good against the pass or it just the fact they havnt seen many good pass attacks that blustering the numbers. Then the one good pass attack they face is freaking Ohio st, don’t wanna say they garbage just cause osu lit them up, osu can light up anyone! lol. There schedule really didht give much of anything for me to use for reference points, they missed psu which woulda helped a little,
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I've got my biggest wager of the year on Tennessee....without big #5 on the line and our best CB I think we get torched....
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1476617060289503239

As if there was any doubt left. For me since I've got my $$ in so good this time and things over in hoops land have been going nicely i'm just letting it all ride. Might reevaluate at halftime pending how the game is going. If I was being more conservative and anyone out there did get Tenny -3 with me at 5 units or more i'd buy back half at Purdue +7.5. I do think Purdue scores a good bit today but I just don't see how a short handed Purdue D can keep Tenny under 40.

Good luck ya'll
 
PaintCrew said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1476617060289503239

As if there was any doubt left. For me since I've got my $$ in so good this time and things over in hoops land have been going nicely i'm just letting it all ride. Might reevaluate at halftime pending how the game is going. If I was being more conservative and anyone out there did get Tenny -3 with me at 5 units or more i'd buy back half at Purdue +7.5. I do think Purdue scores a good bit today but I just don't see how a short handed Purdue D can keep Tenny under 40.

Good luck ya'll
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What a wild and crazy game. Future bright in West Lafayette for once. O’Connell starts his career as a 8th string walk on and will end it with a heisman campaign.
 
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