lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
Overview:
After a disappointing 7-5 season in 2005, Michigan shocked everyone in 2006, becoming one of the nation's top teams and holding the #2 ranking for nearly half the season before falling to Ohio State in the season finale. There were some who believed they deserved a shot at the national title despite already playing OSU, but they ended up in the Rose Bowl - and got hammered by USC. They now return most of their offensive weapons from that group, and are expected to be a top 10 team once again.
Chad Henne is back at QB after a solid junior season, where he threw for 2508 yards, 22 TDs and 8 INTs. Henne was a freshman All-American in 2004, and is expected to break school passing records by season's end. 2nd team All-American RB Mike Hart returns after rushing for 1562 yards and 14 TDs, along with backups Brandon Minor and Kevin Grady. WR Mario Manningham is back after receiving for 703 yards and 9 TDs, earning 1st team All-Big 10 honors; Adrian Arrington also returns after receiving for 544 yards and 8 TDs. The OL returns 3 starters, including 1st team All-American LT Jake Long.
Only 1 guy is back on the DL in Terrance Taylor, who had 23 tackles and 1 sack; the group lost 2 All-Americans in DT Alan Branch and DE LaMarr Woodley. Shawn Crable is the only returning starter at LB, after recording 37 tackles and 4.5 sacks in his junior season. 2 starters are back in the secondary in CB Morgan Trent and SS Jamar Adams, who combined for 92 tackles and 2 INTs; 1st team All-American CB Leon Hall must be replaced.
My Take:
Michigan ended up being a great bet in 2006, as they were 5-0 ATS on the road and covered every spread below 3 TDs. They took some major hits on defense with the loss of 4 All-Americans, which could really be a problem if they're hoping to repeat the success of last year; they won't be sneaking up on anyone, and should get some serious respect from linesmakers. I'm having a tough time seeing them be as good ATS this time around.
On offense, they should be absolutely potent and really don't have any major holes to fill. Their only big loss was WR Steve Breaston, who was 2nd on the team in receiving yards but only had 2 TDs. Henne should have his best year yet and if Hart can stay healthy, he will probably top 1500 yards again; Manningham and Arrington will be one of the conference's top WR duos. My only question mark is in the OL, which may have lost a bit of its mojo after allowing 10 sacks in the final 2 games - are they really that great of a group? I think a team with a solid DL could actually cause problems for this offense, as USC and Iowa were able to do. If the OL shows they can provide protection against some of the best fronts they'll face, no one will be stopping this offense.
On defense, I see a significant drop off to say the least. All their best players are gone in the front seven, and neither Taylor or Crable has proven they are game-changers; everyone will have to grow up fast in order for them to be even close to as effective against the run. Their biggest weakness is in the secondary, which wasn't anything special last year and loses its best player in Hall. I think the pass D will be a problem, and I see teams really hurting them in that area.
Overall, I think this is the best team in the Big 10, but I'm not so sure they'll be an excellent bet again. They have home games early on against Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State that could be problems, as they'll be considerable favorites and still need time to get the defense together. I really don't see a lot of great spots for them, and unless they're scary good, they shouldn't top .500 ATS.
After a disappointing 7-5 season in 2005, Michigan shocked everyone in 2006, becoming one of the nation's top teams and holding the #2 ranking for nearly half the season before falling to Ohio State in the season finale. There were some who believed they deserved a shot at the national title despite already playing OSU, but they ended up in the Rose Bowl - and got hammered by USC. They now return most of their offensive weapons from that group, and are expected to be a top 10 team once again.
Chad Henne is back at QB after a solid junior season, where he threw for 2508 yards, 22 TDs and 8 INTs. Henne was a freshman All-American in 2004, and is expected to break school passing records by season's end. 2nd team All-American RB Mike Hart returns after rushing for 1562 yards and 14 TDs, along with backups Brandon Minor and Kevin Grady. WR Mario Manningham is back after receiving for 703 yards and 9 TDs, earning 1st team All-Big 10 honors; Adrian Arrington also returns after receiving for 544 yards and 8 TDs. The OL returns 3 starters, including 1st team All-American LT Jake Long.
Only 1 guy is back on the DL in Terrance Taylor, who had 23 tackles and 1 sack; the group lost 2 All-Americans in DT Alan Branch and DE LaMarr Woodley. Shawn Crable is the only returning starter at LB, after recording 37 tackles and 4.5 sacks in his junior season. 2 starters are back in the secondary in CB Morgan Trent and SS Jamar Adams, who combined for 92 tackles and 2 INTs; 1st team All-American CB Leon Hall must be replaced.
My Take:
Michigan ended up being a great bet in 2006, as they were 5-0 ATS on the road and covered every spread below 3 TDs. They took some major hits on defense with the loss of 4 All-Americans, which could really be a problem if they're hoping to repeat the success of last year; they won't be sneaking up on anyone, and should get some serious respect from linesmakers. I'm having a tough time seeing them be as good ATS this time around.
On offense, they should be absolutely potent and really don't have any major holes to fill. Their only big loss was WR Steve Breaston, who was 2nd on the team in receiving yards but only had 2 TDs. Henne should have his best year yet and if Hart can stay healthy, he will probably top 1500 yards again; Manningham and Arrington will be one of the conference's top WR duos. My only question mark is in the OL, which may have lost a bit of its mojo after allowing 10 sacks in the final 2 games - are they really that great of a group? I think a team with a solid DL could actually cause problems for this offense, as USC and Iowa were able to do. If the OL shows they can provide protection against some of the best fronts they'll face, no one will be stopping this offense.
On defense, I see a significant drop off to say the least. All their best players are gone in the front seven, and neither Taylor or Crable has proven they are game-changers; everyone will have to grow up fast in order for them to be even close to as effective against the run. Their biggest weakness is in the secondary, which wasn't anything special last year and loses its best player in Hall. I think the pass D will be a problem, and I see teams really hurting them in that area.
Overall, I think this is the best team in the Big 10, but I'm not so sure they'll be an excellent bet again. They have home games early on against Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State that could be problems, as they'll be considerable favorites and still need time to get the defense together. I really don't see a lot of great spots for them, and unless they're scary good, they shouldn't top .500 ATS.
