O-State Week 10

[O-State]

Was 5-3 Last week on Plays, 1-1 Strong Opinions, 3-0 TMO's. Hit Sooners, Mizzou, PSU, Bama, Indiana. Lost Ole Miss, LSU, Illinois and very dissapointed in my losses. I knew they were my weakest plays but understanding what constitutes a play continues to be a journey in my early capping years.

PLAYS

TT ML
I put some thoughts in TT-Texas thread as well. Basis of point is Texas DL is not going be a factor here, due to fact that Leach abandon's run and TT is not affected by it's absence. Also, TT great pass pro, and they get the ball off quick. So Texas DLine dominance in rush defense and getting too passer creating havic mitigated. Look at how important DLine was in Oklahoma, Missouri games. I know Ok State ran it which was why it was close I assume Texas got to the passer not sure. But TT passes it a ton better than Ok State. So what we get is TT receivers vs. Texas secondary. First time young pups won't have DLINE covering their experience up. Remember ppl a great dline is sooo helpful for secondary. Also, I think compared to past years, TT defense improved and rush offense improved. TT pass defense not a fluke LW, also held KSU to 183, SMU 213, only Nebraska and Eastern Washington over 300.
---Now with that said as far as why I like the matchup for TT, I am also considering grind for Texas. 4, 4 top 5 quality teams??? In a row. Come on who has done that before? They can't have the same effort they had vs. Oklahoma here. I don't like short changing Texas they deserve major respect but I don't think anybody can go through this grind. Now they travel on the road for the first time in the grind. And TT has been waiting for it look at Oklahoma at TT Saturday night football.

LOUISVILLE
More extended thoughts in Vegaskyle's thread. Basis is Ron English matches up perfectly with straight on Cuse attack. Much better team here who should have some revenge after last year and I think the line is short. This Syracuse club is still a lame duck team that is the worst in the Big East folks.

MISSISSIPPI
---I've been burnt on Ole Miss vs. Vandy, South Carolina, and Arkansas. They are definately better dogs and do find ways to lose these close games. But I still think they are a pretty good team. Ole Miss gave up lot of special teams, defensive touchdowns and those could happen for Auburn but if that's what I'm betting against I will because I think Mississippi is the better team. What I love is Ole Miss has really, really improved the rush defense the last two weeks only allowing 107 and 104 against two great rush teams, Bama and Arky. The weakness of Ole Miss defense is pass D and Auburn can't pass. Ole Miss stands a good chance to get 20 points here as they have every game this season against some great defensive teams, Vandy, UF, Carolina, Wake Forest, Alabama. Quit frankly I think Auburn defense is overrated a little bit they are being asked to be on the field alot and have gotten worn down this year. I rate Auburn pretty bad they will struggle to score and the game is at Ole Miss. Also, anybody think Auburn giving up last week after a bye was supposed to be their statement game how do they handle realization that they are going to a shitty bowl or no bowl.

MINNESOTA
I think even if Sutton and Bacher plays I consider this. I'm sold on Gophers despite the fact they continue to benefit from alot of turnovers. I thought last week was a trap at Purdue and they showed their mental perserverance. I now think the troublesome pass defense of Gophers from last year is not a concern anymore. I know the one game they really gave up a ton vs. Illinois most of it was in the 4th game in some weird sequences. I also think NW played more to their true self last week vs. Indiana. Can we cap turnovers here? I think we can. Minnesota has 20 takeaways and 10 TO's, NW 18 takeaways but 19 TO's. Minney Oline isn't great but Weber is so studly I trust him to move the ball. Minney defense is better than NW eye test says Minney is better. Surprised Indiana played Minney so close at home but Minney is at new confidence level now here, home game, and big revenge they dominated NW last year through 3 quarter on way to first win and pass defense let them down but I see that as a strength now.

OREGON STATE
Everybody has this as a play. Zona St. collapsing. Beavers coming off bye and I think they match up well rushing the ball and as well with their defensive ends on this bad pass protection unit of Erickson. Oregon State drastically improving. Still view them though as a mediocre team and don't see them play much but if Zona State is just garbage and giving up I say why not.

MISSOURI
I think Mizzou is one of the best teams in NCAA history at covering large spreads. If they are not out classed by talent it's consistent. Mizzou will run on Baylor and pass on Baylor. BIG pass edge Mizzou. Concern here is Baylor will get run yards and take some time off clock. I am not so sure though Mizzou can't do a decent job on them. Baylor only had 32 rush yards on Oklahoma State. Athletic, athletic linebackers are the key to defending this spread rush. Mizzou has them and you know what the rush offenses that kill Mizzou are the big hosses like Oklahoma and Texas not this lateral weak stuff.

WAKE FOREST
Senior laden team coming home off of two straight losses. Wake dominated rush battle last week 195-102 vs. Miami but only had 57 pass yards. See some comparision to Vandy game Duke played last week except I think Wake can run it better an throw it better. I am pretty confident Wake wins but 7 in this conference with Wake offense playing the way they have lately is the only hesitation. Lot of games similar this week where I think I see the winner but line is out of 3 range. Would buy this to 7


STRONG OPINIONS

KANSAS
Look at rush for Kansas in this one. Kansas dominated Colorado by over 60 yards rushing, Colorado dominated KSU over 100 yards. Kansas also fared much better in rush department vs. OU. TT Kansas again fared much better and won rushing battle whereas Kansas State lost. So I definitely see rush edge here Kansas. How much? By over 100 yards I think. Passing attack if you take away last week performance by Kansas and KSU the Jayhawks are averaging over 300's and KSU middle 200's. TT held Kansas State pass defense under 200 as well. Colorado also held down this KSU offense pretty well I think Kansas can. So Kansas should have run and pass advantage. Now you have better team at home pissed off after an embarassment.


SOUTH CAROLINA
Like Auburn I wonder when the linesmakers are going to catch up with Tennessee. Now Carolina certainly isn't Bama good and I worry about them scoring points against that secodary, but I see Carolina having more success than Tenny moving it. Actually major concern in this play is Berry and Morley picking off pick prone Carolina qb's. If that doesn't happen I think Carolina rolls. Tenny coming off an emotional game and Carolina coming off a bye another week of preparation for Spurrier. Carolina is clearly the better team.


TMO's

PITTSBURGH ---Does Stull play?
ILLINOIS
Unpopular pick here and believe me I see why ppl love Iowa. Picking Illinois is not safe. Iowa should run on them. But I stand by the notion that this Illinois team is bipolar and if they show up with energy and emotion they can be very good. Now Missouri, Penn State, you say, how could I be impressed with Illini??? I thought Juice was on his game for one, but defensively I think they can stop ppl if they play with that EMOTION, but statistically I am not backed up with facts. ULL, Southern Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin they looked flat. They won't be flat vs. Iowa Zook is on their ass big time they play really good coming off losses and I see big opportunity in pass game vs. Iowa. Wisconsin exposed that Iowa pass defense. Would love an Illini win so I can hammer Ohio State the following week and Iowa vs. Penn State.
CAL
----Maybe more balanced team at home.


TOTALS ---testing it out
VILLE/CUSE U
TENNY/CAROLINA U
CAL/OREGON U

 

[B.A.R.]

First.

 

[B.A.R.]

Glad to see this thread up. You do your homework and its a great read.

Your so right about these linesmakers not catching up with Tennessee yet. Cocks to the bank.

 

[RetroVK]

Awesome stuff.

I think a lot of vandy offensive problems stemmed from the team not liking the qb switch away from nickson and towards adams. They lose a lot of big rushing plays out of nickson and i think with adams in there the linebackers can focus more on their RB's and expend less tie concerned with qb scrambles and the like. Same with pass coverage ... less looking into the offensive backfield for the linebackers and safeties. It is killing the rush game production and i think it has hurt them from a leadership standpoint. Kind of a strange move imo from bobby johnson. Anways , i think that ahd a lot to do with dukes success last week defensively. Wake , for all of their offensive problems , have really been pretty effective at home where they average 334 yards a game against good defensive competition ( clemson olemiss and navy ). They scored on ole miss and moved the ball well vs clemson but bogged down a lot in the redzone. the navy game was an anamoly of sorts as they turned it over a ton of times. Duke cannot runt he ball and wake sports one of the best secondaries in football to take away lewis to riley connection. love your wake lean

likely on ville with you and have discussed that game ad nauseum already also on oregon state.


Just curious .... what does iowa have to do to prove it to you ? The iowa pass defense right now is right on par with penn state , so don't think they are exposed because it is a good defense. illinois rush defense is what we see get exposed here. Good health on that one. i can lose a iowa bet and feel good about betting it. can't imagine it the other way around.



All in all i love your card and love your thread.

good luck this week , buddy ,... lets pound the bookies.

 

[O-State]

VK believe me I'm not betting Illinois this week outside of a throwaway parlay but I wanted to get it down. There is not a lot fundamental reason to like them besides gut lol. The one matchup I like is the pass game for Illinois. Maybe this is more of an eye thing than stats but I've seen Iowa State and Wisky exploit some things.

There is every reason to bet Iowa. Iowa sure is fundamental and physical say like Minnesota and Wisconsin.

I'm asking myself right now what the hell I see in Illinois except that I do think they are a really solid club when emotionally charged but that statement has no merit from what has occured. Would not be shocked if Illinois gets handled.

Could probably put a few other TMO's on there as well like Georgia, Wisconsin, Arkansas. The Illinois selection is purely a feel thing I think they have a good shot.

EDIT: I should of listened to you on Illinois last week. I am sold on Iowa. They are a very solid club. I questioned weather LW was a fluke or not preseason and they have proven it was. But I still put Illinois in top 15 of games on board this week and want to track how my varying level of confidence plays do.

---- Wake is probably close as a play as any. Cannot see them losing. Definately see Duke having trouble scoring here but the goose egg vs. Maryland and outing vs. Miami FL not the Navy game is what concerns me. Another one where we have the better team at about a line of 7. I think Wake wins if this game is at Duke but not only are they at home now they will have energy they showed vs. Clemson after losing two in a row. Looked at the Under here as well.

 

[O-State]

Thanks for the words BAR. Interesting game in West Lafayette this week I'll tell ya, first thought Mich then Purdue it's a tossup I think. Both teams REALLY need this. The key will be can Michigan rush it Purdue has actually played farely well in that department at home. Outrushed Minney who would of thunk it.

Good Luck :shake:

VK

Let's Cash Baby :shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for the words BAR. Interesting game in West Lafayette this week I'll tell ya, first thought Mich then Purdue it's a tossup I think. Both teams REALLY need this. The key will be can Michigan rush it Purdue has actually played farely well in that department at home. Outrushed Minney who would of thunk it.

Good Luck :shake:

VK

Let's Cash Baby :shake:

Yeah, I habve no clue on that one. No Painter looks like. Purdue, imho is in worse postition that Michigan here though. Caoch Tiller's last go at it has been a disaster. I think Purdue could be a nice fade here the next few weeks. I doubt I touch this game though.

 

[pags11]

with you on Ole Miss and Oregon St...good stuff here o-state...GL this week...

 

[O-State]

the legendary pags.

If your on Ole Miss and Oregon State I sure feel alot better about those plays. Thanks and Good Luck this week :shake:

 

[O-State]

---Need someone to talk me off some of my strong opinions.

I'm seriously considering adding all of my strong opinions to plays. Right now I'm viewing them all pretty much the same. Trying to look at the other side here. Kansas dd might be a little high but I still like it, Baylor rush O, and then for me Wake and Carolina fit in the same boat, both home teams at around same number but I think better teams.

 

[HUNT]

awesome work bro..gl man.

 

[Dmoney416]

BOL this week O - great write-ups.

With you on two of your totals.

 

[O-State]

Thanks and Good Luck Hunt

:shake:

Dmoney, good health on Syracuse and good luck this week, let's see how I do in totals :shake:

 

[O-State]

ADDING: Missouri and Wake to plays