Just a reminder that I don't cap. As I posted awhile back, happened to watch BYU - Virginia game week before last. Virginia was the worst defensive team I think I've ever seen in all my years watching CF. Right now looks like ND TT will be around 35. If they don't throw the hook on it, this will be a max play for me. I usually lose these bets I think are clear as day but so be it if I do. I simply can't see anyway Virginia will stop ND's offense in this game. I know ND is down some this year as all the top teams are, but I think they are at least as good as BYU. And I think Virginia will score too so that will keep ND motivated to score.
Notre Dame TT Over - Max Play
- Thread starter lvmike32
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i forgot he left the byu game, shit i dunno.. that a really good point tho, def not as strong a play if he out. i tried reading some stuff, kinda sounded like they planned on him playing but the coach was being a vague asshole bout it as ncaa coaches typically are, outside targeting and playoff committee this has to be one the most annoying things about the sport.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I like that play. N Dame is definitely better than BYU and is averaging almost that many points against a tougher schedule than BYU has played and BYU put up 66. Some of that may be mitigated by the fact the Cavs were on the road at BYU and at home this week.
The only way I see N Dame not getting that number is if they come out flat. They might, but there is no reason for them to do so based on schedule. Virginia is ranked in the 100s in every important defensive category. Plus the game is at night
Looks like a good gamble to me. Only question is the QB who's still listed at questionable
The only way I see N Dame not getting that number is if they come out flat. They might, but there is no reason for them to do so based on schedule. Virginia is ranked in the 100s in every important defensive category. Plus the game is at night
Looks like a good gamble to me. Only question is the QB who's still listed at questionable
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I really thought ND would torch the Navy secondary last week as Navy also not good at getting pressure on the QB. Coan is very disappointing and immobile, appears to have pigeon shit on his helmet. I expected more pace and explosive plays in that game, and got a bad feeling when Navy grinded out an 11 or 12 play drive early eating up most of the 1q. ND numbers looked ok in that game, but they just didn't score like I thought they would. Austin is a fine receiver and certainly capable of having a big game. Hope you hit it.
Thanks for feedback guys. Appreciate it. Tim, I saw Navy against Tulsa and then Cincinnati recently and their D is playing very well right now. Again, it's just my eyeball test and I don't know any of the numbers, stats or rankings, but Navy's D looked 10 times better than Virginia's. I was simply stunned on how helpless Virginia D was against BYU. But like I said when I'm sure about a game, I usually lose it. LOL. But I'll pay to see it again - think ND can hit 50's if they are motivated to keep scoring. Will definitely keep my eye on status on Virginia QB. thanks again guys
Broken ribs, last I checked he was listed as 'questionable.' Virginia has been running the ball better, but it's still a pass-heavy offense. His previous leg injury had deterred him from running much until the G Tech game I think. If he plays, I guess he has another reason to stick to passing. Which stinks because he's an awesome runner. But he's also so much more accurate and steady as a thrower than he was last year.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
They are really bad, I played the byu game over cause I thought both offenses were really bad matchups for the d’s. Then In-game everytime they set total higher i kept saying wasnt high enough, lol. Crazy thing is they woulda put up more points if dude didnt get hurt. I was kinda surprised byu left their running back in there to continue just gashing uva even after game was put away. ND running game could most def do the same, as i said above I don’t like Irish qb as much as byu kid, and I’m just not sure I expect the same kind of game here. Certainly don’t mean Irish can’t score 35+ tho.
If ya think Uva defense is bad/enjoyed watching that, you should check out mizzou and Ku sometime, they both have equally horrific defenses! I remember watching Vols run for over 400 on Mizzou! And pretty much everyone scores 50 on ku. Arkansas state is right up there with the worst of them also.
Hey guys just saying UVA was in altitude that game, a lot of us saw that angle as a basis for fading Virginia in that game lol. But yes it‘s still a bad defense overall
Do you think UVA is more focused on winning their 2 ACC games after ND to win the Coastal or are they pumped to play ND at night on national TV and will that effect if Armstrong plays?
My class is about to start so i‘ll just post this link: Uva offering $20 off ND tix
I think it offers a pretty good barometer. They are really trying to pack the stadium for national tv
2daBank
Voice of Reason
it was def a bad spot for them but they have also given up 40 to gtech, 33 to ville (should been more if satterfield wasnt a nitwit), 59 to unc! 37 to wake.. 112th in nation allowing 34.6 a game and it only that low thanks to games against bill&mary, illni, and duke!! you get rid of those and they allowing well above 40 per contest!!
I'll have to think about it a little more with the Virginia QB probably out or at least severely limited. Obviously when you bet a TT that high you need the other team to score (quickly hopefully) to keep your team motivated to score. I'm still going to bet it, just might not be a max play. I'll have to monitor. As I said, don't know the ranks, numbers, etc. It's just my eyes. I've seen a lot of mismatches in my day watching CF and I honestly can't remember seeing a defense get stomped like BYU did to them. I was actually shocked watching it. If ND is "on", Kelly doesn't hold back, and things fall right I think they could cover this TT in the 1H. We'll see. Appreciate the info guys. thanks
2daBank
Voice of Reason
What the spread? Why not look at taking some Irish as well?
Didn't want the spread at all but didn't know the Virginia QB was hurt and possibly out. If he was playing healthy, could see a game where team with ball last wins. Bronco doesn't sound like he'll decide until game time. Still think I'll just look at TT. Hopefully the total and thus the TT comes down with the injury. Though likely offset in ND going to 7 or higher if that's the case.
very aware of Mizzou and Arky St being horrible as well. Looking at SCar and ULM TT this week as well. Both look like plays to me. thanks
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I’m with you, no way I would lay 5 against this uva team with him healthy, they never out of game. I just can’t imagine they risk him while they still have a chance to win acc. I mean yea this a big prime time game vs a top 10 team but their season can still be a success losing this game, if they put Armstrong out there and he gets hit again and done for year their season over. Not like he just sits in pocket and protects himself either! I gotta think he sits and if so I like Irish (can’t remember if I’ve ever bet on ND before, lol). If he plays then yea, I prefer team total.
can't believe a team that gives up 66 has a chance to win a P5 conference LOL. I played hoops but can't imagine a worse injury for a football player, especially running QB, than ribs. Gotta make him much less effective. I'm just going to see what his status is on game day. It'll be ND TT at some level. thanks for your thoughts - very helpful
Went ahead and played ND tt over 34.5 for max 5u. Also played S Carolina tt over 27.5 and ULM tt over 34.5 for 2u each. Betting vs shitty defenses of Mizzou Arky st and Virginia with what seem to me very favorable numbers. But as i said usually lose when i feel this good.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
those are bout the 3 worst defenses i have seen this year, kinda tough for me to play scary over a number they have hit only once all season, it was last week tho and tigers defense one the worst power 5 defenses i have ever seen!!! gl
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Ride or die, riding...
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Notre Dame football Game Today: Notre Dame at Virginia injury report, spread, over/under, schedule, live stream, TV channel
The Notre Dame football team hits the road in Week 11, traveling to Virginia to take on a Cavaliers team that could be without their starting quarterback.
My understanding is that Brennan is a game-time decision
Well that was predictable. Stupid - should have followed Tahoe (which I usually do) and played spread instead when Virginia QB was out. Watched 1H and would have hedged off even at 21-0 but this season I only have Westgate Superbook App and they don't have TT lines at halfs or Live. had to go out so didn't see 2H but when ND didn't try to score at end of 1H I knew Kelly would shut it down in 2H - because Virginia offense was inept. As we discussed in this thread. with TT you need other team to score. Actually thought Virginia's D looked "normal" - nothing like they did vs. BYU. They just can't tackle worth a darn.
Got lucky on SCar. Offset by Monroe - thought I saw they had 24 in middle of 3Q so not sure how you go scoreless vs horrible D at home for 20+ minutes.
Anyway, as I said I usually lose these plays I love. thanks again for advice.
Got lucky on SCar. Offset by Monroe - thought I saw they had 24 in middle of 3Q so not sure how you go scoreless vs horrible D at home for 20+ minutes.
Anyway, as I said I usually lose these plays I love. thanks again for advice.
Keep posting bro. You had very good reasons and that wasn't the fault of ND but the fault of VA like you alluded to.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
It happens man, as I had the game total and I also had ULM and still don't see how they pissed away that one in the 4th, but what can ya do. Good thing is there is plenty of money to be made in Week 12, and short memories are a thing of beauty!
