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ontime23
Guest
Lets see what this game has inside and get some winners.
12 Pounder
Pretty much a regular
Like the unders in both games tonight
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Ball St -9.5: No play yet. Once again, the only way I would play these two weeknight MAC games personally is with the home team, just like the Buffalo game on Tuesday. The first thing that needs to be established in this game, Ball St is currently involved in a beauty contest for the outside shot at a BCS game and they get this game on ESPN2. Also, similar to last night, the road team has a QB you can't have full confidence in on the road putting the ball in the air while the home team has a QB playing at a very high level. This is the first road game for NoIlly in nearly a month and Ball St has won every home game this year by double digits. NoIlly has a 1-dimensional offense. What happens if they fall down 10-14 points early? They are not going to run their way back into this game. NoIlly has ripped off 3 straight wins in MAC play but all 3 teams are no where near the top of the MAC (BGSU, Tol, MOH). I don't think I can overstate the importance of trying to win/stay competitive on the road with a QB who is green and not a good passer. If NIU can shorten this game and consistently run the ball for first downs and keep Ball St off the field, they got a shot at the cover but if I'm Ball St I trust my secondary and sell out to stop the run. If that happens then BallS runs away and covers
scraps@midnight
Pretty much a regular
ball or nothing for me. undefeated yes, but margin of victory sure stands out to me as well...34,12,15,22,21,31,17 and 22. not one loss under 12. that is against option, pro style, spread...big ten, service acdmy, mac...now we get them at home on national tv with the need to impress. i know n. ill has a very physical team and has some recent success but i think they may be walking in to a very bad situation here. if ball state gets any kind of a rhythm going on offense this may be a blowout quick. thats my initial take...
S
signalcaller
Guest
Did you sell yourself with that writeup ETG? Cause you def did to me. Stated every point for playing ball st and they all made sense
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
It's a great writeup but I guess, you need to figure out what you make Ball St, despite the ranking and record, vs Tenny and Minny on a neutral field...because the lost both of those games by four points on the road...
If you rate Ball St a 5 point or better fave vs those two squads, then I'd safely lay it....but NIU hasn't lost by more than four pts all year and have steadily improved, esp on defense, with more time under the new regime...but the competition has been bad so I'm curious to watch and see myself...
All that said, the spot is a very good one for Ball St before a brutal last two games vs the elite of the MAC.
If you rate Ball St a 5 point or better fave vs those two squads, then I'd safely lay it....but NIU hasn't lost by more than four pts all year and have steadily improved, esp on defense, with more time under the new regime...but the competition has been bad so I'm curious to watch and see myself...
All that said, the spot is a very good one for Ball St before a brutal last two games vs the elite of the MAC.
hoopsstar22
Captain of Vanzack's yacht
Very nice pointing out the margin of victory.
But, how does a team rank #79 in Rush D, despite blowing everyone away, and the other teams constantly having to pass and play catchup?
Carry on.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
My first thoughts were this too and if I play the game it will be on the over...all that said, there are arguments both ways..
Positive to the over:
Ball hasn't scored less than 24 all year, no less than 31 in conf, and no less than 31 at home..
NIU has played two offenses with a pulse, Minny and WMU, and gave up 37 and 29 respectively
Offensive showcase game at home
Negatives:
Both teams are ranked in top 15 in total scoring defense (per Sexy Rexy)
NIU is a running team and uses a lot of clock
Ball has sputtered last three games, coinciding with losing their top receiver
Both of NIU's bad defensive games were the first two games of year...showed steady improvement has year went on under new regime (once again vs bad teams, so it's up in the air how much it means)
This game is very difficult to guage...and they always have a gritty bunch up in DeKalb...whether under the old coach or the new one which I'm very high on.
Great coaching stable in the MAC right now.
scraps@midnight
Pretty much a regular
i don't know! but they seem to crush people none the less. i do understand they are not dominant in all phases but what they do seems to work in a very consistent manner. don't get me wrong...i do not see this as a very big play for me, but i do not think i would play niu at all. just trying to add to the discussion.
jump...agree on the impressive coaches in the mac. had along conversation about it last night.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Jump, you make some good points, no doubt about it. I considered their road games @ Minny and @ Tennessee but I think Ball St would beat both of those teams. Very unimpressed with Minnesota and disappointed I bet them last week, yea they are having a good year but still don't think they are anything special and Tennessee hasn't had an offense all year. Its been 7 games since NIU has faced a team with a QB, the last time was against WMU. Ball St hasn't faced a team with a pulse in the last 3 weeks either but they've also only given up 88ypg on the ground. Then it comes down to matchups. Does NIU matchup well with Ball St? I'm not so sure of that. Can they score what might be a minimum of 21-24 points tonight to cover the spread? If they are kept under 20, I really doubt they will cover.. Will they be able to rely on the arm of their RS-Frosh QB on the road if they are down 13? I know Harnish threw for 327 against Minny, he has also thrown for 324 in his other 4 games combined. His feet are his #1 weapon, not his arm. All it takes is a mistake or 2 and a very opportunisitic offense will make them pay.. NIU scoring defense has look good lately but the 2 teams they played with an offense, they gave up 60 points combined so I take what they've done lately with a grain of salt. I think this is a statement game for Ball St and I know I probably will be in the minority as far as backing Ball St because many people will see NIU playing Tenn and Minny tough but its more about matchups than final scores for me. If I were to play NIU, it would be in the 1st half only considering how slow of a start Ball St has gotten off to lately but that still isn't strong enough for me to play that side.
spooks
You Can't Make This Up
Great points about the positives and cant argue with that. Although NIU defense has tightened up the last few games, BUT those were against BGSU, Toledo, Miami(OH), E. Michigan, Tennessee, Indiana St.
These teams have sputtering offenses, QB issues, with 1 exception of points shaving (Toledo), and you can thrown out Indiana St. All with mediocre at best defenses as well. NIU has probably face they're toughest defense in Tennessee on the road.
I think Coach Krill is very good coach as he was he did with the Salikis program and now NIU. But, I'm in no hurry to back them against a spread attack offense with a only a running game. It's like bringing a knife to a gun fight. But I do lean hard to the over.....
TopDaddy
Pretty much a regular
Got this game at 28-17, Ball St. Like what ETG had to say (must be a salesman), and I think this shakes out much like last night's game, where the dog is forced to get away from the gameplan, pass the ball more often then they would like, and all that with a bottom tier quarterback. NIU fits this description if Ball St can come out fired up, score quick, and make NIU play catch up all game. Based on my rankings (which is nothing special, but it's what I've got) this will be each teams' toughest opponent to date, so the UNDER does look appealing, especially since it seems that this line is begging you to take the OVER.
Ball St. -9', UNDER 48 for me tonight...
Ball St. -9', UNDER 48 for me tonight...
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
JUst one guy's opinion, but this looks like way too many points to be giving the Huskies. Ball State has won every game by double digits, sure, but Northern Ill hasn't lost a game by double digits all season - so its a wash.
Northern Ill has a great run and pass defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both rushing AND passing per game. Any time I can get a defense like that and nearly double digits against a very public fave - I'm on it. This will be a large play for me tonight. Good luck
Northern Ill has a great run and pass defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both rushing AND passing per game. Any time I can get a defense like that and nearly double digits against a very public fave - I'm on it. This will be a large play for me tonight. Good luck
