NHL 18-19 4% edge system up 40 units as of 4/1/19

peelpub94

peelpub94

More Guards Than Shawshank
I started a little project where I'm tracking www.moneypuck.com probability of winning % against Vegas line implied probability. I'm tracking to see if we can find any correlation or value when moneypuck probability and Vegas probability disagree. Going to see if there's a threshold where we can blind bet on games that have somewhere around a 5% edge or higher. Here's the link below to what I'm tracking:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TtEQX2DhrVK3atr9GsCF8XdrnuW1U1Mbaj6p9oHEJkk/edit#gid=0

Any questions, comments welcome!
 
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I will show you the filter I made on betlabs tracking back 3 years. Do you use betlabs?

Essentially, divisional faves, home or away, between -115 and -185 with some tweaks for teams or opposing on 2 game winning or losing streaks. Last 3 years 227-316, ROI higher than 25%. If you wait till game 15, closer to 36% as lines get tighter.

I have much better luck in grinding seasons to play systems.
 
Puckline is always painful with empty nets, that's why I want to be on plus money side, I want to be on team going for empty net

Cause the opposite are always the worst mooses haha
 
Same approach as that Barry thread.

People just need to stay realistic in what the results will look like as they accrue and have realistic expectations.

Just like edges that casinos have over the players. They aren't huge from a % standpoint, but they're "true" edges that grind out over time into huge gains.

If the bettor doesn't have patience and is willing to grind, systems like this aren't even worth betting for them.

I'll be following your sheet as I am a fan of this kind of stuff.

Thanks Peel
 
HonestD said:
Same approach as that Barry thread.

People just need to stay realistic in what the results will look like as they accrue and have realistic expectations.

Just like edges that casinos have over the players. They aren't huge from a % standpoint, but they're "true" edges that grind out over time into huge gains.

If the bettor doesn't have patience and is willing to grind, systems like this aren't even worth betting for them.

I'll be following your sheet as I am a fan of this kind of stuff.

Thanks Peel
Click to expand...

Cool man. I really have no expectations and won't necessarily be betting on all of these. Going to need a lot of data before we can start actually making any kind of correlations but it should be fun. If you have any suggestions around better formatting let me know. I think I'm going to rearrange it a bit now that I've been playing with it.
 
peelpub94 said:
2-2 +1.1u so far. Calgary +155 the only play last night was a winner.

Tonight all 3 games qualify as model plays based on the disagreement of 5% or higher.

OTT +115
VGK +135
AZ +155
Click to expand...

If you sold a goal, you would have lost the same games but be up about 2 more units.

I like your spreadsheet. Very tidy.
 
@HonestD helped me out a ton to get the right formatting going. He basically took what I had in my head and extrapolated it even more :)

I didn't know about accuscore until HonestD showed me. I agreed to adding it there as a way to add another tool to track. He even had the thought to create a "powerplay" situation when both Accuscore and MoneyPuck have the same or greater than 5% edge.
 
Big_Degenerate said:
Philly gots smoked in home opener last bnight and now is favored in Ottawa? Are the Sens really bad?
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Flyers should be a playoff team. Ottawa is picked to be at the very bottom of the league, but has started out OK, even winning against the Leafs Saturday night. Flyers were outright embarrassed and stomped on last night, they will no doubt be pissed but that team has all kinds of locker room and coaching trouble. I wouldn't lay -140 in a million years in their current state.
 
I get nervous when people tail, but I expect you guys are adults and can deal with the swings if and when they happen. This is purely experimental as I'm adapting from Berryhorse's methodology in finding edge using predictive models like moneypuck. My personal opinion is that Vegas may be slightly behind and underpricing some underdogs. There has been some interesting changes to goalie equipment where certain shots are now turning into goals, above the shoulder and underneath the arms. These goals can be the difference in underdogs jumping out early, gaining momentum, or getting that late tying goal. Either way, I think we have a good shot at finding value by the end of year.
 
peelpub94 said:
I get nervous when people tail, but I expect you guys are adults and can deal with the swings if and when they happen. This is purely experimental as I'm adapting from Berryhorse's methodology in finding edge using predictive models like moneypuck. My personal opinion is that Vegas may be slightly behind and underpricing some underdogs. There has been some interesting changes to goalie equipment where certain shots are now turning into goals, above the shoulder and underneath the arms. These goals can be the difference in underdogs jumping out early, gaining momentum, or getting that late tying goal. Either way, I think we have a good shot at finding value by the end of year.
Click to expand...

I’m betting $10 a game if it makes you feel better. Agree that Vegas spends least amount of time lining hockey especially with all the other sports going on atm
 
I watched the whole Sharks/Phila game. Surprised how flat Phila looked being home opener and all. Maybe they were "Looking Ahead" To Ottawa... Hahaha
 
Getting plus odds on Ottawa may be a play for me. I just wonder if somehow Philly is a little embarrassed from giving up 8, and come out a little fired up?
 
No question they come out fired up, they're human beings. Pickard is in net for the Flyers too, played 1 game all last season, hasn't worked out with any team yet. Ottawa has played much better than expectations and they are not being lined that way. Eye test would line this game in favor of Ottawa somewhere around -140/+125 which is a little lower than how Moneypuck sees it. It's hockey though, anything can happen.
 
For the system plays, I personally cannot see Detroit winning this outright. Vancouver may have a pretty difficult task as well, but TB hasn't played since Saturday. Minnesota is usually a very difficult team at home but Chicago has shown they have no issues scoring at all. Rangers are still looking for their first win, are the Sharks the team that got shut out by the Islanders, or the team that blew up the Flyers? Lots of interesting situations tonight.

Couple of other notes, CHI is no longer a play if it's below +150, there's a chance it comes back up again. If more money comes in on the Caps, NJ can become a play as well, same for CGY.

We have our first 2 power plays (MTL & NYR) where both models MoneyPuck and Accuscore agree. These will be coded in light blue as we'll be tracking this situation as well.
 
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peelpub94 said:
For the system plays, I personally cannot see Detroit winning this outright. Vancouver may have a pretty difficult task as well, but TB hasn't played since Saturday. Minnesota is usually a very difficult team at home but Chicago has shown they have no issues scoring at all. Rangers are still looking for their first win, are the Sharks the team that got shut out by the Islanders, or the team that blew up the Flyers? Lots of interesting situations tonight.

Couple of other notes, CHI is no longer a play if it's below +150, there's a chance it comes back up again. If more money comes in on the Caps, NJ can become a play as well, same for CGY.

We have our first 2 power plays (MTL & NYR) where both models MoneyPuck and Accuscore agree. These will be coded in light blue as we'll be tracking this situation as well.
Click to expand...



Agreed. I have Toronto winning tonight by almost two goals.


The Montreal play is interesting to me. This matches a situation I've had come up twice in my other hockey model and the line move really told the story.
 
Last night came very close to a huge night. Hawks giving up a short handed goal with 2 seconds left to tie it, then lose in OT was the difference. Can't tell you how many posts the Red Wings hit last night too, easily could've gone the other way as well. Early on, I do like what moneypuck has been predicting in terms of probability.

Last night, 2-3 +0.45u

YTD 5-7 +1.10u
 
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I know it’s not the best or most accurate but ESPN has the following;

StL -108
Edmonton -110
Philly -118
LA -147
Bos -250
Min -143
Pitt -133
TB -172
FL -217
Wash -125
Nashville -233
Dal -161
Ari -147
Colo -141
 
Saturday's model plays with 5% or higher edge:

NYR -105
OTT +125
DET +225
TOR +105
MTL +145
CBJ +160
VAN +170
AZ -130

Still need lines for DAL, CHI & COL.
 
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