NFL OVER/UNDER system

Carson4MVfnP

Carson4MVfnP

Member
Hello. First time poster but I am not new betting. Got banned from Covers like most everyone else who won so I thought I would find a new site. Going to start off at 0-0 even though I was doing quite well.

NFL PICKS FOR WEEK

#1. Cleveland/Pittsburgh OVER 33.0 (I capped at 40.0)
***special note about this play. I still like this play alot due to the differance but what scares the shit out of me is the weather. Cold as shit and snowy as hell is what I have gathered from the forecast. This line opened at 37 or so and has dropped considerably. Still like it but havent really dealt with games of this manner.

#2. Minn/Det UNDER 38.5 (I capped at 34.5)

#3. Buff/Jets OVER 37.0 (I capped at 47.5)

#4. Chic/Stl OVER 40.5 (I capped at 45.5)

#5. Dall/N.O UNDER 48.0 (I capped at 42.5)



GO BENGALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Good luck Carson! weather is a wild card in this one.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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Welcome Carson, good to see you found the site ok...

All - he went 4-1 last week with his picks...
 
i think i'll stick with your last 4 picks... i already took the under 37 back when the lines came out :) GL
 
I think the over for tonights game is money, I really dont see either team playing alot of solid D, Both teams should have a releatively easy time moving the ball, the weather In my opinion only helps the over as the general public will by into all the snow hype, remember the Green Bay Seattle game, It went way over, I expect the same outcome tonight....
BOL welcome

What was your screename at the other site?
 
gotta do it

Ive gotta stick with the over tonight. Weather still scares me but it is a lot more attainable than the original line. Has anyone ever noticed this??? I have done NO Research on it but it seems like in those snow games the UNDER is always hitting in the first half (confortably), and the OVER hits confortably in the second half. I remember a lot of snow games this fit too, the most notable one being the oakland denver game about 2/3 years ago. I could be wrong but dont think this is something that could be looked up. finger, I had told all the troops about this site that replied to my email from covers. Hopefully the start signing up.
 
troutman. I agree i think they buy into the hype a whole lot. 4 point movement on a spread that is 48 or 49 with snow isnt that huge of a deal but one that is already set at 37.5 that is a good percentage of change. If Charlie Frye starts (dont know why the fuck that fat ass romeo would do that after derek anderson last week) pittsburgh is almost garaunteed the total with pick 6's turned to the house. Most importantly I will be watching the game not to see if the over hits, but too be praying for injuries on both sides. I hate both teams and if we are lucky some drunken steelers fan will mistake Joey Porter for a gang banger and kill him. GO BENGALS! all you steelers fans that talk nothing but shit where are you at. get the golf reservations ready for January cause you arent going to no fucking playoffs.
 
Carson4MVfnP said:
troutman. I agree i think they buy into the hype a whole lot. 4 point movement on a spread that is 48 or 49 with snow isnt that huge of a deal but one that is already set at 37.5 that is a good percentage of change. If Charlie Frye starts (dont know why the fuck that fat ass romeo would do that after derek anderson last week) pittsburgh is almost garaunteed the total with pick 6's turned to the house. Most importantly I will be watching the game not to see if the over hits, but too be praying for injuries on both sides. I hate both teams and if we are lucky some drunken steelers fan will mistake Joey Porter for a gang banger and kill him. GO BENGALS! all you steelers fans that talk nothing but shit where are you at. get the golf reservations ready for January cause you arent going to no fucking playoffs.
Click to expand...

hahahaha wow... maybe i'll take a closer look. you're absolutely right about snow/cold conditions always bringing the O/U down a few pts and it always hitting over...
 
hmm there was that NE/IND game a few years ago up in NE where they scored like 15 total pts or something rediculous....
 
Troutman said:
I think the over for tonights game is money, I really dont see either team playing alot of solid D, Both teams should have a releatively easy time moving the ball, the weather In my opinion only helps the over as the general public will by into all the snow hype, remember the Green Bay Seattle game, It went way over, I expect the same outcome tonight....
BOL welcome

What was your screename at the other site?
Click to expand...

The difference there is it really didnt snow much though in Sea.....weather was a non factor. The line has been adjusted down due to weather not bet down a huge difference. If anything the public is buying the weather will NOT be a factor. The simpliest approach with extreme weather conditions is just wait till gametime. If the weather will not be an issue the books will allow the number to creep backup. If they feel it will be an issue they will hold it at 33...

Why would two teams who are defensive orientated wakeup and decide not to play defense? To me that doesnt make sense....

They have taken the value out of the game IMO with the line moves....now its just a guess.....why guess?? GL
 
Nut,

I do believe that both of these teams are defensive minded, but without the personel to employ your defensive scheme then what can you truly expect? Yeah they want to play defense, everyone does, but that doesnt mean that they can. That is what i am basing my play on, They also played over in their previous game, I think the offense has the advantage when teams meet for the second time of the season. THese are just my opinions of the subject....Nut, I do however really value your take on things becasue you take a very analytical approach to capping, and I like that. I try to approach these things the same way...

. :cheers:
 
Troutman said:
If the number does creep back up I may by back the bet and try to middle.
Click to expand...

if you took O33 and it crept up to 35/36 why would you try to middle? wouldn't you be in a good spot?
 
Troutman said:
Nut,

I do believe that both of these teams are defensive minded, but without the personel to employ your defensive scheme then what can you truly expect? Yeah they want to play defense, everyone does, but that doesnt mean that they can. That is what i am basing my play on, They also played over in their previous game, I think the offense has the advantage when teams meet for the second time of the season. THese are just my opinions of the subject....Nut, I do however really value your take on things becasue you take a very analytical approach to capping, and I like that. I try to approach these things the same way...

. :cheers:
Click to expand...

What personel is missing? Polamu has been hurt all year and it appears to have been a down yer for him. You have a guy who played well last week and a #1 pick...

I know what your trying to say and all but basically the same defense just pitched shutout didnt it? With whoever is listed on Cle's injury list I know at the end it doesnt matter Romeo always finds a way..

It just my opinion as I said the value has been squashed by the adjustment. I felt it was better to wait to see what factor the weather actually was. Once you lock yourself into a play its hard to get off...If the books are getting alot of OVER money and they still feel the need to rdeuce the line that should at least be a heads up to remain cautious. Dont assume cause a line went down 5 points the money is on the under..we had a QB change follwoed by a weather update....

You citied the MNF game a few weeks back and I think the weather was alot les then expected. Here it seems to be alot worse then expected but thats just from what people are saying.....

Plus your really banking on a rookie to put pts on the board on the road without much help.....

Just gather as much infor b4 you dive in. It just seems to early to know what the weather will be......

GL
 
I understand your points nut but I didnt make my decesion based on weather I made my decesion based on the fact that Pitt will score, to sya that Romeo will find a way is wishful thinking, his defense hasnt been able to find its way on the road or at home. Giving up over 20pts a game doesnt seem like their defense is finding a way. Pitts defense on a whole is down this year also allowing around 20pts a game too. I think the weather adjustment increases the value as most are quick to assume that bad weather means lower totals, which isnt neccesarily the case...I think that 33 points from these two teams is pretty likely seeing that they have played over in the recent past at a decent %. I think the public preception is that this will be a running game that is dominated by defenses. I like my bet, If I lose and your right then that a lesson learned.
Thanks NUT:shake:
 
Trout -

I am with ya...just have a different view on things. Personally a defense allowing 20 pts a game is sound IMO. There is something to be said for how opponents are scoring as well.

No lessons...only think with situations involving weather and extreme total moves caution is the best option. If the weather is as bad as expected I like the Under alot ifs more like the GB-Sea its a pass for me. I just dont see how Anderson moves the ball here. Steelers D is down slightily but QB's like TB amd KC did absolutely nothing in Pitt. Then the fact Parker is so good at home it allows then to ask Ben to do less. Last week they scored off turnovers by TB. The way I see it TBs defense isnt much better then Cle. Both are patchwork with a couple stars....both tend to bend not break. They will break if your offense doesnt do enough.....

Wish ya luck.....certainly dont think your wrong its just this weather moves are tricky.......but I see the NFL network will be live shortly and you can better get a feel for the weather...the mere fact a line moves 5 pts should always bringa caution sign.....GL...
 
Just saw it watch NFL network PreGame now.....


22 feels like 9...snowing and winds NW @20 MPH...gotta run...so keep the weather sit updated!

Flurries though but looks very windy!
 
I think its a good sign for over backers they have allowed the total to creep back up....basically saying the weather will not be an extreme situation tonite.....satying off any totals......Good Luck
 
Carson4MVfnP said:
Hello. First time poster but I am not new betting. Got banned from Covers like most everyone else who won so I thought I would find a new site. Going to start off at 0-0 even though I was doing quite well.

NFL PICKS FOR WEEK

#1. Cleveland/Pittsburgh OVER 33.0 (I capped at 40.0)
***special note about this play. I still like this play alot due to the differance but what scares the shit out of me is the weather. Cold as shit and snowy as hell is what I have gathered from the forecast. This line opened at 37 or so and has dropped considerably. Still like it but havent really dealt with games of this manner.

#2. Minn/Det UNDER 38.5 (I capped at 34.5)

#3. Buff/Jets OVER 37.0 (I capped at 47.5)

#4. Chic/Stl OVER 40.5 (I capped at 45.5)

#5. Dall/N.O UNDER 48.0 (I capped at 42.5)



GO BENGALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...


Welcome to the Sports Institution! :shake:
 
One word. Whoheee. Not going to really comment on the game to much because I was watching it via CBSSportsline because the NFL is trying to ruin the best sport alive with NFL Network. My cable company dropped it.
 
a win is a win though. That blocked and missed FG first half made me want to punch something but we ended up hitting anyways. night
 
Carson - Do you think there's any advantage to holding off just before kick-off to pull the trigger on these? I checked some lines vs the openers & saw there was slight movement (all in your favor) but didn't know if you have found this historically backfires with your system.
 
dont really know about the line movement. think i could easily go for or against you just happened to go in my favor this time. The site I use for previous years doesnt have the line change
 
and the rest of the no plays. some are close to being plays but will lay of regardless. these no plays have been successfull too. wont play them big but will tease all of these for fun.


Tenn/Hous 43.5
Oak/Cinc 41.5
Phil/Wash 43.0
Gia/Caro 38.5
Ne/Mia 34.5
indy/jax 42.5
atl/tb 39.0
sea/zona 43.5
denv/sd 39.5
balt/kc 35.0
gb/sf 41.0
 
Whats up Bro...............

Made it over finally.............left a post, but you already got it...

I'm out tonight...........Good Luck.......
 
well, 2 and 2 on this weeks picks. Get a win tomarrow and it will be another winning week. Will be doing system revamps for next week. Found a trend with the unders that my spreadsheet comes up with. All the loses for the past 4 weeks of system (3) were all unders. an over has yet to lose. i had tracked this going back a couple of years and it seems the overs are the way to go.
 
Whats up bro...

rough week........?
me to...........!

was at the rams game last night...........mt boys looked good untill 2nd half...................oh well my team sucks this year!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lookin to have a much nicer week 15!!!
Lookin at some solid plays for this wee, also a couple of totals...........
Some good divisional games this week, they fall into some great situations!

hit me up..........shamerock
 
looks like a lot of people had a rough week. I went 3 and 2 which isn't special but would take it every day if I could. its so hard to bet on the nfl as any team can win from week to week. that is the main reason I only do totals. ne 0 mia 21 if they played tommarow it could be 52 ne to miami 3. I am finishing up my totals for this week. so far there are 6 games that had a greater of 4 differamce than vegas's total but 2 were unders. since I am only playing overs I will only have 4 plays. once I double check the numbers I will post.
 
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