Week #5 NFL Discussion (with lookahead lines)

KJ said:
Yeah if I spend more than a few minutes on NFL regular season games I would employ someone to smack me upside the head

It's common knowledge that no sport has tighter lines than NFL, just not worth the effort to validate any opinion I have. Rather cap pickleball
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Lol. We agree on this. I’m beating college props by 100 yards. Like I care if im right bout packers
 
2daBank said:
We have that in common! I tend to make more of it on props than actual nfl sides tho! Love numbers been pretty short, think I’m gonna be blasting him this week assuming it under 230.. I dunno, only reason I came to nfl forum was to try to talk bout tonight. I generally don’t worry bout nfl till after a bash the books heads in on ncaa games and props! :).

What you think bout tonight? I’m very torn, I have no doubt Washington pass rush gonna be all In fields face but I dunno if they will maintain gap control? They prob gonna sack him a bunch but I could see a monster rushing game for him, he gonna be running for his life!

Wish I trusted bears oc, smart teams have been getting their beat wr matched up on commanders rookie corner and roasting him, DJ Moore will have field day if they do this!

I love commanders offense, Bienemy will finally start getting credit he deserves. I’m just not sure bout game script tonight. If the d turns fields over and reeks havoc in 1st half it could be a very heavy Brian Robinson rush game! If bears manage to stay in it Howell and co will put up numbers.
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If I was to bet it I'd be on the under but I'll just sit back and watch it.
 
KJ said:
Yeah if I spend more than a few minutes on NFL regular season games I would employ someone to smack me upside the head

It's common knowledge that no sport has tighter lines than NFL, just not worth the effort to validate any opinion I have. Rather cap pickleball
Click to expand...
Pickleball :D
 
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Reactions: KJ
I enjoy betting the NFL. I just have a strategy in finding 1-3 sides per week that the wrong team is favored. I do pretty well overall.
 
Loves2kickass said:
If I was to bet it I'd be on the under but I'll just sit back and watch it.
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I love the thu night under angle but imo Washington a dead over team. Their secondary is pretty bad and I love the offense with Bienemy calling plays, I think Howell a player, and they got nice pieces on outside and the backfield. The pass rush should get better but man, I noticed it like week 2 of preseason and it hasn’t chanced yet, commanders secondary can be had in a big way!!!!! Just gotta give qb time.

I just played small stuff.,

DJ Moore 100+ yards paid super fat (+900 or something crazy!)

Fields 70+ rushing was like +250

Then I played Robinson and mcclarrion reg prop numbers
 
O
B.A.R. said:
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You guys are beat the hell up, my understanding is st brown for sure out, not sure how much I wanna get involved w gibbs rec props with a bad hammy? Montgomery is back and fine isn’t he? Line seems super high for how banged up ya’ll are and I think panthers d has looked decent at times, I was thinking straight under but then I heard panthers have a lot of injuries on the defensive side! Seems like a game I’m prob gonna just stay far away from. Maybe LePorta prop I guess?
 
2daBank said:
O


You guys are beat the hell up, my understanding is st brown for sure out, not sure how much I wanna get involved w gibbs rec props with a bad hammy? Montgomery is back and fine isn’t he? Line seems super high for how banged up ya’ll are and I think panthers d has looked decent at times, I was thinking straight under but then I heard panthers have a lot of injuries on the defensive side! Seems like a game I’m prob gonna just stay far away from. Maybe LePorta prop I guess?
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Sun God = out
Gibbs = out
 
2daBank said:
O


You guys are beat the hell up, my understanding is st brown for sure out, not sure how much I wanna get involved w gibbs rec props with a bad hammy? Montgomery is back and fine isn’t he? Line seems super high for how banged up ya’ll are and I think panthers d has looked decent at times, I was thinking straight under but then I heard panthers have a lot of injuries on the defensive side! Seems like a game I’m prob gonna just stay far away from. Maybe LePorta prop I guess?
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Definitely would be laying the #

Think they bang with Monty a lot and play action.
 
2daBank said:
Yea makes sense. Ya’ll get the young wr back this week right? Has he been allowed to be practicing with team during the suspension?
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Well, he was hurt as well.

NFL had a weird policy on even caring for injury during suspension.
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, he was hurt as well.

NFL had a weird policy on even caring for injury during suspension.
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Ah. Rules annoy me! Lol. Think he a factor? I mean I’m sure they can say just run go routes! Dunno if there any kind of timing there between him and Goff but he could certainly help clear out the middle for LePorta!
 
How can ya not like jags having been in london and also it being their home away from home. Def take the points, maybe ml. I’d Zay Jones gonna play?
 
I don’t understand why “sharps” love atl? Of course I didn’t understand them betting them up before season either. Ridder is not a nfl qb. I don’t see any damn way a very good defensive coach let’s a team with that turd playing qb score much? Stroud and the game plans been fantastic, I’ll be a square and fade the shit out of atl as long as Ridder the qb!

Whether I’m right or wrong bout game script I still love collins ov 57.5 and I see no reason not to take a shot on a tank dell alt number! 80+ is +475! You can get 10-1 on 100+ but why be greedy! (Lmao).,
 
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Pretty much gotta play henry vs colts right? New staff but he has ram thru this team so many times, I’ll happily take some over 76.5 and play the alt number up to 110+ at +310! Or ya could go the reg number + tuddy as colts give up lot of rush tds.

Gonna be fascinating to see titans d vs this colts offense. Titans d have killed this team but this ain’t frank riech offense with bunch of washed up qbs! Vrabel loves to play games with his dline and get matchups they want and they very good at it, can they do that against this kid without risking him taking off? I gotta think Vrabel will play it little different but that presents a problem for titans, their secondary usually benefits greatly from the pass rush, when they not getting him qbs tend to light them up! I went back and looked at titans last few years vs running type qbs and they mostly held the rushing in check but quite a few of them had big passing games. I’m very interested In Pittman ov 59.5 and prob sone alt numbers, and Richardson over 215.5 passing.
 
2daBank said:
Ah. Rules annoy me! Lol. Think he a factor? I mean I’m sure they can say just run go routes! Dunno if there any kind of timing there between him and Goff but he could certainly help clear out the middle for LePorta!
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I don't think he's a huge factor. I do think he plays but we'll see Reynolds more along with my least favorite Lion, Marvin.
 
2daBank said:
How can ya not like jags having been in london and also it being their home away from home. Def take the points, maybe ml. I’d Zay Jones gonna play?
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Like Jags a lot. I have yet to bet, but man they have stuck out to me.

Feels like that perfect "NFL" spot.
 
2daBank said:
Ah. Rules annoy me! Lol. Think he a factor? I mean I’m sure they can say just run go routes! Dunno if there any kind of timing there between him and Goff but he could certainly help clear out the middle for LePorta!
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Hope so in Sam, bud.

53.5 I saw. Definitely in play.

Posted my Monty props.
 
B.A.R. said:
Like Jags a lot. I have yet to bet, but man they have stuck out to me.

Feels like that perfect "NFL" spot.
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Yea, I played them last week to, I basically think they hold a edge over everyone in the london games, doubly so this week since this the 1st time they got to play b2b weeks there! Won’t be long till that their permanent home, nfl cares way more bout money than the competitive advantage/disadvantage this will cause on home/road splits! Lol
 
Only reasoning I see ppl posting about fading Bills is the scheduling spot.

There is concern with Benford out as now they have to bring Elam and Dane Jackson into the defensive backfield. Rousseau out/Von in really to me a wash as everyone has been getting after it on the DL. I'd expect Von to be on a snap count as Epinesa will fill in just fine.

With the wr core Jax has I do have concern but if the Dline can pressure the way they have been it'll ease the pressure on the dbs. I don't see how the Jags stop the rush.

Offensively you want to bet against the Bills rn why???? They are playing bonkers with options at every position. It could come from anywhere & Diggs is the closest thing to unguardable right now. They have to double which leaves single coverage on Gabe with a rb that is great out in space and getting better every week.


If it weren't for the injuries I'd be heavy on the Bills ats & team ttoal, but I do think they may want to control top and get it over with quick should they jump ahead early.

Ill be watching to see if there is an advantage in a 2ndh line but I think Bills ats gets there
 
Lexington 125 said:
Only reasoning I see ppl posting about fading Bills is the scheduling spot.

There is concern with Benford out as now they have to bring Elam and Dane Jackson into the defensive backfield. Rousseau out/Von in really to me a wash as everyone has been getting after it on the DL. I'd expect Von to be on a snap count as Epinesa will fill in just fine.

With the wr core Jax has I do have concern but if the Dline can pressure the way they have been it'll ease the pressure on the dbs. I don't see how the Jags stop the rush.

Offensively you want to bet against the Bills rn why???? They are playing bonkers with options at every position. It could come from anywhere & Diggs is the closest thing to unguardable right now. They have to double which leaves single coverage on Gabe with a rb that is great out in space and getting better every week.


If it weren't for the injuries I'd be heavy on the Bills ats & team ttoal, but I do think they may want to control top and get it over with quick should they jump ahead early.

Ill be watching to see if there is an advantage in a 2ndh line but I think Bills ats gets there
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I’m not fading bills I’m playing on jags who are slowly turning london into the biggest home field advantage in the league!! Bills big game was last week, not saying they don’t care here but dropping this one not the end the world. I still think we yet to see close to jags best football and think this a perfect week for it all to come together w the week of practice away from all the distractions of home. This offense should be way better w these weapons, this qb, and a coach I respect his offensive acumen. There a week coming jags offense looks great, maybe it won’t be here but it could be. Nothing against bills tho, they look like class the afc at the moment.
 
2daBank said:
Don’t understand that line no matter who playing qb for raiders. Packers gotta be getting healthy by now? No respect for love? I’m assuming Jimmy G has to be playing with this line?
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even if he does Jimmy G is likely to be average while Love will probably be bad, but Vegas won't play a home game to any team with a fanbase so LVR favored is like saying they're better on a neutral field and GB would be below -3 at home
 
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