NFL Off-season Preliminary Discussion...

Bottom 8 teams to win the Super Bowl next year on Fox Bet

Houston 150-1
Detroit 125-1
NY Jets 120-1
Jacksonville 100-1
NY Giants 85-1
Carolina 70-1
Pittsburgh 70-1 :pointandlaugh:
Atlanta 66-1

"The standard is the standard".
 
Watson and Rodgers probably landing somewhere. MIA DEN CAR seem likely to get 1. Denver already priced like adding Rodgers.
 
rambler882 said:
Buy Chargers future.
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Not with that coach imo. Afc too good. Kc, bills, and gotta think cincy will fix the oline. I like Herbert as much as next guy but long as that coach is refusing to kick fgs, going for it in dumb spots, and playing a defense that allows teams to gash them with the run game I don’t see them being anything other than fringe playoff team who goes home early. Maybe Staley will learn but judging by his pressers after games I think he really believes his garbage all analytic approach really the right way to go about it!! Like I say in every sport they a great tool but using them as the be all end all will never be a winning formula. The world not black and white and robots don’t play the game! When your team goes on several 10+ play drives and are dominating but they on sideline and see the score 0-0 still it demoralizing! You have to take the points sometimes even if fgs are no fun!!
 
HUNT said:
Ravens, chargers and Niners. Haven't made any yet though
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Agree with 2 of 3.,, my charger stance well known. Lol. Be interesting to see if Trey lance turns into a franchise qb? If so niners gonna be right back in the mix.
 
2daBank said:
Not with that coach imo. Afc too good. Kc, bills, and gotta think cincy will fix the oline. I like Herbert as much as next guy but long as that coach is refusing to kick fgs, going for it in dumb spots, and playing a defense that allows teams to gash them with the run game I don’t see them being anything other than fringe playoff team who goes home early. Maybe Staley will learn but judging by his pressers after games I think he really believes his garbage all analytic approach really the right way to go about it!! Like I say in every sport they a great tool but using them as the be all end all will never be a winning formula. The world not black and white and robots don’t play the game! When your team goes on several 10+ play drives and are dominating but they on sideline and see the score 0-0 still it demoralizing! You have to take the points sometimes even if fgs are no fun!!
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Narrative of AFC too good but Bengals just made the super bowl. Anything can happen and it is about value. The main thing the Chargers had as an issue was run defense which can be easily addressed in the draft and free agency. As for the head coach, I don't get all the hate. Folks said similar shit about McVay and Taylor was on a hot seat. End of the day, they have a top 5 QB, elite weapons, a top 10 OL, good pass rush, good secondary. A near complete team with money to spend and pick to use.
 
rambler882 said:
Narrative of AFC too good but Bengals just made the super bowl. Anything can happen and it is about value. The main thing the Chargers had as an issue was run defense which can be easily addressed in the draft and free agency. As for the head coach, I don't get all the hate. Folks said similar shit about McVay and Taylor was on a hot seat. End of the day, they have a top 5 QB, elite weapons, a top 10 OL, good pass rush, good secondary. A near complete team with money to spend and pick to use.
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I never said that bout Mcvey, there a huge difference imo. Part the run d isn’t their talent on d, it his system and belief that running inefficient so he plays schemes that encourage teams to gash them. I just don’t buy anyone who refuses to kick fgs or punt. Maybe he will get better but listening to him makes me think he won’t. He came from defensive side and his philosophy is trash imo. I could be wrong but I will remain a seller on them until I see he isn’t one the worst coaches in the league.
 
HUNT said:
Ravens, chargers and Niners. Haven't made any yet though
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I like that Ravens call out. General rule of thumb for me is anything sub +2000 you can probably get better odds mid season when the team loses a couple games. Example is Chiefs this year was +400 to +500 entering season, I got at +1300 because of narrative of them being bad now. Same shit year before with Brady in Tampa (I didn't buy).

The Niners, I like them too but at +1500, all they need is a slow start or a 2 or 3 game losing streak to see that jump a bit.

FanDuel v. Bovada. Some variety in value, especially Panthers at +5000. Loved that defense, have an explosive WR and RB...Do they make a big move for a QB?

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1644860616905.png
 
2daBank said:
I never said that bout Mcvey, there a huge difference imo. Part the run d isn’t their talent on d, it his system and belief that running inefficient so he plays schemes that encourage teams to gash them. I just don’t buy anyone who refuses to kick fgs or punt. Maybe he will get better but listening to him makes me think he won’t. He came from defensive side and his philosophy is trash imo. I could be wrong but I will remain a seller on them until I see he isn’t one the worst coaches in the league.
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Didn't say you. Yea that is his philosophy but to think he can't adapt or change I think is somewhat misleading to just assume he won't look to alter scheme after seeing it not work.
 
2daBank said:
I never said that bout Mcvey, there a huge difference imo. Part the run d isn’t their talent on d, it his system and belief that running inefficient so he plays schemes that encourage teams to gash them. I just don’t buy anyone who refuses to kick fgs or punt. Maybe he will get better but listening to him makes me think he won’t. He came from defensive side and his philosophy is trash imo. I could be wrong but I will remain a seller on them until I see he isn’t one the worst coaches in the league.
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It is all about value. At 25:1 when I think they are easily a playoff team is a good get. Hell, the Bronocs are 18:1 because they "might" get a QB
 
Don’t get me wrong, Hebert is freaking awesome so guess they could do it. Just think he be held back until they clean house of that entire coaching staff or they improve dramatically. That certainly possible, normally I would say a young 1st year coach will improve, just listening to Staley I think he still believes he did right things so will continue doing them.
 
rambler882 said:
I like that Ravens call out. General rule of thumb for me is anything sub +2000 you can probably get better odds mid season when the team loses a couple games. Example is Chiefs this year was +400 to +500 entering season, I got at +1300 because of narrative of them being bad now. Same shit year before with Brady in Tampa (I didn't buy).

The Niners, I like them too but at +1500, all they need is a slow start or a 2 or 3 game losing streak to see that jump a bit.

FanDuel v. Bovada. Some variety in value, especially Panthers at +5000. Loved that defense, have an explosive WR and RB...Do they make a big move for a QB?

View attachment 62113

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The Niners also could get Rodgers
 
rambler882 said:
It is all about value. At 25:1 when I think they are easily a playoff team is a good get. Hell, the Bronocs are 18:1 because they "might" get a QB
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But if they do get a qb that prob takes chargers out the playoff picture. I understand what you saying. Right or wrong I just dig in on certain beliefs. Almost bit me in the ass this year with my belief you can’t Win while your oline gets dominated at LOS! Lol. I’m dug in on believing Staley will never win no matter how much I like the qb and talent on that team: if he does it will be because he drastically changes philosophy imo, could happen.
 
In fairness to me I think I was ahead of everyone with the Staley hate!! Lol. I was playing running back props against them all year and faded them a lot. I think a lot the hate more recent as lot of ppl applauded his aggressiveness early!!
 
I don’t think I have said too many horrible things bout Zach Taylor the way I do Staley? I know others have, I think I was more in the “I’m not sure, don’t know” camp with him. Still not sure how good he is? He doesn’t do anything I find blatantly terrible the way Staley does lots of things! Lol
 
New Orleans in cap hell. Kamara situation bad. They'll get Mike Thomas back, he interesting what they do at qb. Bucs too
 
HUNT said:
Fins would be interesting but it's more likely Denver. I think sanfran would trade Jimmy g and picks for Rodgers
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Why I'm looking at Denver and Miami myself. Hackett (GB) and Mike McDaniels or Daniels whatever the fuck it is from SF for MIA is intriguing. Rookie HC though....
 
Don't think the Rams sniff the super bowl. Hard to repeat or even be there two years in a row unless you are Brady
 
rambler882 said:
I like that Ravens call out. General rule of thumb for me is anything sub +2000 you can probably get better odds mid season when the team loses a couple games. Example is Chiefs this year was +400 to +500 entering season, I got at +1300 because of narrative of them being bad now. Same shit year before with Brady in Tampa (I didn't buy).

The Niners, I like them too but at +1500, all they need is a slow start or a 2 or 3 game losing streak to see that jump a bit.

FanDuel v. Bovada. Some variety in value, especially Panthers at +5000. Loved that defense, have an explosive WR and RB...Do they make a big move for a QB?

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I am not much of a future player, even tho I’m arguing against your chargers idea I would trust your opinion at this point more than mine! I hate tying up money long term but with fat plus money I don’t mind as much, and it def nice when ya have chance to get big payday at the end!! This seems so early tho! With teams ability to change so much in offseason these days seems really tough playing any before draft/free agency/etc etc, I guess that a good way to get some that value tho!

Every year I usually play 3-4-5 long shot mlb futures at the all star break (just for like 20-50 bucks tho, maybe 100 tops!) , much like you saying with getting teams at better prices after a reg season slide, I think ya can often get great numbers mid season on mlb, just the last handful of years several teams won it all who looked dead and buried playing slightly below or just at .500 ball come mid season!! when one those teams get hot and get in playoffs they usually primed to go deep as I think momentum goes a long way in baseball!


Ravens I think make a ton of sense. Is there a lot of value in 20-1? That still puts them in top 10 favs doesn’t it? Def think they a team where getting now prob be the best number as they get healthy plus do more good things in offseason as they typically do. I’m assuming there not numbers to win individual divisions yet? I’ll def be thinking bout them to win afc north.
 
HUNT said:
Sleeper team to get a franchise qb. Titans
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They need that and a new OC. Losing smith to coach atl was way bigger deal than I realized. Their play calling against cincy was awful, of course so was tannenhill, maybe if he didn’t start game and then 2nd half with ints they woulda called better plays!
 
rambler882 said:
I like that Ravens call out. General rule of thumb for me is anything sub +2000 you can probably get better odds mid season when the team loses a couple games. Example is Chiefs this year was +400 to +500 entering season, I got at +1300 because of narrative of them being bad now. Same shit year before with Brady in Tampa (I didn't buy).

The Niners, I like them too but at +1500, all they need is a slow start or a 2 or 3 game losing streak to see that jump a bit.

FanDuel v. Bovada. Some variety in value, especially Panthers at +5000. Loved that defense, have an explosive WR and RB...Do they make a big move for a QB?

View attachment 62113

View attachment 62114
Click to expand...

Another factor to this all is DVOA (full season) and weighted (skewed towards how you finish). LAC and DEN stood out, and clearly SF is a good squad so if QB gets an overhaul they are worthy of a premeditated buy. MIA is the one that is hard for me to really buy into because I just don't see them having the playmakers outside of a huge change in players year over year.

LAC, DEN, CAR are my top 3 buys but DEN is sort of priced as if they are getting Rodgers or Watson or ______. BAL @HUNT is a good call. Injuries ravaged them and they competed all season plus have a top HC and dynamic QB.

Seattle is catching my eye a bit, but no clue what their offseason setup is as I think they are short on draft picks and while the cap situation isn't dire, I'm not sure how much actual room they will end up having. Plus Russ shit lingering.
1644866254066.png
 
General rule of thumb for me is to buy low sell high. Ravens have the playoff experience with an mvp qb. I think chargers are a few guys away. Sf is a tough ass football team and I'm confident they'll be in the thick of things with Jimmy g or not. Denver is a qb away, Pittsburgh just a few guys away too. Lot of good options. Miami needs a few more playmakers.
 
Cleveland was 1 play away from the afc championship last year. They'll bounce back.
 
Washington 33-1 if they can get Jimmy G. 56 signed players in 2022 and 30 million in cap. More than enough money to fix the secondary and hope the DL bounces back in what should be a top 3 unit. Rumors swirling they'd be willing to part with the 11 pick if they're not in love with this draft class for GQ. Jimmy, wins, and that division is pretty bad.
 
I really think though the NFC is a 2 horse race between Dallas and SF if Rodgers leaves GB to go the AFC. Rams got their ship, and you saw that team absolutely stall if one of a handful of players gets hurt/injured. Donald wants a massive increase in pay and they're already at the cap without any picks.
 
HUNT said:
The Niners also could get Rodgers
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Would be interesting. If they can get a quality pick for GQ I think it helps in negotiating with GB if Rodgers forces them to trade him.

I don't see Jimmy staying, Brady playing there, Rodgers playing there an indictment of Lance. Dude was a project in college and then didn't play football for over a year, has to come into the most complicated system in football, and is extremely raw. Dude can sit 2-3 years and still be great. Probably better for him tbh
 
Inspekdah said:
Washington 33-1 if they can get Jimmy G. 56 signed players in 2022 and 30 million in cap. More than enough money to fix the secondary and hope the DL bounces back in what should be a top 3 unit. Rumors swirling they'd be willing to part with the 11 pick if they're not in love with this draft class for GQ. Jimmy, wins, and that division is pretty bad.
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I was looking at them too, was curious outlook of a QB
 
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