NFL Divisional Weekend DFS/Props Discussion

[2daBank]

even at 60 plays it really hard for me not to see something like 30 pass, debo 7-10, mitchell approaching 20. it conceivable jimmy throws more than 30 but think that is prob shanny goal if he can play it that way.. i think it would take a couple score lead in the second half to get them away from the run game, i know you like packers more than i do here so maybe it happens.

 

[2daBank]

maybe i should stick with debo but it kills me all a sudden he is 12-15 yards higher than i have had to take the last 2 months! maybe im being too rigid with that tho? fact is he got his most carries all year last week, playoffs shanny more likely to get it into his best players hands as much as possible and not worry bout wearing him down like he may have in the reg season!! there no doubt in my mind if debo gets 8 rushes he gonna go over 40 yards! and he could be in line for at least 10 once again!!!

 

[2daBank]

I’m on the under 19.5 attempts

is that you moving some these numbers? lol.. mitchell just went down to 18.5 and him and debo yards dropped a tad along with dillon, but jones went up..

 

[survive&advance]

even at 60 plays it really hard for me not to see something like 30 pass, debo 7-10, mitchell approaching 20. it conceivable jimmy throws more than 30 but think that is prob shanny goal if he can play it that way.. i think it would take a couple score lead in the second half to get them away from the run game, i know you like packers more than i do here so maybe it happens.

I agree with you. I made the line gb -4.5 so not like I am betting them here or anything but I def think there’s a lot of paths for the carries under. I’ll dig into deebo stuff now

 

[2daBank]

I agree with you. I made the line gb -4.5 so not like I am betting them here or anything but I def think there’s a lot of paths for the carries under. I’ll dig into deebo stuff now

he just dropped 2 yards to 38.5, think im gonna try to get on that soon, im real happy there as i came up with at least 8 carries and minimum 5ypc which would obviously be right at 40.

 

[2daBank]

any guesses on what the akers/michel split will be going forward?

 

[ScopeY]

any guesses on what the akers/michel split will be going forward?

Snaps were 53%/40% last week...I only see Akers getting more after each week. Maybe >60% this week?

 

[ScopeY]

@ScopeY can you help me out with something, i would like to know how often (if any) cincy lined chase up in the slot this year? im pretty confident boyd takes the majority of snaps there i just wanna make sure this isnt a likely possibility of happening a lot.. i really think boyd has a nice game from slot as that a pretty vulnerable area for titans

I'll see if I can find this for your but I'd guess Boyd is there atleast 80% of the time

 

[2daBank]

Snaps were 53%/40% last week...I only see Akers getting more after each week. Maybe >60% this week?

thinking same thing and his rush total is 48.5,, im not convinced Bucs run d is the stone wall it was last year, mostly teams havnt even tried them, i dont think mcvey will be deterred so easily..

 

[2daBank]

I'll see if I can find this for your but I'd guess Boyd is there atleast 80% of the time

yea i was thinking that too,,, dont trouble yourself too much, i was just making sure i didnt miss chase being in the slot anytime i wasnt watching or something,, i def think this a game boyd has to have a impact for cincy.. i love titans but not like cincy isnt gonna move the ball at all, i think boyd, mixon, and the te receiving yardage props are the place to be for bungals. dont think burrow have the time for as many downfield shots and i would think Vrabel will do some tricky things with his back 7 to try and take away chase and higgens to a extent..

 

[2daBank]

i dont think cincy coach is creative enough to all a sudden switch things up if that the way they have lined up all year.. i would def think bout putting chase in slot but maybe he not to that point in his career yet like a adams who can play anywhere.

 

[2daBank]

Here we go boys, hope I can come close to the success I had with yardage props last week again here!! (Prefer td scorers to be better!).,

Mixon under 60.5 rush
Tannenhill ov 14.5 rush
Boyd ov 45.5 rec
Mixon ov 21.5 rec
Henry to score/titans to win

That bout it for the 1st game, I’m so invested in titans I didn’t want to go crazy here and honestly don’t have the best feel for game script, I think it gonna be a lot of titans long drives to keep burrow on sideline but lm not sure who gonna get the yards. I want to like Henry over 83.5 rush, that number irrelevant really, it just a gamble whether he can handle 20 carries, I hope he can but I’m confident in other guys that have carried load while he was out also, I do think it a pretty good bet if they get to goalline he gonna get a few shots to get in!! After watching Akers last week and what he came back from I tend to think Henry gonna be just fine, he a freak of nature!!

Sf/gb

Mitchell to score +130
Debo to score ev
Adams to score -135

Adams ov 94.5 rec
Juszyzck ov 9.5 rec
Mitchell ov 80.5 rush
Debo ov 38.5 rush

So that pretty much it today. I have way more for 2marro games! Pretty sure I’ll have close to 15 or more in the buf/kc game and decent amount on rams/Bucs. I’ll post those later when I play them.

 

[2daBank]

Oh I forgot, Boyd to score is a great price, def worth a play at +275 (wanna get crazy parlay him with brate 2marro at +450 for sick payout! Lol). Anyways I think Boyd will have to be big for cincy today and titans are weak against the slot, he has scored in 4 straight games so not like he can’t get in the endzone, I really think titans look to take chase away and he should benefit. Almost 3 to 1 pretty awesome for guy who on a scoring hot streak!!

 

[skanless13]

oh wow, someone just hit jones rush yards over hard, he went up 5 yards while dillon fell down to 38.5, does somebody know something? i had just wrote jones over 48.5 down and it gets bet up! lol

Just a big key here imo. I expect a huge game out of him.

 

[2daBank]

Just a big key here imo. I expect a huge game out of him.

It really feels like a Dillon game to me, far as rushing goes, maybe Jones in passing game. I dunno, that why I just stayed away from both. Lol. I know what 2 guys gonna tote the rock for niners and pretty sure pack run d can be had.

 

[skanless13]

It really feels like a Dillon game to me, far as rushing goes, maybe Jones in passing game. I dunno, that why I just stayed away from both. Lol. I know what 2 guys gonna tote the rock for niners and pretty sure pack run d can be had.

Oh think Jones rushing. I played him at even odds to score a TD. Seems like a steal

 

[2daBank]

Oh think Jones rushing. I played him at even odds to score a TD. Seems like a steal

I hate taking any packers rbs to score. Double bitch such a glory hog, he loves those 1-2 yard td passes, lol.

 

[ScopeY]

SFO/CIN, Let's go! HAVE LAR/BUF to end it.

My only regret is not having more A. Jones despite knowing he'd be a ppr machine....but I went 100% SFO D in all my DFS lineups. As long as Josh Allen is the #1 qb I should have a solid shot near the top

 

[2daBank]

SFO/CIN, Let's go! HAVE LAR/BUF to end it.

My only regret is not having more A. Jones despite knowing he'd be a ppr machine....but I went 100% SFO D in all my DFS lineups. As long as Josh Allen is the #1 qb I should have a solid shot near the top

Nice. I used tits defense in most, not bad but not niners. How many points niners d get? I think I woulda been spot on bout it being a Dillon rush game, Jones receiving had Dillon not gotten hurt, it was def shaping up that way.

 

[2daBank]

Not a very good day for me, especially considering I was backwards with investing more on titans to win and less on props then doing the opposite with niners, of course it was backwards! Lol.

Anyways I will not be deterred, I kept it more balanced today, here the props I played.

2 team parlay +125

Stafford ov 1.5 td/Allen ov 1.5 pass td

Td scorers:

Obj +160
Akers +130
Kupp -135
Brate +450

Knox +175
Diggs +120
Allen +150

Rb/wr props

Akers ov 48.5 rush
Obj ov 3.5 receptions/ov 47.5 yards
Ty Johnson ov 33.5 rec yards

Singletary ov 2.5 receptions
Hill ov 5.5 receptions
Kelce ov 5.5 receptions
Diggs ov 70.5 ysrds
Pringle ov 33.5 rec yards
Mahomes ov 25.5 rush

Think that bout the jist of it. My thinking with hill and kelce receptions over yards is this season kc been seeing a ton the same kind of d bills gonna play keeping everything in front which has lead to hill yards per reception being way down so just thought it be wise to expect lot of short stuff. I avoided Gronk and brate just cause I’m afraid tampa might need te’s to be blockers to help control rams pass rush.

 

[Marsski]

Not a very good day for me, especially considering I was backwards with investing more on titans to win and less on props then doing the opposite with niners, of course it was backwards! Lol.

Anyways I will not be deterred, I kept it more balanced today, here the props I played.

2 team parlay +125

Stafford ov 1.5 td/Allen ov 1.5 pass td

Td scorers:

Obj +160
Akers +130
Kupp -135
Brate +450

Knox +175
Diggs +120
Allen +150

Rb/wr props

Akers ov 48.5 rush
Obj ov 3.5 receptions/ov 47.5 yards
Ty Johnson ov 33.5 rec yards

Singletary ov 2.5 receptions
Hill ov 5.5 receptions
Kelce ov 5.5 receptions
Diggs ov 70.5 ysrds
Pringle ov 33.5 rec yards
Mahomes ov 25.5 rush

Think that bout the jist of it. My thinking with hill and kelce receptions over yards is this season kc been seeing a ton the same kind of d bills gonna play keeping everything in front which has lead to hill yards per reception being way down so just thought it be wise to expect lot of short stuff. I avoided Gronk and brate just cause I’m afraid tampa might need te’s to be blockers to help control rams pass rush.

I'm on Akers RUSH yards over with ya. I agree that TB run D has slipped a notch and living off its rep. Also took Von Miller over 3.5 tackles given the OL situation for TB.

 

[2daBank]

I'm on Akers RUSH yards over with ya. I agree that TB run D has slipped a notch and living off its rep. Also took Von Miller over 3.5 tackles given the OL situation for TB.

I hope we right, very heavy on Akers! I don’t think bucs run d is bad by any stretch but fact is most teams simply havnt tried them! Jets went for 150 when they actually committed to the run vs them. Im pretty confident Mcvey is gonna run the ball 20+ times. Akers special, he gets 15 Carries he gonna get over 50 against them imo. I never had much success w defensive player props but that certainly makes sense. Gl to us!!

 

[2daBank]

I'm on Akers RUSH yards over with ya. I agree that TB run D has slipped a notch and living off its rep. Also took Von Miller over 3.5 tackles given the OL situation for TB.

I planned on playing his receiving total also but had a brain fart and realized when I got back home that wasn’t on a ticket. Lol

 

[bones]

I am interested in total sacks in TB/Rams - 4.5. Brady gets sacked 2-4 times? Stafford same? Any thoughts?

 

[2daBank]

I am interested in total sacks in TB/Rams - 4.5. Brady gets sacked 2-4 times? Stafford same? Any thoughts?

I just never play it, if I had sense woulda been biggest bet in titans game since that was whole reason I loved tits. I def think rams get pressure but I’m not sure they get him that many times? I would think they use gronk as blocker and get ball out fast. I dunno, like I said I just never play them and after not playing yesterday I’d feel silly today. Lol

 

[bones]

I just never play it, if I had sense woulda been biggest bet in titans game since that was whole reason I loved tits. I def think rams get pressure but I’m not sure they get him that many times? I would think they use gronk as blocker and get ball out fast. I dunno, like I said I just never play them and after not playing yesterday I’d feel silly today. Lol

My "eye" has seen Brady concede sacks more easily when he needs to do so. Seems as if Stafford always get sacked. Going to look up statistics

 

[2daBank]

My "eye" has seen Brady concede sacks more easily when he needs to do so. Seems as if Stafford always get sacked. Going to look up statistics

Makes sense. I remember titans sacked the shit out of Stafford when they played!!

 

[bones]

My "eye" has seen Brady concede sacks more easily when he needs to do so. Seems as if Stafford always get sacked. Going to look up statistics

I am wrong. Two of teams giving up least sacks. Same with Bills/Chiefs

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team QB Sacked per Game | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football qb sacked per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

1	Buffalo	1.5	0.3	0.0	1.2	1.9	1.8
1	Tampa Bay	1.5	2.0	4.0	1.9	1.1	1.4
3	New England	1.7	1.7	3.0	1.7	1.8	2.3
3	Kansas City	1.7	1.3	3.0	2.1	1.3	1.5
5	Minnesota	1.8	2.7	3.0	1.8	1.8	2.4
6	LA Rams	1.8	2.3	1.0	2.1	1.4	1.8
7	LA Chargers	1.8

 

[2daBank]

I am wrong. Two of teams giving up least sacks. Same with Bills/Chiefs

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team QB Sacked per Game | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football qb sacked per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

1	Buffalo	1.5	0.3	0.0	1.2	1.9	1.8
1	Tampa Bay	1.5	2.0	4.0	1.9	1.1	1.4
3	New England	1.7	1.7	3.0	1.7	1.8	2.3
3	Kansas City	1.7	1.3	3.0	2.1	1.3	1.5
5	Minnesota	1.8	2.7	3.0	1.8	1.8	2.4
6	LA Rams	1.8	2.3	1.0	2.1	1.4	1.8
7	LA Chargers	1.8

Good olines! Not sure bucs line will be as good today, eagles def got to Brady some last week with backup ends! But I just gotta think they will play w 2 te’s and keep them in to block if they have to. Plus Brady gets rid of fast! On other side I really believe Mcvey will go with a lot of the zone stretch run game today and play action off it, if the run successful Stafford should be pretty clean.

 

[ScopeY]

Nice. I used tits defense in most, not bad but not niners. How many points niners d get? I think I woulda been spot on bout it being a Dillon rush game, Jones receiving had Dillon not gotten hurt, it was def shaping up that way.

21!

 

[ScopeY]

I am wrong. Two of teams giving up least sacks. Same with Bills/Chiefs

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team QB Sacked per Game | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football qb sacked per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

1	Buffalo	1.5	0.3	0.0	1.2	1.9	1.8
1	Tampa Bay	1.5	2.0	4.0	1.9	1.1	1.4
3	New England	1.7	1.7	3.0	1.7	1.8	2.3
3	Kansas City	1.7	1.3	3.0	2.1	1.3	1.5
5	Minnesota	1.8	2.7	3.0	1.8	1.8	2.4
6	LA Rams	1.8	2.3	1.0	2.1	1.4	1.8
7	LA Chargers	1.8

Theme of playoffs (not really a theme)... but wildcard weekend, dallas had best rated Oline for ASR protection, and it was going against the best rated Dline for ASR (SFO) and the Dline proved better.... sacking dak 5 times..... TBB #1 of the 8, LAR #2 of the 8..... the 3 games where they probably went against the tougher Dlines in the league (LAR/NOS/NOS), brady was sacked 3 times, 3 times, 4 times.... and they lost every one of those games.

Just comments

 

[ScopeY]

Theme of playoffs (not really a theme)... but wildcard weekend, dallas had best rated Oline for ASR protection, and it was going against the best rated Dline for ASR (SFO) and the Dline proved better.... sacking dak 5 times..... TBB #1 of the 8, LAR #2 of the 8..... the 3 games where they probably went against the tougher Dlines in the league (LAR/NOS/NOS), brady was sacked 3 times, 3 times, 4 times.... and they lost every one of those games.

Just comments

I also believe rams didnt have miller by that point, and TBB Oline was healthier...

 

[2daBank]

I also believe rams didnt have miller by that point, and TBB Oline was healthier...

You are correct on both. No Miller and Bucs line way healthier then. I really think they gonna keep te’s or backs in to protect but we see how much it helps? Gotta think rams gonna be jumping short stuff!!! Miller looked really healthy and fresh last week! But we know what Brady really hates is that push inside that Donald gets!!

 

[ScopeY]

I also believe rams didnt have miller by that point, and TBB Oline was healthier...

AND note that this will be a quick paced game.... as well as looking back at last week, Bucs held a 2+ score lead from wire to wire pretty much and brady still threw it 37 times.... If you think this game will be closer than last week (in terms of rams not getting blown out - I personally think TBB will be playing from behind), how many opportunuties will the Rams get to pass rush brady? I'd say way more than 40....

 

[ScopeY]

Now I'm talking myself into something....

 

[ScopeY]

You already know I'm on LAR/BUF

but adding

R. Gronk Receptions O5.5 -145

D. Singletary Rush&Rec Yds O86.5 -115
B. Pringle Rec Yds O35.5 -110

 

[2daBank]

You already know I'm on LAR/BUF

but adding

R. Gronk Receptions O5.5 -145

D. Singletary Rush&Rec Yds O86.5 -115
B. Pringle Rec Yds O35.5 -110

I just worried they need Gronk to stay in and block the reason I avoided him. Like singletary a lot and on Pringle also,, gl buddy, on both those sides also.

 

[2daBank]

AND note that this will be a quick paced game.... as well as looking back at last week, Bucs held a 2+ score lead from wire to wire pretty much and brady still threw it 37 times.... If you think this game will be closer than last week (in terms of rams not getting blown out - I personally think TBB will be playing from behind), how many opportunuties will the Rams get to pass rush brady? I'd say way more than 40....

I def leaned Stafford under pass attempts, Brady over so on same page,

 

[Lexington 125]

Bills

Gabe davis o35.5 rec /rec o60+300/ anytime+250

I'd expect Diggs to get a ton of attention and Gabe is the other deep threat. Allen has been spreading the ball around but I think Gabe is in a spot here where he could break out.

Diggs- yds o69.5/ o100+270

By now everyone has seen the iconic pic of Diggs watching KC celebrating after winning the afc. LW he really wasn't needed and only played 60% of the offensive snaps. Daboll is not afraid to play the matchups and I'm sure the Pats spent a ton of time prepping for Diggs. Well this week I think he goes off. I'm hesitant about td but I think he'll be getting targeted and he's a big time player.

 

[Lexington 125]

McKenzie +350 anytime the other one I'm looking at. He's been steadily getting more involved and the kid is a playmaker.

 

[Lexington 125]

gabe 2 td @ +1500 might be worth a stab

 

[Timh]

GL Fellas - I played a couple props today.

Brady over 39.5 pass attempts -123 .5*
Fournette over 28.5 rec ydg. -108 .5*
Akers over 47.5 rush ydg. -120 .5*
Gronk over 65.5 rec ydg. -109 .5*
Gronk 1st TD +731 .5*
Fournette 1st TD +585 .5*

 

[Timh]

Pringle over 34.5 rec ydg -115 .5*
Singletary over 61.5 rushing ydg. -109 .5*
Diggs over 70.5 rec ydg. -123 .5*