Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
NYJ@JAC
Jets have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jags have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Rodgers has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Etienne~ has a good rush potential.
Jets TTR is 14th.
Jags TTR is 21st (meh).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 12th (meh).
- The Jets pass play % is top 5 in the league, and they are in a dream matchup, it is hard not to like Rodgers in tourneys at 5.4K. Obviously pairing him with at least 1 of Adams/Wilson is the move. I want to mention Hall is just 6.4K and practiced fully on friday, IF he is all systems go, he is egregiously cheap, I understand there is risk, but Hall is an interesting tourney play as well. I'd say pass on conklin but he is approaching floor price, b2b games with 5 targets, doesn't take much to get there in the 2K range.
No more Engram, Strange is the floor price, and probably a better option than Conklin above. In weeks 2 through 5 he hit a peak of 84% of snaps. But overall, in the last 4 weeks with Mac Jones, Engram garnered a 25% target share, that needs to be dispersed. I know Sauce is back, but a 26.5% target share/13.8 aDOT of Thomas's WITH Engram in was already really nice, and now it looks that much better (they were up to 30.5%/14.7 in the 2 games post bye), I have interest in him. Parker is a fine pivot if Thomas is going to be super popular.
BAL@NYG
Ravens have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Giants have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lamar has a great pass potential. Henry has a great rush potential.
DeVito has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Tracy has a bad rush potential.
Ravens TTR is 1st (great).
Giants TTR is 24th (bad/last).
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is T-10th (meh).
- If you are going to try and guess a pass catcher in this game, just do an onslaught stack, as they have the best TTR of the slate. But if you want to one-off, I think a naked Lamar, or a solo Henry is the smarter route. I obviously hate Henry's floor, but you have to think 1 TD is an absolute floor in this matchup.
Call me crazy, but DeVito is 4.4K, is going to be in a pass heavy script, and is playing a secondary that has been taken advantage of often, he's viable in tourneys imo. In his only start this year, Nabers had a 30% target share/9.7 aDOT, he is priced just in the 6K range, and no longer has an injury designation --- that's the mini game stack I'd take.
WAS@NOS
Commanders have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Saints have a great P/RB matchup.
Daniels has a good pass potential. Br. Robinson has a great rush potential.
Haener?? has a bad pressure rate situation. Kamara has a great rush potential.
Commanders TTR is 6th (good).
Saints TTR is 23rd (meh).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 8th.
- IF NOS can keep this within 2 positions, I think Br. Robinson needs to be considered, in his 2 games without ekeler, WAS blew out the competition, so he was limited, but he still managed 18~ FPs in both, averaging 20.5 opps (2 targets), the matchup is nice, and he doesn't break the bank. On the flip side, if you want to fade this in tourneys, and attack the passing options, we have a game with no Ekeler/no N. Brown, we know Daniels already has a nice rushing floor/ceiling potential. In the last 4 weeks alone, Ekeler/Brown combined for a 30%+ target share (despite not playing 100% of there normal snaps), McLaurin/Ertz are solid partner options for him, and maybe you drop one of them for the new WR2 (Luke/Dyami/Olamide --- I'd go luke or dyami first --- I'd also only do this in tourneys).
It is hard to not foresee Kamara getting close to 30~ opps, the problem is how efficient will they be? I know it was garbage time, but he little I saw of Haener I actually liked. If you think they are competent in this matchup you can find cheap stacks in the game, now I'd only even slightly consider it if mass entering, otherwise I am debating what kind of exposure I want to Kamara --- at the moment, I'd say underweight.
DAL@CAR
Cowboys have a great P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a great P/RB matchup.
Rush has a good pressure rate situation.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation. Hubbard has a great rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is T-17th.
Panthers TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 9th.
- Lamb has been ok with Rush, and maybe this is the better matchup Rush has faced, but we are paying top dollar for a WR that has just a 6.1 aDOT with this QB, not really in love. I think you could take the WR2/3s as salary saving punt options in multi entry tourneys but idk if I am. Don't mind Ferguson, he is probably to cheap for a 5+ target floor player that has some TD equity. Dowdle has seen his snaps rise in 4 straight games, hitting 77% last week, and having over 20 opps in 3 straight games (averaging 3.25 targets/g in the 4), at low 6Ks he is worthy of consideration.
The 3 guys behind Hubbard are all out. Last week he hit 97% of snaps, and had 31 opps (5 targets), this guy should be one of the most expensive backs on the slate, and yet he is just 6.5K, he probably will be heavily owned, but that shouldn't stop you. I'll continue to repeat it, but Bryce Youngs average depth per pass attempt to his players the last handful of weeks is night and day compared to the rest of his 1.5 year career. Over the last 2 weeks, all 3 of his WRs have atleast an aDOT of 11.5, and all 3 have play 75%+ of snaps. I genuinely think all 3 are viable based on their salaries. Thielen's 28% target share leads the group and who i'd lean, but if you need more salary relief, I don't mind going to legette or moore.
MIA@HOU
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Texans have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Tua has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Achane has a meh rush potential.
Mixon has a bad rush potential.
Dolphins TTR is 13th.
Texans TTR is 7th (good).
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- I don't mind Hill in a dome with his increased usage, but really Waddle in the 5K range with the same agruement/stats as hill is a joke. Again both either, but I like waddle much more. Pass on Joonu. Achane can get his, and I don't hate him if you have conviction, but he is to expensive with all the other backs in better situations (whether price or matchup wise).
Same with Achane, I don't hate Mixon, both of these guys are 20+ opp guys with PPR floors, but I'll most likely fade the price for now. I don't mind Collins, in his full 2 game return he has a 31.2% target share/9.7 aDOT, but for tourneys I'd rather take a shot on the very cheap Dell, Since Collins return, he has a huge 24.4 aDOT, and is ripe for a ceiling game/hr hit.
CIN@TEN
Bengals have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Burrow has a great pass potential. Brown has a meh rush potential.
Bengals TTR is 5th (good).
Titans TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 14th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- We hate the pace of the game, and the matchup vs TEN D, but how do you not love CIN options? They've practically abandoned the run game, in a neutral to positive run script last week Burrow still threw the ball 44 times. Over the last 3 games they are under a 30% rush play%. I thnk any of Brown/Chase/Higgins are viable.
I'll continue to say it too, but Ridley in 5K range is so mispriced. L5 with Levis he has a 28% target share WITH a 14.8 aDOT. Ikhine is fine, but his gap in price from Ridley doesn't seem far enough. Pollard comes in with a Q tag, and is a bit overpriced for seeing his snaps drop in 3 straight with the return of Spears, pass.
KCC@CLV
Chiefs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Winston has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential. Chubb???? has a bad rush potential.
Chiefs TTR is T-8th (good).
Browns TTR is T-17th.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is T-6th.
- 2 striaght games of Pachecos return he has not hit 50% of snaps yet. BUT he had 18 opps (4 targets) last week. If we get a week of him at 60%+ he could be a steal at 6K. I'd reserve for multi entry tourneys. I want to be able to trust Hopkins, he is limited in snaps, yet still has a 19% target share in his L4, with a good 13.5 aDOT, it's not a bad play in the 5K range, but I obviously can see disappointment too, not sure yet. Worthy hit over 80% of snaps last week, and if that's here to stay, I love him in the 5K range too. I hate that both TEs combine for a 35%~ target share, while Kelce is great in PPR formats recently, I don't love him, and don't mind a punt option in Gray --- if Kelce gets hurt, he could be a playoff winner if you have the space/shitty TE.
We expect Winston to continue to sling that thing, in his 4 games since the bye, he has finished as a QB1 (top 12) 3 times, and has more than 3x'd this salary in 3 of them, in 5 of his 6 starts he's hit at least 41 pass attempts. If Njoku sits, 26.5% of his target share since the bye has to be dispersed, as well as Tillmans 7% (over 2 of those gameS). We already know there is high volume here, Jeudy is viable, Moore is viable, and Akins if no Njoku is a salary saving option. Chubb is unplayable unless you think CLV leads, which we will see when that happens. Ford in the 4K range is fine as a punt where multi entering, he saw 14 opps last week.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
BUF@DET
Bills have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lions have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation.
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Montgom/Gibbs have a good rush potential.
Bills TTR is T-3rd (good).
Lions TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great --- a big 7.5 points more than the 2nd highest O/U)
- 80-100% of the field will be stacking/attacking/having a piece of this game. If you want to go all in and fade and it is successful, you could make a lot of money. Obviously if you miss, you have also lost it all, perfect tourney conundrum. I know Shakir is stealing the show, and Cooper is being Hopkins'd too, but even on 50%~ of snaps, Coopers last 2 weeks are actually better. He has a 31% target share still, to Shakirs 27%, and a better aDOT of 15.6 compared to 9.9. Do I think both are viable? Sure. But if I am one-offing, I like the cheaper price in Cooper more. I will note Kincaids return could lower some ceilings but still don't hate them. Cooks snaps hasn't hit over 50% since week 10, and haven't been over 55% since before his 1 week absence week 6, I can't trust it.
Feel like this is a game that will rarely result in a positive run script game flow (2+ possession lead), so that leaves Gibbs as a high ceiling threat. You know how I feel about Montgomery in PPR sites, pass. Goffs average depth per attempt has dropped some the last 3 weeks, only ASB is above 10 at 10.25. I still think Jameson is more valuable when looking at prices, but not really in love with either. LaPorta has played 90%+ of snaps in his L3, and has a 18% target share, with 7 RZ targets in them, he may go overlooked, but I love him at 4.4K.
NEP@ARI
Pats have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Cards have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Conner has a good rush potential.
Pats TTR is T-17th.
Cards TTR is T-3rd (good).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 4th.
- Stevenson is a bellcow that is still in the 5K range, always a consideration. Henry is another TE I love, since Bournes return (L3 games), he has a 25% target share, with a decent TE aDOT of 7.8, he's cheap in the 4K range. Bouute is the only WR I'd consider, he is near the top in target share among them, and has the best aDOT, while playing the most snaps by far.
Conner is a safe play with ppr safety, he doesn't exude love, but I'm fine with it if you want to go there. Harrison is SO mispriced.... since the bye he has just a 22.5% target share (which is still fine), but accompanied with a 12.9 aDOT., at 5.5K it's insane. McBride has a huge 35.6% target share, but his aDOT of 4 is meh, still no TE on this slate comes with a better floor/ceiling combo, just can't justify going to Kelce/Joonu when he is not much more expensive.
PIT@PHI
Steelers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a bad P/RB matchup.
Russ has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Najee has a meh rush potential.
Hurts has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Steelers TTR is 22nd (meh).
Eagles TTR is T-8th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is T-10th (meh).
- I can't ever take Najee when both backs are playing. He has had 2 of his last 5 games with 0 targets, and 3 of those games his snaps were under 50%. I know they didn't have to throw last week, but this WR core is insanely spread out, I believe 5? saw snaps, only Van Jefferson hit above 55% (yet saw just 1 target), the WR2 in snaps wasn't even Austin or Williams, it was Scotty Miller... they are all cheap, and you have to think this could be a more pass friendly script, but who do we even go to? Muth is ok option, he had a big 10.6 aDOT, but his 12.5% target share is whatever.
The only argument for Barkley is his super low projected ownership, but slate breaking upside. The matchup is as tough as can be, the script may not be as favorable as past matchups, he is coming off a "down" performance (no TDs, no catches, yet still hit over 17 FPs), I think he is a good contrarian play. Can't play Brown at 8K... I think Smith at 5.5K is viable, he had a 31.5% target shar last week, and still no Goedert.
IND@DEN
Colts have a bad P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a meh P/RB matchup.
Richardson has a bad pass potential. Taylor has a bad rush potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Jav. Williams???? has a meh rush potential.
Colts TTR is T-17th.
Broncos TTR is T-8th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- AR is averaging 10~ carries/g, and a rush TD/g in his 3 games post return, that almost 2x's his salary with 0 passing points. I think he is viable in the 5K range. Taylor is a bellcow, and it's not seeing him below 7K, but I think his TD equity is lower, and he hasn't had more than 1 target in these games with AR, I have to pass. Another WR that is too cheap, Pittman has a 28.5% target shar with AR, and an 11 aDOT, the others can get there/beat him in FPs, but he is to cheap to consider the others.
Nix is price is starting to climb, and in his L4 he barely rushes anymore, I think he can get there through the air, but I don't love it as much. They're cheap, but eff this backfield. all the WR2's and on rotate playing time, and every once in awhile 1 goes over 50% of snaps, but vele/liljordan/franklin all have done it, I think I'd pass on all of them, Mims opps have been steady of late, maybe he is worth a dart where mass entering, idk. Anyways, I talked about how Nix rushing floor has subsided, but that has translated really well for Sutton, in his L4 he has a 28% target share, and 12.9 aDOT, both are good, and he can be considerd.
TBB@LAC
Bucs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Chargers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Herbert has a good pass potential.
Bucs TTR is 15th.
Chargers TTR is 11th (good).
Pace of play is 16th (meh). O/U Rank is 5th.
- With Bucky in, pass on both, if he's out, White all the way. McMillian has hit over 75% of snaps the L2, but he still is 4th in target share in those games, don;'t think I can trust him, but he is 3K range. Evans has had a 27.4% target share with a 12.5 aDOT, and we know the passing volume is typically higher with TBB, he's expensive but I don't hate him. Otton is fine, but I like others.
Can't trust the backfield, Vidal led in snaps last week. Smart is almost floor price, and dissly is out, he had a 14.7 aDOT on 3 targets last week, and should see a big tick up in snaps. McConkey out led Palmer to have a huge 31% target share/15.4 aDOT, if McConkey is out again, I am hammering Palmer. QJ is fine too, 24%/10.2, but Palmer is cheaper and had better metrics. With McConkey in, all this levels down for them.
