NFL Divisional Weekend DFS/Props Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
Sorry was a bit MIA last week.....

Fun Facts.....
The top 5 ALY matchups (for offenses) all won (TBB/KCC/BUF/LAR/SFO), and number 8 (CIN)
The top 5 defensive line teams at best ALY push won last week (SFO/BUF/TBB/LAR/CIN), as well as the 12th one (KCC).
The top 4 offensive line teams at ASRate won (TBB/BUF/KCC/LAR), as well as number 9/12 (SFO/CIN).

The O/U's are virtually the same for 2nd-4th, the top O/U is the game to get most of your stacks from (BUF/KCC)

Getting the foundation down, will update as the week goes on!

Let's get it.

Saturday Slate

CIN/TEN

CIN DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is 3rd. CIN TTotal is 7th, TEN TTotal is 5th.
Burrow has the 8th ranked ASR matchup (Ie. worst), Tanny has the 7th ranked ASR matchup (2nd worst).
Mixon has the 4th rated ALY matchup, Henry? has the 7th best.

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Looks fine.

SFO/GBP

SFO DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is 4th. SFO TTotal is 8th, GBP TTotal is 2nd.
Rodgers has the 6th ranked ASR matchup (3rd worst). Garop has the 5th ranked (4th worst).
Mitchell has the 2nd rated ALY push, Jones/Dillon have the 6th best.

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Cold, looks fine though.

Sunday Slate

LAR/TBB

LAR DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D..
TBB DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U is 2nd. LAR TTotal is 6th, TBB TTotal is T-3rd.
Brady has the 2nd best ASR matchup. Stafford has the 3rd best.
Fournette? has the 3rd best ALY matchup. Akers? has the 5th best.

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Looks fine.

BUF/KCC

BUF DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
KCC DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U is 1st. BUF TTotal is T-3rd, KCC TTotal is 1st.
Mahomes has the 4th best ASR matchup. Allen has the best ASR matchup.
McKinnon? has the worst ALY matchup. Singletary has the best ALY matchup.

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Looks Fine
 
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1st play of the week:

Obj to score +160

It crazy we keep getting these kinda prices on him (20 cents more than last week!) take away 1st game he wasn’t involved much yet and he had scored in 6 of 8 as a ram. Bucs not gonna see Monday night and decide to shift coverage to him and away from Kupp!! Kupp will keep drawing the most attention and Stafford will keep looking obj way in the endzone!!

Be warned of my 8-9 on td props last week I was 1-5 or 6 on the ones I played early, lol. Maybe I should wait? But I did get best of price in 4 of them! The 1 I didht, you guessed it the one that cashed (debo), I’ve always insisted beating the close a bit overrated, lol.
 
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ProV1Colt said:
I might wait to see if there are any Henry props…..
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I already see him to score a td, think it was -150 tho, kinda steep for not being sure he in game shape. He looked pretty good and Vrabel was working his ass in practice from the footage I saw today!! Good chance I look to play the Henry to score:titans to win prop. Actually Im lying, I rather lay the points with titans, don’t see any reason to overpay, then maybe I’ll just find something else to parlay Henry to score with. I don’t have any yardage yet, I hope they come with some silly numbers like Akers the other day (25.5! Lol).
 
ProV1Colt said:
I might wait to see if there are any Henry props…..
Click to expand...
This feels like something that could be great as a live play.

Played Ben yards over live last week and should of played completions tbh...

Back to Henry... The reason I say live is so we can get a feel for how he will be used... also, score dictates, no doubt.
 
Dragos said:
You did 41 last week ?
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That was number I came up with. I know I posted at least 35 in last weeks thread. Didht put the Monday night game in there tho, and think I prob just forgot a few cause I was posting them from memory after I left casino. I’m sure i posted them all someplace or another. Lol. You shoulda seen the stack of tickets i left the casino with Sunday morning! That was def the most I ever had at 1x!
 
B.A.R. said:
This feels like something that could be great as a live play.

Played Ben yards over live last week and should of played completions tbh...

Back to Henry... The reason I say live is so we can get a feel for how he will be used... also, score dictates, no doubt.
Click to expand...

Kinda like Akers Monday night.
 
ScopeY said:
Sorry was a bit MIA last week.....

Fun Facts.....
The top 5 ALY matchups (for offenses) all won (TBB/KCC/BUF/LAR/SFO), and number 8 (CIN)
The top 5 defensive line teams at best ALY push won last week (SFO/BUF/TBB/LAR/CIN), as well as the 12th one (KCC).
The top 4 offensive line teams at ASRate won (TBB/BUF/KCC/LAR), as well as number 9/12 (SFO/CIN).

The O/U's are virtually the same for 2nd-4th, the top O/U is the game to get most of your stacks from (BUF/KCC)

Getting the foundation down, will update as the week goes on!

Let's get it.

Saturday Slate

CIN/TEN

CIN DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is 3rd. CIN TTotal is 7th, TEN TTotal is 5th.
Burrow has the 8th ranked ASR matchup (Ie. worst), Tanny has the 7th ranked ASR matchup (2nd worst).
Mixon has the 4th rated ALY matchup, Henry? has the 7th best.

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Looks fine.

SFO/GBP

SFO DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is 4th. SFO TTotal is 8th, GBP TTotal is 2nd.
Rodgers has the 6th ranked ASR matchup (3rd worst). Garop has the 5th ranked (4th worst).
Mitchell has the 2nd rated ALY push, Jones/Dillon have the 6th best.

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Cold, looks fine though.

Sunday Slate

LAR/TBB

LAR DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D..
TBB DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U is 2nd. LAR TTotal is 6th, TBB TTotal is T-3rd.
Brady has the 2nd best ASR matchup. Stafford has the 3rd best.
Fournette? has the 3rd best ALY matchup. Akers? has the 5th best.

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Looks fine.

BUF/KCC

BUF DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
KCC DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U is 1st. BUF TTotal is T-3rd, KCC TTotal is 1st.
Mahomes has the 4th best ASR matchup. Allen has the best ASR matchup.
McKinnon? has the worst ALY matchup. Singletary has the best ALY matchup.

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Looks Fine
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Updated all criteria minus injury statuses.

Just from the outside looking in... it's hard not to like BUF, and SFO (Although I know they have injuries).

I will note, the top 4 teams remaining in pace, that are in the top half of the league, are all playing eachother (TBB/LAR, BUF/KCC), and the bot 4 teams in pace, and at the bot of the league, are obviously all playing eachother (GBP/SFO, CIN/TEN)..... so if doing a full weekend slate, stack the top 2 games, and take one offs in the bottom 2.

Here's a snippet of the ASR/ALY info if you want to see the %'s, and/or Yardage.

1642626452921.png
 
ScopeY said:
Updated all criteria minus injury statuses.

Just from the outside looking in... it's hard not to like BUF, and SFO (Although I know they have injuries).

I will note, the top 4 teams remaining in pace, that are in the top half of the league, are all playing eachother (TBB/LAR, BUF/KCC), and the bot 4 teams in pace, and at the bot of the league, are obviously all playing eachother (GBP/SFO, CIN/TEN)..... so if doing a full weekend slate, stack the top 2 games, and take one offs in the bottom 2.

Here's a snippet of the ASR/ALY info if you want to see the %'s, and/or Yardage.

View attachment 61419
Click to expand...

lines up with what i was thinking, like bills, and i would san fran if we get some good news on the injury front during the week.. not only is saf fran gonna beat them up at the LOS but they also the best in the league at 6.1 ypp and have the best differential as well. long as i can remember that been a favorite stat for sharps.. packers points margin isnt all that impressive for a team with their record and they got 6 games vs the scrubs of the nfc north,, i really dont get all the gb love, it not like they have a strong history as favs at home in the playoffs!! if wasnt for the niners getting so banged up last week i would be unloading ats and sprinkling the ml also!!! just gotta hope we get some good news later in week!! i know one thing for sure, ill be loaded up on debo props once again!! i think bills/kc is really kinda a coin flip, should be a great game but i like bills d and their new found run game with singletary, think those things give them a edge and they plus money!! ill def be more invested in props than the side tho, should be a great game for those!!
 
skanless13 said:
Crazy. Do you moonlight as train69 over at blankets?
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i never liked blankets, dunno what it was, format, the ppl, whatever,, when i 1st discovered gambling forum world a good 12-13 years ago i singed up there, at sbr, couple others, and here not long after.. i was drawn to sbr at 1st and i posted there a ton for a long time, i enjoyed reading this place cause there were a lot of knowledgeable guys who shared a lot of great info, especially on ncaa, i was amazed how i could come here in august and read threads with guys who been talking recruits and spring football all season!! was a great way to get a feel heading into the season!! this place felt a little more tight nit with far less traffic than sbr so i kinda took my time and would just put my toes in the water. my legend grew at sbr (joking, lol) but man that place a sewer, i liked there were more ppl to talk to be the amount of garbage you have to put up with to find intelligent guys to talk to is insane, they dont moderate it much and while i thought i liked that i learned you have to have better moderation of your threads get destroyed with nonsense from some loser who clearly must have tailed a losing play and now hates you for life as they have no personal responsibility (much like dak blaming the refs!). anyways i got more and more comfy here during that time and while less ppl to talk to the ratio of posters worth talking with is fucking amazing here!! as in i respect pretty much every guy who post here regularly!! i will only tell ppl i really like about this place cause i dont want any the tards finding it!! although i recall one moron from sbr finding me here this year and the mods got rid of him within a day!! second time that happened as few years back i recall bar asking me what the deal with some mental midget that came here and started stalking!!

that was a super long answer to say no.. is that a insult or compliment?
 
GB weather according to Accuweather, hypothermia lmao

NIGHT​

3°Lo
RealFeel® -5°
1/22
Partly cloudy and very cold; hypothermia likely without protective clothing
WindWNW 7 mph
Wind Gusts18 mph
Probability of Precipitation8%
Probability of Thunderstorms0%
Precipitation0.00 in
Cloud Cover65%
 
2daBank said:
i never liked blankets, dunno what it was, format, the ppl, whatever,, when i 1st discovered gambling forum world a good 12-13 years ago i singed up there, at sbr, couple others, and here not long after.. i was drawn to sbr at 1st and i posted there a ton for a long time, i enjoyed reading this place cause there were a lot of knowledgeable guys who shared a lot of great info, especially on ncaa, i was amazed how i could come here in august and read threads with guys who been talking recruits and spring football all season!! was a great way to get a feel heading into the season!! this place felt a little more tight nit with far less traffic than sbr so i kinda took my time and would just put my toes in the water. my legend grew at sbr (joking, lol) but man that place a sewer, i liked there were more ppl to talk to be the amount of garbage you have to put up with to find intelligent guys to talk to is insane, they dont moderate it much and while i thought i liked that i learned you have to have better moderation of your threads get destroyed with nonsense from some loser who clearly must have tailed a losing play and now hates you for life as they have no personal responsibility (much like dak blaming the refs!). anyways i got more and more comfy here during that time and while less ppl to talk to the ratio of posters worth talking with is fucking amazing here!! as in i respect pretty much every guy who post here regularly!! i will only tell ppl i really like about this place cause i dont want any the tards finding it!! although i recall one moron from sbr finding me here this year and the mods got rid of him within a day!! second time that happened as few years back i recall bar asking me what the deal with some mental midget that came here and started stalking!!

that was a super long answer to say no.. is that a insult or compliment?
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There’s some good guys at blankets, but you have to weed through so much immature BS. It’s crazy. The way I see it, blankets is like jr high, ctg is grad school
 
skanless13 said:
There’s some good guys at blankets, but you have to weed through so much immature BS. It’s crazy. The way I see it, blankets is like jr high, ctg is grad school
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same thing at sbr, i couldnt handle 2 places like that, i liked sbr format better, and had a few friends there so that just where i posted and while i tried few times at covers didnt really like it.. now that i think about it train69 had a pretty decent following/solid capper didnt he? wanna say he musta been there a long time cause think i remember seeing threads by him..
 
2daBank said:
same thing at sbr, i couldnt handle 2 places like that, i liked sbr format better, and had a few friends there so that just where i posted and while i tried few times at covers didnt really like it.. now that i think about it train69 had a pretty decent following/solid capper didnt he? wanna say he musta been there a long time cause think i remember seeing threads by him..
Click to expand...
Yep. He’s actually a tout there now. Part of their for pay service.
 
skanless13 said:
And not an insult. He’s just a guy who plays a LOT of games each day. A LOT
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right on,, ive always been more a volume better, hanvt been playing ncaa hoops this year but it was never anything for me to play 5-7 a night and 12-20+ om the weekend.. baseball i play anywhere from 3-7ish daily, ncaa football i tried to scale back a tough but still most saturdays were anywhere from 6-20!! nfl i scaled back to hardly playing any sides, 5 by far the most i played any week after early on and mostly more like 2-3 tops but props have really stepped the best up, id say most sundays i prob played 15-20,, this was easily the most i played and in 6 games!! lol.. I certainly dont regret it, i went something like 28-13 so im gonna keep playing every one i think has merit or value!!
 
Back to @ScopeY work, I'm kinda digging value that will be on Singletary in this one. Bills will undoubtedly do their best to keep Pat and co. on the sideline and should have some success in doing it.
 
skanless13 said:
Yep. He’s actually a tout there now. Part of their for pay service.
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oh man, that a shame, i could never sell my plays, whenever i had real popular threads at sbr i hated that ppl would blindly tail then and it killed me when i lost, just cant imagine charging someone for a freaking game they can flip a quarter and decide for themselves!!! i have had few ppl over the years that would back me with their money and i would handle betting it and we split the winnings. im not sure that really the same or not?
 
KJ said:
Back to @ScopeY work, I'm kinda digging value that will be on Singletary in this one. Bills will undoubtedly do their best to keep Pat and co. on the sideline and should have some success in doing it.
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i been loving singletary props the last 3-4 weeks, pissed me off he got one his catches taken off cause a penalty on pats and missed his receiving by 2 yards.. hit rush and td tho. depends where the number is of course, i havnt seen any yardage props yet, have you?
 
KJ said:
GB weather according to Accuweather, hypothermia lmao

NIGHT​

3°Lo
RealFeel® -5°
1/22
Partly cloudy and very cold; hypothermia likely without protective clothing
WindWNW 7 mph
Wind Gusts18 mph
Probability of Precipitation8%
Probability of Thunderstorms0%
Precipitation0.00 in
Cloud Cover65%
Click to expand...

i think our resident niners fan a little crazy he was happy it was a night game and gonna be really cold!! i dont care niners have some big10 guys who like cold, they dont play in it real often and personally i think it a lot worse when you not used to it.. packers live in that shit every day so im sure it a adv for them. not that run game and defense dont travel in any weather, i dont think it a death sentence for niners but i woulda been perfectly happy seeing 35 degrees!! lol.. still gonna be all over debo rush props and prob to score a td, he such a bad mofo! the size, speed are amazing in themselves but his vision and way he sets up his blockers is next level awesome imo!!
 
2daBank said:
oh man, that a shame, i could never sell my plays, whenever i had real popular threads at sbr i hated that ppl would blindly tail then and it killed me when i lost, just cant imagine charging someone for a freaking game they can flip a quarter and decide for themselves!!! i have had few ppl over the years that would back me with their money and i would handle betting it and we split the winnings. im not sure that really the same or not?
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Me neither. Fuck that.
 
skanless13 said:
Me neither. Fuck that.
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Every Sunday morning local espn radio sells a hour show to some miserable pos tout, it always on the exact time I go to casino so find myself listening to this idiot every week trying to sell ppl, it seriously the most disgusting garbage, I can’t believe ppl actually hear this moron talk and then pay him!!! The shit he says, my god it like a comedy hour to me but it fucking sick that I’m sure some degen losers actually believe it and this clown bankrupts them! I imagine he has to actually sell his crap picks or he wouldn’t be able to afford the radio spot right? Just crazy to me.
 
2daBank said:
Every Sunday morning local espn radio sells a hour show to some miserable pos tout, it always on the exact time I go to casino so find myself listening to this idiot every week trying to sell ppl, it seriously the most disgusting garbage, I can’t believe ppl actually hear this moron talk and then pay him!!! The shit he says, my god it like a comedy hour to me but it fucking sick that I’m sure some degen losers actually believe it and this clown bankrupts them! I imagine he has to actually sell his crap picks or he wouldn’t be able to afford the radio spot right? Just crazy to me.
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maybe you should reach out to ESPN radio to see if you can get an hour spot for yourself -- during your drive in to the Casino !!
 
teejay said:
maybe you should reach out to ESPN radio to see if you can get an hour spot for yourself -- during your drive in to the Casino !!
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Only a 10 min drive, lol. I don’t think I be very good on radio anyways, maybe it can just be a 10 min spot telling everyone listening to not call that guy and not pay him anything cause I promise he doesn’t have any “secret info” and they could just as easily flip a coin and bet it themselves! Better yet just log on to capping the game and read stuff by ppl who don’t want your money and I’m sure are every bit as good of cappers as this clown!!

I love his partner that says “you have no chance of winning if you bet these yourself! Sharp money, square money, our alga-rhythm, our teams of ppl that have crystal balls, blah blah blah, without us you have no chance but we have all the answers”, I dunno how they even say this shit with a straight face, of course it radio so maybe they don’t, could be they smirking their asses off trying to hold back laughs!!
 
I havnt locked anything in yet besides obj to score +160, just starting to look at all the yardage props and specials, DK has obj ov 74.5 rec yards and a td at +550, that feels like a pretty good price to me, he has only went over that yardage twice since coming to rams but I think a couple things true that working in his favor. I have no doubt Stafford gonna have to throw more than last week, and I would think bucs are gonna pay a lot of attention to Kupp. 2marro gonna spend my day working on all these. I already have numbers wrote down for lot of guys but these guys so slow and sporadic with putting these props out I just noticed they have several out now but still missing a lot of guys also. Anyways I plan on making most my plays 2marro so will post as I figure it all out.
 
2daBank said:
Every Sunday morning local espn radio sells a hour show to some miserable pos tout, it always on the exact time I go to casino so find myself listening to this idiot every week trying to sell ppl, it seriously the most disgusting garbage, I can’t believe ppl actually hear this moron talk and then pay him!!! The shit he says, my god it like a comedy hour to me but it fucking sick that I’m sure some degen losers actually believe it and this clown bankrupts them! I imagine he has to actually sell his crap picks or he wouldn’t be able to afford the radio spot right? Just crazy to me.
Click to expand...
I’ve heard that guy. Sounds like a fucking wannabe mob member.
 
Cold temps in GB, Mitchell 20+ carries every game since he came back, SF trying to keep Rodgers off the field. I haven't checked his props but I will. Also like him on DK at $5,800.
 
aplous said:
Cold temps in GB, Mitchell 20+ carries every game since he came back, SF trying to keep Rodgers off the field. I haven't checked his props but I will. Also like him on DK at $5,800.
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i have been playing debo rush prop pretty much every week going back to when shanny started using him but they made him a good 12-15 yards higher than he mostly been over that time, on other hand at the moment we can get mitchell at 80.5 and he has went over that total in 7 of last 9 he played and one of those i believe he wasnt healthy, only time he got his carries and went under that was against sea in week 13 where he had 22 carries but only 66 yards, went over it twice vs rams who i think tougher to run on than gb. think i saw his attempts at 19.5 and he has went over that the last 6 games he has played! you def on to something, ill be invested in mitchell for sure!
 
DK has some really cool options this week, im trying to focus in on one game at a time then i see stuff like "pick this group of 3 guys to score 2tds or 4 guys to score 3tds" and my head starts spinning!! lol.. im def gonna try to find a few of those i like at a nice plus number!! just have to find the combo they offer that i like best!!!
 
these wussies still havnt posted any rush numbers for titans cept tannenhill (i do think him ov 13.5 might be a decent play)..
 
i think we gotta really look at mixon under 60.5 rush yards. cincy has turned into a total passing team the last month + and after being great early on mixon has has struggled to even reach 3.5 ypc the last 6 games and only went over this total once (65 yards against ravens where it was a blowout and think he got some yards late trying to end the game). titans been one the best teams all year at stopping teams run games holding them to 3.9 per carry overall but the rb's a even better 3.7 per carry.
 
aplous said:
Cold temps in GB, Mitchell 20+ carries every game since he came back, SF trying to keep Rodgers off the field. I haven't checked his props but I will. Also like him on DK at $5,800.
Click to expand...
Yep, Mitchell/Singletary will be priorities for me
 
ScopeY said:
Yep, Mitchell/Singletary will be priorities for me
Click to expand...

im really trying to figure out the distribution for packers with jones/dillon, i feel like they have used dillon quite a bit in the past in really cold or snow games, i think his style of running is prob well suited but with no snow im not sure temps make a difference (imo he takes more short choppy steps).. obviously dillon got more carries when jones got hurt but still played most those games, really hard to figure for me but i think im confident dillon gets at least 9-10 carries (his attempts number is 10.5) and it could be higher, his rush total is only 40.5 which i feel like has a lot of value if he get that amount of carries. then again Jones number is only 48.5 and if you take away the 4 game stretch he wasnt healthy he has went over that basically every game, even the last 3 he played (sat out the meaningless lions game) with 13-12-8 attempts (8 was the blowout of vikings) he went over that number easily.. i know one these guys going over these numbers, maybe both but id like to just be on the best option/guy who gets the most carries!!
 
2daBank said:
im really trying to figure out the distribution for packers with jones/dillon, i feel like they have used dillon quite a bit in the past in really cold or snow games, i think his style of running is prob well suited but with no snow im not sure temps make a difference (imo he takes more short choppy steps).. obviously dillon got more carries when jones got hurt but still played most those games, really hard to figure for me but i think im confident dillon gets at least 9-10 carries (his attempts number is 10.5) and it could be higher, his rush total is only 40.5 which i feel like has a lot of value if he get that amount of carries. then again Jones number is only 48.5 and if you take away the 4 game stretch he wasnt healthy he has went over that basically every game, even the last 3 he played (sat out the meaningless lions game) with 13-12-8 attempts (8 was the blowout of vikings) he went over that number easily.. i know one these guys going over these numbers, maybe both but id like to just be on the best option/guy who gets the most carries!!
Click to expand...

From Week 10 to now, when both have played, neither has been under 40%, and jones was over 60% once.... they're in a split. Jones for PPR, maybe Dillon for rush TD equity?
 
ScopeY said:
From Week 10 to now, when both have played, neither has been under 40%, and jones was over 60% once.... they're in a split. Jones for PPR, maybe Dillon for rush TD equity?
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i havnt even thought bout in dfs terms yet, trying to nail down yardages. i dont think im gonna play either to score, obviously one has a pretty good chance of doing so but the last 6 weeks niners have been incredibly stingy keeping running backs out the end zone, throw in rodgers loving to throw them 1-2 yard td passes and just not wanting any money on the backs scoring,, their yardage props way more interesting to me, they dont even have a receiving number up for dillan so i def agree Jones is the man for ppr purposes.
 
@ScopeY can you help me out with something, i would like to know how often (if any) cincy lined chase up in the slot this year? im pretty confident boyd takes the majority of snaps there i just wanna make sure this isnt a likely possibility of happening a lot.. i really think boyd has a nice game from slot as that a pretty vulnerable area for titans
 
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2daBank said:
you gotta explain that one to me, i dont get it..
Click to expand...
Lot of avenues for this to go under imo. GB plays very slow so I expect limited possessions overall. Deebo could get a decent amount of carries again. SF could be playing from behind. Long story short I think the variables make this go under more than 55% of the time
 
oh wow, someone just hit jones rush yards over hard, he went up 5 yards while dillon fell down to 38.5, does somebody know something? i had just wrote jones over 48.5 down and it gets bet up! lol
 
survive&advance said:
Lot of avenues for this to go under imo. GB plays very slow so I expect limited possessions overall. Deebo could get a decent amount of carries again. SF could be playing from behind. Long story short I think the variables make this go under more than 55% of the time
Click to expand...

i have a hard time getting to that number but i think you getting plus money so it profitable even if that is high.. i expected you to say niners playing from behind, they both pretty deliberate so it def stands to reason about 60 plays each a strong possibility, good point.. it makes me look harder at his yardage prop cause i was def basing it off 20 carries, thing is he really doent need that many considering what packers give up per rush.
 
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