NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Discussion

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[TD="class: nfl-play2, align: center"]New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
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[TD="class: nfl-play-hd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, colspan: 3, align: center"]Sunday, Jan. 12, 2014 - 1:05 p.m. ET, FOX[/TD]
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[TD="class: nfl-play2, align: center"]San Francisco 49er at Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
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[TD="class: nfl-play-hd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, colspan: 3, align: center"]Saturday, Jan. 11, 2014 - 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS[/TD]
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[TD="class: nfl-play2, align: center"]Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
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[TD="class: nfl-play-hd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, colspan: 3, align: center"]Sunday, Jan. 12, 2014 - 4:40 p.m. ET, CBS[/TD]
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[TD="class: nfl-play2, align: center"]San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

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Books somewhat took it in the sphincter this weekend.

Divisionals should be sharp.
 
Last week was a good example of getting a good line early (KC and SF). If you think you know which way a line is going pounce on it, assuming you're guessing correctly. Seattle is good at home but you can't discount the playoff experience Brees/Payton and the Saints bring. I think it settles to 7.
 
Yeah. Lines were tight this weekend and they'll only get tighter. 3 outta 4 games were a toss-up as to who covers in the final 5 minutes, only spread that was a non-contest was the Bolts and they were the dog.
 
Speaking of the Bolts - I'm kicking myself for not playing them at +4400 24 hours ago to win it all - but at +2000 I still see some decent value there if you think they have a shot at winning this weekend.

Unless my mind is playing tricks on me, the divisional round is historically dominated big time by the home teams. If anyone has some ATS number from this round over time I'd love to see them. Public tends to fall in love with the wild card teams who they saw win the previous week, and forget that the teams coming off byes were better all year and earned the right to have a week off....
 
I like the UNDER on SF game. I looked and saw the OVER/UNDER this morning at 43. I missed it and had to settle for the 42.5. It's now 42 at my book.

I think this game is going to be dominated by the defenses. Both defenses are excellent and I think both teams play conservatively trying to see who makes the first mistake. On one side you're gonna see Deangelo/Stewart/Tolbert and even Cam running it and on the other Gore/Hunter and Kaep running it. I do think SF will throw though as they have some great skill position players in Boldin, Crabtree, and V Davis. I think SF wins this somewhere around 21-17 type of game.
 
scdoggy said:
Speaking of the Bolts - I'm kicking myself for not playing them at +4400 24 hours ago to win it all - but at +2000 I still see some decent value there if you think they have a shot at winning this weekend.

Unless my mind is playing tricks on me, the divisional round is historically dominated big time by the home teams. If anyone has some ATS number from this round over time I'd love to see them. Public tends to fall in love with the wild card teams who they saw win the previous week, and forget that the teams coming off byes were better all year and earned the right to have a week off....
Click to expand...

2012: Home teams went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS)

2011: Home teams went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS)

2010: Home teams went 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS)

2009: Home teams went 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS)

2008: Home teams went 1-3 SU (1-3 ATS)

2007: Home teams went 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS)

Overall since the 07/08 season, home teams are 14-10 SU (12-12 ATS) in the Divisional round.
 
here is simple re SF v Carolina:
with the close line (1.5), which team is best? I think an argument can be made for both teams. Wanted to take Panthers but decided to go with 'experience' in these games on coach and players. Situationally, have to give edge to Carolina b/c of west to east travel...post 17 above suggest a fairly even ATS record for home teams in divisional round. How many were home dogs?
 
emkee said:
2012: Home teams went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS)

2011: Home teams went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS)

2010: Home teams went 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS)

2009: Home teams went 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS)

2008: Home teams went 1-3 SU (1-3 ATS)

2007: Home teams went 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS)

Overall since the 07/08 season, home teams are 14-10 SU (12-12 ATS) in the Divisional round.
Click to expand...

There's usually one big favorite that loses outright in this round as well. There are a few of them over a TD this year, so expect for one of them to lose the game.
 
bones said:
here is simple re SF v Carolina:
with the close line (1.5), which team is best? I think an argument can be made for both teams. Wanted to take Panthers but decided to go with 'experience' in these games on coach and players. Situationally, have to give edge to Carolina b/c of west to east travel...post 17 above suggest a fairly even ATS record for home teams in divisional round. How many were home dogs?
Click to expand...

49ers under Harbaugh are 7-2 SU at games starting at 1:00 Eastern. I certainly wouldn't use this as a reason to play against them; if anything I'd use it as a reason to play them.
 
TheHbomb said:
49ers under Harbaugh are 7-2 SU at games starting at 1:00 Eastern. I certainly wouldn't use this as a reason to play against them; if anything I'd use it as a reason to play them.
Click to expand...

This doesn't include the London game against the Jags this year.
 
TheHbomb said:
49ers under Harbaugh are 7-2 SU at games starting at 1:00 Eastern. I certainly wouldn't use this as a reason to play against them; if anything I'd use it as a reason to play them.
Click to expand...
thanks Hbomb....now I am liking 9ers more.
 
TheHbomb said:
49ers under Harbaugh are 7-2 SU at games starting at 1:00 Eastern. I certainly wouldn't use this as a reason to play against them; if anything I'd use it as a reason to play them.
Click to expand...

Harbaugh should school 'Riverboat' Ron.

Travel issues a concern but the Niners are built to handle more than most exemplified even more by the refs not giving them shit yesterday and they still got the candy.

Love this team, they 'public' as f**k though.
 
Colts were horrible in all the 1st halves of their road primetime games: 6-10, 3-21, 6-17. Not one of those opponents finished better than 9-7.

More generally, their first 2 road games of the season were @SF (with SF seemingly all at sea off their hammering at Seattle) & @Jax (say no more). From there -

trailed 6-10 @SD (3-0 after the 1st)
trailed 3-21 @HOU (0-14 after the 1st)
trailed 6-17 @TEN (0-14 after the 1st)
trailed 3-27 @AZ (3-7 after the 1st)
trailed 0-14 @CIN (0-7 after the 1st)
led by 13-7 @KC (0-7 after the 1st)

In their last 6 road games of the reg. season, this is a team with 1 first half TD & 0 1st quarter TDs.

If anyone likes the Pats FG, then you gotta be loving them for the 1st half &/or 1 quarter.
 
Really like SD here guys. They have not lost by more than 10 all season and really only played one bad game at Oakland - a sandwich game between Dallas and Indy where SD was coming off a great come from behind victory vs Dallas. SD had 5 turnovers in that Oakland game. Will cut and paste thoughts from the other discussion thread, but this is shaping up to be my biggest play of the weekend.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Colts were horrible in all the 1st halves of their road primetime games: 6-10, 3-21, 6-17. Not one of those opponents finished better than 9-7.

More generally, their first 2 road games of the season were @SF (with SF seemingly all at sea off their hammering at Seattle) & @Jax (say no more). From there -

trailed 6-10 @SD (3-0 after the 1st)
trailed 3-21 @HOU (0-14 after the 1st)
trailed 6-17 @TEN (0-14 after the 1st)
trailed 3-27 @AZ (3-7 after the 1st)
trailed 0-14 @CIN (0-7 after the 1st)
led by 13-7 @KC (0-7 after the 1st)

In their last 6 road games of the reg. season, this is a team with 1 first half TD & 0 1st quarter TDs.

If anyone likes the Pats FG, then you gotta be loving them for the 1st half &/or 1 quarter.
Click to expand...

Indy should be vulnerable early coming off the emotional comeback win as well. I lean Indy FG but thinking you may have found the best play in that game.
 
emkee said:
2012: Home teams went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS)

2011: Home teams went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS)

2010: Home teams went 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS)

2009: Home teams went 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS)

2008: Home teams went 1-3 SU (1-3 ATS)

2007: Home teams went 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS)

Overall since the 07/08 season, home teams are 14-10 SU (12-12 ATS) in the Divisional round.
Click to expand...

Thanks bro. I must be flashing back to the old "Steam Room" days at Covers with this notion. Could have sworn at one time the home teams owned the divisional round. Good to see its regressing. Pretty sure I could make a case for almost every road team this week, though I have no interest in backing Indy....
 
Not sure how you can quote the Colts poor 1st half performances, and then forget to mention that the Patriots were drilled by the Broncos, Dolphins and Browns all in their home stadium in the first half. 24-0 / 17-3 / 6-0 ... so if you want to say the Colts suck in the first half for most of their road games; be prepared to say the same about New England.

BetCrimes1984 said:
Colts were horrible in all the 1st halves of their road primetime games: 6-10, 3-21, 6-17. Not one of those opponents finished better than 9-7.

More generally, their first 2 road games of the season were @SF (with SF seemingly all at sea off their hammering at Seattle) & @Jax (say no more). From there -

trailed 6-10 @SD (3-0 after the 1st)
trailed 3-21 @HOU (0-14 after the 1st)
trailed 6-17 @TEN (0-14 after the 1st)
trailed 3-27 @AZ (3-7 after the 1st)
trailed 0-14 @CIN (0-7 after the 1st)
led by 13-7 @KC (0-7 after the 1st)

In their last 6 road games of the reg. season, this is a team with 1 first half TD & 0 1st quarter TDs.

If anyone likes the Pats FG, then you gotta be loving them for the 1st half &/or 1 quarter.
Click to expand...
 
scdoggy said:
Speaking of the Bolts - I'm kicking myself for not playing them at +4400 24 hours ago to win it all - but at +2000 I still see some decent value there if you think they have a shot at winning this weekend.

Unless my mind is playing tricks on me, the divisional round is historically dominated big time by the home teams. If anyone has some ATS number from this round over time I'd love to see them. Public tends to fall in love with the wild card teams who they saw win the previous week, and forget that the teams coming off byes were better all year and earned the right to have a week off....
Click to expand...

There was a stretch when playing the home teams off the bye in this round was a license to print money, but it's tapered off in the last 10 years. No golden goose lasts forever. I think this week's tricky. My old habit is to lean with the out-of-sight, out-of-mind team off the bye, but these road quarterbacks are all pretty capable of the shocker. As Lareaux suggested, one of those big faves probably gets knocked off.
 
I don't think they are very good, but there is probably value on Indy above 7. I can see a NE 3-4 point win this week.
 
Really think NE rolls. Talib will stick Hilton & luck wont be able to generate much w his other weapons
 
You can run a little bit on NE. Not sure how hard the Colts will try. And Indy can't get way down again. Luck's great if they can keep it close.
 
I'm having a hard time overlooking Indy's strong performances against SF, Sea and Den - I know the team has changed with Wayne out, but the punch them in the mouth mentality is still there and they should have the playoff jitters out of their system by now. If NE was healthy, might be a different story, but this version of NE does not have the look of a championship team. Brady will always give them a chance to win, but I just don't think he has enough around him (RB, TE, WR depth charts all looking weak to me). I also think the game will be lower scoring.
 
C-MAN said:
I'm having a hard time overlooking Indy's strong performances against SF, Sea and Den - I know the team has changed with Wayne out, but the punch them in the mouth mentality is still there and they should have the playoff jitters out of their system by now. If NE was healthy, might be a different story, but this version of NE does not have the look of a championship team. Brady will always give them a chance to win, but I just don't think he has enough around him (RB, TE, WR depth charts all looking weak to me). I also think the game will be lower scoring.
Click to expand...

Think Indy could hang in there too. Kind of like the total over though.
 
Think I really like the Niners, even though I loved the Panthers to make a run all season. I'll take playoff experienced crew against Ron and Cam, playoff rookies.

Like the Bolts, how can you lay 10 with Broncos considering what happened last year in playoffs, Manning playoff history, that defense, and how the Bolts have played recently, including how they've played against Denver specifically. Made I took the Ravens future bet instead of them after week 15.

Speaking of futures, I have a 45/1 ticket on Indy and 14/1 on NE, so I'm loving that I have a team guaranteed in the final four. Like Indy and the points still, just LOVE Luck and like someone said, the smashing no bullshit of Colts. They have risen up to every challenge this year. Hopefully Pep continues to let Andrew air it out.
 
Colts are so 1 dimensional IMO....I feel like a good road dog has to be able to run it and burn some clock. That is what made SD so tough in upset last week and against Denver earlier this year.....Rivera threw like 5 passes in the first half at Cincy.
 
I have to look up the stats, but have the feeling that Carolina has been a slow starting team this year. I know i cashed two 1st Q tickets on that, will look into it further.
 
In addition, being a Skins fan and knowing whose pockets you are filling with your six-seven Benjamins spent on seats, parking, beers is well - counterproductive.

Looking at forecasts around the league for these four games shows weather not to be a factor in any of them. Maybe some rain in Foxboro but nothing close to what we saw last week with the cold...
 
Also starting to think books are begging for SD money. Everyone saw Rivers do his thing to Peyton a month ago, and beat Cincy at home and now they're handing us double digits in Denver. Its no secret that Manning has had his postseason troubles too.

Something tells me Manning may just blow them off the map this weekend.
 
Something tells me Manning may just blow them off the map this weekend.

I hate this line. I want it down in the 4.5 range, but I'm thinking this direction too and here's why.

Let's all remember how Denver left the playoffs last year. I'm comfortable and confident that Denver comes out smoking this weekend. However, the reason I really wanted them to play Indy was because of the ex-coach situation.

One of Manning's flaws is that, generally, if a team knows how to play him, they always know how to play him. For example, all those NE teams that he couldn't figure out. Then it seemed like every year when he was with Indy there was always one team that knew how to play him both games.

So what I worry about is, although Denver may come out ready to blow SD off the field, SD's coaching familiarity with how to play Manning may combat that significantly. Which is kind of a nightmare when you're laying double digits.
 
UMiamiCapper said:
Not sure how you can quote the Colts poor 1st half performances, and then forget to mention that the Patriots were drilled by the Broncos, Dolphins and Browns all in their home stadium in the first half. 24-0 / 17-3 / 6-0 ... so if you want to say the Colts suck in the first half for most of their road games; be prepared to say the same about New England.
Click to expand...

Leaving aside the Broncos result (simply because of the HOF nature of the Doncs QB, they could hand any team an ass whipping in any half they might otherwise be poor or strong in), that leaves you with 2 poor NE 1st halves in 7 reg. season home games (& further, in the Cleveland game they trailed by 6 pts, so that leaves the Pats trailing in 1 half at home by a TD or more against a non-elite QB team).

I think I'm willing to give any home team a couple of bad 1st halves they have no excuse for given the quality of their opponent. Those 2 1st halves don't quite compare to the 1st quarter/1st half streak Indy currently sits on (that they got the Chiefs so late in the season says little about their lead there, at least to me. Chiefs season turned on twin loses to Denver, sandwiched by an equally devastating loss to SD. After that stretch of games 'broke' them, they only managed to win SU against teams 8 games or worse below .500).

That being my thinking/reasoning, I saw no need to mention the no-streak of Pats poor home 1st halves.

-------

edit: Pats 1st quarters/1st halves under Brady @home in the playoffs, after 12+ win reg. seasons.

1st quarters: 7 won - 1 loss - 3 ties .... avg pts differential of +3.18
1st halves ..: 9 won - 1 loss - 1 tie .... avg pts differential of +6.09

Pats have yet to register the combo of losing the 1st quarter & trailing at the half in a home playoff game under Brady after a 12+ win reg. season.
 
Last edited:
That said, 1h under in NE I like alot

SD tt over, SEA I think rolls bigger than last time
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Leaving aside the Broncos result (simply because of the HOF nature of the Doncs QB, they could hand any team an ass whipping in any half they might otherwise be poor or strong in), that leaves you with 2 poor NE 1st halves in 7 reg. season home games (& further, in the Cleveland game they trailed by 6 pts, so that leaves the Pats trailing in 1 half at home by a TD or more against a non-elite QB team).

I think I'm willing to give any home team a couple of bad 1st halves they have no excuse for given the quality of their opponent. Those 2 1st halves don't quite compare to the 1st quarter/1st half streak Indy currently sits on (that they got the Chiefs so late in the season says little about their lead there, at least to me. Chiefs season turned on twin loses to Denver, sandwiched by an equally devastating loss to SD. After that stretch of games 'broke' them, they only managed to win SU against teams 8 games or worse below .500).

That being my thinking/reasoning, I saw no need to mention the no-streak of Pats poor home 1st halves.

-------

edit: Pats 1st quarters/1st halves under Brady @home in the playoffs, after 12+ win reg. seasons.

1st quarters: 7 won - 1 loss - 3 ties .... avg pts differential of +3.18
1st halves ..: 9 won - 1 loss - 1 tie .... avg pts differential of +6.09

Pats have yet to register the combo of losing the 1st quarter & trailing at the half in a home playoff game under Brady after a 12+ win reg. season.
Click to expand...

The quality of their opponent? So the Colts trail the Texans at halftime, it's a problem. However the Patriots trailing the Texans at the half is OK. Colts beating KC in week 16 doesn't mean anything but the Colts trailing to KC in week #18 is a problem.

You cannot cite previous years to determine future performance; especially when considering what 53 players New England has this time around. I could argue this is the weakest 12 win Patriots team ever, and I doubt anyone would argue against me; so if you want to skip around games to find the evidence to prove a point; go for it. But in the Colts last six games, they're 4-2 ATS in the first half; the Patriots are 3-3. The last three games ... the Colts are 2-1 and the Patriots are 3-0.

I understand the Colts went through a stretch of terrible 1st half performances, but they don't play a run first offensive style anymore, and they certainly don't give the ball to Trent Richardson a handful of times for a handful of yards or let Heyward Bay drop easy TD throws.

I can't imagine a scenario where the Patriots win by DD. With their playoff, run style these days, putting up points, even on Indy will be at a premium.
 
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