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We Must Protect Our Democracy
I watched Chiefs/Pats game last night.
It was week #6 and Pats had Gordon and Chiefs had Hunt.
My takeaways:
1. I would not bet on a single Pats player prop. Pats use so many different receiving targets and run schemes, its hard to see who they will rely on primarily. Michel had a beast game, will he do so again?. But, if there was a player to look to, I think I'd be most likely consider a James White combined yards prop. Gronkowski was targeted only once before the 4th qtr when he made 1 very important reception. Kelce was targeted early and it seems he was thereafter effectively taken out of game.
2. KC utilized Hunt a good amount for some big plays (185 combined yards). Pats targeted Gordon a fair amount (5 catches 42 yds) and there was a TD pass that he dropped b/c of Defense interference but Pats got ball on 1 yd line and then scored. Point: I think Pats will not miss Gordon, but Hunt was a fairly large factor in the game.
3. I have not looked at props but, w/o Tyrek Hill being involved successfully its my opinion KC will lose. So, I'm inclined to look at Hill for a prop play.
4. Pats pressured Mahomes as well as I've seen a team do all season. Mahomes had a good game stat wise, helped by some long throws particularly late for TDs, but he also missed many. He threw 2 ints, including 1 by Hightower returned to KC 2 yd line. The other was an int in the end zone with about 17 seconds left in 1H. Mahomes is great, no doubt, but watching the game it sure seemed as if Pats figured out how to pressure him. That being said, they did get to 40 but 14 of those were aided by a k.o. return and a Brady fumble
5. The 83 pt total was misleading. The int by Hightower was around 25 yd line of KC taken to the 2 yd line. There was also a kick off return by KC taken to Pats 3 and a Brady fumble at his 35 which all led to TDs. Can this happen again? Sure, but I think its unlikely. In addition, while Tyrek Hill was the factor for 2 long TDs. in 2H, KC had to settle for 3 fgs in 1H. In 1H while Pats had 24 points, their offense was only responsible for 17. Pats' drives were long and intentionally so. I see the O/U is still 56 which seems right.
6. Pats ran the ball effectively. If they do so again they will cover IMO.
Is there a reason to believe they will not? I'm asking and do not know. I'd be most interested in answer to this question. If they can, it makes me want to take Pats + points.
7. Special teams, particularly K.O. returns and coverage, favored K.C.
8. The weather and field condition in this game were perfect.
My conclusion:
I currently have K.C. money line small at -165 which I may play back against.
I lean Pats +3
I am looking at Hill props and maybe White for Pats?
If Pats win their team total Over 26.5 is a necessity
If I had to predict final score: 30-28, which way I do not know but I'm not laying the 3
It was week #6 and Pats had Gordon and Chiefs had Hunt.
My takeaways:
1. I would not bet on a single Pats player prop. Pats use so many different receiving targets and run schemes, its hard to see who they will rely on primarily. Michel had a beast game, will he do so again?. But, if there was a player to look to, I think I'd be most likely consider a James White combined yards prop. Gronkowski was targeted only once before the 4th qtr when he made 1 very important reception. Kelce was targeted early and it seems he was thereafter effectively taken out of game.
2. KC utilized Hunt a good amount for some big plays (185 combined yards). Pats targeted Gordon a fair amount (5 catches 42 yds) and there was a TD pass that he dropped b/c of Defense interference but Pats got ball on 1 yd line and then scored. Point: I think Pats will not miss Gordon, but Hunt was a fairly large factor in the game.
3. I have not looked at props but, w/o Tyrek Hill being involved successfully its my opinion KC will lose. So, I'm inclined to look at Hill for a prop play.
4. Pats pressured Mahomes as well as I've seen a team do all season. Mahomes had a good game stat wise, helped by some long throws particularly late for TDs, but he also missed many. He threw 2 ints, including 1 by Hightower returned to KC 2 yd line. The other was an int in the end zone with about 17 seconds left in 1H. Mahomes is great, no doubt, but watching the game it sure seemed as if Pats figured out how to pressure him. That being said, they did get to 40 but 14 of those were aided by a k.o. return and a Brady fumble
5. The 83 pt total was misleading. The int by Hightower was around 25 yd line of KC taken to the 2 yd line. There was also a kick off return by KC taken to Pats 3 and a Brady fumble at his 35 which all led to TDs. Can this happen again? Sure, but I think its unlikely. In addition, while Tyrek Hill was the factor for 2 long TDs. in 2H, KC had to settle for 3 fgs in 1H. In 1H while Pats had 24 points, their offense was only responsible for 17. Pats' drives were long and intentionally so. I see the O/U is still 56 which seems right.
6. Pats ran the ball effectively. If they do so again they will cover IMO.
Is there a reason to believe they will not? I'm asking and do not know. I'd be most interested in answer to this question. If they can, it makes me want to take Pats + points.
7. Special teams, particularly K.O. returns and coverage, favored K.C.
8. The weather and field condition in this game were perfect.
My conclusion:
I currently have K.C. money line small at -165 which I may play back against.
I lean Pats +3
I am looking at Hill props and maybe White for Pats?
If Pats win their team total Over 26.5 is a necessity
If I had to predict final score: 30-28, which way I do not know but I'm not laying the 3
