***New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Discussion***

I watched Chiefs/Pats game last night.

It was week #6 and Pats had Gordon and Chiefs had Hunt.

My takeaways:

1. I would not bet on a single Pats player prop. Pats use so many different receiving targets and run schemes, its hard to see who they will rely on primarily. Michel had a beast game, will he do so again?. But, if there was a player to look to, I think I'd be most likely consider a James White combined yards prop. Gronkowski was targeted only once before the 4th qtr when he made 1 very important reception. Kelce was targeted early and it seems he was thereafter effectively taken out of game.

2. KC utilized Hunt a good amount for some big plays (185 combined yards). Pats targeted Gordon a fair amount (5 catches 42 yds) and there was a TD pass that he dropped b/c of Defense interference but Pats got ball on 1 yd line and then scored. Point: I think Pats will not miss Gordon, but Hunt was a fairly large factor in the game.

3. I have not looked at props but, w/o Tyrek Hill being involved successfully its my opinion KC will lose. So, I'm inclined to look at Hill for a prop play.

4. Pats pressured Mahomes as well as I've seen a team do all season. Mahomes had a good game stat wise, helped by some long throws particularly late for TDs, but he also missed many. He threw 2 ints, including 1 by Hightower returned to KC 2 yd line. The other was an int in the end zone with about 17 seconds left in 1H. Mahomes is great, no doubt, but watching the game it sure seemed as if Pats figured out how to pressure him. That being said, they did get to 40 but 14 of those were aided by a k.o. return and a Brady fumble

5. The 83 pt total was misleading. The int by Hightower was around 25 yd line of KC taken to the 2 yd line. There was also a kick off return by KC taken to Pats 3 and a Brady fumble at his 35 which all led to TDs. Can this happen again? Sure, but I think its unlikely. In addition, while Tyrek Hill was the factor for 2 long TDs. in 2H, KC had to settle for 3 fgs in 1H. In 1H while Pats had 24 points, their offense was only responsible for 17. Pats' drives were long and intentionally so. I see the O/U is still 56 which seems right.

6. Pats ran the ball effectively. If they do so again they will cover IMO.

Is there a reason to believe they will not? I'm asking and do not know. I'd be most interested in answer to this question. If they can, it makes me want to take Pats + points.

7. Special teams, particularly K.O. returns and coverage, favored K.C.

8. The weather and field condition in this game were perfect.

My conclusion:

I currently have K.C. money line small at -165 which I may play back against.
I lean Pats +3
I am looking at Hill props and maybe White for Pats?
If Pats win their team total Over 26.5 is a necessity

If I had to predict final score: 30-28, which way I do not know but I'm not laying the 3
 
Inspekdah said:
Maholmes looks stiff in the cold and significantly slower. They didn’t look good last week after about 5 minutes in. Just my 2 cents. His QBR is average when the temperate is below freezing which it will be.

3 basically says Pats are a smidge better as I don’t think 3 is enough for HF in these games. That’s a pretty significant line with majority on Chiefs.
Click to expand...


Is this game keys which qb can play best in cold weather.


Brady master of cold weather. Bigger hands.

Mahomes stiff small hands?

Could this be a mental game in which brady mentally can handle the elements.

I woke up with this feeling that Mahomes will fold in cold weather.
I’m getting the feeling Kc will lay a dud today.

Too many edges to pats.

The coaching matchup could be the biggest mismatch in Afc history.

QBs as well. Brady is the legend. Mahomes to me is rg3. Don’t see him doing much today.
 
I honestly feel that Brady should win at least 2-3 more Super Bowls.

I just don’t see the rest of the league as beinv competent enough.

Eagkes last year played a perfect game to beat Brady.

I just don’t see the rest of the league competing with this franchise. They are miles ahead in terms of play calling scheming.

I think this game will be an easy win for pats.

Reid will practice today what he has practiced his entire career. Losing big games!!
 
I’ve seen it said a few times making it seem like the public is all over the Chiefs. I pay for a few programs that track and have Twitter guys in Vegas I interact with in DM, and nowhere is KC getting more than 56% of the action. Some have the Pats with the majority.

South Point has 3.5 up right now, Caesar’s had 3.5, Bookmaker had it and/or every book is highly juiced and nowhere is KC getting hammered with public money.

Just setting that straight.

Also, the cold weather Patrick Mahomes thing? His cold weather experiences have led him to a QBR in those games averaging better than Aaron Rodgers, DeShaun Watson and Dak Prescott had for the entire season. And decimal points below Russel Wilson. So even when he’s been “bad”, he’s been as good as some of the better QBs in the league.
 
Last edited:
This is the Chiefs year to win it. Going to lose studs on that Dline and have to pay Pat soon. They’ll be a victim of Reid and the salary cap soon with bums like Watkins making way too much money. Today is their today. The time is now. Regression is imminent.
 
Capaholic said:
I’ve seen it said a few times making it seem like the public is all over the Chiefs. I pay for a few programs that track and have Twitter guys in Vegas I interact with in DM, and nowhere is KC getting more than 56% of the action. Some have the Pats with the majority.

South Point has 3.5 up right now, Caesar’s had 3.5, Bookmaker had it and/or every book is highly juiced and nowhere is KC getting hammered with public money.

Just setting that straight.

Also, the cold weather Patrick Mahomes thing? His cold weather experiences have led him to a QBR in those games averaging better than Aaron Rodgers, DeShaun Watson and Dak Prescott had for the entire season. And decimal points below Russel Wilson. So even when he’s been “bad”, he’s been as good as some of the better QBs in the league.
Click to expand...

Don’t think they win with a QBR performance in an average range. Comparing the MVP to Dak Prescott says a lot.
 
Inspekdah said:
This is the Chiefs year to win it. Going to lose studs on that Dline and have to pay Pat soon. They’ll be a victim of Reid and the salary cap soon with bums like Watkins making way too much money. Today is their today. The time is now. Regression is imminent.
Click to expand...

Their preseason win total was 8. Their 23 year old first year starter is the MVP. DL is completely back next season. Dee Ford is the only LB not on contract next year and will likely be tagged.

Also, I apologize for putting up a playoff QB to compare to Mahomes’ absolute worst performance.
 
bones said:
I watched Chiefs/Pats game last night.

It was week #6 and Pats had Gordon and Chiefs had Hunt.

My takeaways:

1. I would not bet on a single Pats player prop. Pats use so many different receiving targets and run schemes, its hard to see who they will rely on primarily. Michel had a beast game, will he do so again?. But, if there was a player to look to, I think I'd be most likely consider a James White combined yards prop. Gronkowski was targeted only once before the 4th qtr when he made 1 very important reception. Kelce was targeted early and it seems he was thereafter effectively taken out of game.

2. KC utilized Hunt a good amount for some big plays (185 combined yards). Pats targeted Gordon a fair amount (5 catches 42 yds) and there was a TD pass that he dropped b/c of Defense interference but Pats got ball on 1 yd line and then scored. Point: I think Pats will not miss Gordon, but Hunt was a fairly large factor in the game.

3. I have not looked at props but, w/o Tyrek Hill being involved successfully its my opinion KC will lose. So, I'm inclined to look at Hill for a prop play.

4. Pats pressured Mahomes as well as I've seen a team do all season. Mahomes had a good game stat wise, helped by some long throws particularly late for TDs, but he also missed many. He threw 2 ints, including 1 by Hightower returned to KC 2 yd line. The other was an int in the end zone with about 17 seconds left in 1H. Mahomes is great, no doubt, but watching the game it sure seemed as if Pats figured out how to pressure him. That being said, they did get to 40 but 14 of those were aided by a k.o. return and a Brady fumble

5. The 83 pt total was misleading. The int by Hightower was around 25 yd line of KC taken to the 2 yd line. There was also a kick off return by KC taken to Pats 3 and a Brady fumble at his 35 which all led to TDs. Can this happen again? Sure, but I think its unlikely. In addition, while Tyrek Hill was the factor for 2 long TDs. in 2H, KC had to settle for 3 fgs in 1H. In 1H while Pats had 24 points, their offense was only responsible for 17. Pats' drives were long and intentionally so. I see the O/U is still 56 which seems right.

6. Pats ran the ball effectively. If they do so again they will cover IMO.

Is there a reason to believe they will not? I'm asking and do not know. I'd be most interested in answer to this question. If they can, it makes me want to take Pats + points.

7. Special teams, particularly K.O. returns and coverage, favored K.C.

8. The weather and field condition in this game were perfect.

My conclusion:

I currently have K.C. money line small at -165 which I may play back against.
I lean Pats +3
I am looking at Hill props and maybe White for Pats?
If Pats win their team total Over 26.5 is a necessity

If I had to predict final score: 30-28, which way I do not know but I'm not laying the 3
Click to expand...
I left off one key thing - Brady was well protected in the pocket...save for the sack/fumble
 
Capaholic said:
I’ve seen it said a few times making it seem like the public is all over the Chiefs. I pay for a few programs that track and have Twitter guys in Vegas I interact with in DM, and nowhere is KC getting more than 56% of the action. Some have the Pats with the majority.

South Point has 3.5 up right now, Caesar’s had 3.5, Bookmaker had it and/or every book is highly juiced and nowhere is KC getting hammered with public money.

Just setting that straight.

Also, the cold weather Patrick Mahomes thing? His cold weather experiences have led him to a QBR in those games averaging better than Aaron Rodgers, DeShaun Watson and Dak Prescott had for the entire season. And decimal points below Russel Wilson. So even when he’s been “bad”, he’s been as good as some of the better QBs in the league.
Click to expand...

You wouldn’t expect to see Chiefs money flooding in on -3.5 when there are plenty of 3s out there. Wouldn’t the fact they moved to 3.5 in the first place mean they had some heavy Chiefs action?

What is the possible sample size you’re using for Mahomes and “cold weather” games? Did he maybe play in 2 or 3 so far in his NFL career? I’m not agreeing with anyone that the cold weather is somehow going to change Mahomes at all, but using his QBR in a few games (at most) as a counterpoint sounds as silly as most of the stuff Sammy says.
 
Isn’t the sample size too small to be able to tell one way or the other whether the weather is going to affect PM?

Hard to simply assume a QB is going to regress unless there’s a long history of seeing him play outside of what most would consider the “normal” element.

TBH, we should’ve all seen Luck being way more of a candidate to regress last week because he’s a dome QB and has struggled his whole career in the elements (including rain) throwing the football.

Just don’t think there’s enough of a book out on 15 to add/detract from what his “average” performance would be so far.
 
jedi ninja said:
You wouldn’t expect to see Chiefs money flooding in on -3.5 when there are plenty of 3s out there. Wouldn’t the fact they moved to 3.5 in the first place mean they had some heavy Chiefs action?

What is the possible sample size you’re using for Mahomes and “cold weather” games? Did he maybe play in 2 or 3 so far in his NFL career? I’m not agreeing with anyone that the cold weather is somehow going to change Mahomes at all, but using his QBR in a few games (at most) as a counterpoint sounds as silly as most of the stuff Sammy says.
Click to expand...

My point was that the $ is on the Chiefs but not the ticket count

There was a tweet circulating and those guys at Pre****.com had found that Mahomes worst 4 QBR games were his 4 coldest games., THats where that came from, Point was his bad games are still very good
 
Throw all stats trends in the garbage.

The game comes down to this.

Are the chiefs ready to become winners? Or are they going to play and coach like they usually do?

If they play with typical Reid style they will lose.

They really need to outplay the pats and play their best game.

Does Reid step up or does he just stand clueless and watch as his home teams nervous crowd energy translates into the team.

Yes earlier I was feeling the chiefs but then I came to my senses and realized if I backed the chiefs I am backing a perennial losing franchise with a perennial losing head coach with a young hot shot qb who would rather not play in the cold weather.

For my wallet and my sanity I cannot bet on losers.

Chiefs are losers. If they win they won’t be because they beat winners.

But until they do I’m going to assume that almost hundred percent guaranteed that winning isn’t in Andy Reid’s cards. It certainly seems to be in Bills and Brady’s cards!
 
If I’ve learned one thing it’s to trust your gut instinct!

I’m going to double down on my take on the chiefs Reid and particularly Mahomes.

If I make a prediction on a qb it’s just a matter of time before it comes true.

I think tonight is the night that my predictions come true.

Colts shit down chiefs in second half. Luck was throwing like a girl.

I think this matchup is all Pats. They are the winners.

I think they get back to the super bowl.
 
I just don’t see how in a big game you can take a coach who stands there doing nothing.

He’s not adjusting. He’s not paying attention to the defense. He’s certainly not looking at the clock. He’s not paying attention to challenges.

I just don’t see how with all chips on table that Andrew Reid can coach to win.

His style works in the reg season. But in playoffs it’s a different game. A different animal.
Reid will be playing checkers while Billy is playing chess!!
 
Bill is smart.

I think he’s doubling Hill.

All you need to do to beat Kc is to stop Hill.

Without Hill its just Kelce. But depending on the week Kelce looks fat and slow some weeks. Bad conditioning.

Bill will take Tyrone Hill out of this game. I expect that to be the plan.

Offensively you have 2 of the game’s best in James White and Edelmen.

As long as the Kc defensive coordinator plays the typical coward Nfl defense of saying ok let’s not get beat deep. White and Edelmen will gladly hook 5-10 yards 15-26 times tonight.
It’s too easy for Brady. Just run turn around and Brady will fire the ball in there. Edelmen all day! White all day!!
 
spanishshark said:
Sammy, Brady will be done after this game. Gut feeling ;)
Click to expand...

He’s got a good 5 years left I believe. He’s in his prime now.
Just don’t see anyone of these young qbs ready to replace him. Maybe the Clemson star qb Lawrence will. Not any of the current group of young qbs.

Luck isn’t the guy
Desean inconsistent.
Mahomes small hands cold weather etc.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
He’s got a good 5 years left I believe. He’s in his prime now.
Just don’t see anyone of these young qbs ready to replace him. Maybe the Clemson star qb Lawrence will. Not any of the current group of young qbs.

Luck isn’t the guy
Desean inconsistent.
Mahomes small hands cold weather etc.
Click to expand...

Small hands Maholmes will look tight tonight
 
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