TopDaddy
Pretty much a regular
Mississippi State -10 is no longer a play for me, as the starting lineup is still in question due to injuries and suspensions. Please disregard the writeup, although I still think it holds some weight, and I still think they will cover, but I'm not NEARLY as confident as I was.
Plays (all plays 1 unit):
Troy -6
Kansas State -25
TCU -6.5
One of the games that caught my attention right off the bat (but now is just a lean due to injuries and suspensions) is that of:
Mississippi State -10 @ La Tech
The primary thing that I like to look at for Week One games is returning starters and momentum coming off of last season.
La Tech has a pretty good situation on offense as it relates to it returning starters. The top three rushers last year return including Zac Champion, who was just shy of 1000 yards last year and has recieved 2nd Team All WAC each of the last 2 years. They also return last year's leading receiver, Philip Livas, as well as both tight ends that were used out of their two tight end set. The only question mark of the skill positions is at QB, and the solution might come in the form of a transfer from Georgia Tech, Taylor Bennett, who through some loophole and witchcraft was able to transfer and begin playing immediatly. (GT's starting TE also transfered for the same reason as Bennett, but for some reason the NCAA didn't allow him to play for the Tide this year, makes sense, right?) As you may or may not know, Bennett didn't exactly tear the ACC up last year, but he didn't absolutely suck. At any rate, if he can adapt to La Tech's style of offense, it will be a great addition to have a QB with experience, especially considering the alternatives. The O-Line may be a concern, but they only lost 2 starters from LY, and they've got a little depth, so no red flags to speak of here. Offense is a check...
Defense is far from a check. One returning DL, one returning LB, and 3 returners in the secondary. This could be a problem. However, 2 JUCO transfers have been brought in to fill some gaps on DL, but everywhere else fends for itself, and there's no guarantee these JUCO guys are the answer. One area of concern is pass rush: if you can't get it going, it doesn't matter if you've got 5 fourth year defensive backs in the dime, someone is going to get open, and it'll get ugly quick. The other area is stopping the run. If you can't do it, you can't beat an SEC team. We've got a recipe for disaster on D.
Now to Miss St:
It took these guys a while to get some confidence last year, but once they did, they were scary. Henig finally got seriously hurt for the 18th time in his career, and in steps Wesley Carroll. He was nothing to write home about, but his inexperience caused the coaching staff to reevaluate the offensive scheme. Carrol threw dump passes and quick slants like a champ, and didn't throw his first INT until his 140th, or so, pass attempt. He got comfortable and became dangerous. Add this in with the fact that you have an Anthony Dixon in the backfield, and you're in business. Dixon is an animal, just ask by beloved Tide, who stacked seven and eight in the box and still couldn't get the guy to quit. The offensive line is only returning 2 starters, but they do have depth and experience on their side.
The defense, who was also pretty good after the offense decided they could score some points, is only missing 3 starters from last year (1 LB and 2 DL), but the fill ins have experience as well.
They way I figure it, Mississippi St can get a pass rush on. Couple this with an experienced secondary, and you've got the passing game sputtering at best, with predictable screens and TE waggles being all the offense can do to muster yardage out of the passing game. State also has an experience front 7, which can fill some holes and stop the running game (see Kevin Smith's non-existant run game in State's victory over UCF). On the flip side, you've got a bruiser of a running back going up against a very inexperienced front 7 for La Tech. That same front 7 will probably not get a good push for a pass rush either.
The Momentum: State comes off a season in which the beat Bama, Auburn, UK, Ole Miss, and did better than most in shutting down Kevin Smith in the bowl game. They have something to build on. La Tech however, closed their season out with a horrible loss to the hands of Nevada, and lost too many starters IMO to have anything to really build off of last season.
The Intangibles: Think quickly, how many points has Mississippi State scored in its last two season openers?... ZERO, two shut outs! You think Sly doesn't know that? He is going to score as many points as his team will allow him to. You also have to look at State's schedule, brutal. They only have 4 games IMO that should be wins. Well, four wins doesn't get you to a bowl, so you've got to win the games you should, play well in those games and make some improvements, and surprise a few people to get where you want to go. So you HAVE to win those gimmes, and this in one of them. And you don't want to leave any doubt in those victories, either. Give your team something to build on when they leave Ruston. All that to say:
Mississippi State -10
Final Score: 28-3
Good Luck to all this season, and please feel free to comment.:15_10_5:
Plays (all plays 1 unit):
Troy -6
Kansas State -25
TCU -6.5
One of the games that caught my attention right off the bat (but now is just a lean due to injuries and suspensions) is that of:
Mississippi State -10 @ La Tech
The primary thing that I like to look at for Week One games is returning starters and momentum coming off of last season.
La Tech has a pretty good situation on offense as it relates to it returning starters. The top three rushers last year return including Zac Champion, who was just shy of 1000 yards last year and has recieved 2nd Team All WAC each of the last 2 years. They also return last year's leading receiver, Philip Livas, as well as both tight ends that were used out of their two tight end set. The only question mark of the skill positions is at QB, and the solution might come in the form of a transfer from Georgia Tech, Taylor Bennett, who through some loophole and witchcraft was able to transfer and begin playing immediatly. (GT's starting TE also transfered for the same reason as Bennett, but for some reason the NCAA didn't allow him to play for the Tide this year, makes sense, right?) As you may or may not know, Bennett didn't exactly tear the ACC up last year, but he didn't absolutely suck. At any rate, if he can adapt to La Tech's style of offense, it will be a great addition to have a QB with experience, especially considering the alternatives. The O-Line may be a concern, but they only lost 2 starters from LY, and they've got a little depth, so no red flags to speak of here. Offense is a check...
Defense is far from a check. One returning DL, one returning LB, and 3 returners in the secondary. This could be a problem. However, 2 JUCO transfers have been brought in to fill some gaps on DL, but everywhere else fends for itself, and there's no guarantee these JUCO guys are the answer. One area of concern is pass rush: if you can't get it going, it doesn't matter if you've got 5 fourth year defensive backs in the dime, someone is going to get open, and it'll get ugly quick. The other area is stopping the run. If you can't do it, you can't beat an SEC team. We've got a recipe for disaster on D.
Now to Miss St:
It took these guys a while to get some confidence last year, but once they did, they were scary. Henig finally got seriously hurt for the 18th time in his career, and in steps Wesley Carroll. He was nothing to write home about, but his inexperience caused the coaching staff to reevaluate the offensive scheme. Carrol threw dump passes and quick slants like a champ, and didn't throw his first INT until his 140th, or so, pass attempt. He got comfortable and became dangerous. Add this in with the fact that you have an Anthony Dixon in the backfield, and you're in business. Dixon is an animal, just ask by beloved Tide, who stacked seven and eight in the box and still couldn't get the guy to quit. The offensive line is only returning 2 starters, but they do have depth and experience on their side.
The defense, who was also pretty good after the offense decided they could score some points, is only missing 3 starters from last year (1 LB and 2 DL), but the fill ins have experience as well.
They way I figure it, Mississippi St can get a pass rush on. Couple this with an experienced secondary, and you've got the passing game sputtering at best, with predictable screens and TE waggles being all the offense can do to muster yardage out of the passing game. State also has an experience front 7, which can fill some holes and stop the running game (see Kevin Smith's non-existant run game in State's victory over UCF). On the flip side, you've got a bruiser of a running back going up against a very inexperienced front 7 for La Tech. That same front 7 will probably not get a good push for a pass rush either.
The Momentum: State comes off a season in which the beat Bama, Auburn, UK, Ole Miss, and did better than most in shutting down Kevin Smith in the bowl game. They have something to build on. La Tech however, closed their season out with a horrible loss to the hands of Nevada, and lost too many starters IMO to have anything to really build off of last season.
The Intangibles: Think quickly, how many points has Mississippi State scored in its last two season openers?... ZERO, two shut outs! You think Sly doesn't know that? He is going to score as many points as his team will allow him to. You also have to look at State's schedule, brutal. They only have 4 games IMO that should be wins. Well, four wins doesn't get you to a bowl, so you've got to win the games you should, play well in those games and make some improvements, and surprise a few people to get where you want to go. So you HAVE to win those gimmes, and this in one of them. And you don't want to leave any doubt in those victories, either. Give your team something to build on when they leave Ruston. All that to say:
Mississippi State -10
Final Score: 28-3
Good Luck to all this season, and please feel free to comment.:15_10_5:
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