NCAAF 19/20 Bowl Thread

CrimsonK said:
Good question, I would say it's unlikely. I also wonder if they don't play Bowden more at WR this game? Taking a pounding as wildcat QB before entering NFL as a WR is a -EV move. He loves the team and program though, so he may not care about injury. Its not a game I care to bet on right now.
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Any talk of him sitting out? Hes got a lot of money riding on a meaningless game....
 
CrimsonK said:
I think this is the challenge with any bowl game. Some appear to be more obvious let down spots than others, but I’ve found gauging motivation to be a challenge. In recent years, it’s felt like it’s gone totally opposite of conventional wisdom, at times.
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Yeah, does seem like that. Last couple years I've gotten KILLED in the bowls. Need to try a different approach.
 
CrimsonK said:
Added another 1.5 u on Arizona State -3.5 -113. 2.5 total
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Going to be opposite of you here. Both backs declaring, I feel it is a bigger loss for the Devils. ASU passing game doesntvscare me. That is where the Noles get beat. I know I am a fan, but have never had an issue playing agaist FSU.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Going to be opposite of you here. Both backs declaring, I feel it is a bigger loss for the Devils. ASU passing game doesntvscare me. That is where the Noles get beat. I know I am a fan, but have never had an issue playing agaist FSU.
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FWIW, Eno hasn’t said he will sit. He prob will, but worth mentioning. If FSU can get motivated to make a trip to El Paso with a half staff and without at least 3 top 100 drafts picks (possibly more sitting, im told) then they can have my money. I don’t think FSU is dialed in to learning how to beat a 3-3-5 defense which they don’t ever see. I trust Herm to have a young team far more ready to compete.
 
CrimsonK said:
FWIW, Eno hasn’t said he will sit. He prob will, but worth mentioning. If FSU can get motivated to make a trip to El Paso with a half staff and without at least 3 top 100 drafts picks (possibly more sitting, im told) then they can have my money. I don’t think FSU is dialed in to learning how to beat a 3-3-5 defense which they don’t ever see. I trust Herm to have a young team far more ready to compete.
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Haven't seen mention of others, but I would imagine Big Narv and Terry are your others. Terry is a loss, but Big Marv is instrumental to stopping the run by clogging the middle. If they sit, I'll change my tune.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Haven't seen mention of others, but I would imagine Big Narv and Terry are your others. Terry is a loss, but Big Marv is instrumental to stopping the run by clogging the middle. If they sit, I'll change my tune.
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Marvin is out. Akers is out. Hamsah is gonna be out. TT is prob 60/40 play. If a mediocre team like FSU can just simply decide this is the game that they play good football for first time all year and it’s without those guys, I’m okay with an L
 
Great year as always! Figured I would ask as I bet many others would certainly enjoy. But any chance you can rank your bowls based on confidence as I’m sure many follows are in confidence pools :)
Thanks man!
 
Bossman71 said:
Great year as always! Figured I would ask as I bet many others would certainly enjoy. But any chance you can rank your bowls based on confidence as I’m sure many follows are in confidence pools :)
Thanks man!
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Maybe. This activity is generally one of my least favorite exercises to do. I don't want to commit to doing it, because I really dont want to, but I also wont totally close the door on it, because maybe I wont be as busy and may feel more enthused to do it.
 
twinkie13 said:
Is he thought of as a serious NFL WR?

I love the kid and what he did, he needs more recognition because didn’t he tell the coach he wanted to play QB right
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I think he can be an excellent slot WR at next level. I also think a team that is wise will put him at QB for a few snaps every game, if for no other reason than to make a DC spend time on that multiplicity each week. Would love to see him line up like Kamara in backfield too and get some passing game work. I love him, have since he was in HS, always been one of my favorite players. I think a team thats creative will take him late day 2 or early day 3 and get a really versatile weapon. I keep thinking about how fun he would be on the Ravens with how they could stress teams even more.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Have you broke down Liberty/Ga So? Curious what your numbers are saying about the total.
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Liberty v. Ga So (-4.5/60.5) First ever bowl trip for Liberty, this is big deal. Ga So third-ever bowl game, undefeated in first two. I think Liberty is the more motivated team, but GaSo shouldn't be disinterested, by any means. I generally like backing option teams in bowl games. Despite conventional wisdom that teams have many weeks to prep, it doesn't seem to matter much. Liberty saw option last year and Army had 500+ yards and 38 points. Their rush defense is terrible, pass defense much more a strength. They shouldn't stop Ga So. Liberty offense good. They are a pass first offense and have an NFL WR in AGG. Theyve played some terrible defenses this year. There are two FCS foes and six other teams that rank bottom 25 or worse nationally. Ga So defense is in top four non terrible defenses faced. Lib scored 35, 24, 27 v other 3. Ga So has been vulnerable against the good pass off theyve faced. 55, 35, 49, and 38 allowed. I think the probability of Ga So having defensive success is greater than Liberty hanging a big number like that. I think ground games tend to travel better in games like this, esp against a terrible rush defense. I can't ignore that edge for Ga So, and how poorly Liberty defended it last season. New staff, but I don't have any confidence. I think the total has gotten driven too high as well, but I've only taken Ga So -5 so far. I'll go GS 34-24.
 
Gonna take a shot that these suspensions for OU are legit. If so, would be four significant players, with the two most costly being starting DB and best pass rusher.

LSU -13 v. Oklahoma -108 (1 unit)
 
Buffalo/Charlotte total now at 53.5.....I'm still liking the over. Wind/weather might make for some short fields either via turnover or bad punts.... thoughts?
 
CrimsonK...any feelings, likes on these games at these lines?

CMich-SanDiego St (-4)
FIU-Ark St (-3)
UAB-App St (-17)
Marshall-UCF (-17)
Hawaii-BYU (-1.5)
E.Mich-Pitt (-11)
Wake Forest-Mich St (-3.5)
Ok St-Texas A&M (-5.5)
USC-Iowa (-1)
WashSt-AFA (-2.5)
Louisville-Miss St (-3)
Illinois-Cal (-6.5)
Virginia-Florida (-13.5)
Navy-Kansas St (-1)
GA St-Wyoming (-7)
Texas-Utah (-7)
Minnesota-Auburn (-7)
BC-Cincinnati (-6.5)
Indiana-Tennessee (-1.5)
Southern Miss-Tulane (-6.5)
MiamiOH-ULL (-14)

Thanks
 
CrimsonK said:
Liberty v. Ga So (-4.5/60.5) First ever bowl trip for Liberty, this is big deal. Ga So third-ever bowl game, undefeated in first two. I think Liberty is the more motivated team, but GaSo shouldn't be disinterested, by any means. I generally like backing option teams in bowl games. Despite conventional wisdom that teams have many weeks to prep, it doesn't seem to matter much. Liberty saw option last year and Army had 500+ yards and 38 points. Their rush defense is terrible, pass defense much more a strength. They shouldn't stop Ga So. Liberty offense good. They are a pass first offense and have an NFL WR in AGG. Theyve played some terrible defenses this year. There are two FCS foes and six other teams that rank bottom 25 or worse nationally. Ga So defense is in top four non terrible defenses faced. Lib scored 35, 24, 27 v other 3. Ga So has been vulnerable against the good pass off theyve faced. 55, 35, 49, and 38 allowed. I think the probability of Ga So having defensive success is greater than Liberty hanging a big number like that. I think ground games tend to travel better in games like this, esp against a terrible rush defense. I can't ignore that edge for Ga So, and how poorly Liberty defended it last season. New staff, but I don't have any confidence. I think the total has gotten driven too high as well, but I've only taken Ga So -5 so far. I'll go GS 34-24.
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While I think extra time helps to a extent when it comes to defending option in reality does it matter how much time you have if you can’t mimic it in practice which no team who doesn’t run it can.
 
Oklahoma State +7 v. aTm -108 (1 unit)

QB Spencer Sanders is back for Ok State. Big upgrade. Line is up this high because of his presumed absence, IMO.
 
CrimsonK said:
Maybe. This activity is generally one of my least favorite exercises to do. I don't want to commit to doing it, because I really dont want to, but I also wont totally close the door on it, because maybe I wont be as busy and may feel more enthused to do it.
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okay man! No problem as we all know your are extremely busy and we appreciate all your knowledge. Was just something I feel would bring a lot of value and help many of your follows in bowl poll .
thanks as always!
 
This is what I did in confidence pool. I spent more time clicking buttons than thinking about my picks or strategy. Highest to lowest:

App State
Pitt
LSU
Florida
ULL
UCF
Ohio
Bama
Penn State
Auburn
UNC
SMU
Ariz St
Ga St
Cinci
Buffalo
Miami
Tulane
Washington
WKU
Cal
Ga St
UGA
Ohio St
Tennessee
Wash St
Wisconsin
Utah
Iowa
Miss St
Mich St
Iowa St
K St
Kentucky
BYU
Ark St
Kent St
CMU
NC ATT
Clemson/Ohio St Winner

The are straight up, not ATS
 
CrimsonK said:
This is what I did in confidence pool. I spent more time clicking buttons than thinking about my picks or strategy. Highest to lowest:

App State
Pitt
LSU
Florida
ULL
UCF
Ohio
Bama
Penn State
Auburn
UNC
SMU
Ariz St
Ga St
Cinci
Buffalo
Miami
Tulane
Washington
WKU
Cal
Ga St
UGA
Ohio St
Tennessee
Wash St
Wisconsin
Utah
Iowa
Miss St
Mich St
Iowa St
K St
Kentucky
BYU
Ark St
Kent St
CMU
NC ATT
Clemson/Ohio St Winner

The are straight up, not ATS
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Thanks! You da man. just a couple notes b/c I'm sure people will be asking:

(1) Looks like you forgot A&M/Okie State
(2) You really calling for a Ga State upset (7 pt dogs) and that confident about it? - only asking b/c didn't see it elsewhere in the thread or on twitter


Appreciate all the hard work!
 
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CrimsonK said:
This is what I did in confidence pool. I spent more time clicking buttons than thinking about my picks or strategy. Highest to lowest:

App State
Pitt
LSU
Florida
ULL
UCF
Ohio
Bama
Penn State
Auburn
UNC
SMU
Ariz St
Ga St
Cinci
Buffalo
Miami
Tulane
Washington
WKU
Cal
Ga St
UGA
Ohio St
Tennessee
Wash St
Wisconsin
Utah
Iowa
Miss St
Mich St
Iowa St
K St
Kentucky
BYU
Ark St
Kent St
CMU
NC ATT
Clemson/Ohio St Winner

The are straight up, not ATS
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Thanks, CK!

You listed GA St twice, assume one of them is GA Southern?
 
CrimsonK said:
Knish pushed me over the edge on that one. With circa not opening everything this week, made hitting openers there easier for us as the scalpers were all scrambling to take early middle shots and didn't seem to have too much competition on the totals. We got everything we wanted, which hasn't happened in the past. We keep getting the best of it there but not the deserved results, so hoping the worm turns in the bowls!
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When are you and Knish going to start yalls Own podcast or show or whatever? Yall are 2 of my CFB faves knish is the man
 
KD2180 said:
When are you and Knish going to start yalls Own podcast or show or whatever? Yall are 2 of my CFB faves knish is the man
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Prob wouldn't happen, but if I were ever gonna do a betting centric CFB pod, it would be with him. I have never talked to him about it though. I personally don't have the desire to do one right now. I've guested on diff ones over the past few years which can be fun, but I am already so busy with content creation I can't handle another medium right now. Podcasts are def more efficient than writing though.
 
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