NCAAF 19/20 Bowl Thread

[KD2180]

Incredible call sir. Thank You.

Anyone else still misty-eyed thinking about how easy CK got us all Robert Downey Jr-rich off all those Pickens props lmao

 

[CrimsonK]

Prop:

elijah cooks over 67.5 rec yards -120

 

[Zeke]

Uggh, I see 75.5 over -160.

This point spread is getting crazy, total is sky rocketing also.

 

[B.A.R.]

Prop:

elijah cooks over 67.5 rec yards -120

How does he do it??

 

[Frank Costanza]

How does he do it??

 

[lumpy19]

 

[Zeke]

Glad I laid the 60 cents.

The dude rattles of player's names like they are household. I've never heard of most of them, let alone know what team they are on. Fuckin' solid!

 

[RMR]

26-8 on prop bets if I counted correctly...amazing!

 

[CrimsonK]

Another fun win! Not sure if I’ll have anything else the rest of the bowl season. Will post if I decide to add anything. I’ll be sure to check back in again either way. Hope everybody has a good weekend!

 

[Cappingchubster11]

Another fun win! Not sure if I’ll have anything else the rest of the bowl season. Will post if I decide to add anything. I’ll be sure to check back in again either way. Hope everybody has a good weekend!

Thanks for the great season CK. Question, have you posted your thoughts on the national championship? Can’t seem to find them. I know you may not bet the game but your insights are always appreciated.

-Chub

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks for the great season CK. Question, have you posted your thoughts on the national championship? Can’t seem to find them. I know you may not bet the game but your insights are always appreciated.

-Chub

I haven’t. I may share them closer to kickoff but I’m not sure I will. I’ve found that I enjoy just watching the big game without action. I haven’t really thought much about the game. I do nfl scouting through the fantasy football lens every January and that is about to consume all my discretionary football time.

 

[twinkie13]

He’s just an LSU fan guys

He’s just gonna enjoy this one

 

[Bossman71]

Great season CK. Do you plan to post your draft/combine plays on here at all? Thanks again!

 

[CrimsonK]

Great season CK. Do you plan to post your draft/combine plays on here at all? Thanks again!

Thanks. I will prob just post them on twitter. I usually take a good chunk of year away from CTG, not because it isn’t a great site, but because I’m easily distracted and I need to put up some boundaries to help me stay focused on the things I’m working on. I get a lot of questions between those mediums and prefer they are consolidated in one space just for my own ease.

 

[pressitup]

COngrats on a great year sir.
Thanks for sharing your work .

 

[CrimsonK]

Props:

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 catches +100
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 5.5 catches +110
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 49.5 rec yards -114

 

[twinkie13]

Props:

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 catches +100
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 5.5 catches +110
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 49.5 rec yards -114

You see any Curry props?

 

[2daBank]

Props:

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 catches +100
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 5.5 catches +110
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 49.5 rec yards -114

Pretty much exactly what I was thinking after watching how open dobbins was out the backfield.

 

[CrimsonK]

You see any Curry props?

No, I doubt we see any on him, but it's possible. I'll let you know.

 

[B.A.R.]

Props:

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 catches +100
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 5.5 catches +110
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 49.5 rec yards -114

Like all three but LOVE the Tee play.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks as always for the insights / analysis. Simply fantastic stuff.

 

[KD2180]

Props:

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 catches +100
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 5.5 catches +110
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 49.5 rec yards -114

Thoughts on Higgins O5.5 receptions?

 

[CrimsonK]

Thoughts on Higgins O5.5 receptions?

I played em all the way up to over 8.5, but with props it's always a matter of cost. I think he prob gets it, but I wouldnt play it at the prices available.

 

[PaintCrew]

Props:

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 catches +100
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 5.5 catches +110
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 49.5 rec yards -114

I also sprinkled trinkets on CEH alt rec yards overs all the way up to O114 at +1121 to go with O64, O74, O84, O94, and O104 at various plus $.

 

[KD2180]

Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Week 9: 14-16 (-3.85 units)
Week 10: 22-10 (+15.02 units)
Week 11: 18-10 (+8.05 units)
Week 12: 22-15 (+7.42 units)
Week 13: 35-19 (+16.59 units)
Week 14: 30-26 (+4.65 units)
Week 15: 10-8 (+0.24 units)
Week 16: 2-0 (+2.00 units)
Bowls: 50-25 (+25.02 units)
Overall: 397-269 (+122.64 units)

Week 16:

Navy +13 v. Army -120 (1 unit)
Army/Navy Under 45 (1 unit)

Bowls:

Friday Dec 20

Buff/Char Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Charlotte/Buffalo Under 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Jaret Patterson Over 138.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
Buff/Char Long TD over 46.5 yards -115
Buffalo -4.5 v. Charlotte -111 (1 unit)
Kent State +9 v. Utah State -110 (1.5 units)
Kent State ML +265 (.50 unit)
Kent State/Utah State Under 36.5 1H -104 (1 unit)

6-2 (+3.64 units)

Saturday Dec 21

Jonathan ward under 80.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
Georgia Southern -5 v. Liberty -110 (1 unit)
Frankie Hickson over 64.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
JD King over 74.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
SMU PK @ FAU -110 (2 units)
Anthony Jones Over 77.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
Washington -3 v Boise -110 (1.5 units)
UAB/App Over 44.5 -110 (1.5 units)

4-4 (-0.70 units)

Monday Dec 23

Tuesday Dec 24

BYU/Hawaii Over 62 -110 (1 unit)
Matt Bushman over 3 rec -120 (1 unit)

2-0 (+2.00 units)

Thursday Dec 26

Miami -6 v. La Tech -105 (1 unit)
Amik Robertson to play independence bowl: No -210 (1 unit)

1-1 (-0.05 units)

Friday Dec 27

UNC -4 v Temple -110 (2 units)
Mich St/Wake Over 48.5 -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State +7 v. aTm -108 (1 unit)
Branden Mack over 4.5 catches -120
Branden Mack over 64.5 rec yards -120
Cody White over 5 catches -120
Cody White over 69.5 rec yards -120
Dru Brown under 215.5 pass yards -114
Dru Brown under 20.5 completions -114
Dillon Stoner over 62.5 rec yards -114
Isaiah Spiller over 14.5 carries -118

7-4 (+3.36 units)

Saturday Dec 28

Iowa State +6.5 v Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)
Brock Purdy Under 319.5 passing yards -120
Penn St Under 61.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Penn State -6.5 v Memphis -108 (1.5 units)
LSU -13 v. Oklahoma -108 (1 unit)
Oklahoma +14 v LSU -110 (1 unit)
CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 rec -114
CeeDee Lamb Over 99.5 rec yards -114
Ohio State +1 v. Clemson -110 (1 unit)

4-5 (-1.60 units)

Monday Dec 30

WKU -2.5 v. WMU -108 (1 unit)
Chatarius Atwell Over 99.5 rec yards -120 (1 unit)
Van Jefferson Over 40.5 rec yards -120 (1 unit)
UVA/UF Over 51 -110 (1.5 units)

4-0 (+4.5 units)

Tuesday Dec 31

Kentucky/VT Long TD over 41.5 yards -115 (1 unit)
Arizona State -3/3.5 v FSU -113 avg (2.5 units)
FSU +4 v. Arizona State -108 (1 unit)
FSU/ASU Under 55 -108 (1.5 units)
Kyle Williams Over 4 catches -120
Kyle Williams Over 40.5 rec yards -120
Tamorrion Terry Over 4.5 catches -120
Tra Barnett under 110.5 rush yards -110
Xazavian Valladay Over 100.5 rush yards -130

7-2 (+6.72 units)

Wednesday Jan 1

Bama/Michigan Over 54 -110 (1.5 units)
Alabama -7 v. Michigan -108 (1 unit)
Shea Patterson Over 214.5 pass yards -114 (1 unit)
Minnesota/Auburn Over 49 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon/Wisconsin Over 46.5 -105 (1 unit)
Oregon/Wisconsin Under 52 -105 (1 unit)
Johnny Johnson III Over 4.5 catches +100 (1 unit)
Quintez Cephus over 4.5 rec -120 (1 unit)
Baylor +8.5 v UGA -110 (1 unit)
Georgia -5 v. Baylor -108 (1 unit)
George Pickens Over 45.5 rec yards -114 (1 unit)
George Pickens over 3.5 catches -130 (1 unit)
George Pickens over 4.5 catches +151 (1 unit)
D’Andre Swift Under 99.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)

10-4 (+5.71 units)

Thursday Jan 2

Cincinnati/BC Under 54 -108 (1 unit)
Tennessee/Indiana Over 48 -110 (1.5 units)
Tennessee/Indiana Under 55 -115 (1 unit)
Jarrett Guarantano Over 200.5 pass yards +100 (1 unit)

3-1 (+1.35 units)

Friday Jan 3

Ohio/Nevada Over 54 -110 (1.5 units)
Ohio -6 v Nevada -110 (1.5 units)
elijah cooks over 67.5 rec yards -120 (1 unit)

2-1 (+0.85 units)

Saturday Jan 4

Monday Jan 6

Monday Jan 13

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 catches +100
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 5.5 catches +110
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 49.5 rec yards -114

1-2 (-1 units)

Bowls: 50-25 (+25.02 units)

Hell of a bowl SZN and helluvan overall year. Thanks for all your help CK!!!

 

[Bossman71]

What another great szn CK! Just out of curiosity your CLV is insane looking throughout years past! Have you ever tracked/backtested or any idea how you think your overall season results would differ if you used closing lines?

 

[CrimsonK]

What another great szn CK! Just out of curiosity your CLV is insane looking throughout years past! Have you ever tracked/backtested or any idea how you think your overall season results would differ if you used closing lines?

Thanks! I don't. Not a great use of my time, IMO. I know I have lots of CLV, and I know it's a good recipe for me to keep betting bad numbers and hoping the results continue to follow suit. I try not to get too introspective and start investing too much time into stuff that doesn't either a) excite me or b) put food on the table. I don't think it would be possible to hit at 60ish percent on 1,000+ plays without approaching CFB the way I do, and that's by betting GOYs, openers, and props. As long as I'm able to continue doing so, my edge should stay pretty significant. Imagine my record against closing lines would be a lot worse, but still profitable.

 

[Bossman71]

Thanks! I don't. Not a great use of my time, IMO. I know I have lots of CLV, and I know it's a good recipe for me to keep betting bad numbers and hoping the results continue to follow suit. I try not to get too introspective and start investing too much time into stuff that doesn't either a) excite me or b) put food on the table. I don't think it would be possible to hit at 60ish percent on 1,000+ plays without approaching CFB the way I do, and that's by betting GOYs, openers, and props. As long as I'm able to continue doing so, my edge should stay pretty significant. Imagine my record against closing lines would be a lot worse, but still profitable.

Wonderful answer man! And I couldn’t agree more. I was just curious if that was something you may of tracked to see how you did vs closing line. But certainly understand your approach and agree it is the best way to be the most profitable in CFB.

cant wait for next year