NCAAF 19/20 Bowl Thread

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Week 9: 14-16 (-3.85 units)
Week 10: 22-10 (+15.02 units)
Week 11: 18-10 (+8.05 units)
Week 12: 22-15 (+7.42 units)
Week 13: 35-19 (+16.59 units)
Week 14: 30-26 (+4.65 units)
Week 15: 10-8 (+0.24 units)
Week 16: 2-0 (+2.00 units)
Bowls: 50-25 (+25.02 units)
Overall: 397-269 (+122.64 units)

Week 16:

Navy +13 v. Army -120 (1 unit)
Army/Navy Under 45 (1 unit)

Bowls:

Friday Dec 20

Buff/Char Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Charlotte/Buffalo Under 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Jaret Patterson Over 138.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
Buff/Char Long TD over 46.5 yards -115
Buffalo -4.5 v. Charlotte -111 (1 unit)
Kent State +9 v. Utah State -110 (1.5 units)
Kent State ML +265 (.50 unit)
Kent State/Utah State Under 36.5 1H -104 (1 unit)

6-2 (+3.64 units)

Saturday Dec 21

Jonathan ward under 80.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
Georgia Southern -5 v. Liberty -110 (1 unit)
Frankie Hickson over 64.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
JD King over 74.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
SMU PK @ FAU -110 (2 units)
Anthony Jones Over 77.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
Washington -3 v Boise -110 (1.5 units)
UAB/App Over 44.5 -110 (1.5 units)

4-4 (-0.70 units)

Monday Dec 23

Tuesday Dec 24

BYU/Hawaii Over 62 -110 (1 unit)
Matt Bushman over 3 rec -120 (1 unit)

2-0 (+2.00 units)

Thursday Dec 26

Miami -6 v. La Tech -105 (1 unit)
Amik Robertson to play independence bowl: No -210 (1 unit)

1-1 (-0.05 units)

Friday Dec 27

UNC -4 v Temple -110 (2 units)
Mich St/Wake Over 48.5 -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State +7 v. aTm -108 (1 unit)
Branden Mack over 4.5 catches -120
Branden Mack over 64.5 rec yards -120
Cody White over 5 catches -120
Cody White over 69.5 rec yards -120
Dru Brown under 215.5 pass yards -114
Dru Brown under 20.5 completions -114
Dillon Stoner over 62.5 rec yards -114
Isaiah Spiller over 14.5 carries -118

7-4 (+3.36 units)

Saturday Dec 28

Iowa State +6.5 v Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)
Brock Purdy Under 319.5 passing yards -120
Penn St Under 61.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Penn State -6.5 v Memphis -108 (1.5 units)
LSU -13 v. Oklahoma -108 (1 unit)
Oklahoma +14 v LSU -110 (1 unit)
CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 rec -114
CeeDee Lamb Over 99.5 rec yards -114
Ohio State +1 v. Clemson -110 (1 unit)

4-5 (-1.60 units)

Monday Dec 30

WKU -2.5 v. WMU -108 (1 unit)
Chatarius Atwell Over 99.5 rec yards -120 (1 unit)
Van Jefferson Over 40.5 rec yards -120 (1 unit)
UVA/UF Over 51 -110 (1.5 units)

4-0 (+4.5 units)

Tuesday Dec 31

Kentucky/VT Long TD over 41.5 yards -115 (1 unit)
Arizona State -3/3.5 v FSU -113 avg (2.5 units)
FSU +4 v. Arizona State -108 (1 unit)
FSU/ASU Under 55 -108 (1.5 units)
Kyle Williams Over 4 catches -120
Kyle Williams Over 40.5 rec yards -120
Tamorrion Terry Over 4.5 catches -120
Tra Barnett under 110.5 rush yards -110
Xazavian Valladay Over 100.5 rush yards -130

7-2 (+6.72 units)

Wednesday Jan 1

Bama/Michigan Over 54 -110 (1.5 units)
Alabama -7 v. Michigan -108 (1 unit)
Shea Patterson Over 214.5 pass yards -114 (1 unit)
Minnesota/Auburn Over 49 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon/Wisconsin Over 46.5 -105 (1 unit)
Oregon/Wisconsin Under 52 -105 (1 unit)
Johnny Johnson III Over 4.5 catches +100 (1 unit)
Quintez Cephus over 4.5 rec -120 (1 unit)
Baylor +8.5 v UGA -110 (1 unit)
Georgia -5 v. Baylor -108 (1 unit)
George Pickens Over 45.5 rec yards -114 (1 unit)
George Pickens over 3.5 catches -130 (1 unit)
George Pickens over 4.5 catches +151 (1 unit)
D’Andre Swift Under 99.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)

10-4 (+5.71 units)

Thursday Jan 2

Cincinnati/BC Under 54 -108 (1 unit)
Tennessee/Indiana Over 48 -110 (1.5 units)
Tennessee/Indiana Under 55 -115 (1 unit)
Jarrett Guarantano Over 200.5 pass yards +100 (1 unit)

3-1 (+1.35 units)

Friday Jan 3

Ohio/Nevada Over 54 -110 (1.5 units)
Ohio -6 v Nevada -110 (1.5 units)
elijah cooks over 67.5 rec yards -120 (1 unit)

2-1 (+0.85 units)

Saturday Jan 4

Monday Jan 6

Monday Jan 13

Tee Higgins Over 4.5 catches +100
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 5.5 catches +110
Clyde Edwards-Healire Over 49.5 rec yards -114

1-2 (-1 units)

Bowls: 50-25 (+25.02 units)
 
Last edited:
Two games played in futures market:

Navy +13 v. Army -120 (1 unit)

Ohio State +1 v. Clemson -110 (1 unit) (Hypothetical CFP, must play for action, any round)
 
5 Dimes
Clemson vs Ohio State - Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ
Sat 12/28243 Clemson -2 -110-130
8:00PM244 Ohio State +2 -110+110
 
I’d say nice year, but you just do the damn thing bro.

Am I crazy, or as a whole this is a terrible bowl game schedule?
 
SMU PK @ FAU -110 (2 units)
Washington -3 v Boise -110 (1.5 units)
UNC -4 v Temple -110 (2 units)
Iowa State +6.5 v Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)
Arizona State -3 v FSU -110 (1 unit)
Baylor +8.5 v UGA -110 (1 unit)
Ohio -6 v Nevada -110 (1.5 units)
 
twinkie13 said:
I’d say nice year, but you just do the damn thing bro.

Am I crazy, or as a whole this is a terrible bowl game schedule?
Click to expand...
Thanks, dawg. Feels weird, but find myself rootin for yall. I got a Burrow 80/1 ticket, which has somehow made me more endeared to the tigahs.

Ya, it's a bad bowl slate. Only a few games that I'm legit excited to watch. Bowl experience is changing now with coaches leaving and players sitting, etc. I won't bet on them as much as I used to, for many reasons.
 
Buff/Char Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
UAB/App Over 44.5 -110 (1.5 units)
BYU/Hawaii Over 62 -110 (1 unit)
Mich St/Wake Over 48.5 -110 (1 unit)
Penn St/Memphis Under 61.5 -110 (1.5 units)
UVA/UF Over 51 -110 (1.5 units)
Bama/Michigan Over 54 -110 (1.5 units)
Minnesota/Auburn Over 49 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon/Wisconsin Over 46.5 -105 (1 unit)
Ohio/Nevada Over 54 -110 (1.5 units)
 
B.A.R. said:
Good stuff, that was a terrible opener on Mich Bama...
Click to expand...
Knish pushed me over the edge on that one. With circa not opening everything this week, made hitting openers there easier for us as the scalpers were all scrambling to take early middle shots and didn't seem to have too much competition on the totals. We got everything we wanted, which hasn't happened in the past. We keep getting the best of it there but not the deserved results, so hoping the worm turns in the bowls!
 
CrimsonK said:
Knish pushed me over the edge on that one. With circa not opening everything this week, made hitting openers there easier for us as the scalpers were all scrambling to take early middle shots and didn't seem to have too much competition on the totals. We got everything we wanted, which hasn't happened in the past. We keep getting the best of it there but not the deserved results, so hoping the worm turns in the bowls!
Click to expand...
It's off a minimum of 5.5 or where I "thought" it would open. I have it valued a bit higher. Obviously guys sitting out might affect things but both teams will score in 30's with no problem. Good work fellas.
 
Will post my twitter writeups on here after I do them. Keep in mind, I'm speaking twitter 240:

Buffalo v. Charlotte (+5/57) Game played in Bahamas. Means we should expect a good bit of wind. Both teams bowling which means a lot to both programs. Don't see a motivational edge for either team. No pronounced coaching edges, both guys are going to be in line for bigger jobs. Don't see either team having players sit. Perhaps Charlotte's talented DE Highsmith who will be an NFL player. He would be a significant loss. Buffalo has an excellent OL. They are top 25 in run blocking and even better pass blocking, but they dont pass much. They dont need to. They are top 10 rush offense and bottom 10 pass offense. Charlotte's DL and rush defense is bottom ten-ish nationally. The Buff OL against Char DL is amongst the largest mismatches of the entire bowl slate. It prob is the biggest in any game, actually. Highsmith sits, it def is. The other problem for Charlotte is that while their pass defense is much better, much is a result of them getting run over instead of passed on, but when they do give up pass completions, they tend to be gashes against teams that dont often gash. Good news is Buff pass off is a team that doesn't gash, so something's gotta give. In his last game Buff RB Jaret Patterson ran for 26-298-6 (NOT A TYPO). He will hope to exceed that here. Looking on other side of ball, Charlotte is much more offensively balanced. They are a run-first team, but can pass. That's good news, because they will need to. Buffalo's rush defense is top five nationally, and gives up less than 100 ypg. They are above average in pass defense and sack the QB like a top 10 unit. Charlotte OL doesnt have any weak spots, they run block well and pass block well. It should be a good trench matchup on that side with good on good, unlike when Buff offense is on field. Charlotte QB is dual-threat. He has some skill outisde at WR, but rarely has to use them. He will here. Will wind impact throwing much? TBD, but prob at least slightly. If wind has a major impact, then Buffalo could do ugly things to them. It's a MAC secondary, so guys getting behind the defense with regularity wouldn't be a surprise at all. I can't ignore the edge Buffalo has on the ground. I've played both the over 55.5 and Buffalo -4.5. These conf are regularly pitted against one another & the conditions exist on the island each year, & that hasn't stopped this from getting pointsy. A team has scored 35+ in 4 of 5 years of existence. Fun game to kick us off, slow pace is concern on total, but I'll go 35-27 Buff.
 
Kent State v. Utah State (-8.5/65) Game played in Dallas at Frisco Bowl. First bowl trip for KSU since 2012, second since 1972. 0-3 all time, chance to achieve history. Utah State third bowl in row, romped N Texas last season. I think we can rationally assume KSU most motivated. As far as coaching goes, I'm big fan of Sean Lewis. I'm not a fan of what Gary Anderson did this season at Utah State. They turned over a lot from a good team, but they were very underwhelming. I think that there is a coaching advantage for KSU to couple with the motivation. KSU balanced on offense, but ground game is most effective. Theyve got dual threat QB. They don't protect him well at all but they ran block effectively. USU slightly below avg sacking the QB. They are better stopping the pass than the run, and most opponents prefer to run v them. Overall the rush defense isnt terrible on a YPC basis, but they are 100+ nationally in rush yards allowed. Theyve given up nearly 300 rushing yards in both of their last two against Boise and New Mexico. KSU gonna run it until they stop it and if they come up too much, this is the Baylor offense, so they are gonna take shots and try to pop em deep. This will be the fastest tempo offense they've faced since the opener against Wake, where they didn't manage it particularly well. As far as the USU offense goes, they went from top 40 rush off LY to bottom 30 rush off this year. Thats unfortunate against KSU rush defense which is about as bad as there is in CFB. While USU has been bad in that area, they have some explosive players and they are going to exceed their average. KSU pass def better statistically, but thats bc teams ont need to pass as much which the way they can run. Their YPP against pass is awful. Here's where things get interesting. I like Kent State getting two scores as a standalone wager, regardless of who USU has at QB. The upshot of this bet is that Ags QB Jordan Love could sit out. He's been rumored to be considering the NFL or a grad transfer. If he plays, it would actually help bolster his stock because he could have a bunch of success, but playing in a meaningless bowl game if he's considering the league and getting top 100 grades from the advisory board then it would make sense for him to sit. It would have been smart if he decided to sit out forego this whole season and go to the league. There would be much less doubt surrounding his capabilities, but he now has two bad years out of three on his resume. I don't know what he will do, but I do feel confident in saying that his backup isnt likely to be an NFL Draft pick. Losing a multi-year starter at QB for a G5 program can often be an offensive death knell for a season. I was gonna take KSU +8 but waited. Then it went to 9 & I decided to wait for 10 with rumors today of Love poss being checked out, I figured it unlikely, and so far I was right. It got to 9.5 and is now down to 8.5 and prob gonna be one score very soon. I took the 9 this evening and also locked in KSU +265 ML for 1/3 of the +9. Runnin dog. Ill go Flashes 34-31.
 
lumpy19 said:
I always bet a little extra when you're involved in a bama game
Click to expand...
Even with the guys that are gonna sit for Bama, it's hard to ignore Michigan's results against the two highest quality teams they faced: 35-14 and 56-27. I'm prob being a bit more conservative than I should be, but the list of Bama guys sitting could end up being pretty absurd. We are in uncharted territory as this is first time since the bowl sitting started that Bama was not playing in a meaningful bowl.
 
CrimsonK said:
Even with the guys that are gonna sit for Bama, it's hard to ignore Michigan's results against the two highest quality teams they faced: 35-14 and 56-27. I'm prob being a bit more conservative than I should be, but the list of Bama guys sitting could end up being pretty absurd. We are in uncharted territory as this is first time since the bowl sitting started that Bama was not playing in a meaningful bowl.
Click to expand...
Definitely going to be interesting.
 
CrimsonK said:
Even with the guys that are gonna sit for Bama, it's hard to ignore Michigan's results against the two highest quality teams they faced: 35-14 and 56-27. I'm prob being a bit more conservative than I should be, but the list of Bama guys sitting could end up being pretty absurd. We are in uncharted territory as this is first time since the bowl sitting started that Bama was not playing in a meaningful bowl.
Click to expand...
Only thing I wonder about is how focused and motivated they will be after so many years of being in the CFP. Probably good for them that they're playing a big name program like Michigan.
 
CrimsonK said:
SMU PK @ FAU -110 (2 units)
Washington -3 v Boise -110 (1.5 units)
UNC -4 v Temple -110 (2 units)
Iowa State +6.5 v Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)
Arizona State -3 v FSU -110 (1 unit)
Baylor +8.5 v UGA -110 (1 unit)
Ohio -6 v Nevada -110 (1.5 units)
Click to expand...

Hell of a year CK! Looking forward to Carrying over into bowl season...

some of those lines are different on my book. What would you recommend playing these following lines? If any plays at all?


SMU -3.5
UNC -4.5
Iowa St +3.5
ASU -3.5?
Buffalo -6.5

Thanks bro!
 
skanless13 said:
Only thing I wonder about is how focused and motivated they will be after so many years of being in the CFP. Probably good for them that they're playing a big name program like Michigan.
Click to expand...
I think this is the challenge with any bowl game. Some appear to be more obvious let down spots than others, but I’ve found gauging motivation to be a challenge. In recent years, it’s felt like it’s gone totally opposite of conventional wisdom, at times.
 
AliShaheed said:
Jordan Love playing but line still dropping towards Kent St...does that surprise you?
Click to expand...
Ya, it was surprising initially. They are starting to take more money now. I wish he wasn’t playing, but feel fine with two scores. ML less appealing now, but I’ll gamble.
 
KD2180 said:
Hell of a year CK! Looking forward to Carrying over into bowl season...

some of those lines are different on my book. What would you recommend playing these following lines? If any plays at all?


SMU -3.5
UNC -4.5
Iowa St +3.5
ASU -3.5?
Buffalo -6.5

Thanks bro!
Click to expand...
I think they all will still cover, but I would just adjust bet sizes to your personal comfort level. Historically, the spread seems to come in to play infrequently in bowl games. Im not advocating being cavalier with numbers, just something I recall. Im worries much less about my CLV on bowl games.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Can your boy Bowden carry UK single handedly with ZERO passing game vs VT with a month to prepare and stack the box?
Click to expand...
Good question, I would say it's unlikely. I also wonder if they don't play Bowden more at WR this game? Taking a pounding as wildcat QB before entering NFL as a WR is a -EV move. He loves the team and program though, so he may not care about injury. Its not a game I care to bet on right now.
 
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