NCAAF 08/09 Bowl Thread

Bowl Record: 7-5 (+.3 units)

Win on 1H Under in FSU/Wisky

added CAL/Miami 1H UNDER 25 (1 unit)

Similar school of thought with this game, Harris may be rusty and Cal has a solid defense. I think this FSU game shows the strength of some of these ACC defenses. I'm playing it 1H UNDER as I believe both teams strengths are on defense and there should be some running the football to chew clock and a period of settling in on offense...
 
Thanks for the 1st half under in the Wisky game. You an asset to this forum, glad you made it man.

cheers
 
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
Bowl Record: 9-6 (+1.2 units)

Still not good, but better. Hope everyone had a good day. GL
 
Nevada/Maryland

Nevada vs. Maryland

Quick Hitter: VK is very thorough in his write up so I'll be brief

I think Nevada will be more motivated. I don't like going against the Fridge when he is a dog but I think it's a good spot. The weather looks like it's gonna be nasty and that should really benefit Nevada, especially their defense. Their secondary has been terrible but I think that's where the weather becomes a factor. Maryland is not a great passing footbal team as Turner has been very erratic. They are 65th in passing offense and slightly worse in rush offense. I doubt they get the ground game going this game as Nevada is #3 in rush defense and only allow 74 rypg. So Maryland will more than likely be one dimensional and that immediately raises ared flag to me. No doubt the WAC has been awful and the ACC has looked good so far. Again, i keep going back to the weather but the Pistol offense under Kaepernick will probably be the more effective offense in this game as he is mobile and they are just so strong running the football averaging 291 rypg and 2nd in the nation. Maryland is poor in rush defense allowing 149 ypg. There is no doubt in my mind Nevada rushes for over 200 yards in this one. I think if Nevada takes away the run as I think they will their talented D line will continue to spend time in the back field as they are Top 10 in Sacks and TFL's.. I just think playing in Boise will benefit Nevada as most WAC teams play on turf and that will be the case in Boise. If it turns into a shootout I think Nevada has the upper hand with their potent offense as they average 17 ppg more than Maryland.

Nevada ML
1.25 units
 
Crimson, what do you think about the over in the oregon/OK State game? I don't see any team getting stopped very much, so I see this game going over 80 pts total pretty easily.....A little scary, many times when two offensive teams go against each other, the total goes UNDER pretty easily....let me know what you think, thanks and happy holidays
 
TailBait said:
Crimson, what do you think about the over in the oregon/OK State game? I don't see any team getting stopped very much, so I see this game going over 80 pts total pretty easily.....A little scary, many times when two offensive teams go against each other, the total goes UNDER pretty easily....let me know what you think, thanks and happy holidays
Click to expand...

Happy holidays Tailbait..

I think there could be plenty of scoring in this one. Both teams obviously very strong offensively and neither are strong on defense. While neither team rank very high defensively the strengths of both teams are their rush defenses. Ranking 23 and 26th respectively.. I think Oregon has a legit rush defense based on the PAc 10 and the strength of a number of their rush offenses that feature 6 teams in the Top 50. On the other side Okie State ranks 26th in rush defense but I feel these numbers are a bit skewed, they have 5 teams in the Top 50 but I think some of those teams have success on the ground due to their potent passing attacks that forces teams to sit back in coverages. Both teams will run the football effectively I belive but I think oregon has a slight edge as they run a fairly unusal offense that Okie State may not have seen much of in the regular season. Both teams could set up short fields with above average special teams, especially Okie State with Bryant and Cox being so dangerous on KR's and PR's.. The only problem with a number this high is that both teams are so run heavy and just a few FG's instead of TD's could be the difference. If both rush defenses step up big and they start airing it out some then I think there is a good chance this one gets over the number. Neither team are good red zones defenses and are in the bottom third nationally. Gun to my head I play OVER but I would not be surprised if the game finished in the sixties at the same time. I think this game would be better watching the 1st half and seeing what kind of tempo both teams set and how they match up with one another if I were going to be getting involved in a total. Maybe a 2H total would have more value because i could see this game playing out a number of different ways. Hope this helped some. GL
 
Crimson, don't you think Oregon and Oklahoma State's rankings in rushing defense is reflective of the teams they play against? I think they rank high in rushing defense bc they played teams that are pass happy (especially Oklahoma State). I expect both teams to be able to run the ball all day long....You touched on this a little, but I don't think it can be overstated that these two teams, especially Oklahoma State went against teams that were pass happy....thanks for the writeups, definitly like the way you're thinking
 
I grew up in Texas (huge horns fan) and now go to Arizona, so Big 12 and Pac 10 are the conferences I follow the most and know the most. I think the Oregon team is overrated; IMO the Pac 10 was horrible this year....No way would Oregon State be going to a bowl game if they were in the Big XII, remember the Penn State game?
 
TailBait said:
I grew up in Texas (huge horns fan) and now go to Arizona, so Big 12 and Pac 10 are the conferences I follow the most and know the most. I think the Oregon team is overrated; IMO the Pac 10 was horrible this year....No way would Oregon State be going to a bowl game if they were in the Big XII, remember the Penn State game?
Click to expand...

I certainly do remember the PSU/Oregon State game. I also think that you have to factor in the cross country travel for Oregon State that was an early game East Coast I believe for a team returning just 10 starters from last season and 45 lettermen. That was the second game of the season for OSU and I think they certainly grew as a team once Quizz started running the way he did. You have a mutual opponent for this game in Oregon State as well. I don't think anyone can deny that was a very poor spot situationally for OSU at Happy Valley. Oregon went to Corvallis and put up 694 yards of offense on Oregon State after OSU had its legs under them and the team matured. I'm on a tangent about PSU/OSU and that's really not the point. I agree that the PAC-10 was bad this year but outside of Okie State, Okie, Texas and TT what was so impressive about the Big 12. Okie State didn't exactly wow me against Washington State, arguably the worst team in the FBS this season...Okie State lost to the teams that had equal or better talent than them and by a combined 70 points in those three games. I certainly think that the Big 12 is by far the btter conference from top to bottom and I would be an idiot to argue otherwise. However, I do think that Okie State is a class below TT, UT, OU and the score lines back that up against those teams. I think that if Oregon can limit Dez Bryant then they win this game and maybe in fairly large fashion. That is certainly a big IF but it's the key IMO for Oregon to win. I think the line should be a PICK and I'll gladly take the 3. I also found an interesting trend that PAC 10 Bowl Dogs are 18-1 ATS against opponents who scored 34 or more points in their last game. I'm not big on trends but it certainly doesn't hurt Oregon's case. I'm looking forward to the game it's been circled for me since they announced the games.. I'm enjoying the discussion bro..
 
Both Oregon and Oklahoma State seem to be pretty similar to me, so I think the Big XII schedule and superior talent that they faced will have them better prepared than an Oregon team who played in the Pac 10. Since I go to Arizona and watch the pac 10 closely, I feel comfortable in saying that Baylor would give Oregon State a run for their money, definitly not lose by more than two scores
 
TailBait said:
Both Oregon and Oklahoma State seem to be pretty similar to me, so I think the Big XII schedule and superior talent that they faced will have them better prepared than an Oregon team who played in the Pac 10. Since I go to Arizona and watch the pac 10 closely, I feel comfortable in saying that Baylor would give Oregon State a run for their money, definitly not lose by more than two scores
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How do you feel about how Oregon State and Pitt will matchup then?

One of my best friends just graduated from Zona a few days ago.. He loved it there
 
Zona is alot of fun, haha if you're from alabama and had a friend graduate, I guarantee that I know who it is (Stephen?) if so he was my roomate hahah.....I think Pitt will cover against Oregon State bc they will be able to stop the run
 
TailBait said:
Zona is alot of fun, haha if you're from alabama and had a friend graduate, I guarantee that I know who it is (Stephen?) if so he was my roomate hahah.....I think Pitt will cover against Oregon State bc they will be able to stop the run
Click to expand...

I'm from Atlanta not from there so it wasn't stephen. His name is Adam, i think he was a Sig Ep there.

I kinda like Pitt as well at first glance, haven't gotten quite to it though
 
I don't see alot of points, but Pitt should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage and get enough rushing yards to win
 
VK, Yanks, Marlo...

Thanks guys. Tonights game is a big one for me. Either back to square one or I will be closer to where i feel I should be minus some tough beats. good luck fellas
 
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Bowl Record: 12-6 (+5.2 units)

2-0 today +3 units.. GL fellas
 
bull said:
I have Terps ML +127.
Pretty shitty ball game from what I've seen.
Click to expand...

I think I just missed this one capping wise on Nevada ML..

ACC > Whack

If Kap is not healthy I can't imagine the back up running the football as effectively as he did. And he was healthy most of 1H and looked out of his league. Especially if Maryland suspended players see the field and are fresh and hungry, it could make sure Maryland doesn't let up with their spark on the field if that's in fact the case..
 
<HR style="COLOR: rgb(209,209,225); BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(209,209,225)" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Bowl Record: 13-8 (+4.85 units)

1-2 on the day with both losses coming in the Nevada fiasco. Lost 2.35 units

Win on oregon +3 for 2 units.. Down .35 units on the day

Big 12 fade continues tomorrow as I'll be on the hunt for a 10 on minny.. Will play it regardless but may throw some extra on the Gophers if i get DD's.. Also got vandy +3.5 for a unit and will prob add some other plays.. GL
 
Houston -3 (-120 w/ hook)
1.2 units

Don't have much to say.. Very similar to Wake/Navy situationally, team with revenge facing a triple option twice in the same season. Houston seemed to really get it going offensively later in the year. Line seemed to hop over 3 without much resistance. Time for Houston to win a bowl game. Hopefully no hurricanes show up this time.. ( I backed AF in the first meeting this year) GL
 
I'm looking at Minny as well. Hate the way they didn't show up against Iowa in the last game at the Metrodome, but hoping they use that as extra motivation. For me, this is more a bet against Kansas as a DD fav than a play on Minny.

Not sure about Houston. I understand your angles, but its hard to bet against AF in the Armed Forces bowl. AF is the better team IMO and has been more impressive on the road and against common opponents. Good luck with both as I may sit the Hou/AF one out.
 
C-MAN said:
I'm looking at Minny as well. Hate the way they didn't show up against Iowa in the last game at the Metrodome, but hoping they use that as extra motivation. For me, this is more a bet against Kansas as a DD fav than a play on Minny.

Not sure about Houston. I understand your angles, but its hard to bet against AF in the Armed Forces bowl. AF is the better team IMO and has been more impressive on the road and against common opponents. Good luck with both as I may sit the Hou/AF one out.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%.. I think the game will be a shootout (AF/HOU) and Houston is better equipped offensively to put up points. Location big for Houston, I don't but into the Armed Forces aspect really for Air Force. GL today C Man
 
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