NCAAF 08/09 Bowl Thread

Great stuff here, CrimsonK...thanks man!

With you on TCU...I loved the Horned Frogs the instant I saw the line.

Also with you on Wake Forest. I firmly believe a healthy Swank will be the difference in this game.

GL on your plays bud!

:cheers:
 
Thanks Aztec, Good Luck to you as well. Glad to see you are leaning on NC State. Can't wait to watch the TCU game. I was originally leanin on BYU as I made them a favorite but I'm going to leave the side alone in that one, I saw you lean Zona. What do you think about the total in that one?

:cheers:
 
Added Notre Dame -1. I know it's bad business long term missing out on line value but it was one of those things where I struggled to bet ND unless I saw them as a favorite in this game. I made them the favorite but I just wanted to see the books acknowledge that as well. I know it's prob not logical and like I said bad business long term but the good news is I didn't miss any key numbers. Still waiting to back NC State(possible ML) and Memphis. GL
 
Memphis +12.5
1 unit

Looks like line is fallin on Pinny. Was hoping maybe it would climb but prob not gonna happen. Just locked it in at 12'
 
Added Notre Dame -1. I know it's bad business long term missing out on line value but it was one of those things where I struggled to bet ND unless I saw them as a favorite in this game. I made them the favorite but I just wanted to see the books acknowledge that as well. I know it's prob not logical and like I said bad business long term but the good news is I didn't miss any key numbers. Still waiting to back NC State(possible ML) and Memphis. GL


the line moved fast ... i had to get +1 at a vegas book as i missed the big move when it happened. One thing that is good is that the notre dame line has moved a lot with little resistance. might have to look but maybe the biggest move so far in bowl season. As long as you are getting the best of the close you are ok.
 
Sick writeups CrimsonK...

Good luck this bowl season; as you know, with you on TCU and Wake Forest. Still debating Memphis.
 
Thanks horses, Bob just moved memphis. I got lucky and hit NC State as soon as I saw it movin on the greek at one of my slower books.

NC State +8
2 units
 
Added Zona -3 with local. Going against my first instinct which was BYU. Few good cappers and discussion swayed my lean to Zona.
 
"First time caller" here in your thread, CrimsonK , and I'm very favorably impressed. For one thing, you bring out results and incidents that I had seen myself but had totally forgotten.
Thank you for all the hard work you put into this. I assume it's a labor of love.:tiphat:

But you and guys like Kyle work very hard at this stuff, and you don't have to share it but you do.

I have been looking for an expalnation for all the love I see for TCU against an undefeated team , and you have provided that.

Looks like you made a dynamite call on thats econd half Wake play. Nice going.
On Wake myself along with Fresno and Memphis.
Best of luck to you.
bull
 
Bull,

Thank you very much I appreciate the kind words. I'm afraid I can't be as thorough as Kyle but I will try my best. I'm just sky high cause it's bowl season. I think I stood up the entire game. Good luck to you as well and thanks again.

Bowl Record: 2-0 +2 units

Win on Wake -2.5 for 1 unit
Win on Wake -2.5 2H for 1 unit
 
Thanks Aztec, Good Luck to you as well. Glad to see you are leaning on NC State. Can't wait to watch the TCU game. I was originally leanin on BYU as I made them a favorite but I'm going to leave the side alone in that one, I saw you lean Zona. What do you think about the total in that one?

:cheers:

Dang...I'm more than a little late reading this. LOL!

Glad you were swayed to the Wildcats tho. Looks like you're off to a 4-1 start...well done bud!

I also can't wait for the Boise/TCU game! Might even go to the game on Tuesday, as I'm not workin, and my Dad is off too. I couldn't agree more with your assessment on the Horned Frogs.

GL in the coming weeks bro!

:shake:
 
Dang...I'm more than a little late reading this. LOL!

Ended up playing Zona. Was back and forth and all over the place on the Las Vegas Bowl. Was close to playing BYU, then was about to play the OVER.. then the snow came and was gonna lay off all together.. Then I remembered how I felt BYU was a fraud all season and despite me making them -3 I was willing to admit I was wrong and a 7-5 team from the PAC-10 which was 1-6 against MWC was a 3 point fav over a 10-2 game for a reason. I usually don't play games when I'm that back and forth but I like to factor in public perception and just looking at public betting %'s and the ESPN Bowl thing and everyone liking BYU in the ESPN bowl contest was enough to push me off the edge. That game gave me fits for the longest time, it was a rewarding win for sure. GL today Aztec

:cheers:
 
Ole Miss/TT

Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech

Cotton Bowl
January 2nd Dallas, TX

1. Coaching
This is an area that I'm sure people could make arguments for either side. I may be a bit biased being in SEC country but I have seen what Nutt is capable of in big games. The guy is a great motivator and game day coach. He seems to always have his teams up for playing the big games. He is sneaky in the sense that he is quick to do a lot of fakes on FG's and Punts and has had success with it. Also the inovator of the "Wild Hog" with the direct snap to his best athletes which he used quite a bit at Arkansas with McFadden. Mike Leach is a very sharp guy. You can tell he is intelligent and runs a very unique offense. So I ask myself, if I had either guy to coach my team for a big game.. Who would it be? ADVANTAGE: Ole Miss

2. Motivation
Location edge to TT without question. They also may eb playing with a chip on their should about not playing in a BCS game. However, I don't think they are a good enough football team to be playing in one. Ole Miss is a team with 14 wins in their last 4 season combined including a winless SEC campaign in 2007. Ole Miss has not been to a Bowl game since 2003 and none of their players have ever had the experience. TT has been to a bowl every year that their seniors have played there. I think the location is a big enough edge to balance out the other factors. I am tempted to give the edge to OM but I'll keep it even for the sake of discussion. ADVANTAGE: None


3. Key Upperclassmen
Both teams have some experience on their teams but I think that the edge goes to TT. Graham Harrell is the difference in this area. He is a good QB and the leader of this high-octane offense. TT returned 61 lettermen from last season while Ole Miss returned 48. ADVANTAGE: Texas Tech



4. Out of Conference Schedule

Ole Miss played:

Memphis: 41-24(Bowl team)
@ Wake Forest: 28-30 (Bowl team)
Samford: 34-10
La Monroe: 59-0

Texas Tech played:

Eastern Washington: 49-24
@ Nevada: 35-19 (Bowl Team)
SMU: 43-7
Massachusets: 56-14

ADVANTAGE: Ole Miss



5. Conference Strength
ADVANTAGE: Ole Miss


6. Simliar Matchups
Well, why not use the #1 and #2 teams in the countries and compare how each did on the road playing these teams. Both very potent offenses with UF having a distict edge defensively and on Special teams.

Ole Miss defeated Florida at the swamp 31-30 early in the season. They were +2 in TO's in that game and forced an offense that does not make many mistakes to make them. Ole Miss threw for 185 yards 2TD's and 1 INT. UF is 19th in pass defense and gave up 11 more yards than their average. OM ran for 140 yards on 38 carries. That is 35 more rushing yards than UF allowed on average but 43 below what OM averaged on offense. Florida had a big day passing the ball for 319 yards which is 107 above their average and 110 above what OM allows on average. UF rushed 35 times for 124 yards and 3 TD's. That is 105 less than UF averages and 41 more than the 83 that OM allows on average. Ole Miss made sure to make the most of TO's and capitalized on some very big plays on offense. Both teams got a lot of help from their KR men in that game. UF is 25-2 at home under HC Urban meyer

Texas Tech traveled to Norman in a pivotal game in the Big-12 and the Nat'l title picture as well. They feel a bit short 21-65 in that game. Oklahoma threw for 326 yards and 4 TD's which is 30 yards shy of their average but the back-ups got some work at the end of that game. TT allows 238 passing yards and Oklhoma went over that mark by almost 90 yards. Oklahoma ran for 299 yards that game which is 166 more yards than TT allows and and 94 yards over Oklahoma's average. Texas Tech had a good day passing the football as they threw for 361 yards which is 58 below their average and 108 over what Oklahoma's 99th ranked pass defense allows on average. TT rushed 22 times for 45 yards which is 73 less than their average and 61 less than Oklahoma allows on defense. TT was -2 in TO's but it prob would not have made much of a difference in this game as it was one-sided from the opening kick.

ADVANTAGE: Ole Miss

7. Individual matchups/Overall

The key for me in this game is balance. Who has the most balnced all around game that will be able to compete should the opposing team take away their strength offensively or attack their weakness defensively. Texas Tech is an offensive machine. They are #1 in passing offense, #4 in Total offense and #4 in scoring offense averaging 44 ppg. There is one major area of their offense that makes me raise my eye brows, their rushing game. There was a ton of talk this season about the reason TT was having more success than their usual 8 win season was their new found running game. The running game sure never impressed me when I saw them play. They averaged 118 ypg on the ground and ranked 96 nationally. Between both Batch and Woods either of them only had a 100 yard rushing day once and that was Woods against Massachusets. Their passing attack is good enough to swamp most of the teams they played this year. As a matter of a fact it was enough to beat 11 teams this season. On defense they are not very good. This was another area that many were saying was new and improved and was a big difference in this team and year's past. They were the 72nd total defense allowing 371 ypg and 26 points. I know that the Big 12 had some potent offenses but no matter which way you slice it, those are not good numbers. They rank 44th in rushing defense and allow 133 ypg. The D line was better against the pass than stopping the run though. The numbers may not indictae that as they have the 91st pass defense in the nation but they got after the QB pretty well on passing downs(which is almost every down in the Big 12). They racked up some nice sacks but were poor in the TFL category. The KR and PR's were good for TT and they didn't have to use the Punter a whole lot with the scoring that they did. They had all sorts of problems kicking FG's and eventually got a kid out of the stands to take care of those duties and he did a nice job when called upon. I don't believe they will be able to run the football on OM and the extra prep time for the aerial assualt for OM should be a huge advantage that most teams have not had.

Ole Miss was the 38th total offense just shy of 400 ypg. They are beter running the football as they put up 183 ypg on the ground and rank 31st nationally. They spread the ball around to a variety of backs including McCluster in the "Wild Rebel". They are lead by transfer QB Jevan Snead who I believe was a Top 3 QB in the SEC and will be the best QB in conference next season. Snead had a 23:12 ratio and threw for 2,470 yards this season. They averages 215 passing ypg this season and averaged 30 ppg. They really do have a nice balance on offense as I believe they can be very effective showing a number of different looks on offense. The defense is the strength of this team. They are the 15th total defense allowing 293 ypg. They are better against the run than the pass but the defensive line is a Top 5 unit in the nation IMO. They could arguably have the best D-Line in the country. They are led by Junior DE Greg Hardy who did not have a great year statistically and that can be attributed to missing some games due to injury. They are the 6th ranked rushing defense and only allow 83 ypg on the ground. They are middle of the pack on pass defense ranking 61st and allowing 209 ypg. The secondary is a talented group and improved as the year went on. They are very good in getting into the back field and creating havoc. They rank 5th nationally in sacks and 1st in TFL's. This will be a great matchup with TT's O Line who ahs been very good protecting Harrell and giving him time to find a great WR core. TO's hurt OM earlier in the year but they did a better job preventing them offensively and creating them defensively as they wree +6 in their final 4 games down the stretch. Their ST's unit is solid from top to bottom. I was really impressed with their punter although he did not have incredible numbers at 36 ypp. K Shene was 16/19 and 41/53 in his career.

No one will deny TT has plethora of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Crabtree and Harrell are a deadly combo and that can then be trickled down to excellent play by their O line. The O line for TT will prob be the biggest factor in this game in my mind and if they can fight off a great D line for OM. Oklahoma's D line really disruped Harrell and the score line is further evidence of that. I think OM can almost completely take away the run from TT which leach is quick to abandon anyway. OM outscored their opponents 152-20 in their final 4 games. The offense really started clicking under Snead and the defense was as strong as ever. Granted, none of those teams had a passing attack even close to what TT will present. TT had an incredibly difficult schedule down the stretch and I take that into consideration when capping this game. TT is very dangerous when playing in Lubbock at night but I don't think they are near as dangerous outside of Lubbock. In fact Mike Leach has always been a .500 coach away from home and has done well in his element in Lubbock. I think Ole Miss will be able to have their way with the TT defense on the ground and then setting up Play Action and stretching the field. While OM has not seen many teams with TT's calibur offense, TT has not seen a defense close to what OM will present. I remember the Cotton Bowl a few years back betwwen the great defense of Bama and the great offense of TT wher defense proved it reigns supreme in route to a 13-10 Bama win on a knuckle ball FG. I missed this line at 7 but I think the points will just be a bonus or a cushion in this game. I see Ole Miss winning this game and giving us a preview of the game in Miami.

Ole Miss +4.5
2 units

(I also played OM money line at +200 but won't post it as a play)
 
I love the Ole Miss writeup, you've saved me a lot of time. They've gotten better all year, the DL is very good and that will let them get 6-7 in coverage and still get Harrel to move his feet where he is a lot less successful.. Ole Miss has some speedsters on offense and Snead can make a play. Hands down the biggest concern is the secondary because even Smelley threw for 350 on them. GL
 
Thanks ETG, I'm hoping that the D Line can do enough so that it takes some of the pressure off of the secondary. I look at preparing for an offense like TT's a little bit like preparing for the triple option. Both styles, while obviously very different are much more effective when having just one week to prepare for them and not any additional time. While I don't think that it's possible to truly simulate TT's offense OM has the athletes where they can show the defense some good looks. I know Florida torched OM's secondary but that offense is different in the sense that they run the football so well but TT does not at all. Problem is there are so many swiss cheese defenses in the Big 12 that TT really wasn't tested a whole lot on offense. They didn't run it all that well on Texas, Nevada and Oklahoma who are some of the better rush defenses they played. No one really talks about this OM offense but it's damn good now that Snead found his rythm and their OC is so good at getting the ball to their play makers. Gonna be interesting to see what Harrell looks like playing with some grass stains and dirt on his jersey. GL to you as well
 
Hawaii stuff

Got this article for Christmas Eve...

Warriors block out critics

High number of sacks a concern, but linemen aren't entirely to blame

Mark Twain is credited with noting there are "lies, damned lies and statistics."


For the Hawai'i football team, here's a damning statistic: 49 sacks allowed in 13 games.

Entering Wednesday's Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl, the Warriors are conceivably in reach of the NCAA record of 58 sacks relinquished in a season.

What's more, they have allowed 10 sacks combined in the past two games.

"I'm not happy with the number of (relinquished) sacks we've had this year," UH head coach Greg McMackin said. "In the offseason, that's going to be a deep project for us."

In the four-wide passing offense, the higher number of sacks might be proportionate to the greater number of pass attempts. But in the same number of games, the Warriors had 205 more pass plays last season, yet relinquished 14 fewer sacks.

In 2007, the Warriors were sacked once every 19.9 pass plays. This season, they have been sacked once every 10.1 pass plays.

What's more, in four games this year, the Warriors altered their offense to incorporate more rollout schemes designed to minimize the number of backfield tackles.

The offensive line, particularly left tackle Aaron Kia and right tackle Keoni Steinhoff, has absorbed most of the blame from critics.

"We're the easiest guys to pick on," Kia said. "We never get noticed unless we do something (wrong). That's why people pick on us. We're supposed to be the ones who (mess) up. When we do good, nobody says (anything). It's whatever."

Steinhoff said: "When things don't go well, who do they turn to? They turn to us. We put that in the back of our minds and keep playing. We can't worry about what other people are saying when we're on the field. We have to keep playing."

But offensive line coach Brian Smith said "all stats offensively are collective. You win as a team, you lose as a team."

Indeed, McMackin said the blame can be spread evenly.

"Sacks come from a lot of things," McMackin said, listing "quarterbacks not getting the ball off, receivers running the wrong routes, trying to go deep when (the defense) is blitzing. It's not always on the offensive linemen. It can be one of 11 guys' problems. Everyone always puts it on the offensive line. I don't point fingers at anybody. It's the entire offense's problem. It will take them all to work together as a team."

Smith traced part of the problem to a lack of continuity on the offensive line. Three starting offensive linemen returned from last year's team, but only two — center John Estes and Steinhoff — remained at the same position.

Last year's left tackle, Keith AhSoon, moved to left guard.

But AhSoon missed six weeks because of an injury. Steinhoff suffered a fractured finger in training camp. Kia and left guard Laupepa Letuli have endured knee tendinitis the entire season. Running back David Farmer, the team's best backfield blocker, missed some games because of a knee injury.

Kia used what he calls "experimental" massage treatments to alleviate the pain in his knees.

"It's been a chemistry thing the whole year," Steinhoff said. "We've had so many people start on the offensive line."

Smith said: "There have been a lot of other factors: different quarterbacks, different running backs, different groups in the line. We haven't had a pretty cohesive offense the whole year."

In certain situations, the Warriors have tried to stem pass-rushes with so-called maximum protection, sliding a slotback into the backfield to work in tandem with Farmer.

"We're trying to do different things," quarterback coach Nick Rolovich said.

The Warriors find optimism from their bowl opponent. Last year, Notre Dame allowed the NCAA-record 58 sacks, or one every 7.7 pass plays.

This year, by improving their perimeter block and throwing more quick outs, they have allowed 20 sacks in 12 games, or one sack every 21.5 pass plays.

"We were (like the Warriors') offense last year," Notre Dame defensive tackle Pat Kuntz said. "We know what kind of situation they're in."

McMackin said: "We're trying to eliminate (the problem) for this game. We're working hard at it. And I know Notre Dame will be coming at us. It's something that's definitely a concern, and something we're deeply working on."

Smith said the offensive linemen have "had a good week of practice. I'm expecting them to play well."


These guys are a continuous problem on the Warrior frontline...and yes, you will get blamed for many of the offensive woes...this is big-boy football, and the Big-Boys from Indiana are here...game on....
 
TCU -3 2H
2 units

Living or dying by TCU.. Looking at 2H as an independent event and I gotta grab them at that price.. We'll see...
 
Bowl Record: 5-3-1 +.5 units

Loss on TCU -2
Win on TCU -3 2H

Lost 1.3 units and should have picked up 5.. TCU dominated and it was a good win for their program. The strength of the MWC and the weakness of the WAC was as apparent as ever.. I was very happy with how I capped the game, just ended up a couple points short of a huge night. Merry X-Mas fellas
 
Thanks Hunt..

Bowl Record: 6-3-1 +1.5 units

win on the irish.. Got a good number on the FAU total so that's a good thing
 
Thanks for helping push me onto the Irish, and Merry Christmas to you.:smiley_abcs:
 
Added:

Vanderbilt +3.5 to the card for 1 unit.

I don't have time to type up my thoughts now but I will in the next few days.. I may be in the minority here and no one has talked about the game much so I'll try and spark some discussion by Sunday
 
Added:

Vanderbilt +3.5 to the card for 1 unit.

I don't have time to type up my thoughts now but I will in the next few days.. I may be in the minority here and no one has talked about the game much so I'll try and spark some discussion by Sunday


Well one thing is for sure .. points will be at a premium in that one. It is basically a home game for Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt will have ALL of the motivational angles .. first bowl since 1982 while Boston college went from a possible BCS bowl game if they had beaten VT in the ACC championship game to the music city bowl to play the dores .... that has to be deflating. Throw in the qb injury BC suffered and i see where you are going with this.
 
Well one thing is for sure .. points will be at a premium in that one. It is basically a home game for Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt will have ALL of the motivational angles .. first bowl since 1982 while Boston college went from a possible BCS bowl game if they had beaten VT in the ACC championship game to the music city bowl to play the dores .... that has to be deflating. Throw in the qb injury BC suffered and i see where you are going with this.

:smiley_acbe:
 
I'm letting it ride. Jumpin on flight now.. No turning back. Almost played FAU +250 but didn't.. GL
 
Wisky/FSU

Any lean on Wisky/FSU bro?

Played UNDER 26 first half for a unit in the Wisky/FSU game..


Not real confident in a side play here. Initially leaned FSU but it's too public a play for my blood. Some short and sweet thoughts on the 1H UNDER..

Both teams have above average offenses but both teams are run first and that is certainly each team's strength offensively. Both teams were trending the wrong way defensively to close out the season. Something I noticed about Wisky was they struggle against teams that run the football well. I think giving up 35 to Cal Poly, while in-excusable, will help this team re-focus defensively in their time off to think about the bowl game. Some of the better defenses that they faced seemed to shut them down. Iowa, Penn state and Ohio State are three good examples of this as they have athletes that will be similar in comparison to what FSU will have. I think Wisconsin knows they have to run the football early in this game to be able to establish any type of vertical attack to stretch a very fast and talented FSU defense. There were not a lot of teams that just flat out shut down the FSU offense but I think it's possible. FSU relies heavily on their ground game just as Wisky does. FSU is #1 in the nation in 3rd down conversion defense allowing opponents just a 26.1 conversion %. Wisky is above average at 38% but I think both teams will force some 3rd and longs and that will make both offenses jobs difficult. Neither passing attack scares me too much as they rank 82nd and 87th respectively. Wisky has really been their own worst enemy in the red zone on defense. They are one of the nation's worst in RZ defense and that will be a concern against a FSU offense that usually gets points on the board when they get in the RZ. I just believe both teams are very heavy run oriented and are capable of chewing clock on long drives. I can't see Wisky powering the ball down FSU's throat due to the past games we have seen where Wisky has struggled against the upper eschelon of defenses they have faced. I don't think either teams QB are very big threats passing the football and scoring long TD's. However, if either team breaks down in the secondary this bet could be dead fast. I'm betting that both teams defenses start with the upper hand and there will be a bit of rust offensively for both teams.. I think FSU will wear them down late on defense but I think a fresh and hungry Wisky defense can come up with some key stops in the first half of this one.. GL
 
Thanks guys, completely switched my opinion on this game, similar to BYU/Zona.. Hope it is the same result!
 
I live in marietta now. I went to Bama for a few years and wasn't getting anything done so I'm finishing up school at Kennesaw State. You live in ATL?
 
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