NCAAF 08/09 Bowl Thread

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
NCAAF Bowl Record: 27-14 (+12.55 units)

Lost the home opener on the forum with Bama +10. I like to lock in a few plays early but not very many unless I can envision a line running away from me on a key number.

Florida -3
2 units

I'll get into the particulars as we approach game time, I believe this one is only heads one direction and that is North. GL

SELECTIONS:

Florida -3 (2 units) WIN
TCU -2 (3 units) LOSS
TCU -3 2H (2 units) WIN
West Virginia PICK (1 unit)/UNC PICK(1 unit) PUSH
UNC ML (1 unit) LOSS
Wake Forest -2.5 (1 unit) WIN
Wake Forest -2.5 2H (1 unit) WIN
Fresno/CSU OVER 60 (1 unit) WIN
Troy -4 (1 unit) LOSS
Southern Miss TT OVER 13 2H (1 unit) PUSH
FAU/CMU OVER 63 (1 unit) LOSS
Miami +7.5 (1 unit) WIN
Iowa -3(1.2 units w/hook) WIN
NIU/LA Tech UNDER 47.5 (1 unit) WIN
Notre Dame -1 (1 unit) WIN
Memphis +12.5 (1 unit) LOSS
NC State +8 (2 units)WIN
Zona -3 (1 unit) WIN
Ole Miss +4.5 (2 units) WIN
Vanderbilt +3.5 (1 unit) WIN
Wisconsin UNDER 26 1H (1 unit) WIN
Wisconsin +7 (1 unit) LOSS
CAL UNDER 25 1H (1 unit) WIN
Nevada ML -125 (1.25 units) LOSS
Maryland +3 2H (1 unit) LOSS
Oregon +3 (2 units) WIN
Northwestern +13 (1 unit) WIN
Clemson/Nebraska OVER 55.5 (1 unit) LOSS
Pitt/Oregon St UNDER 52 (1 unit) WIN
Houston -3 (1.2 units w/ hook) WIN
Air force +3.5 2H (1 unit) LOSS
Minnesota +10 (2 units) LOSS
LSU +4.5 (1 unit) WIN
VT/Cincy UNDER 42 (1 unit) WIN
VT/Cincy OVER 20.5 2H (1 unit) LOSS
UGA/MSU UNDER 28.5 1H (1 unit) WIN
USC+1/Bama+.5/Tulsa+11 Tease (2 units) LOSS
UGA -6 2H (1 unit) WIN
Kentucky/ECU UNDER 21 1H (1 unit) WIN
Alabama -7 2H (1 unit) LOSS
UCONN -6.5 2H (1 unit) WIN
tOSU +8.5 (1.5 unit) WIN
Tulsa/BSU UNDER 37.5 1H (1 unit) WIN
 
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It took everything I had to not go even bigger on TCU, I had to step away and count backwards from 1,000..

I agree, I really look forward to the discussion on the Sugar Bowl
 
CrimsonK said:
It took everything I had to not go even bigger on TCU, I had to step away and count backwards from 1,000..

I agree, I really look forward to the discussion on the Sugar Bowl
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Ya I need to go and read the money management thread again myself. I've got some great Gary Patterson quotes that I'll toss in the MWC thread a little later tonight. Needless to say he's got a bit of a chip on his shoulder.
 
JPicks said:
Ya I need to go and read the money management thread again myself. I've got some great Gary Patterson quotes that I'll toss in the MWC thread a little later tonight. Needless to say he's got a bit of a chip on his shoulder.
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I think the question marks with Petersen to Miss St could be another distraction in TCU's favor. I believe that announcement will be made soon, perhaps right after the bowl game.. I'd love to read the Patterson quotes
 
West Virginia

West Virginia vs. North Carolina

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Decemeber 27, 2008 Charlotte, NC


West Virginia has under acheived this year, no doubt about it. I think much of it can be attributed to the loss of Rich Rod and also some very talented seniors. WVU did keep one guy in particular that is a game breaker in QB Pat White. While White has not had a ton of success through the air this season, he has still managed to take over games with his veteran decision making and supreme athleticism. WVU ranks as the 65th total offense at a hair over 350 ypg. The passing attack has been one of the nation's worst statistically ranking 109th nationally at 135 ypg. That's not to say this is necessarily a BAD passing team, as White is 35th in Passing efficiency. I can't say i blame WVU for keeping the ball in Devine and White's hands as much as possible. The rushing attack has been potent as always as they are putting up 217 ypg and are a Top 12 rush offense.

UNC came hot onto the national scene this year with a win against Rutgers 44-12. Now as impressive at that sounds here at season's end, let's remember that Rutgers was a team without an identity at that point in the season and UNC appeared to be world beaters. I personally think both Rutgers and UNC have evolved as a team since Week 2, one for the better and the other.. not so much. UNC have had injury problems at the skill position and that may be a reason why they were not all that impressive to me over the course of the season. UNC boast the 95th total offense at 317 ypg. That's not to say they are poor offensively as they find ways to score and are Top 30 in that category. I think much of their scoring ability has been due to the defense making plays and setting up a sporadic offense with some short fields. They have been good in TO margin except for a few games, mainly the NC State blow-up. They will have Yates back at QB and that should help them with some stability, although I'm not too high on Yates he does have a very talented group of WR's to throw to.

The WVU defense and ST have been OUTSTANDING. The defense ranks 35th in total D but the scoring defense has been outstanding as they bend but don't break and allow a stingy 15.9 ppg. This unit has been better against the pass than the run and I think that is key in playing a talented WR core in UNC. This defense has some ball hawks as they do a great job taking the ball away. The ST unit is a good one and especially having a guy like Pat McAfee on the sideline. WVU has a plethora of speed and I feel they do a good job utilizing that on ST's.

The UNC defense is a bit better than the numbers indicate IMO. Again they don't have great numbers in individual categories similar to their offense. But, they do a good job keeping their opponents from doing a lot of scoring as their scoring O/D seem to be much better than the yardage they give up each game. UNC is a bit better against the pass than they are against the run and that is certainly a positive as a WVU backer. The ST has been so/so for UNC as they have impressed me one game and disappointed me the next. In what will prob be a game dictaed on good field position the definitive edge goes to WVU and McAfee.

WVU has the edge in just about every major category that i look for when breaking down a game. There are however two fairly serious concerns that i have.

1. Coaching. I personally think that Bill Stewart is an absolute idiot and one of the worst impulse hires that i have ever seen. However, the cupboard was not left bare for him from RR's departure as he still has some terrific athletes and senior leader in Pat White. I think Pat White's departure will make Stewart look even more foolish, but for now he may just be okay. I like Butch davis, more as a recruiter than a game day coach but I certainly have to give a pretty serious edge to UNC here.

2. Location. It's already basketball season is North carolina so I hope many of the fans will choose to go watch Hansborough and not Yates. The game will be in Charlotte which will help UNC but it's not like Morgantown is a cross country commute from there. I think the location played a role in the number being as short as I felt it was.

I don't know that either team will more motivated than the next in this one. I do think WVU may get up for their leader White as he will be capping off an illustrious CFB career. I made this line WVU -4.5 and I felt a case could be made for WVU all the way up to 6.5/7. Either I am missing something big here or this is just not a good number they made. As a sports bettor I believe the latter and I will bet accordingly.

West Virginia PICK
1 unit
 
Like the TCU pick and I will more than likely be on it as well...up in the air on UF/Okie.

Look forward to discussing the games with you.
 
HUNTDOG said:
Like the TCU pick and I will more than likely be on it as well...up in the air on UF/Okie.

Look forward to discussing the games with you.
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I absolutely love TCU, by far my favorite game in some time now.

I'll be around all weekend and hopefully start tossing some stuff around with everyone. I left some out of WVU break down, was in a hurry and wanted to get some initial thoughts in print
 
CrimsonK said:
I absolutely love TCU, by far my favorite game in some time now.

I'll be around all weekend and hopefully start tossing some stuff around with everyone. I left some out of WVU break down, was in a hurry and wanted to get some initial thoughts in print
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One of my favorite games in a long time as well.
 
great thread, bro. like the picks...specially florida and tcu. on both...and will play bama as soon as the line dips below 10 pts.

kinda torn on the wvu/unc game though. got a lot of work to do on this game still...but gun to the head, i'd prolyl side w/ unc at the moment. very tough, yet great/intriguing, matchup.
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
great thread, bro. like the picks...specially florida and tcu. on both...and will play bama as soon as the line dips below 10 pts.

kinda torn on the wvu/unc game though. got a lot of work to do on this game still...but gun to the head, i'd prolyl side w/ unc at the moment. very tough, yet great/intriguing, matchup.
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Thanks Yanks,

I still have more to talk about with the WV/UNC game. Bout to have a ton of free time on my hands to get some thoughts down on that one and a few more games. I'm still undecided on Bama, i have only played them as chalk twice in the past 2 seasons against Colorado and LSU and I just thinking laying points with them is risky business. I really like the way that they matchup with Utah, need to keep reading up on their practices and motivation. GL
 
Wake Forrest/Navy

Wake Forrest vs. Navy

Eagle Bank Bowl
December 20 Wahington D.C.

I think VK did a great job of breaking down this game and here was a quick response that I gave to his break down on the game. Not a whole to add as he said a lot of things that I agreed with:

One thing that I will say about triple option teams and defending them..

If you are off a short week or may be in a let down/look ahead situation, the triple option just gets that much more potent. The fact that Wake has already seen this offense once this season, although I believe that was w/out Dobbs at Qb, that they will have a huge advantage. I don't think one can stress enough how large the advantage of WF's athlete's compared to navy's are, especially on the defensive side of the ball for WF. Don't get me wrong I have made lots of money of service academy teams and GT who run the 3op.. I just think this is a situation where Navy's "element of surprise" where I feel they have caught so many teams with this year and in year's past will be non existent. Any un-orthodox style of offense is greatly diminished when A) You have already played the team that year.. and B) You have a terrific head football coach that has had weeks to prepare for this offense. I'm not usually a big "revenge" angle kind of guy as far as past years go due to players and personnel shifting.. But, this was earlier this year that WF found a way to self destruct, and to be quite honest, get embarrassed by a football that doesn't have any business beating them. I truly believe that Swank's injury was the difference in WF not playing in the ACC title game and possibly playing Cincy this year. I had a WF ticket to win ACC at +700 and I honestly had a shot at it until the back breaking loss to BC where they were exposed by the pass at the end of the game and lost. I think the revenge angle, added prep time and a defense that is much better than their numbers indicate are more than enough to get Wake a win here and it could be by DD if they win the TO battle. Great write up as usual and GL...

Something I found that was interesting was teams that ran the triple option were 26-16-1 ATS this season, including the Head to Head Matchups between the service academies. I'm going to look into how the teams played when facing a team that had extra time to prepare. My bet is already in but I think it may be beneficial to know something like that for future reference.

Wake Forrest -2.5
1 unit
 
I think I got caught on the West Virginia pick. I've had that lingering suspicion since shortly after making the bet. If anyone has anything to say about that game, I'd appreciate it. I just feel like if I'm gonna get off of it I need to act soon with the line at UNC -1.. Any help would be appreciated guys
 
Fresno/CSU

Fresno State vs. Colorado State

New Mexico Bowl
December 20 Albuquerque, NM

1. Coaching
Both teams have pretty good football coaches. However, I feel that one team has the advantage here. Pat Hill is in his 12th year at FSU and has a 92-61 record in his tenure. FSU is 4-1 ATS since the year 2002 in bowl games. Their one loss ATS and SU was in 2005 where they were a 7 point favorite over Tulsa. It seems to me that Hill always has his teams better prepared when they are in the underdog role. Steve Fairchild is in his first year as CSU and has done a great job as a win here would be 7 and be the same number of wins they had in 2006/2007 combined. I think the loss of FSU's O coordinator Jim McElwain certainly hurt Brandstater's development and they haven't had the offense of year's past. ADVANTAGE: Fresno State

2. Motivation
Plain and simple, Colorado State. FSU had such high hopes (while they may have been false hopes) of playing the role of the BCS spoiler. They were a spoiler all right, for their fan base. FSU is not happy to be playing in this football game where as CSU is thrilled to be here. There are some quotes that I'll try and pull up from CSU players that will help back up that statement. ADVANTAGE: Colorado State

3. Key Upperclassmen
Without question the nod goes to FSU. They returned 51 players including 17 starters. FSU has seniors at QB, TE, C, LG, RT and LT on offense. The defense has a lot of Juniors but not a ton of seniors per say. Colorado state is a young football team who only returned 12 starters from 2007. Farris and Johnson are key guys to their offense and will want to go out with a bang but I think that the case has to be made for Hill's gang. ADVANTAGE: Fresno State


4. Out of Conference Schedule
I will get to the individual conference strengths in the next section but here is the OOC strength. CSU played Colorado, Houston and California in their OOC and two teams will be playing in bowl games. Colorado appeared to be a good game OOC but that didn't end up being the case at season's end. FSU played a bit more difficult OOC schedule especially considering the miles they traveled to play many of those teams. Rutgers, Wisconsin, Toledo and UCLA is a pretty nice resume in this category and I think this is an area where Pat Hill's teams will consistently get the nod. ADVANTAGE: Fresno State


5. Conference Strength
Here is an area that would make for a good debate. In my opinion this area is easy for me to do. The Mountain West is stronger than the WAC and I feel confident in saying that this year. FSU and Hawaii have really been disappointing this year as opposed to year's past. The MWC is by far the strongest of the non BCS conferences and I believe they were a better conference than the PAC 10 for one this year, and the numbers are there to back up this statement. I believe at one point the MWC was 4-1 or 5-1 against the PAC 10 at the mid way point in the season. I'm very high on the MWC and not so much on the WAC. ADVANTAGE: Colorado state


6. Simliar Matchups
I'm struggling with this category. I'm having a tough time finding like matchups and that can be due to my location being in the SouthEast and not seeing a ton of these two games other than what were televised on some of the ESPN or GamePlan packages. I can't accurately evaluate this area so I'm hoping maybe someone else can chime in if they feel there is something big I'm missing here.

7. Individual matchups/Overall
I think this game can certainly be a shootout. I just can't envision either team having a consistent answer for the other team's offense. FSU has the advantage in thr rush offense department as they average about 45 more yards than CSU on the ground each game. FSU has some smaller RB's and they are shifty and can be dangerous when getting into space. CSU has the advantage throwing the football. Farris is a solid QB and they throw the ball for 40 more ypg than FSU. Rashaun Greer is an excellent receiver for CSU and is Top 20 in receiving ypg nationally. Both teams are pretty bad on defense. FSU ranks 88th in total defense allowing just shy of 400 ypg. They are weak against the run and I think Gartrell Johnson can have a big day on them as he is a big/physical back. FSU is a bit better against the pass but certainly nothing to call home about. I have seen that secondary abused on several occasions. FSU allowed 28+ points in 8 of their 12 games this season. CSU is 95th in total defense and allow just over 400 ypg. They are weak against the run but a slight bit better against the pass. CSU's D line is not a very good unit as they struggle to accumulate sack and TFL's and they rank 119 and 118th in those categories. That is big to me as Brandstater winds up like an MLB pitcher from the 1940's when throwing the football. If Brandstater has time to throw the ball he is not a bad QB. CSU is poor on special teams but decent on kick-returns. FSU has one of the better return units both on KR and PR's. Neither punter has had a good season so I don't think either team will be pinned deep much. (I also don't think the punters will be used much) CSU has allowed 28+ points in 7 of their 12 games this season. I just don't think that either team will be too interested in playing defense in this one. I think this game will actually be an entertaining ball game if you like to see the score board operator get a work out. I have a small lean to CSU based mostly on FSU's history as chalk and the motivational factors in this game. However, I'm laying off the side for now and getting involved with the total.

Fresno State/Colroado State OVER 60
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Good stuff. That's really funny how we both posted those at the same time. Certainly don't disagree with an over play. Pretty sure the only thing we disagree on is the senior leadership, but not a big deal there. I will say that I won't be surprised if Fresno State scores a special teams TD as the Rams are horrible at punt coverage and the Bulldogs excel there. GL
 
JPicks said:
Good stuff. That's really funny how we both posted those at the same time. Certainly don't disagree with an over play. Pretty sure the only thing we disagree on is the senior leadership, but not a big deal there. I will say that I won't be surprised if Fresno State scores a special teams TD as the Rams are horrible at punt coverage and the Bulldogs excel there. GL
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Ya, I didn't mean to slight CSU as far as senior leadership goes, It's just they have a younger team with only 1 year in a new system. I think the motivation angle is crucial in this one in favor of CSU. GL
 
BYU/Zona

BYU vs. Arizona

Las Vegas Bowl
December 20 Las Vegas, NV

1. Coaching
I can't say that I'm very high on either of these coaches. Bronco Mendenhall has done a nice job at BYU compiling a 38-12 record there. I guess I don't have a ton of positives to say about him but not a lot of negatives at the same time. Mike Stoops is 24-31 at Zona in his fifth year at Zona. I'm not a very big Stoops fan to be honest. I think they guy kept his job this year with a much needed win over in-state rival Arizona State. I like Stoops more as a recruiter than an actual game day guy. ADVANTAGE: BYU

2. Motivation
To be honest I'm a bit unsure in this game. My intial instinct tells me that it's a David vs. Goliath type of mentality for BYU. Not necessarily that Zona is considered a big dog in the CFB world but it's more of a MWC/PAC 10 type of deal. I'm struggling to pull up many quotes from the BYU side that would help me gauge their mentality. If anything I think they will be excited to get a Nat'l TV game where they really didn't get a ton of exposure this season. The same goes for Arizona in this one, I haven't seen anything that leads me to believe they are chompin at the bit to play BYU in Vegas. Perhaps, Arizona will want to show some conference pride and avenge for the losses that the PAC 10 rolled up against the MWC early this season. These teams have played in 06 and 07 with them splitting 1-1 in some low scoring football games. ADVATAGE: Undecided, maybe slight to BYU just out of a gut feeling


3. Key Upperclassmen
Both teams have plenty of veteran key guys on the offensive side of the ball but not so much on defense. Zona returned 10 guys from last year on offense. Their leader QB Willie Tuitama is a senior but their offense has a lot of young guys with a couple years of experience. BYU has some key guys on the OL that are seniors in both guards and tackles. BYU's MLB and Safties are senior guys. Like Zona, BYU has a lot of experience on offense but lack it on defense. ADVANTAGE: Slight to BYU


4. Out of Conference Schedule
BYU played:

UNI: 41-17
Washington: 28-27 (Controversy!)
UCLA: 59-0

Zona played:

Idaho: 70-0
Toledo: 41-16
New Mexico: 28-36

Interesting we have 3 games where these team played the other's conference. Seems p[retty rare to me. BYU 2-0 vs. PAC 10.. Zona 0-1 vs MWC
ADVANTAGE: Big to BYU


5. Conference Strength
ADVANTAGE: BYU


6. Simliar Matchups
I think some of this can go back to the MWC/PAC 10 games we've already seen this year. BYU handled UCLA 59-0 and were beneficiaries of 4 TO's in that game. They allowed 239 yards of offense to UCLA who average 283. BYU put up 521 yards of offense on UCLA who allow 337. That game was played at BYU. Zona played UCLA at their place and won 31-10. I believe it was a fairly low scoring game and Zona came on strong in the 2H of that game with 14 points. The TO margin was at 0 in that game. Zona held UCLA to 196 yards of offense, 87 below their average output. Zona put up 333 yards of offense which is below the 401 they average.

Both teams played Washington as well. BYU won the game at Washington in a 28-27 game that ended with major controversy on an excessive celebration penalty. BYU was +2 in TO's in that game. They put up another big number with 475 yards of offense. Washington put up 337 yards of offense which is 70 yards more than they averaged this year. (Note: The Locker injury may have slighted these numbers later in the season). Zona got Washington at home and this was after the Locker injury at Qb and Washington went with Fouch. I'm not going to get into how Washington did offensively b/c I don't think it's fair to compare the matchups without Locker at the helm. Zona did roll up 48 on them and were +2 in TO's. Zona put up 449 yards of offense on them as they had the run game going in a big way for 256.

ADVANTAGE: Slight BYU


7. Individual matchups/Overall

I made this line BYU -3. I was very surprised to see Zona -3.5 on the opener. So I had a 6.5 point variance but I did not pull the trigger.. Why? I'm still not completely sold on BYU. I think their is a bit of smoke and mirrors with this team. The two real quality opponents that they played this season they were run off the field 32-7 at TCU and 48-24 at Utah. Needless to say i think both TCU and Utah would have their way with Zona in similar situations. I'm concerned about BYU's lack of a consistent run game. They have a big/physical senior laiden offensive line and a talented RB, but they haven't done a ton to impress me on the ground. I like Max Hall a lot at QB as he is a Top 12 guy in efficiency and Total offense. he has a great ratio of 34:13 TD/INT.. With 5 of those coming against Utah in the seaosn finale. BYU has been a bend but don't break offense as they allow teams to get the yardage but limit them to 21 ppg. They have been above average in red zone defense. The ST unit is solid in punting and KR's but very pedestrian with PR's with a 3.8 yard avg return. Kicking has been good.

Zona is a very well balanced offensive team. They have gotten good production out of the run game with several contributors, most recntly Keola Antolin who is a guy that reminds me a bit of Quizz Rodgers for Oregon State in his size and style. I know Anolin got knocked around a good bit and maybe KO's of the USC game. Grigsby has been solid as well but had a bit of a tendency to cough up the football. Zona averages 37 ppg and I feel they go as their senior QB Willie Tuitama goes. Willie had a 21:8 TD/INT ratio this season. The defense has been suprising very good. Remember, this is a team that only returned 3 guys on that side of the ball. They are a very good unit against the pass and a bit more succeptible to the run. They are 20th in total defense and I only have one major knock on this unit. Their red zone defense.. Zona allowed 30 trips into their red zone and 28 scores! 19 TD's and 9 FG's.. That is not good at all. You can play defense between the 30's all you want but that is just not good. I'm shocked to see they only allow 21.33 ppg. So, If BYU gets in the RZ.. They will more than likely end up with points. BYU put points up on the board in 50 of their 61 trips inside the RZ. Zona is solid in both Punting and PR's but are lacking in the KR deptartment. Bonzio did well with FG's as he was 13/15. (He did miss an XP against Oregon State that I'm still pissed about).

All in all I haven't quite been able to pull the trigger. I give BYU the advantage in almsot every single area but I don't feel like I have a great feel of either of these teams. I think what is holding me back is the fact that I've felt like BYU was a bit fraudulent the entire season. As i stated I had BYU as a 3 pt fav and now I'm catching 3. This is either further evidence of my lack of intimate knowledge of this team or a mistake by the odds makers. I'd like to beleive the latter but I'm not confident enough to pull the trigger. Strong lean BYU but I wanna hear other's input on this one before I decide if I play it.
 
Great thoughts on the BYU/AZ game. I'm going to tackle that one tomorrow, but will likely be playing BYU. MWC was 6-1 I believe vs the Pac 10 this year with the one loss being an ambush by the Cal Bears over CSU. I remember well because I layed the 28 with Cal as it was the perfect storm for a blowout. Still think the yard difference in that one was less than 100 yards though. Either way great thread man.
 
JPicks said:
Great thoughts on the BYU/AZ game. I'm going to tackle that one tomorrow, but will likely be playing BYU. MWC was 6-1 I believe vs the Pac 10 this year with the one loss being an ambush by the Cal Bears over CSU. I remember well because I layed the 28 with Cal as it was the perfect storm for a blowout. Still think the yard difference in that one was less than 100 yards though. Either way great thread man.
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turnovers and special teams in that one. Rams played them pretty tough in Berkeley .
 
JPicks said:
Great thoughts on the BYU/AZ game. I'm going to tackle that one tomorrow, but will likely be playing BYU. MWC was 6-1 I believe vs the Pac 10 this year with the one loss being an ambush by the Cal Bears over CSU. I remember well because I layed the 28 with Cal as it was the perfect storm for a blowout. Still think the yard difference in that one was less than 100 yards though. Either way great thread man.
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Thanks, look forward to your thoughts on the game. Something I've been thinking about as far as line wise on that game.. Utah was -2.5 under "GOY" category at sportsbook over BYU. Line eventually got to Utah -7.. I'll give 3.5 for HFA at Utah. So with the closing number at Utah -7 over BYU means it would have been Utah -3.5 on a neutral field.. So are you telling me that Utah/Arizona would be a PICK EM opener on a neutral field..? I think not... I just really think BYU should be favored here but I'm worried I'm walking right into a trap..
 
I would not play BYU and I seem to be in the minority on this.

Motivation for Arizona is not a problem whatsoever.

This is a program that hasn't been in a bowl in I don't know how long and after they locked up bowl eligibility they had trouble with motivation because a bowl game was their main goal this year----achieving any kind of bowl game.

YOu have to look at the quality of Arizona team prior to bowl eligibility.

We are talking about a good football team here folks that destroyed Cal and lost to USC by 7. Granted, they also lost to Stanford. Even after they locked up bowl eligility they weren't complete garbage close games against Oregon and Oregon State isn't bad considering Oregon and OSU would vie to win the MWC.

In fact without question IMO you have to give strength of schedule to Arizona. Who has BYU played better than the teams I mentioned that Zona played???

TCU, yes they are in that category as is Utah. Air Force maybe a Stanford quality.

But that's 5 vs. 3 opponents worth merit, perhaps MWC is deeper with teams like Colorado State, I mean the Pac 10 drops off the edge of a cliff.

I also don't see BYU getting much of an out of conference advantage here.

The New Mexico loss for Arizona is one I am willing to give less credence to considering it's a completely different matchup and the situation was a horrible spot for Zona. New Mexico was 0-2 backed up against a wall and getting an Arizona at home who was surprised and giddy at themselves for getting out to 70-0 type victories. New Mexico benefited 5-1 from TO's in that football game and like I said a perfect matchup, BYU simply won't run and control the clock to keep Zona off the field by running for 200+

New Mexico is the 16th rushing offense nationally. BYU is 71st rushing offense nationally.


The fact that BYU played winless Washington as close as Washington State did is almost as bad as losing to New Mexico in my book and an example of the sneaky bad this BYU football team is------28-27 over Washington, 45-42 victory over Colorado State, a 42-35 victory over UNLV, those are bad wins if that is possible.

BYU has also been blown out twice to basically the only teams who could match them in terms of talent. Utah and TCU. So the ugly victories are not a case of playing down to level of competition. I will say the Utah game was played alot closer than score (0-6 to's, pick 6's) but Arizona has played USC, Oregon, etc. and not been blown out to date.

---That Utah game BYU did get 214 rushing yards, their most on the season ironically against the top rush defense they faced all season. I don't think that would happen again because going by BYU stat's it is an anomally but nontheless they did.

I do not want to say BYU is a horrible rushing team. They have gotten over 100 yards every game but playing rush defenses ranked in the 100's like UNLV, CSU, SDSTU and not dominating like most teams dominate those teams on the ground is not impressive. Especially when you are leading most of the time and running the clock out. The MWC rush defenses are perhaps a bit better than their numbers indicate in rush D when comparing to other conferences simply due to fact that MWC is a rush dominated league.

But the bottom line is BYU is not the type of power rush team that gives Arizona trouble, statistically, and eye test--we all know it is a Max Hall passing offense.

I would venture to say BYU will get over 100 rushing yards again but not enough to kill Arizona, and when the opponent doesn't win this area decisively the Cats usually win the game

----The BYU rush D is not great either, Zona rush offense is underrated, but let's just say that battle is even for the fun of it

Passing edge goes to Arizona IMO. Arizona is the 16th pass efficiency defense nationally while BYU checks in at 58. You'd traditionally say the Pac-10 is a better pass league.

I will say both teams gave up some yards against real competition. Cal, Oregon, and Oregon State got some yards while CSU, Utah, and UNLV got some yards


I just haven't seen BYU step up and play good vs. good people. Arizona has.

I like their Resume better

It's Arizona Wildcats for me.
 
Good stuff O State. I'll try and discuss the game further and some of the points you made. Still got a ton of work to do on other games as I'm a bit behind schedule from where I'd like to be. You make a convincing argument for the Cats that is for sure. This may be a game that I'm better off laying off and just watching. Hopefully some more thoughts will come up on others threads in regards to this game.
 
Memphis/USF

Memphis vs. South Florida

St. Petersburg Bowl
December 20 St. Petersburg, FL


1. Coaching
Both West and Leavitt have been at their respective programs for quite sometime. West at Memphis for 8 and leavitt as USF for 12. I think that the edge has to go to Leavitt here. I'm not as high on him as some members of the media have been but Tommy West is a relatively unknown guy to me. I don't get too involved in C-USA games or what goes on their in the off seasons. ADVANTAGE: South Florida


2. Motivation
I don't see either team being super motivated in this one. At least not to the degree wher I think that one side will ahve a distinctive edge in this category which I feel is a major component of capping bowl games. USF being a relatively new program and playing close to home could give USF a slight edge. There also could be a bit of a let-down for USF as they were a team with such high hopes that under performed by so many people's standards. There are several guys on USF that will be using this game as a mini-interview to improve potential NFL draft status. Nothing overwhelming in this category but I certainly could be missing something. ADVANTAGE: Slight to USF mainly due to location

3. Key Upperclassmen
Plenty of veteran guys on both sides in this one. I actually give the nod to Memphis in this game. While there may be more guys on USF trying to potentially improve draft status, I think Memphis has a slight advantage. Memphis' offense is all upper classmen I believe with 6 or 7 seniors on the defensive side of the ball. Small nod to the Tigers. ADVANTAGE: Slight to Memphis


4. Out of Conference Schedule
USF played:

UT-Martin: 56-7
Kansas: 37-34
NC State: 41-10

Memphis played:

Ole Miss: 24-41
Nichols State: 31-10
Arkansas State: 29-17
Louisville: 28-35

Pretty easy here. ADVANTAGE: South Florida


5. Conference Strength
I don't know how/if one could make a real argument for C-USA.. ADVANTAGE: South Florida

6. Simliar Matchups
Both teams have a mutual opponent in Louisville. Both teams lost the football game. The difference was Memphis had them at home. However I watched that game on a Friday night I believe and Memphis did everything in their power to lose that game and eventually did.

USF was -1 in TO margin in that game as Grothe threw a pair of picks. USF threw for 344 and 2 TD's. That is over 105 more yards than averaged per game and 100 more yards than Louisville allowed on average. USF did not have one of their better days running the football. They ran the ball 24 times for 8 yards including 5 sacks by the Louisville defense. Louisville is a solid rush d unit as they allow only 130 ypg. USF is above average at 159 ypg. Louisville had a decent day on offense racking up 323 yards but below their season average.

Memphis was -2 in TO's in their game against L'Ville and that was the difference. They did put up an impressive 481 yards compared to their impressive 432 they average. QB Arkelon Hall had a huge day throwing for 351 yards. He did throw 2 TD's and an IN' as well. They ran for 130 which is below their average but rright on point with what L"Ville allows. The success passing is no suprise as that is L'Ville's achilles heel defensively. They held the Ville to 299 yards of offense and 75 yards under their average. ADVANTAGE: EVEN


7. Individual matchups/Overall

There are some intriguing matchups to me in this game. One thing that i like about Memphis is the height of their WR's. Their main guys stand 6'3, 6'4 and 6'8. I think that presents problems for the majority of secondaries in the nation as most DB's aren't much taller than 6'. Memphis is a very high powered offense, they are pretty balanced but their run game has been very impressive as they rumble for over 205 ypg. Curtis Steele was a relatively unknown guy pre season but was solid averaging 97 ypg. I like the mobility of their QB Arkelon Hall and the added dimension he brings. Memphis averages 28 ppg on offense and are dead even in TO margin this year. Their special teams has certainly been below average by the numbers and the few times I have seen them play. Defensively Memphis is a bit above average. I don't really buy that this defense is quite as good as their 52nd national ranking indicates. They give up 26 ppg and they struggle to generate much of a pass rush from the D-Line.

South Florida is led by their Jr QB Matt Grothe. Grothe is 25th nationally in total offense and does have an extra gear where he can extend play/drives with his legs. He is their leading rusher in ypg this year and that immediately raises a red flag for me. Unless you are running an option offense your Qb should not be your main threat running the football. They have some quality RB's in Alabama transfer(couldn't qualify) Mike Ford and Plancher, taylor and Williams. They rotate these guys and good bit and they average 160 ypg on the ground. The passing attack has been a bit better than their running game. Grothe is 15:14 TD/INT and this was a guy that was supposed to do real big things at USF. I think this guy is an accident waiting to happen, a ticking time bomb if you will. The main aprt of his game I like is his elusiveness and pocket presence as he makes covering a good group of WR's just that much more difficult. Defensively they are very solid. they rank 13th in total defense allowing 291 ypg. The stregth of this team is the rushing defense and that is also the stregth of the Memphis offense. They allow 20.5 ppg and have only allowed 24+ points in 6 games this season. There is no doubt they have a solid defense. the area of concern for me is their offense. I just don't like a lot of what I've seen from this team.

I just don't know what USF has done this year to warrant a line quite this high. I made the number 10 and I guess the location of the game may be what has this line up to 12.5/13.. I believe the line opened at -14 and was bet down shortly thereafter. USF has only beat one bowl eligibile team by 10+ points and that was a 41-10 route over an NC State team early in the season when they had yet to find their rhythm. I can guarantee you if they played that game again today it would not be the same result. Memphis lost 2 games by DD this year and that was a game against Ole Miss, which looks a hell of a lot better now than it did as the season opener and a 30-10 loss against ECU where they had some QB issues and only managed 184 yards of offense, compared to the 432 they average. I will say that USF holds many of the advantages in this game but I think that Memphis is a very live dog. There are very few teams that I would be willing to lay DD's with and USF is certainly not one of them. USF has a tendency to give the ball away where memphis is better in this area. I'm a bit interested in the OVER in this game but my main lean as of now is Memphis plus the points. I'm going to monitor this line and see if I can't get some late steam and bring it up to 2 TD's.. It will be closer to a game day decision for me on if I'll get involved in this one. I'll prob take the points or nothing in this game.
 
I don't know how I did a USF write up and forgot to mention DE George Selvie. I'm not so sure about memphis' Tackles and how they will match up.. If anyone has anything to add on that area or any other please feel free to add
 
Troy/S Miss

Troy vs. Southern Miss

New Orleans Bowl
December 21 New Orleans, LA

1. Coaching
Troy's head coach Larry Blakeney is in his 18th year. He has seen this program climb the ranks from D-2 to now a perennial power in the Sun Belt conference. Blakeney went 8-4 this season and now Blankeney is 52-43 at Troy at this level. Larry fedora is a first year guy at Southern Miss and did a respectable job replacing Bower and dealing with the losses of many talented player's from year's past. Fedora will be in his first bowl game as a head football coach as he has bounced around as an OC until this point in his career. I have to give the experience nod to Blakeney as he has coached ina pair of bowl games including a win over Rice in the New Orleans Bowl. ADVANTAGE: Troy


2. Motivation
I think both teams are happy playing in this bowl game. Troy missed out on a bowl game in 2007 and they should be happy going back to New Orleans where they were victorious over Rice in 2006. This is a great location for both teams as I'm sure many fans will be happy to make the short trip south to Bourbon Street before X-Mas to see their respective squads play. Southern Miss are no starngers to the New orleans Bowl as they picked up two wins there in 2004/2005. ADVANTAGE: NONE

3. Key Upperclassmen
Not a whole to say here. Southern Miss is a much younger team than Troy as they returned 53 lettermen compared to S Miss's 41. Troy has adefense comprised of mainly upper classmen where SMiss had an influx of youth as Fedora brought in some new blood. ADVANTAGE: Troy


4. Out of Conference Schedule
Let's see if I can get this one right this time..

Troy played:

Alcorn State: 65-0
Ohio State: 10-28
Oklahoma State: 24-55
Western Kentucky: 17-7
LSU: 31-40

Southern Miss:

La-Lafayette: 51-21
Auburn: 13-27
Arkansas State: 27-24
Boise State: 7-24

ADVANTAGE: Troy


5. Conference Strength
ADVANTAGE: Southern Miss

6. Simliar Matchups
Both teams played La-Lafayette and Arkansas State.

Southern Miss beat La-Laf by 30 at home and beat Arky State 27-24 at their place.

Troy played both teams at home and beat La-Laf 48-3 and Arky State 35-9.

Troy GASHED La-Laf's 111th ranked rush defense for 391 yards. They held La-Laf's high powered offense to 247 yards of offense compared to their 450 they average as well as kept them 30 points shy of their 33 they average.

Southern Miss one up Troy and ran for 427 yards on La-Laf as well as passed for over 200. This was quite a way to start a career for Fedora. LA-Laf did put up 394 yards offense with most of their success coming on the ground as expected. S Miss was +3 in To's.

Troy was the beneficiaries of TO's against Arky State as they were +3 that game. QB Levi Brown(Richmond transfer) was very efficient with a rating of 174.4 in that game. They ran for over 5 ypc as well. They held Arky State to 160 yards on the ground compared to the 203 they average.

Southern Miss traveled to Arky State and won 27-24. They were +1 in To's and have a very balanced attack picking up 219 through the air and 129 on the ground. Arky State put up 447 yards on S Miss compared to the 332 they did against Troy.

ADVANTAGE: Big to Troy


7. Individual matchups/Overall
I was actually very suprised at how good this Troy football team was when reviewing their season. They are Top 30 in both total offense and total defense. Many of those Sun Belt teams just aren't very balanced offensively and I think that separates Troy from the rest of the pack. QB Levi brown had a quiet 14:3 ratio and did an excellent job leading this team .Even more impressive about Brown was that he didn't throw a TD or INT until October 18th in his 6th game. He actually wasn't playing a whole until that point and once he got the job he never looked back. He threw for 2,2,3,2,2,0,3 TD's in each game once he took the helm. RB Dujuan Harris did an excellent job for Troy but was very hit or miss. He was either very average or he went off for a bunch. Remember this is a Troy team that played LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma State to boot. As impressive as this offense is, I think the main area where they separate themselves from Southern Miss is on the defensive side of the ball. They are above average against the run and excellent against the pass. This is a team that scored 33 on offense and allowed 20 on defense. The defensive line is the strength of this unit as they are 4th in sacks and 3rd in TFL's nationally. They appear to be pretty good on ST's as they have been pretty good on the areas that i have seen. K Glusman was 18/26 on the year.

Southern Miss is very potent offensively as well. They have a balanced attack led by the youngster QB Austin Davis. Davis had a 21:8 ration and threw for 2,852 yards this season. The future is bright for this freshmen. The real star of this offense is RB Damion Fletcher. Fletcher ran for 112 ypg this season and will certainly keep the Troy defense honest. S Miss averages 30 ppg. DeAndre brown is a beat at WR and it will be a great matchup between him and a talented Troy secondary. Defense is the achilles heel for Southern miss. They allow almost 24 ppg and I would say that the strength of this unit would probably be it's LB's... The D line struggles getting after the QB as they are 104th in the nation in sacks compared to Troy being 3rd nationally in sacks allowed. I think Brown will have plenty of time to get through his progression on this defense. The rush defense is a bit better than the pass defense but not by a whole lot. I think that can be a bit expected as when i think C-USA teams I think more pass oriented attacks. The Special teams unit is not good for the Golden Eagles.. They have struggled with their punting as they are one of the nation's worst as far as average ypp goes. Neither PR's or KR's have been a consistent area for S Miss. The one area that S Miss has really excelled has been TO margin. They ran 9th nationally but Troy is not far behind.

As I stated earlier I think the key to this game is defense. Both teams have shown that they can score points in bunches but I think Troy separates themselves with their defense. Of the two mutual opponents these teams shared, Troy put up a combined 83-12 score on them. Southern Miss put up a 78-45. Not a whole lot of a difference in the 78/83 obviously but the fact of the matter is that S Miss gave up 33 more points to those teams. Troy has a proven leader in their HC and I think that translates onto their play on the field. This was a team that was up 4 TD's plus on LSU at Death Valley. Regardless of the outcome of that game, this team had the ability to do something to LSU that very few power houses have been able to go there and do. An 8-4 record with losses to Ohio State(10-2), Oklahoma State(9-3) and LSU (7-5) shows me that this team will not be intimidated by a 6-6 Southern Mississippi team. Troy is battle tested and I really think they have what it takes to put it on Southern Miss in New Orleans. I may have made a larger wager on this game if I would have gotten the opener at the key number -3 but I'll play it comfortably for 1 unit at -4.

Troy -4
1 unit
 
TCU/Boise

TCU vs. Boise State

Poinsettia Bowl
December 23 San Diego, CA

1. Coaching
Both of these coachers had their names go through the rumor mill as being possible replacements for HC's in the SEC. Gary Patterson is in his 8th year at TCU and has compiled at 72-27 record in his time there. TCU is 4-1 SU in their past 5 bowl games under Patterson but remain unbeaten ATS. Patterson preaches fundamental football with an emphasis on the defensive side. Chris Petersen is 35-3 in his 3rd season as Boise's HC. I think of Petersen as being a brilliant play caller but he has really put an emphasis on defense this season. I'm not taking anything away from Petersen but I believe several coaches could have acheived what he has at Boise State. I think Patterson is one of the more under rated coaches in the nation. ADVANTAGE: TCU


2. Motivation
I think this area is fairly simple yet a very important aspect of this game. Boise feel snubbed not going and playing in a BCS game after going undefeated for the second time in three seasons. However they will be playing in a Pre-XMas bowl game. I truly believe this is the matchup that TCU wanted. The fact that Utah somehow stole the win from them 13-10 would have possibly shown a let down in TCU's play. That was not the case against Air Force as they used the additional time off and routed a pretty good Air Force team 44-10. Boise is disappointed in this matchup but TCU is thrilled to get a shot at the WAC's top dog. There also has to be an additional sense of pressure on Boise to protect that unblemished record. ADVANTAGE: TCU

3. Key Upperclassmen
Boise has some key guys that are upper classmen. The first that comes to mind is 9th year RB Ian Johnson who is so famous for his proposal to his now wife follwoing the upset win over Oklahoma in 2006. WR Peretta is also a senior and will want to go out with a bang in this game. The front 7 defensively have a number of seniors and that will be big in trying to stop the potent rushing attack for TCU. Boise is still a young football team with a freshmen at QB and a very young secondary. TCU has a very senior-laiden football team. They have 14 seniors on offense and defense that will either start or play a major role in this game. SR Aaron Brown splits a lot of their carries as well as being 2nd in the nation in kick returns. QB Andy Dalton is just a sophomore but has a significant amount of Playing time under his belt as he was very involved as a freshman. I think both teams have some key vetrean guys but TCU has the advantage as I previously stated. ADVANTAGE: TCU


4. Out of Conference Schedule
TCU played:

Stephen F Austin: 67-7
Stanford: 31-14
SMU: 48-7
Oklahoma: 10-35

Boise State played:

Idaho State: 49-7
Bowling Green: 20-7
Oregon: 37-32
Southern Miss: 24-7

ADVANTAGE: Boise State(Win at Oregon)



5. Conference Strength
ADVANTAGE: TCU

6. Simliar Matchups
I think the most like match-up for Boise State compared to TCU is Oregon. Oregon is 4th in rushing offense compared to TCU at 12th. Oregon is 24th in rushing defense compared to TCU being 1st. Boise defeated Oregon 37-32 in Eugene.

Oregon rushed for 227 yards in that game. The game was actually not as close as it seemed as Oregon scored 19 in the 4th quarter. Boise was +2 in TO's that game as Oregon threw 3 INT's and lost a fumble. Boise had their success through the air as Morre threw for 386 yards 3 TD's and 1 INT. Oregon did stifle Boise rushing attack as they rushed 35 times for 38 yards. Boise allows 104 ypg but as I stated Oregon ran for 227 yards, which is 123 yards more than Boise allows on average.

Boise has a potent passing attack but they are still a run oriented team. While SMU is not a good team at 1-11, they can throw the ball as June Jones teams can always do. TCU held SMU to 218 yards passing and forced two INT's. SMU averages 273 yards through the air and were held 55 ayrds south of their average. TCU lost 35-10 to Oklahoma but held them to a tie with their season low in points. They actually played a 7-7 second half with Oklahoma as Oklahoma out up 28 in the first half. Oklahoma had a monster passing day with 411 yards through the air with 55 yards more in that game than their average of 356. The main area in this game is what they did to Oklahoma's rushing game. Oklahoma averages 205 rushing yards per game but TCU held them to 25 yards on 36 carries.

ADVANTAGE: Oregon


7. Individual matchups/Overall

TCU has one of the best defenses in the nation but that is not to say that they lack offensive fire power. They have the 29th total offense and average over 400 ypg. The rushing attack is the strength of TCU as they rank 13th natioanlly at 215 ypg. They have a tricky offense where they use some misdirection and zone reads with Dalton at QB. They have 4 or 5 guys that run the football effectively but no one on that team averages over 50 rypg. The passing attack ranks 70th nationally at 201 ypg. Andy Dalton ranks 45th in passing efficiency with 11TD's and 4 INT's. Dalton's mobility may be his greatest asset as he is very good at extending plays/drives. The defense of TCU is truly an awesome unit. They rank 1st natioanlly in rushing defense allowing 48 ypg. As I stated above holding a team like Oklahoma to less than 1 ypc at Norman is incredible. The pass defense is excellent as well. They allow 166 ypg and have kept opposiing QB's looking pedestrian with an avg QB rating of 96.61. TCU has intercepted 14 passes and recovered 12 fumbles this season. They have an excellent TO margin and rank 9th nationally. All American DE Jerry Hughes anchors this D line that allows 10.92 ppg. They average 3.42 sacks per game and 7.75 TFL's per game. This D line is quietly one of the best in the nation. TCU has only allowed 18 trips into their red zone this season and 72 points. They are also Top 5 nationally in 3rd down conversion% defense at 28.8%. The special teams has been very good on KR's and PR's. The punting has been lack luster at 33.73 ypp. FG kicker Ros Evans was 15/19 this season. TCU averages 35 points and allows 10 points on average.

Boise State has really improved this season defensively. The offense is still very potent as they average 39 ppg and over 456 yards in total offense. The running game has not been incredibly productive for Boise but the talent is there and they certainly use the run to set up some trick plays as well as the play action pass. Boise averages 162 yards rushing per game with Johnson and Avery taking on the bulk of the load. Johnson is still scoring plenty of TD's but I believe his ypg is down this season at 61.5 rypg. Red Shirt freshmen QB kellen Moore has done a fine job this season. He is Top 20 in total offense and passing efficiency. Moore has 25:9 TD/INT ratio this season. They do a good job of distributing the ball between Childs, Pettis, Peretta and Hawkins. Boise ranks 16th in total defense only allowing 294 ypg. They have been strong against the run giving up just 104 ypg. They really didn't face many potent rushing teams at 104, 74 107, 115, 118, 69, 75th teams nationally to name a few. They did face some good rushing teams such as Nevada, La Tech, S Miss and Oregon. there were saome mixed results yardage wise against the upper eschelon of running teams. The pass defense ranks 37 and allows 189 ypg. Boise is just behind TCU in red zone defense and a bit behind in TO margin. The ST's are solid and the main area I see Boise having the advantage is in the punting as they get about 6 ypp more than TCU. FG Kicker Kyle Brotzman went 14/22 this season.

I think TCU holds advantages in many of the key areas of this football game as I stated above. I don't think Boise's defense is even as close to as good as the numbers indicate. Let's face it, the WAC was awful this season. I do give them credit for winning in Eugene, Oregon as that is not easy to do. I think the MWC is miles above the WAC this season. As many may remember TCU should not have lost that football game to Utah this season and were victim of a tough situation with a trip to Las vegas and a mid week trip back into altitude to play Utah. I think that TCU can cause all sorts of problems for Boise in this game. I think it all starts with the line of scrimmage which is an area that i believe TCU can controll all game, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I think that the average bettor will be quick to jump on the Boise State wagon as "There is no way that a 12-0 Boise State team should be an underdog to a team that is not even 2nd best in the state of Texas". I see it differently and I really believe this will be a public blood bath for Boise State backers.

TCU -2
3 units (Max Play)
 
I'm not going to do a write up for the Hawaii Bowl. I think VK said all that there is to be said in that game. As of now, I'm laying off the game until I can compile more stuff to use for motivation angles. That to me is always my biggest concern with team's traveling to the island.
 
FAU/CMU

Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan

Motor City Bowl
December 26 Detroit, MI

1. Coaching
I've been looking some stuff over and I can't really come up with anything conclusive in this area. If Howard was younger and in his prime it would be an easy answer, I just haven't seen enough of his actual game day coaching this year to know if he is still sharp at 74 years old. Butch Jones has done a good job but there were a couple games where I questioned some of his clock management. ADVANTAGE: FAU based on the way Schnellenberger dresses like he just stepped off his yacht

2. Motivation
FAU is one of the newer programs in the FBS. They have only played in one bowl game and that was last year in New Orleans. CMU was on a big bowl drought until 2006 and 2007 where they played in this same bowl game. Location CMU gets a big advantage but I believe that FAU players have to be sky high to be playing in their second bowl game in school history. ADVANTAGE: Slight to FAU

3. Key Upperclassmen
I keep going back to the fact that FAU is a new program, but with that comes some veteran players by default. CMU returns 45 lettermen from a seaosn ago while FAU returns 10 more at 55. CMU has some veteran guys at key spots on offense at QB, RB and LT. While this team returned 16 starters from the 2007 campaign, they still have quite a few juniors that will be key contributors in this game and next season. FAU returns 18 starters from last season, There could be as many as 12 senior starters in this football game. Both teams QB's are talented Juniors and whichever guy has the bbeter day will play a huge role in the outcome of this game. ADVANTAGE: FAU


4. Out of Conference Schedule

FAU played:

@ Texas: 10-52
UAB: 49-34
@ Michigan State: 0-17(hard rain I believe)
@ Minnesota: 3-37
Western Kentucky: 24-20

CMU played:

Eastern Illinois: 31-12
@ Georgia: 17-56
@ Purdue: 25-32
Indiana: 37-34

ADVANTAGE: FAU(games against bowl teams)


5. Conference Strength
ADVANTAGE: CMU

6. Simliar Matchups
Struggling here to find similar matchups. I just think that there is a difference between both conferences and they way they play the game. So much of the MAC stuff gets jumbled when the weather gets nasty late in the season. The OOC schedules are tough to find like matchups. So I will say this, both teams will give up a lot of points when playing good offensive teams, which are both team's strengths. ADVANTAGE: None


7. Individual matchups/Overall
FAU has a very talented QB in Rusty Smith. He is 36th in total offense nationally. This team had some serious offensive struggles at the beginning of the year but I can understand that with the OOC schedule that they played. They did put up some pretty impressive numbers against lesser competiton that did not have very stout defenses. They throw for 250 ypg and Smith had 22:14 TD/INT ratio while throwing for just under 3,000 yards this season. They have some good senior RB's in Pierre and Edgecomb. FAU rushed for 140 ypg. While they averaged just shy of 400 ypg in total offense they didn't put up the points that I would would expect with that type of yardage. They averaged 25 ppg but came on strong at the end of the year averaging 37.2 ppg in their last 5 games. I think this offense is peaking right now after the slow first half of the season. Defensively FAU has been pretty poor all season. They are 93rd in total defense allowing just over 400 ypg. Despite being senior laiden on defense they just have not performed well. They have been equally bad against the run and pass and allow opposing teams 29.33 ppg. The defensive line is rarely in the back field as they are one of the nation's worst in getting sacks and TFL's. This is not good against a QB like Dan LeFevour who has a good arm and is mobile. I really like sophomore DB Tavious Polo as he is dangerous on PR's as well. They are not a very good ST's unit especially when they punt the football. Edgecomb and Polo are dangers return guys but have not had great seasons statistically in those areas.

CMU has a great QB in LeFevour. He averages 306 yards in total offense ranking him 11th nationally. LeFevour had a 19:5 TD/INT ratio this season as well as rushing for 536 yards and 6 TD's. LeFevour has the added dimension of tucking and running and I think that's really what makes this kid special. They have a senior RB in Ontario Sneed who never actually rushed for 100 yards this season in a game but was efficient in keeping defenses on their toes. This is a very good passing football team as they rank 13th natioanlly and avg 30.25 ppg. They scored 30+ points in half of their games this season and averaged 36.5 ppg in their last 4 games. if this team could play a lick of defense they would ahve likely won the MAC this year. CMU ranks 104th in total defense allowing over 425 ypg and 30.75 ppg. They are better against the run than the pass but they rank 118th in passing defense allowing opposing QB's to throw for almost 300 ypg. They will be seeing plenty of passing against FAU as that is their stregth on offense. CMU allowed 28+ points in 6 of their games this season. In fcat Eastern Michigan just had a field day on thsi defense putting up 616 yards of offense including 516 through the air and 5 TD's. I have a feeling FAU will use that game as a blue print to identify how to attack CMU. The punting is weak for CMU but Antonio brown is the #1 Punt returner in the nation for CMU. Couple that with the fact that FAU has a poor ST unit and I see CMU's dangerous offense having some short fields to work with.

I see this game playing out a lot like it did last year at Ford Field where CMU fell to Purdue 48-51. We have an indoor fast track with two very potent offensive units and two poor defensive units. I think this game has shootout written all over it as both teams are clicking right now offensively averaging over 35 ppg in the last 4/5 games. I think both QB's have huge days and the last team with the ball may win the football game. I lean towards the points in this game but I believe the best route to go as of right now is the OVER. I missed the number at 61 but I think 63 is still a bit short in agame where I could see it getting into the 80's. I think 63 is as good as I'm gonna get, i can't see it coming down, only going up.

FAU/CMU OVER 63
1 unit
 
I'm getting off of West Virginia, Line moved back to a PICK from UNC -1 so i can get get off and pay the vig. I've been uncomfortbalbe since I made the bet and my gut is telling me to get off of it.
 
MIA/CAL

Miami vs. California

Emerald Bowl
December 27 Emerald Bowl

1. Coaching
I'm not real high on either guy to be honest. Tedford has done more at Cal and really brought them out of a hole before he got there. I just really don't think it's all that difficult to win in the PAC 10 to be honest. I don't think Shannon is the right guy at Miami for several reasons but that's neither here nor there. ADVANTAGE: Cali


2. Motivation
Just a short bus ride for Cal in this one where Miami will have a long trip across the country. Fans should be heavily favoring the Bears and it's an ideal situation for the Emerald Bowl to snatch up Cal. There wer however some comments made by Cal players talking about playing a game so close to home they do not get the entire bowl experience. The PR people at Cal quickly had a few key players come out and talk about how great it will be to play in front of Cal fans and their family etc etc. I worry about Miami's motivation in mediocre bow scenarios a lot. This is not traditionally the most discpilined group of players and I guess I had some minor concerns about how focused they will be. I do think for the most part this young team will be excited to play in a bowl game after missing out last year following a 5-7 season. ADVANTAGE: Cali (location, but could be double edged sword)..


3. Key Upperclassmen
Both teams are very young. Most of both team's experience comes on the defensive side of the football which are both team's strengths. Can't find anything that would tip the scale one way or another. ADVANTAGE: None


4. Out of Conference Schedule

Cal played:

Michigan State: 38-31
@ Maryland: 27-35
Colorado State: 42-7

Miami played:

Charleston Southern: 52-7
@ Florida: 3-26
@ Texas A&M: 41-23
UCF: 20-14

ADVANTAGE: Slight to Cali(All 3 teams bowl bound, the loss to ACC makes it slight)


5. Conference Strength
ADVANTAGE: MIA


6. Simliar Matchups
Again, I'm struggling here. I'm trying to find a team that is a good rush offense in the ACC that plays good defense. My best available choice to compare Cal to is Georgia tech and that just doesn't work as the triple option is a completely different beast when trying to defend it and breaking down games. I guess Va tech is a very close second to Cal as they are solid defensively, run the ball well and aren't a huge threat throwing the football.

The Miami/VT game was very defensive and VT squeaked out a 16-14 win at Miami. I saw a replay of that game and the problem was Miami settled for FG's and didn't punch it in whe they were in the RZ. MIA had 247 yards of offense compared to VT's 254. Again, the game came down to Miami's inability to get TD's in the RZ.

As far as a similar match-up for Cal I'll use Maryland. Now I know that this was a horrible spot for Cal situationally playing an early game on the west coast, but it's still a loss to a middle of the road ACC team. Cal actually won the TO battle by +1 in that game so it wasn't an abnormal amount of TO's(an area where Cal is excellent). Cal had a huge day through the air for 423 yards which is WELL ABOVE the 195 ypg they average. They were stifled on the ground rushing 23 times for 38 yards. Maryland ran the ball pretty well with Scott and had a long run of 38 by Meggett.

ADVANTAGE: MIA


7. Individual matchups/Overall
Miami has the athletes, they just can't decide if they are gonna come out and play each game. They are below average offensively ranking 88th in total offense. They have good skill guys but have not gotten consistent production as a unit. They use a two Qb system with Marve and Harris. Neither guy's numbers are great statistically and they have not been helped at times by key drops by their WR's. While this team may not rack up tons of yards, they are a solid scoring offense. They average 28 ppg and rank near the top in the ACC. If this team gets in the RZ, they are going to score points more often than not. They rank 5th natioanlly in RZ offense scoring 41 times in their 44 attempts. the key willl be scoring TD's and not settling for FG's. The defense is better than the numbers show for MIA. They have been gashed in their final two games of the regular season, I give them a pass against GT due to the style of GT but they were not good against NC State. They did a fair job in pass coverage but the running atack got them again. They are 70th nationally in rush defense allowing 146 ypg. That is my main concern playing a Cal team that runs the ball well. The allow 24 ppg and QB's rarely have tons of success throwing the ball against them. MIA gets penetration and get in the back field a good bit. The front 4's play for MIA will be big in this agme. ST's are pretty good. Bosher kicks and punts and does a nice job in both areas going 17/19 in FG attempts.

Cal is a good running team. They run for 183 ypg and Best is number 5 in rypg nationally. The problem for them has been throwing the football. They have had some Qb controversy between Riley and Longshore and Riley has done the better job this season with a 14:6 TD/INT ratio. Cal is about like MIA passing the football but their rushing attack is the difference between the two. Cal averages 33 ppg but I don't think highly of many PAC 10 defenses. Cal has been very good on defense as they rank 24th nationally in total defense. They have done a good job making opposing QB's look average at best and will be facing two QB's that don't need a ton of help there to fit the bill. They only allow opponents 20 ppg but have had some bad lapses allwoign 30+ points 4 times this season. This is a team that buckles down defensively in the red zone only allwoing 27 scores in 41 drives. That should be a fantastic matchup as Miami is so good in the RZ on offense. ST's are good for Cal in every aspect of the game. they do have a young Kicker who went 8/11 but finished the season 2/4.

TO margin is heavily in favor in Cal but I don't know how to accurately handicap TO's. So, i will go with the assumption that Cal will be +1 in the TO margin at the end of the game. It's not so much, how they get the TO('s?) but where they will come. Miami is pretty good at not losing fumbles only having 4 this season. The problem is they have thrown 19 INT's and cal has intercepted 26 passes on the season. I do think extra prep time will benefit MIA the most as they have the atheletes as I've mentioned, they just need to show a bit more football savvy. I really am down on the PAC 10 this year and I may be in the minority but I think the ACC had a much better year than most people give them credit for. I think Miami is the type of team that is dangerous to be giving a TD plus while playing in the spot light. I think this game has the potential be relatively low scoring so catching a TD plus is very inviting. I think Maimi has the personnel on defense to make Cal more one dimensional and force them to beat them through the air. After the recent defensive debacles MIA had to close the season, i think a defensive guy like Randy Shannon will put a heavy emphasis on tackling and playing assignment football. Miami has always been a good bowl team. FSU made the most of their trip out to San Fran in 2006 when they defeated UCLA 44-27. Last year Maryland played a good Oregon team in a tight game in this bowl and I expect more of the same by the ACC representative.

MIAMI +7.5
1 unit
 
Miami has the athletes, they just can't decide if they are gonna come out and play each game

Don't you just love teams like that ? Those type of teams tend to make bad favorites but good underdogs.

Interessting stuff crimson ... keep trucking brutha.
 
vegaskyle said:
Miami has the athletes, they just can't decide if they are gonna come out and play each game

Don't you just love teams like that ? Those type of teams tend to make bad favorites but good underdogs.

Interessting stuff crimson ... keep trucking brutha.
Click to expand...


It's really a tricky game. I HATE backing teams that far west bound but with school wrapping up for them and the extra prep time I'm willing to give it a go. If they decide to start turning the ball over and let Best go off on them as some RB's have as of late the bet will be in trouble. The extra half point is nice in case of a back door opportunity being down 10-14 points. I lean UNDER but I think MIA is a very live dog and the better of the two choices. I haven't eaten all day and I'm exhausted. back at it tomorrow with some interesting games still on tap
 
CrimsonK said:
I'm getting off of West Virginia, Line moved back to a PICK from UNC -1 so i can get get off and pay the vig. I've been uncomfortbalbe since I made the bet and my gut is telling me to get off of it.
Click to expand...


I'm hearing rumors Noel Devine might be transferring and sitting out this game.
 
NIU/LA tech

Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech

Independence Bowl
December 27 Shreeveport, LA


1. Coaching
Both coaches fairly new to their respective programs. I think Dooley's pedigree being from the south and knowing how good a coach his dad was. Kill did a great job at NIU this year but this could be attributed to the amount of seniors and experience that this team gets back. I like both coaches from the little I know about them and don't see anything too decisive. ADVANTAGE: None


2. Motivation
Location is gonna play a huge role in this one with it being in Louisiana. I don't doubt NIU's motivation as they are fresh off of a 2-10 season but the location should be big in this game. La Tech hasn't played ina bowl game since 2001 and they have to be thrilled about playing in this game. ADVANTAGE: La Tech



3. Key Upperclassmen
Very cut and dry aspect of the game here. NIU returned 21 starters from last season and have 20 seniors with starting experience. La Tech has some experience as well but NIU would have a sizable advantage against most of the teams in CFB. ADVANTAGE: Big to NIU



4. Out of Conference Schedule

NIU played:

@ Minny: 27-31
Indiana State: 48-3
@ Tennessee: 9-13
Navy: 0-16

La Tech played:

Mississippi State: 22-14
@ Kansas: 0-29
Southeastern Lousiana: 41-26
Army: 7-14

ADVANTAGE: NIU


5. Conference Strength
ADVANTAGE: La Tech



6. Simliar Matchups
I'm going to use their games against SEC teams because I believe both teams are strong rushing offenses as well as pretty strong defensively.

NIU went to Knoxville the first week in October and lost 9-13. While UT may have had a poor season that is av ery tough place to play against a stingy defense. NIU was +1 in TO's in that game. They had mild success passing the football going 14/26 and an INT but thta was without Harnish at QB. They were stifled on the ground as they rushed 34 times for 72 yards. Harnish is a running QB and that could have certainly shown why they had a tough day on the ground. They wree held to 190 yards of total offense with is 145 below their average day offensively. UT was 4th in total defense allowing 264 ypg. NIU held UT to 156 passing and 69 rushing for 225 total yards of offense which is almost 50 below UT's average output. NIU showed they can play good defense but lack a ton of offensive fire power against teams that play good defense.

La tech hosted Miss St and got a 22-14 win as 8 point dogs. There wer 7 TO's in that football game and NIU was +2 on the day. Miss St actually outgained them 348-269. La Tech rushes for 195 ypg but were held to just 94 on that day. They did throw the ball 40 times which is well above their average for 175 yards. Miss State actually had one of their most productive days of the season offensively but TO's and bend but don't break defense proved to be the difference for La Tech. Miss St rushed for 91 yards on 31 carries but there was a long run of 31 yards by Anthony Dixon that helped pad those stats. La Tech again proved they hve a very good rush defense but struggle against the pass as Miss State threw for 257 but La Tech picked off 3 passes.


7. Individual matchups/Overall
NIU is the 84th total offense nationally. They are a very good running football team and a lot of that has to do with the mobility of QB Harnish who rushed for over 50 ypg. They run a lot of zone read plays and I feel like Harnish is quick to tuck and run. He doesn't have the strongest arm and knows his strength is running the football. Harnish was 7:7 TD/INT this season but did not pay in 3 games. He did throw 2 TD's against Minny in the season opener but struggled to find the end zone through the air in the 9 games he played in. He threw multiple TD's against Minny(2), Toledo (3) and Kent State (2) but he failed to pass for a TD in the other 6 game sthat he played in throwing INT's in 4 of his last 5 games. he did rush for 4 TD's on the year. They average 25 ppg. NIU ranks 21st in total defense allowing 303 ypg. They are better against the pass than the run but I think that can be attributed to having a guy on the DL like Larry English who is a mismatch for virtually any guy he lines up against. NIU is 59th in rushe defense allowing 141 ypg. They are 5th in pass defense and have a very solid secondary. The MAC is a very offensive conference and I think that NIU was certainly their best defensive team. They are 18th natioanlly in RZ defense allowing 135 points in 32 trips. They allow just 18 ppg. DE Larry English is fast and physical and can cause offenses fits. The ST's unit is sub par for NIU but nothing too terrible.

La Tech runs the football well. As a matter of a fact they are very similar offensively to NIU. They are 26th in rush offense at 195 ypg. QB Ross Jenkins 7/3 TD:INT ratio this seaosn as he and GT transfer Taylor Bennett duked it out for the top spot. They ahve a very good Jr RB in Daniel Porter who rushed for 90 ypg. The passing offense is just not good for La Tech, they rank 102nd nationally. They rank 67th in total offense and 65th in scoring offense at 25 ppg. They did score 30+ their last 3 games but that came against the 98, 104 and 106th ranked scoring defenses in the nation. La Tech does not rank as a great defense statistically but they have a key element to stopping NIU. They stop the run and do it very well. They rank 11th nationally in rushing defense allowing 99 ypg. The total defense ranks 77th as they are very poor defending the pass. This would be a major concern for me if they were matched up against many other teams from the mAc conference but not against NIU. The stregth of NIu is running the football and that goes right into the teeth of the defense for LA tech. LA Tech allow almost 280 passing ypg but I'm not too concerned about that because as i stated, Harnish like to tuck and run as opposed to throwing the deep ball. LA Tech allows almost 25 ppg and I think that's in direct correlation with a defense that is bad against the pass. La Tech has the better of the two teams in the ST's dept.

I think this game feautures strength against strength. These are two football teams that are going to try and grind out their yardage and rely on field position. Neither teams throw the football very well and I would imagine a shaky start for either team passing they will be right back to what they do best and run the football. Both team have some high scoring games this season but I believe these teams matchup very well to play into a low scoring football game. I think the location in LA will help fuel LA Tech defensively with the crowd getting behind them. LA tech's offensive numbers are inflated lately due to playing the botom of the barrell defenses in the FBS. I think this will be a very hard nosed low scoring football game.

NIU/LA Tech UNDER 47.5
1 unit
 
North Carolina State vs. Rutgers

Papa John's Bowl
December 29 Birmingham, AL


1. Coaching
I think Schiano would win in a popularity contest as he always seems to have his name thrown around at the next "hot job". I think Schiano is a great motivator but I haven't really been impressed with his X's and O's. I think O'Brien is a really good head coach. Especially in the under dog role I think he is extrememly dangerous. He has a very young team this year and they continually improved and that to me is the sign of a good coach. ADVANTAGE: NC State


2. Motivation
NC State's last bowl game was in 2005 against Big east rep South Florida. NC State had a very tough road to get to this bowl game and I think they are thrilled to be playing in this game. Rutgers had high hopes for the season but fell victim to a very slow start to the season starting 1-5 and rattling off 6 straight. Location edge to NC State as it's in Alabama and a much closer proximity to campus than New Jersey. Rutgers has put together a nice bowl streak and I don't imagine the PJ's bowl was a goal for them pre-season. ADVANTAGE: NC State



3. Key Upperclassmen
This one is pretty easy. NC State returned just 28 lettermen from last season and lost over half of last year's starters. Rutgers returned 50 lettermen icluding their Senior QB Mike Teel, they did lose Ray Rice but get some guys back from the 8-5 season a year ago. ADVANTAGE: Rutgers



4. Out of Conference Schedule

NC State played:

@ South Carolina: 0-34
Bill & Mary: 34-24
East Carolina: 30-24(OT)
USF: 10-41

Rutgers played:

Fresno State: 7-24
UNC: 12-44
@ Navy: 21-23
Morgan State: 38-0
Army: 30-3

ADVANTAGE: None



5. Conference Strength
ADVANTAGE: NC State


6. Simliar Matchups

These teams shared a pair of mutual opponents. While this may be a good tool to have when looking at a game, I'm not going to talk about either of those games. I don't think accurate comparisons can be made with either game. Both Rutgers and NC State are two of the hottest teams in the country right now and both teams had miserable starts to the season. I'm willing to throw those games after reviewing them because I don't see anything that stands out to me that would be considered an edge when capping this game.

ADVANTAGE: None



7. Individual matchups/Overall

I'm going to be very short with this. The stats for either side do not come close to reflecting the teams that we will be seeing square off in this game. Rutgers has the better offense by the numbers. Their problem is they can't run the football very well and can certainly become a one dimensional offense. Teel has a 23:12 TD/INT ratio and threw for over 3,000 yards. Looking at his numbers he looks like a good QB. I don't think nearly as high of him as maybe some do. He is slow to release the football and doesn't move all that well in the pocket. NC State is led by QB Russell Wilson who has an increible 16:1 TD/INT ratio with 4 rushing TD's to boot. The kid is a play maker, plain and simple. While he may not be as experienced as Tell, I want my money on this kid when the game is on the line. Brown and Eugene have run the football well for NC State while not over whelming statistically. Rutgers holds the advantage defensively while NC State has the edge on ST's. Bottom line is this is too many points to give a very very live dog in NC State who have some the intangibles that i look for when breaking down a game. This NC State team has the "it" factor and I really enjoyed the way that they finished the season. Rutgers finished the season just as hot but there is something about this NC State team that i can't really put into words what they do so well. The line was at Rutgers -7 and now has climbed to Rugers -8.5.. I'm going to watch this line and see if I can't suck out some more points. This will be one of my largest plays of the bowl season if somehow the line hits +10. I'm playing the waiting game and will play NC State anything over a TD.
 
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