• PICK CLUB WEEK #1 LINES ARE POSTED!

NCAA FB RSW DISCUSSION

steponaduck

steponaduck

Pretty much a regular
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170
UCLA under 5.5 -110
Kansas State under 9.5 -135
San Diego St under 5.5 -120
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110
James Madison under 8.5 -164
Arkansas under 5.5 -200
Ohio U under 6.5 -104
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128
North Carolina under 7.5 -115
Ball State under 4.5 -154
Georgia State under 4.5 +100
Old Dominion under 5 -160

OK guys I have been in the lab this off season and with regular season wins widely available for G5 and P5 schools now, its time for me to release the first wave of RSW plays that I have fired in at. I recommend shopping around to find the best odds and I am okay paying a little more for a better number. Its been said that a half a win here is worth about 70 cents of juice, Ill be breaking these teams down in greater depth ahead of the college football season, and I feel really happy with what I have come up with at this point...
 
I like hawaii in this spot to show up in their 2nd game of the season after getting a tune up game against FCS bottom feeder Delaware state in week 1. typically the game under belt scenario doesnt favor the team who as played, as the opponent now has film on you, but I think we will see a very close to the vest game plan for hawaii in week 1 and they can still cruise to a 45-14 type win against the Hornets, who will surely be taking it all in and sight seeing/ beaching it, etc in this vacation of a lifetime for them.



The bows are back for year 3 under timmy chang and I like the offensive continuity they bring back. THey have 11 OL in the 2 deep that have been in the system, I love the WR group, Schaeger should take a big step forward this season, and they will exploit the UCLA inexperience in the secondary. Hawaii will have a bye week after this contest (3 bye weeks this year for playing on week 0 AND not scheduling a 13th game) UCLA has offensive problems losing Dante Moore and Carson Steele and they lose their center and RG and will have to figure out new schemes on the OL which takes time. Their back 7 on defense is inexperienced and the secondary is in for it a bit especially if the DL cannot get pressure, which is hard to do anyway against the run and shoot when it is clicking.

UCLA special teams remains a sore spot for their team, and they are breaking in a new Kicker and punter. Outside of stanford and USC last year the UCLA offense really struggled, and the time to break in the new group may not be on the island in the middle of the day hawaii local time. Hawaii has some dudes and as long as they can protect and move the ball which i suspect they will do, There is no reason they cannot hang in there and keep this game close. Really like this spot for Hawaii at home. +17.
 
Utep at Nebraska over 48.5



Feel like we are getting a total that is 10 points too low based on last years team. UTEP offense was atrocious last year, mostly due to poor playcalling from Dana and crew, but also they were very unlucky as there were many games where they had big explosive plays and Touchdowns called back due to holding/ OPI/ other penalties, and just a team that was way to conservative and inconsistent. The table was set in week 1 where they were losing @ jax state despite severely outgaining the gamecocks, and driving for the winning score, they were at the 24 yard line, 2nd and 1, they throw a fade pass at the goal line that was incomplete. They come back on 3rd down with a similar pass, and on 4th downthey passed again, incomplete, rather than attempting to get the first down and move forward from there. They had a long TD called back early in the game, and lost. They had a long TD called back against LT, another against NMSU, and they could just not get out of their own way offensively. They also played slow on offense last season often snapping the ball with 1-3 seconds left on the play clock, and sadly Gavin Hardison regressed each of his 3 seasons at utep. Just could not improve, despite excellent WR and TE group.

This year they bring in high energy scotty walden from Austin Peay U, who did a great job turning around that FCS bottom feeder and made them into a respectable FCS team. He brings coordinators (D and ST from app, OC from LT) and 15 APU players with him, and they should play with more energy and tempo this year on offense, compared to what we are used to from UTEP. Their defense which was decent last year losses a ton of production, and their front 7 is decimated. They lose a ton of dudes on the DL/LB crew and the secondary remains okay, but without getting pressure and if the DL gets gashed in the run game, utep could be exposed in the back end frequently this year. Their kicking game is solid with the LS and K returning and could be relied on to the tune of a B- grade in my opinion.

Nebraska fans are getting somewhat restless with the lack of offensive production, and they are sick of the turnovers, low scoring losses, and pissing games away like we have seen from the huskers for years. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the huskers to Run the ball successfully all game, gash utep in the trenches, which will open up the pass game where they should feast. I think nebraska needs to post a big number here to set the tone for their season, where they have expectation to get back to a bowl game and more, for the first time in 8 years. shocking that they have been as bad as they have for so long.

I think the cap for me in this one is the motivation for NU to really exercise some demons on offense, the reps late in the game will be meaningful to work on stuff and put some stuff on film for colorado (following week) to analyze, and they will need to create some excitement and buzz around the offense early in the season. Matt Rhule will get this ship sailing in the right direction, i am certain, and it starts here. UTEP will play faster, and will also continue working on their stuff with year 1 of a new scheme, and I think we will see a situation where NU gets in the 40's themselves, conservatively UTEP should get to 10-14.
 
steponaduck said:
Utep at Nebraska over 48.5



Feel like we are getting a total that is 10 points too low based on last years team. UTEP offense was atrocious last year, mostly due to poor playcalling from Dana and crew, but also they were very unlucky as there were many games where they had big explosive plays and Touchdowns called back due to holding/ OPI/ other penalties, and just a team that was way to conservative and inconsistent. The table was set in week 1 where they were losing @ jax state despite severely outgaining the gamecocks, and driving for the winning score, they were at the 24 yard line, 2nd and 1, they throw a fade pass at the goal line that was incomplete. They come back on 3rd down with a similar pass, and on 4th downthey passed again, incomplete, rather than attempting to get the first down and move forward from there. They had a long TD called back early in the game, and lost. They had a long TD called back against LT, another against NMSU, and they could just not get out of their own way offensively. They also played slow on offense last season often snapping the ball with 1-3 seconds left on the play clock, and sadly Gavin Hardison regressed each of his 3 seasons at utep. Just could not improve, despite excellent WR and TE group.

This year they bring in high energy scotty walden from Austin Peay U, who did a great job turning around that FCS bottom feeder and made them into a respectable FCS team. He brings coordinators (D and ST from app, OC from LT) and 15 APU players with him, and they should play with more energy and tempo this year on offense, compared to what we are used to from UTEP. Their defense which was decent last year losses a ton of production, and their front 7 is decimated. They lose a ton of dudes on the DL/LB crew and the secondary remains okay, but without getting pressure and if the DL gets gashed in the run game, utep could be exposed in the back end frequently this year. Their kicking game is solid with the LS and K returning and could be relied on to the tune of a B- grade in my opinion.

Nebraska fans are getting somewhat restless with the lack of offensive production, and they are sick of the turnovers, low scoring losses, and pissing games away like we have seen from the huskers for years. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the huskers to Run the ball successfully all game, gash utep in the trenches, which will open up the pass game where they should feast. I think nebraska needs to post a big number here to set the tone for their season, where they have expectation to get back to a bowl game and more, for the first time in 8 years. shocking that they have been as bad as they have for so long.

I think the cap for me in this one is the motivation for NU to really exercise some demons on offense, the reps late in the game will be meaningful to work on stuff and put some stuff on film for colorado (following week) to analyze, and they will need to create some excitement and buzz around the offense early in the season. Matt Rhule will get this ship sailing in the right direction, i am certain, and it starts here. UTEP will play faster, and will also continue working on their stuff with year 1 of a new scheme, and I think we will see a situation where NU gets in the 40's themselves, conservatively UTEP should get to 10-14.
Click to expand...
Great write-up.

Noted the possible UTEP better pace in my notes.
 
Indeed. Cannot wait for college FB season which is right around the corner.

Relocated my family across the country and now living in the southeast, and have tons of CFB options close by to be able to keep tabs on and attend if desired...going to be a fun year for sure.
 
Futures Portfolio:
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170
UCLA under 5.5 -110
Kansas State under 9.5 -135
San Diego St under 5.5 -120
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110
James Madison under 8.5 -164
Arkansas under 5.5 -200
Ohio U under 6.5 -104
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128
North Carolina under 7.5 -115
Ball State under 4.5 -154
Georgia State under 4.5 +100
Old Dominion under 5 -160


TEXAS STATE to win SBC +500 .33u
BOWLING GREEN to win MAC +700 .33u
EAST CAROLINA to win AAC +1600 .22u
NC STATE to win ACC +650 .33u
NORTH TEXAS to win AAC +2200 .22u
FIU to win C-USA +10000 .1u
LA TECH to win C-USA +4500 .22u
MARSHALL to win SBC +1800 .22u
AF to win MWC +1400 .33u

Lottos:
140/1 Texas state + boise State + WMU all conference winners
672/1 ECU + Texas State + NC State
71/1 Bowling Green + Texas State + Liberty
 
Fordham @ Bowling Green (projected -17.5, o/u 56.5)

Bowling Green's 2023 season saw about everything you could imagine in a football season. Hanging tough with Michigan for a half, blowout losses, winning outright as three touchdown underdogs at Georgia Tech, and a super competitive bowl game against Minnesota. Retaining Scot Loeffler seems to be paying off for BG, as has the slow rebuilding process that he has navigated the Falcons through. This year the Falcons look to take the next step and seriously contend to get back to Detroit and participate in the MAC Championship game which they have not won since 2015.

Bowling Green is expected to take a big step forward this season on offense, led by Connor Bazelak at QB who really started to level up his performance the second half of last season. Bowling Green boasts a solid offensive line returning 4 starters from last season, and their skill guys include returning RB Terion Stewart and do-it-all TE/Flex Harold Fannin who is a mismatch nightmare for most opponents that BG faces. The holes are at WR but they do have some P5 transfers that can step in and take part in sharing the load in the passing game for BG to be competitive once again in the MAC this season. The early schedule for BG includes road trips to Penn State and Texas A&M, but they should be primed for their season opener where they host Fordham.

Fordham returns 16 starters overall, 8 on offense and 8 on defense, highlighted by QB CJ Montes (New Mexico Transfer) who threw for 2997 yards and 26 TD's last year, and is considered a top 5 returning QB in FCS Football for the 2024 season. He will have 3 of his top 4 pass catchers back from last year including Garrett Cody and Mekai Felton who combined to haul in 102 passes for 1400 yards and 15 TD receptions combined. They also return 3 starters on the offensive line, including their center Cody Johnson. Fordham saw their offense take a moderate step back in 2023 after having to replace the outstanding Tim DeMorat, a tall task, given that he threw for nearly 5,000 yards and 56 passing touchdowns in 2022. While I will not call for those numbers from Montes, I would expect further growth in the passing game and more explosiveness from this group in 2024, they should certainly be fun to watch.

The defense, which was susceptible to being gashed at times last year, returns 8 starters from a mediocre Patriot league defense that allowed 375 YPG and were shredded by Wagner, Georgetown, Holy Cross, Bucknell, and Albany. They have a few pieces to hang their hat on, including Claudy Robinson and Matt Jarowski on the DL and James Conway who is a stud Sr. Linebacker who has played outstanding football for the Rams in his long career.

Right now there is no line on this matchup but MASSEYRATINGS has this projected as Bowling Green -17.5 with a total of 56.5 or so, and I want to focus in on the total for this matchup. Bowling Green and Fordham both have high expectations this season on offense with QB's looking to make great leaps in performance each in their 2nd years in their respective programs. Fordham has played 2 MAC teams recently (losing 59-52 at Ohio in 2022 and beating Buffalo 40-37 last year), and each of those games had what this game could see. Points! Fordham was in early 14-0 holes in both of those previously mentioned games vs MAC opponents and they did not quit, and took the lead in both games despite being severely outgained at the point where they took the lead. The team played composed despite being in an FBS road environment, and this BG environment should not intimidate Fordham.

I would expect BG to post a big number here, somewhere around 38-42 points. Fordham will compete throughout, and while I will not call for them to win this game outright, they are more than capable of putting up 20-24 points themselves in this game, which should be exciting throughout. If the game were to get out of hand and BG gets a big lead I can fully trust backup QB Camden Orth to run the offense as he is a more than capable option (17-28, 172 yards and 2 TDs vs Mississippi State 2022, 8-11, 91 yards in 1.5 quarters vs Michigan D in 2023). After the slow start BG experienced last year spotting Liberty a 0-24 hole and climbing back into that game, I would expect a much more focused and crisp effort, with a balanced Run/Pass game that should see success.

We will have a better read on the situation closer to game week when books start posting FCS numbers, as even the books located in far away offshore places don't have anything posted as of yet, but for now, I would look to play "over" anything 56.5 or less.
 
Week 0:



Week 1: *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)
UConn +22.5 (bet365)
North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)
UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)
Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)
USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)



bet 365 hung a couple stale totals out there a little too long. If you have them, I would advise jumping in if you like under, as those are moving downward quickly.
 
steponaduck said:
Week 0:



Week 1: *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)
UConn +22.5 (bet365)
North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)
UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)
Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)
USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)



bet 365 hung a couple stale totals out there a little too long. If you have them, I would advise jumping in if you like under, as those are moving downward quickly
Click to expand...
Appreciate the updates.

I've been looking more at that NU total since you posted it. I'd like to hear @cubsker opinion on the team as well.
 
Underdog ML parlay candidates. Week 0-1.

*** not official plays. Just ideas. Let’s hear YOURS TOO***

FAU +350
Stanford +260
WVU +300
Miami OH +150
Hawaii +470
Charlotte +245
USC +168
 
steponaduck said:
Underdog ML parlay candidates. Week 0-1.

*** not official plays. Just ideas. Let’s hear YOURS TOO***

FAU +350
Stanford +260
WVU +300
Miami OH +150
Hawaii +470
Charlotte +245
USC +168
Click to expand...
Like it.

I know @ProV1Colt is chomping at the bit to get the underdog contest and weekly threads going!
 
I’ll have another FCS write up tonight. No lines up but you will have a general idea of what to look for immediately when the lines come out.
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Appreciate seeing your wonderful work here brother...Going to tail on a few .

I'm putting 99% of my time into the mac when it comes to cfb rn ...

Can't wait to make money together this season!!!
Click to expand...
excellent to hear from you brother.
I love the wacky Mac…can’t wait for a few Mac MORTGAGE type wagers from my Mac brother DUFL. (Although I do miss the Colors), great to have you on this side at CTG.

Would love to skinny on U at Buffalo…and what you’re “local” intel is giving you…

We have one of the good guys here in DUFL in We. NY!!
 
steponaduck said:
Week 0:



Week 1: *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)
UConn +22.5 (bet365)
North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)
UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)
Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)
USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)
Adding charlotte +10.5 -114 at BM


bet 365 hung a couple stale totals out there a little too long. If you have them, I would advise jumping in if you like under, as those are moving downward quickly.
Click to expand...
 
Week 0:

New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1: *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)
 
I'll be following Charlotte a lot this year. The coaching ties plus coach has brought in some nice transfer pieces since he arrived there. He'll have them semi competitive sooner rather than later.
 
Hello Friends. Been working hard on deep diving the MAC for a few podcasts that I was asked to participate in over the coming weeks. Here are a few notes on the league to bring you all up to speed.





MAC ODDS (CIRCA- JULY 4TH)

TEAM ODDS RSW O/U

TOLEDO +275 8.5

MIAMI OH +350 7.5

NIU +550 6.5

BG + 700 6.5

WMU +800 6.5

OHIO U +1000 6.5

CMU +1000 5.5

BUFFALO +2000 5.5

AKRON +2500 3.5

BALL ST +2500 4.5

EMU +2500 4.5

KENT 100/1 2.5



MAC CHANGES FOR 2024: NO MORE East-West divisions. Instead the MAC will go to 4 pods of 3 teams each to protect historical rivalries, top 2 teams in conference win % will play in detroit for the MAC championship game. Those pods will include:

1. EMU, CMU, WMU

2. Akron, Kent, Buffalo

3. Ball St, Ohio, Miami OH

4. BG, Toledo, NIU



Key losses in the conference:

Toledo- QB Finn, RB Perry Boone

NIU- Lombardi graduates

CMU: QB Jace Bauer (phil still has Bert Emanuel as the #2 somehow going into this season) Trey Jones (#1 tackler) LB Kyle Moretti

WMU: RB Treyson Bourguet

EMU: CB Kempton Shine, Top 2 RB gone

Ball St: TE Brady Hunt, S Jordan Riley, RB Marquez cooper their top player from last year, only 1 ret. starter on D

Miami Oh: RB Amos, WR Larvadian, Solid All mac Kicker gone

BG: RB Kieth

Ohio: everyone...QB gone. RB gone, top 6 WR gone.

Kent: CJ West, Capone Blue CB,

Buffalo: QB Cole snyder (trans. to EMU) TE Cameron Ball, Coaching Turnover only team in MAC with a new coach this year

Akron: Corner Tyson Durant, Safety KJ Martin, QB Gone





KENT STATE: RSW o/u 2.5 Conf odds 100/1

Notes: Worst team in FBS last season. 270 ypg and 14.7 ppg, bad by all standards. Year 2 for HC, still no continuity

Staff: TE coach and DL coach left after spring practice, DC Stepped down in April. Short staffed in Year 2, not good.

4 OL Starters return, Ulatowski likely the starter at QB, KY Thomas is the leading returning rusher. "BIG PLAY" McCray is a guy to watch out for at WR.

Defense cycles through losing some crappy players, and bringing in some uninspiring transfers. same ole same ole.

Kent state only Power Rated within a TD of 3 other Mac Teams, they are really at the bottom of an already bad league:



Schedule: @ Pitt @ Tennessee @Penn State all losses tough roadies @ BG @ Miami OH @ WMU @ Buffalo

Hosting: SF PA (FCS) EMU Ball State Ohio Akron (big rivalry, for the wagon wheel, Kent blew this game badly last season)



Could be a dog in 10 or 11 games this season. My projected outlook is anywhere from 1-11 to 3-9 as a best case scenario.

RSW Recommendation: Pass (would lean under but really no play)

Spots:

Fade against Tennesse (if vols laying 42 or less)

Fade against SF PA if Kent is laying 17 or more, play the flashes...eh. the Red flashes

May be a "play On" spot hosting akron late in the year.
 
Akron: RSW o/5 3.5 Conference +2500

2023: Much more competitive than their record suggests.
--lost to indiana by 2 points in 4 OT
--lost to Buffalo in OT
--lost to EMU in 2OT
Really competitive vs. Temple, CMU and ohio (lead ohio 14-3 at HF)
outgained miami oh and won the first downs 14-11 (lost 19-0 as +16...but super competitive)

COaches: OC is vacant as of spring ball, Joe Morehead to call the plays.
QB Ben Finley in from cal after losing last years starters (used 3 QBs last year, non effective)
Big focus on the OL in the spring, to increase the rushing success and reduce sacks. (Who TF doesnt do that...but hope they were serious about it)

Defense- top 5 tacklers return. #31 in YPP, #32 in total d. wild stats for a team this bad, the Stop unit was clearly not the issue. CJ Nunnally might be the best defensive player in the Mid american conference.
secondary is weaker with 2 solid safetys transfering to P5.

Schedule. @ Ohio STate @ SUNJ @ Sou Carolina @ ohio @ WMY @ NIU @ Kent
Hosting Colgate (must win, dont dick around like you did ly against Morgan state) BG EMU BUFFALO TOLEDO

Outlook: might be a really tough out, especially if the passing game develops to help out the already above avg. defense. special teams is still horrific, cannot rely on the kicking game, and kick coverage is still below a C- grade. 3-9 is what I would peg this team at, but they are on the come. I think they could give rutgers a game for a while (maybe we can catch +34 with them) and like...they have to BLAST colgate or something is wrong...

Would maybe Play on Them Oct. 26th vs EMU and Maybe +34 @ SUNJ...

RSW Recommendation: Pass. (lean under 3.5, would play under 4.0 -170 or less but no where to be found)
 
steponaduck said:
Underdog ML parlay candidates. Week 0-1.

*** not official plays. Just ideas. Let’s hear YOURS TOO***

FAU +350
Stanford +260
WVU +300
Miami OH +150
Hawaii +470
Charlotte +245
USC +168
Click to expand...
wyoming is +7 vs arizona state ? feels like a pickem - wyoming prbly wins that game last year by doubles
 
Buffalo: RSW o/u 5.5 Conference +2000 to win the mac

Only new coach in the MAC this season, Pete lembo- former Ball State coach. Solid hire IMO
OC Patenaude- eh. we will see what creativity he brings
DC- Joe Bowen, developed some solid linebackers while at Miami OH

offense: no skill guys back this year, lose QB, RB, top 5 wr. some solid transfers in the portal yet to know what they will be though.
apparently deciding between 4-5 QBS (Ogbanna/Shield)
Taji Johnson xfers in from BC
OL should be better 4 OL return

defense: Lose leading pass rusher and Andreseen solid player
Devin Grant Gone
Lembo focuses and emphasizes special teams and has historically had solid special teams units at other stops.

Schedule:
@Missou @ NIU @ Uconn @ ohio @ Akron @ EMU
host lafayette, umass toledo wmu ball state kent st

lots of winnable games on the slate could be anywhere from 8-5 to 3-9 IMO, lotta variance but if the offense clicks they could be okay. or they could lose to FCS Lafayette.

RSW Recommendation: Pass

Schedule spots
Fade @ Missouri, Missou team total over
Play on Oct 12th hosting toledo (rockets at miss st, at wky, host miami, then back on the road)
Play on Nov 12 hosting ball state. You think lembo wont have that one circled in RED ink? Buffalo could be in serious bowl contention and at 4-5 or 5-4 this game will be huge for them without question. at home.
Play on Nov 26 hosting kent state (if not bowl eligible) playing for bowl eligibility and getting this win in snowy buffalo will be huge, while kent will be ready to pack it in. )
 
Eastern Michigan RSW o/u 4.5 +2500 for Conference
Chris Creighton- year 11 already. took possibly the worst FBS program and made them damn respectable going to 6 bowl games in 10 years...when they had 1 bowl appearance in their history before that?? Charlie batch has to be loving this one...

2023- bowl eligible team but they were a bad football team last season. #129 yards per play, outgained severely last year all season. Struggled with HOward. SUPER lucky to cover vs. Minnesota (down 19 and punting from their own endzone. punt gets blocked, almost returned for a TD. Minn gets it at the 12, gets a first down, has 1st and goal from the 2 with less than a minute left, and is running plays to try to score. EMU bowed up on D and held them out...Struggled against UMASS, struggled with kent and akron, and then ultimately gets blasted in the bowl game. super uncompetitive there.

Might have the best transfer class in the MAC this season. New QB, from Buffalo, Cole snyder
both top RBs gone, top WR Knue gone. 3 transfers in on the OL
lose their top 3 LB, Lose top 4 secondary guys. defense could be terrible this year.
Special teams remains a solid focus for this team and they are good at it, respectively.

Schedule @ Umass, @ Washington @ kent @ akron @ ohio @ WMU
Hosting Jax, SFPA (FCS), miami oh, cmu, toledo, buffalo

Really good week 1 matchup @ Umass, definitely thinking this game could be high scoring and will look to potentially play "over" 48.5
Will look to PLAY ON eastern Michigan on Oct. 12th hosting Miami of Ohio. why would I do that? Miami hosts their big rival Cincinatti, then they go to the cathedral, then they have homecoming, then they play at toledo. THEN....tough roady @ EMU...eagles could be catching 11.5 or more, and will absolutely be backing the eagles in this situational spot. Lots of paump and circumstance for miami all season with rival, @ ND, homecoming, HUGE mac game at toledo, and then following EMU they host another rival in Ohio U....sneaky good spot to back EMU here...shhhhh. dont tell anyone.

RSW Recommendation: this is one I havent played but considering over 4.5

Winnable games:
@ Umass
SFPA
@ Kent St
CMU
@ Akron
@ Ohio
Buffalo
@WMU

and the aforementioned dream spot to catch miami ohio. I wouldnt be shocked if EMU is in bowl contention again this season, and i see 4-8 as a worse case scenario, and could be 6-6 or 7-5 if everything goes their way...I would and I am still considering playing over 4.5 at -135
 
EMU is probably my favorite team to bet on/against - why? > I usually know what they're gonna do

HOME - terrible when supposed to win
AWAY- maybe the best team on the road under great HC Creighton since about 2016 - esp when supposed to lose -away dog on a 76% ATS run (35+ games)
>> used to be great in the non-conf, when just making a bowl was super important - not so much lately

In MAC games
* Home - win about half the time - cover 40-45% of the time - about 70% go UNDER
* Away - win about half - cover 70% - 60% go OVER
 
Week 0:
Hawaii -27.5 (FD)
New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1: *Updated*
Hawaii +17 (bet365)
UConn +22.5 (bet365)
North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)
UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)
Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)
USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)
charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)
Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)
UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage) .5u
Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage) .5u
Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage) .5u



could only get down .5u at heritage at this time but getting these wagers locked in now, and will write up shortly. Really like these spots here
 
KENNESAW STATE @ UTSA -20.5 (HERITAGE SPORTS)



You will not find a better number on this game as the line has steamed to -22.5 and should close around -26 as we approach week 1. Kennesaw state has a robust history at the FCS level but the last several years have been mediocre to poor in performance. Their QB's have 11 career FBS pass attempts, the rotate 7 backs in on offense, and i feel this team will be weaker in the trenches than what is required in this matchup with UTSA, just hard to see kennesaw stopping the run, or getting penetration on the OL to create running lanes. How are they going to move the football in this particular road matchup. Just hard with a team who struggled with NAIA lincoln college, and lostr the majority of their FCU games competing here, going to take some time....if utsa scores 35 this cover should not even be in question. UTSA has a ton back on offense and defense and their QB situation is a question, but they should be in 2nd or 3rd and short all game, so easy conversions, stay on the field offensively, and give the QB easy throws. major mismatch here.



J-State -3.5, just a gut play, I feel that what Coastal Carolina loses, combined with the road situation here, and we have a revenge situation from last year for jacksonville state gives us a situation where the much better team is only laying a small number. I am not confident in what coastal brings back, I think they take a step back this season in the win column, and J-state is typically rock solid at home. not a lot of meat and potatoes to this write up but I feel J-state is the correct play in this particular matchup. THink JSU will be able to gash in the run game, and the explosiveness that we saw last season will be there for them in this matchup.



Syracuse -13.5- Just a game one fade of what ohio lost. QB gone. RB gone. top 6 pass catchers gone. strong TE gone. Defensive studs gone. just going to take some time to get things rolling and going to the carrier dome and trying to do that against ACC foe syracuse is not the environment to work out the kinks. Syracuse offense should be really explosive with McCord coming in from Ohio State at QB, two boss style receivers (CSU transfer and Oronde Gadsen JR) and an offensive line in MUCH better shape. and they are at home, (8-3-1 ATS as a home fave the L3 yrs), They own FCS and MAC competition and take these games very seriously and this one sets the tone. There is some transition at the coordinators which is a risk in this situation, but asking ohio to score 20+ against a P5 opponent with all of the fire power they lost, and there is a real chance here that this game is wildly out of hand, quickly. could see 28-7 at half and ohio stuck in the mud the 2nd half, with Cuse absolutely controllling every aspect of the contest. Syracuse started strong each of the last two seasons so early in the season is the correct time to back them...37-13
 
steponaduck said:
KENNESAW STATE @ UTSA -20.5 (HERITAGE SPORTS)



You will not find a better number on this game as the line has steamed to -22.5 and should close around -26 as we approach week 1. Kennesaw state has a robust history at the FCS level but the last several years have been mediocre to poor in performance. Their QB's have 11 career FBS pass attempts, the rotate 7 backs in on offense, and i feel this team will be weaker in the trenches than what is required in this matchup with UTSA, just hard to see kennesaw stopping the run, or getting penetration on the OL to create running lanes. How are they going to move the football in this particular road matchup. Just hard with a team who struggled with NAIA lincoln college, and lostr the majority of their FCU games competing here, going to take some time....if utsa scores 35 this cover should not even be in question. UTSA has a ton back on offense and defense and their QB situation is a question, but they should be in 2nd or 3rd and short all game, so easy conversions, stay on the field offensively, and give the QB easy throws. major mismatch here.



J-State -3.5, just a gut play, I feel that what Coastal Carolina loses, combined with the road situation here, and we have a revenge situation from last year for jacksonville state gives us a situation where the much better team is only laying a small number. I am not confident in what coastal brings back, I think they take a step back this season in the win column, and J-state is typically rock solid at home. not a lot of meat and potatoes to this write up but I feel J-state is the correct play in this particular matchup. THink JSU will be able to gash in the run game, and the explosiveness that we saw last season will be there for them in this matchup.



Syracuse -13.5- Just a game one fade of what ohio lost. QB gone. RB gone. top 6 pass catchers gone. strong TE gone. Defensive studs gone. just going to take some time to get things rolling and going to the carrier dome and trying to do that against ACC foe syracuse is not the environment to work out the kinks. Syracuse offense should be really explosive with McCord coming in from Ohio State at QB, two boss style receivers (CSU transfer and Oronde Gadsen JR) and an offensive line in MUCH better shape. and they are at home, (8-3-1 ATS as a home fave the L3 yrs), They own FCS and MAC competition and take these games very seriously and this one sets the tone. There is some transition at the coordinators which is a risk in this situation, but asking ohio to score 20+ against a P5 opponent with all of the fire power they lost, and there is a real chance here that this game is wildly out of hand, quickly. could see 28-7 at half and ohio stuck in the mud the 2nd half, with Cuse absolutely controllling every aspect of the contest. Syracuse started strong each of the last two seasons so early in the season is the correct time to back them...37-13
Click to expand...
Really appreciate these write-ups.
 
Colorado over 5.5 -145 BOL its too easy this season

next season the team will be very young thats the regression year
 
spottie2935 said:
Colorado over 5.5 -145 BOL its too easy this season

next season the team will be very young thats the regression year
Click to expand...
Yeah. Everyone said that last year too and they were 3-0 and everyone lost their minds. They finished 4-8.

No interest in that Colorado clown show other than playing “under”

Not saying it’s a bad bet, just not for me.
 
spottie2935 said:
Clown show is improving. Please don’t associate your wording with my wagers. This is a win. No matter what the perspective they are giving off.

Funny that as soon as anyone posts “Colorado” emotions take over. I’m not emotionally involved in the team.
Click to expand...
Dude, I didnt mean to offend, and I wasn't being emotional. What other college program has their players doing fashion shows in Italy, getting into twitter spats with former players, and current opposing coaches, etc. Colorado caught so many people off guard early in the season last year but you started to see the breakdown after they were extremely fortunate to escape against colorado state (never should have), and at 3-0 they only defeated one other team, a squeaker at ASU

Weren't you here last year telling everyone to bet over 4.5 and over 5.5, maybe not, but neither of those wagers were winners, and now they lose both coordinators, gave up 55 sacks last year and now have new schemes on the OL and have 4 OL starters departing, leaking oil on D, special teams was bottom 3rd. Yeah they are entertaining and full of chatter from their guys, but call it what it is. Its a circus over there. We all watch but there was no magical ATS run or winning streak, and now with Nebraska and CSU having revenge along with road trips to UCF, Arizona, Texas Tech, Kansas, and tough conf. games with K state, OK state, Utah, there is no sure path to 6-6. There is nothing assured about their opener against the Bison, who are more than capable of grinding that game and slowing the pace down substantially.
 
spottie2935 said:
Colorado over 5.5 -145 BOL its too easy this season

next season the team will be very young thats the regression year
Click to expand...
Brother, this is a discussion thread. you posted emotionally because you said this ^

Its not too easy, just like it wasnt too easy last year. how many people lined up betting Colorado to win the natty or win the P12, what a whiff that was.

This is a discussion thread, can we not have a discussion?
 
spottie2935 said:
i deleted my posts and will only keep my on topic post about CU RSW.

🏆
Click to expand...
I hope you have a prosperous and fruitful CFB wagering season brother. BOL on your wagers this upcoming season.

Would love to continue discussing Weekly wagers and RSW plays that you might have in your portfolio ifyour schedule allows.
 
steponaduck said:
I hope you have a prosperous and fruitful CFB wagering season brother. BOL on your wagers this upcoming season.

Would love to continue discussing Weekly wagers and RSW plays that you might have in your portfolio ifyour schedule allows.
Click to expand...
Now this moves me to say…Duck you’re a winner. 😎 I have seen this.

My play stands and your respect and communication is appreciated. I will do my best to reciprocate the respect back at you. My purpose was not to offend. I only have one play and I feel it’s extraordinary.

Peace 🙏
 
More notes for the filing cabinet


Jay Butterfield out at San Jose State, was the BU last year and was projected starting QB this season for Navy Ken and the spartans.

Ty Keyes out at Louisiana Tech, was a Juco transfer from SOuthern miss, but must not be in the mix to get snaps at LT.

Jaden Nixon transfers to WMU by way of Oklahoma State.
 
Futures Portfolio:
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170
UCLA under 5.5 -110
Kansas State under 9.5 -135
San Diego St under 5.5 -120
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110
James Madison under 8.5 -164
Arkansas under 5.5 -200
Ohio U under 6.5 -104
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128
North Carolina under 7.5 -115
Ball State under 4.5 -154
Georgia State under 4.5 +100
Old Dominion under 5 -160
Kennesaw State under 2.5 -110


TEXAS STATE to win SBC +500 .33u
BOWLING GREEN to win MAC +700 .33u
EAST CAROLINA to win AAC +1600 .22u
NC STATE to win ACC +650 .33u
NORTH TEXAS to win AAC +2200 .22u
FIU to win C-USA +10000 .1u
LA TECH to win C-USA +4500 .22u
MARSHALL to win SBC +1800 .22u
AF to win MWC +1400 .33u

Lottos:
140/1 Texas state + boise State + WMU all conference winners
672/1 ECU + Texas State + NC State
71/1 Bowling Green + Texas State + Liberty

late add to the RSW portfolio but took a position on Kennesaw State under 2.5, just feel this team is not ready for FBS competition and really hard to see any path to them winning 3 in this first season of FBS competition. Could be a dog in all 12 games this season, including their game against FCS foe UTM
 
no play as of yet but some notes on GT game 2 of their season at home against in state and inner city rival Georgia State.

I would not have a lot of interest in betting Georgia Tech to lay three touchdowns in their 2nd game, coming off the Dublin game, where you have to think they’re going to max out and empty the tank against Florida State in conference, halfway across the world. no extra rest and they have to come home to battle little brother in state rival, inner city rival, I have no interest in that particular game

In fact, I have made it a habit to bet Georgia Tech as a big dog, and fade them as a big fave

Could see GT getting up a couple scores at some point but not sure how important it will be for them to extend the margin in this game especially given the conference sandwich. @ Syracuse next They also have a tendency to let lesser foes hang around. Badly.

2023
lost outright hosting BG +24
Lost ATS vs south Carolina state -44



2022
lost ATS hosting W. Carolina -20


2021
lost outright hosting No. Illinois -19

2019
lost outright hosting Citadel -26

just not a good fave. Under any circumstances. In fact GT is 2-11-1 ATS as a Home fave since 2018. And 6-17 ATS in the non-con during that same time. Could actually make a strong case for Georgia State ATS in this one.

also one of Phil Steele's old capping metrics he liked so much that used to fail him often was the "game under belt" scenario, he interpreted this as an advantage for the team that has already played, as they get a chance to get live game reps and crash the pads a bit, but the stats show otherwise that a team who has a game played vs a foe who is playing in their first game, the team who HASN'T played has the advantage ATS over 10-15 years of data. Having film on your opponent is a huge adv.
 
I am thrilled to share that I was able to participate in a great college football podcast this week with the fine folks over at @leantsports, discussing the MAC and covering futures, teams likely to compete for the conference championship, changes within the league, and regular season wins.

These two guys have a really solid analytical model and strict adherence to their numbers, and they do pretty well with it. Will share more with you all if interested, or you can reach out to me on bluebird X
 
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