NBA Play-in and Playoff thread

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PirateAlew

Dean Smith Disciple
731-641 YTD

Hit my #1 play Sunday and last few days of NBA, nice run to end the season. With Monk and Heuter out, Kings are a much different team. Believe the experienced guys for Warriors come to play tonight. Lakers are owned by nuggets and I doubt they want to win and face them in first round. Lakers have been smashing Pels yet just the next day after getting trampled in the last game, books make them a favorite. Something may be up and AD is questionable as expected and could sit out, depending on what lakers want to do. I'll take my chances Pels get some revenge today. Given recent H2H matchups, Fakers look way too obvious but we know from years of dealing with NBA, the opposite occurs a lot.

⭐️Warriors-2-120

Pelicans ML-102

⭐️Fakers/Pelicans Over 223

Also like the GSW/Sactown Over but have less an edge. May play later.

GL to all
 
GL today Pirate. I'm on your top plays as well. I took the over yesterday 223.5. Should have wait to today.
 
i was a bit surprised it has come down from 227 and 224 even yesterday down to 223 everywhere, but i guess some adjustment with AD questionable and Lebron on the injury list albeit Probable. Dont think it will matter for you or I too much I have them well into the 230's yet again. around 235. Good luck and hope we win tonight!
 
yep our 2 teams didn't quite show up esp late in 2nd half. Zion wimping out late def hurt his Pels team, they were about to pull it off with him rolling. Oh well, today we get it back in the 2nd grouping.

⭐️Philly-5-112
Hawks+3.5-115
⭐️Atlanta/Chicago Over 221
 
Docslep said:
Congratulations. As i often say. Shoulda taken the moneyline 😡
Click to expand...

Thank you, yeah the 2 team ML parlay saved me (Sixers and red sox) and the Half-time bet to recoup the game bet. that ending was suspicious, especially that off-the-ball foul up 5 to effectively blow the push/cover at 5 (those that had 4 were pissed too). Gotta love the NBA with those last few second calls. Wacky ending.

We'll get em again Friday and this weekend
 
PirateAlew said:
Thank you, yeah the 2 team ML parlay saved me (Sixers and red sox) and the Half-time bet to recoup the game bet. that ending was suspicious, especially that off-the-ball foul up 5 to effectively blow the push/cover at 5 (those that had 4 were pissed too). Gotta love the NBA with those last few second calls. Wacky ending.

We'll get em again Friday and this weekend
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Did you say ml parlay? I missed that post or would have definitely played it.
 
TheDodgers said:
Did you say ml parlay? I missed that post or would have definitely played it.
Click to expand...
Yes i often do parlays of short faves around 1-5 points for NBA/CBB and max of 2-3 teams as I've said quite often here and across the street; last night it was just 2 teams with nba and mlb. I dont post post parlays, just singles as I figure most can pick their teams to parlay and as we know with 1 leg seeming to lose a lot more than win, so I just do them on the side to back up a low fave in bball ML with a juicier ML bet or MLB.
I dont like doing beyond 3 legs but will post some fun parlays which i share from time to time with others from here in the tg if you're interested. The hit rate is a lot less on parlays as most would expect and i dont want to people playing them everyday and losing.
 
PirateAlew said:
Yes i often do parlays of short faves around 1-5 points for NBA/CBB and max of 2-3 teams as I've said quite often here and across the street; last night it was just 2 teams with nba and mlb. I dont post post parlays, just singles as I figure most can pick their teams to parlay and as we know with 1 leg seeming to lose a lot more than win, so I just do them on the side to back up a low fave in bball ML with a juicier ML bet or MLB.
I dont like doing beyond 3 legs but will post some fun parlays which i share from time to time with others from here in the tg if you're interested. The hit rate is a lot less on parlays as most would expect and i dont want to people playing them everyday and losing.
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I totally understand that but for transparency reasons I think it is tough to post that without anyone really believing it. Just my opinion.
 
TheDodgers said:
I totally understand that but for transparency reasons I think it is tough to post that without anyone really believing it. Just my opinion.
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yes and i dont even mention it most of the time, just in passing to the other poster, again nothing is counted anywhere in a record or plastered anywhere. It was part of a conversation, not advertising a winning % on such and such parlays like another poster just did in his signature (without ANY games posted anywhere, you can figure out whom in my MLB thread). Now THAT is an issue and would be if i said i was "10-3 in parlays" or "3 years of winning parlays" (all unposted) which I did not. LOL
 
No Zion? Should be No Problem. Pels did beat these Kings 133-100 earlier without Zion (Kings had Heuter and Monk this game too). Interesting tidbits about Bulls/Heat-Bulls are 6-2 ATS last 8 games against Miami, (4-1 ATS last 5 in Miami), 5-5 SU L10, and this was with Playoff (Hemi) Butler . Total has gone over 5 of last 5 Bulls game and 10 of last 11 Heat games. The stats and matchups bear these stats out as I have Pels-6. Bulls PK-1, with a total projected in the 215-220 range.

⭐️Pelicans+2-112
⭐️Chicago/Miami Over 205-120
Bulls+2.5-115
 
in the 2nd game I've liked the over a bit more than the first but dont like doubling up too much on same game, however none of the 5 games played between these 2 this year had less than 211 points. They averaged just over 237 in their H2H games this year. Kings defense is abysmal and won't be able to tamper the scoring like most post-season able teams, after all they are 21st in defensive efficiency giving up 113.3 points per 100 possessions. These are also 2 high profile offenses, both ranking in the top 15 in the NBA with Pelicans ranked 8th in offense, scoring 115 per 100 possessions, and KIngs are 13th (113.8 pts per).

⭐️Kings/Pelicans Over 210-118
 
Thank you Pels for cashing my top play tonight or it'd have been ugly. Pels couldnt get even get the team total just pushed, sat on 95 points for 3-4 minutes and didnt seem to want to score final 2-3 minutes. playing sloppy like they did at the end won't help them next round.

For Saturday:

⭐️Knicks-2-120
⭐️Twolves ML-118
Magic+5
Philly/New York Over 209
 
thanks Fred, really good Saturday hitting my top 2 plays of the day for some good profit and the Knicks over came through late; Lake show looking good early but I can relax now and be happy regardless.
 
Put these in tonight For Sunday:

⭐️Pacers ML-112
⭐️OKC-8
⭐️Mavericks-2-115
⭐️Boston/Miami over 208-120
Boston-13-120
Indiana/Milwaukee over 231
NO/OKC UNDER 216
 
Last edited:
thank you!

adding a Celtics play as it lines up with my numbers. I have Boton-17, with the total in 220's (larger play on total).

Boston-13-120
 
Loves2kickass said:
Great job today. No units are posted so i thought I'd lend a hand to help others follow along for transparency purposes.

NBA Play-In and Playoffs

Star plays (2 units) 4-6, -5.0 units
Regular plays (1 unit) 2-6, -4.72 units
Overall 6-12, -9.72 units
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Why? You start off by saying Great Job. You look small and petty bro. Obviously it is personal for you. Beware the "Green-eyed Monster." It's Shakespeare. Look it up. It fits you perfectly.
 
Yeah i've been looking at all the stats and making up my mind then the Maxey news hit. Just heard from a friend in Philly that sports talk radio in Philly is reporting Embiid AND Maxey are playing tonight. Figured they would but wanted some news. All overs tonight, hit the OKC under last night 1 push on boston total and lost indy over yesterday, more unders in game 1 with nerves and tighter defense throughout. Scoring should pick up tonight.

⭐️Nuggets-7-105
⭐️Orlando/Cleveland Over 202-115
⭐️Philly/NY Over 204
Magic+6-118
Philly+6.5-115
LA/Denver Over 223-115
 
Of course Suggs gets hurt in 1st half and magic look lost on Def without him, now they cant even score. at least philly looking good-figured they'd come out guns blazing, not wanting to go down 0-2.

going to play the 2nd half

76ers ML-115 (Live 2nd half)
 
That sixers game was nuts, at least got the over by a point and sixers to cover game, thought we had the 2nd half bet, until maxey was thrown to the ground knicks hit that 3. wild ending. Sixers should have won that one but there was no way this one wasnt going to be close. hopefully denver shows up now.
 
Good spot before 2nd half with a favorable line for nuggets to win. dont see them losing tonight.

Denver ML-130 (Live 2nd qtr down 45-37)
 
Have to thank denver for getting down 20 and the ability to keep live betting which saved my Monday. right after i posted the above they went down 20 so and was offered +6, seemed like a no-brainer (was told in my tg group i was wasting money and should bet Fakers! ha!) at least it worked out unlike Philly who lost it at the end, missing that live bet but hit the game spread easy and the over by a point. Stupidly i had Cavs marked down and talked myself out of it and onto Magic late in the day, need to go back to just trusting my gut and not changing.

⭐️Minnesota Twolves ML-135
⭐️Milwaukee Bucks ML-110
Clippers+3-120
Pacers/Bucks UNDER 224-115
Phx/Minnesota OVER 211
 
PirateAlew said:
Have to thank denver for getting down 20 and the ability to keep live betting which saved my Monday. right after i posted the above they went down 20 so and was offered +6, seemed like a no-brainer (was told in my tg group i was wasting money and should bet Fakers! ha!) at least it worked out unlike Philly who lost it at the end, missing that live bet but hit the game spread easy and the over by a point. Stupidly i had Cavs marked down and talked myself out of it and onto Magic late in the day, need to go back to just trusting my gut and not changing.

⭐️Minnesota Twolves ML-135
⭐️Milwaukee Bucks ML-110
Clippers+3-120
Pacers/Bucks UNDER 224-115
Phx/Minnesota OVER 211
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Good luck. Clippers +3 is that an error? Only reason I ask is that line was up only like yesterday morning for a short time
 
TheDodgers said:
Good luck. Clippers +3 is that an error? Only reason I ask is that line was up only like yesterday morning for a short time
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No error, it was 2.5 at a could and 2 and 1.5 most of this am, i bought to 3 from 2.5 , was wating til i had my full card together--and hadnt slept since Sunday working on a business consulting engagement so my brain is getting forgetful. I just got up from a 3 hour rare cat nap and see Clips now -1.5...i guess Leonard is in, GREAT
 
PirateAlew said:
adding to original, they should roll late 2H

Twovles ML-115 (Live 2nd half)
Click to expand...

Just like last night when i doubled and tripled down on denver at half and down 20. i had that feeling minny wasnt losing this one. the two largest best this playoffs so far. Hope some of you hit this one too.
 
another instinct play but not nearly as large as Denver or wolves.

Bucks+7 (Live going to 4th quarter -score 92-83)
 
hope we're right, at least they have all their weapons tonight unlike bucks. that first 5 minutes of the 4th for them was just silly. i should waited til they were down 20, haha
 
PirateAlew said:
i missed the collapse. fell asleep with clips up a few in the 2nd half and starting to click, wake up and see they lose by 3. pushed my game bet but lose my live play. ugh guess i missed Luca going off.
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Luka didn't go off other than 1Q last 6 minutes.

He had 7 in 4th quarter. But, two clutch 3s.
 
ahh now i see it was Kyrie hitting some key shots...good thing i slept through the end

Wednesday
⭐️Cetics-14-115
⭐️Pelicans+8-115
Boston/Miami over 203-120
 
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