NBA Monday, 1 Big One.

[Inspekdah]

Record Updated below... been hitting 4 unit plays about 80% of the time I believe this year and hit a nice 5 unit one last night with PHO 1Q. Last night one caught my eye BIG time and when I saw Killa on it I looked into it further and am now all over it for a very large play.




MIAMI -3 7 UNITS:wacka wacka:

First, you have to look at the history between these teams and the angles. Miami has been struggling.. they are a year older and are without their most EFFECTIVE player, not most talented anymore. They have moved from being a team effective in the half court to borderline hard to watch. However, they are playing much more competively as of late and need to really rally ASAP to stay in contention in the East for when the Daddy returns.

I watched the first game vs. the Sixers in Philly... and my god did Philly light it up from 3 in unreal fashion. They were dominated through half and came out with a ton of energy and really let the crowd get behind them. That motivation should be working the opposite way tonight with the Heat.. vs. a poor road team who just won easily over the Bulls at home.

Sixers also are off after this game until Dec. 2nd. Hmmmm... AI who hangs in Atlantic City whenever he gets a chance... is in MIAMI and doesn't have a game for about a week? Sounds a bit iffy to me.

Wade should get the calls here... there's no one on the court that can stay in front of him play in and play out. The lineup has been getting shook around for the Heat... but this is as much a fade of the Sixers off a big win than it is boasting about this Heat squad. Philly has been borderline terrible since comming out the gates strong vs. some weaker clubs. I'll ride the trends that says Miami protects home-court tonight even without the Daddy...

DALLAS -3 1Q 2 UNITS:wacka wacka: SYSTEM PLAY

UTAH -6.5 1 UNIT



Leans:

UTAH -6 COVERS ARTICLE FADE

Also, Orlando this season has been horrible at traveling away from home and playing the next game on the road. They have done this I believe 4 times and have lost SU 3 of those times. Most impressive road win comming 60 miles away in Miami.. and beyond that perhaps the Celtics?

AK should absolutely shut down Turk if they go with that matchup. After that... their only hope is to have great nights from Arroyo and Nelson... which I don't think you can rely on. Boozer and DH will battle it out.. and I don't see either comming away with a dominating performance over the other.

 

[tuck321]

76er last game was a 13 point loss to Cleveland which complicates things a lot. GL

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL, they look good. I may join in on these plays.

 

[Inspekdah]

Putting a little 1Q system together....explain it later.

Dallas -3 1Q 2 Units

 

[Inspekdah]

Utah -6.5 1 Unit

 

[Inspekdah]

TRIAL-VERY SIMPLE-1Q ATS SYSTEM
1-0:wacka wacka:

1Q system I'm going to give a go is pretty simple. First, you take the team with the better record... at this point it does not matter who is home or away. We are just trying to figure out who is the better team on a nuetral court to begin with.

Then, if the better team is home take their home record and compare it to the road team's away record. Usually in this case the team with the better record will have a better homecourt record. However, if the better team (on a nuetral court) has a better road record vs. the home court team then an AWAY play and HOME fade is possible.

Then, take a look at the last 5 1Q's both teams have played. If the team with the better overall record, and the better home/away record depending on where the game is being played... look at their recent 1Q performances. If they have won SU at LEAST 3 out of their last 5 in that scenario (Home/Away) then the system is still in play. Lastly, you do the same for the other team. If they have LOST at least 3 of their last 5 1Q's SU in that scenario (Home if Home, Away if Away) then this would be considered a PLAY.

Quick rundown of this system that came out the gates 1-0.

-Take the team with the better overall record.
-If this is the home team, the home team must have a better home record than the away team's road record.
-If this is a road team, the road team's AWAY record must be better than the home team's HOME record.
-Take a look at the last 5 1Q's.. if the home team is the play only look at the last 5 home games. They must have won the 1Q SU at least 3 out of the last 5 or 60%.
-Take a look at the other side, the opposition must have lost at LEAST 3 1Q's SU in their last 5. So if a road team... must have lost 3 out of their last 5 1Q's SU.


What does that give us? Well.. I'm hoping it gives you of course the better team (Overall Record, Better Home/Road record vs. Opponents Road/Home Record). Then the L5 is to bring some recent trends to the system. We want teams comming out the gates strong vs. teams who are struggling to come out the gates. You have the better team, you have the better team in that scenario (road/away) and a team whose momentum early is better than their oppositions early (1Q).

Tonight Dallas has a better record than Minny, and they have a better record at home than Minny does on the road (Obviously). Dallas, has won SU 1Q's 4 out of their last 5 to go 4-1. Minny, on the road has lost their L5 1Q's 3 times with a tie.. so a 1-3-1 record. Therefore, this was a play. Spread's are not taken into consideration... perhaps I can work that into it at a later time...

 

[3gamblers]

GL inspektah...MIa looks good

 

[3gamblers]

UTAH looks fucks up in the 2q

 

[Inspekdah]

Thanks 3gamblers... yeah Utah never comes out strong... or I would have hit that 1Q lol...they have a ton of double-digit comebacks... and will need another one here tonight. Cover is no where near blown in Utah though...

 

[3gamblers]

inspektah.... 1 down...MIA is $$$
waiting for a Utah comeback....

 

[Inspekdah]

Utah -7 2h +100 2 Units

 

[3gamblers]

GL inspekdah....lets go UTAH