NBA ML dogs 1.22

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 58-100, 36.71%, +0.8786 units
Spreads: 87-81-10, 48.88%, +12.5556 units

okay, I don't like a lot of what I see today. However, several lines are moving in directions I like.

At +4.5, I don't really like Orlando at Cleveland, but it's 5.5 now at 5dimes, and it's 5 most other places. At 6, I might get some good value on the ML with the Magic. Both these teams are in bad spots, and both are on utterly stunning losing streaks. Howard was held in check last game, and I doubt that'll happen again...even with the Cavs bigs...

But the biggest problem the cavs have right now is that they aren't driving to the basket. Portland put the stranglehold....FUCKING PORTLAND.

This should be a funny shit game.

Also, the Over in the Memphis @ Denver game. 233...probably too much, imo. But if it keeps falling (and again I've seen 232 at 5dimes) I may play the over. JR Smith's going to need to shoot better than 12% from behind the arc... Memphis being a defensive shitstain they've become, we can rest well-assured that this game will have each team over 100...and it wouldn't shock me at all to see it by the end of the 3rd.

I'll have to get real good numbers for these, though...as it looks right now, I think taking a day off might be prudent.

Boston is one team I may be forced to play the points with because of the line skyrocketing...and depending on the numbers I see, I might play the Knicks too. But nothing at all really jumps out at me right now.

GL today folks...
 
Leaning on Knicks also just waiting for odds + lines to come out ...
Do u have any information on the status of Marbury or Wade for todays game?

Regardless GL today ...

:shake:
 
Marbury has been upgraded to probable. Shaq is doubtful...Wade is questionable. On B2Bs, it's fairly common for J Will to sit out, too, though I haven't seen anything on that for today.

Wade was struggling yesterday after he hurt his ankle...he did play through it, though.
 
Good Luck red...

I think Jason Williams knee has improved to the point back to backs are no longer an issue. This is however a 4th in 5 days so maybe that changes his status here. I really dont know yet.

Just not crazy about this card at the moment...
 
SN...me neither. We'll see how it goes. I'm leaning toward no bets today.

DuY!, I have no idea about gsw......the new guys' additions to the team haven't become clear to me yet.
 
Knicks +120 (theGreek)

typically, I think in reverse terms of what I'm thinking about this game. B2Bs and 4th in 5s usually give the team with the supposed deficiency some extra value. In this case, it would not surprise me at all for Dwayne Wade to not play. Wade was hampered significantly yesterday, and waking up today may very well not let him walk properly. He may also feel fine and play.......Also, though J Will's knee is getting better and this may not be an issue anymore, I'm thinking they might just sit his ass too (they'd been doing that in the second of B2Bs earlier this season).

Shaq is still out. Starbury is playing. I think there's good value in this line.
 
Small bet on my side, I took the +2 start ...
Knicks have been doing me good as of late - Just hoping they keep covering their spreads ;)
 
Orlando +200ish.

Took 3 different wagers to fill up my side, so it works out to about $1 shorter than that...
 
Since Mike Fratello was fired, the Grizz have had 3 away games.

at Houston, they scored 109
at Chicago, they scored 66
at LA (Clip), they scored 91

Now, I'm not saying the Nuggets are a great defensive team. And I don't think the embarrassment at Chicago will repeat itself, but I do think it'll be awfully tough for Memphis to hit 110 themselves. And I doubt the Nuggets will go for scoring 130 tonight. The more I think through this game, the more I like the under here. IF the Grizz hit 110 or 115, then this will likely go over. I don't think they will.

Grizzlies/Nuggets Under 233.5
 
Rethinking.......

Spurs @ Celtics...

Spurs are shooting better now, and they're still playing good defense. The Celtics should have no ability to run offense, and Manu and Tony should get 30 fast break points alone...

San Antonio is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
interestingly...
San Antonio is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games on the road

which means that if they don't cover, then it's because they don't win. The last thing you should do with this game is take the points. Either take the 5:1 or lay the chalk.

San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boston
San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston

Boston is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Boston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 3-14-1 ATS this season at home

Again, remarkably, the Spurs have been BETTER on the ROAD than in San ANTONE this season...

I'm taking the Spurs on a B2B on the road

Spurs -9 (+108)
 
To recap:

Grizzlies/Nuggets Under 233.5 (-110)
Spurs -9 (+108)
Orlando +199.5 (matchbook)
Knicks +120 (theGreek)
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Charolette ML
Click to expand...

Okay. Why? Best I could get right now +380. I don't think that's enough to warrant the risk. Are you Sure the Felton is playing? Or May? Or even Primo?
 
Not sure whos playin but Ford I believe is OUT. Char D holding opponents under 87ppg last 5. they are 3-2 SU. Stringing together 3 in a row is a big lift for this team...
 
Beating Atlanta twice and Philly once don't make for great wins.

And while Ford is out, the only PG Charlotte has is Jeff McInnis.

I can't make that leap bro, but I hope you win it!
 
....and the knicks decide to take the 1st quarter off....

it's ridiculous what happens sometimes in the NBA...
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Gotta love 2H betting! Knicks shooting 14% right now...
Click to expand...

14%...

scared.gif
 
Impossible to cap shit like that for the knicks.. No wade no shaq.. Jwill on a back to back .. 4 in 5 nights
 
Oh, hey, I don't feel bad about it at all...and besides, the knicks are actually IN the game in the latter half of the fourth.

I'd make that bet every night if I could...
 
fuck you spurs.
:angry:

on a lighter note, it was a good day anyway. Made about a unit in ML dogs.

ML dogs: 59-101, 36.88%, +1.86975 units
Spreads: 88-82-10, 48.89%, +12.5556 units
 
Nuggs looked nice tonight.. they have a favorable schedule comin up.. should be an interesting run they go on.
 
yeah, they'll win a lot in the near term...Melo even out of shape looked pretty good with 28pts and 6 rebounds...now we'll see how they do against a team that plays defense.
 
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