NBA Line Movement Plays

E

Eric8923

Pretty much a regular
I have noticed a strong trend in NBA plays while watching the line movement as it correlates with percent of bets on a certain side or total.
I monitor and track all lines in the early morning. Selecting a few that meet my criteria for unusual line movement. If at any time I observe one of those lines go against my criteria, that play is removed from my board. If the line(s) continue to meet my criteria through out the day and 2 hours before the start of the game, It is posted and added to my tracking list.

I am not sure how early the lines will be posted on Saturday and Sunday due to my work schedule, but I will do my best to keep this thread updated throughout the weekend.


this thread will keep track of all plays in either Basketball or Football that meet the play criteria from 11/10-11/16.


Since 11/10:
NBA: 17-7
NFL/CFB :17-12
Total:34-19
Win Percentage: 64.150%
34-19 record probability: 01.321%
CBB no plays:3-8

11/10:
Hornets +5 1/2 loss
Pacers -2 1/2 Win
Bulls -9 Win

11/11:
Lakers +9 1/2 Win
Thunder +3 1/2 Loss
Orlando +11 Win
Spurs/Warriors under 197 1/2 Loss
Toledo/NIU under 60 1/2 Win

11/12:
OKC/Boston under 196 1/2 Loss
OKC +6 Win
Orlando +6 Win
Ind/Mia under 187 1/2 Win
Minnesota +6 1/2 Loss

11/13:
Buffalo +4 1/2 Loss
USM/UTSA under 46 1/2 Win
CAL/USC under 72 Win
Sacramento +5 1/2 Win

11/14:
Tulsa/UCF under 54 Win
Miami/Atlanta under 193 Loss
Boston +5 Win
Charlotte/Phoenix under 200 Win
CBB no plays: 3-8

11/15:
Pitt/UNC under 67 Loss
Penn State -12 Win
OSU/Minn under 56 Win
Illinois +3 1/2 Loss
WKU/Army over 70 1/2 Win
GT/Clem over 58 Win
VT +3 Win
TCU/Kansas under 58 Loss
App State +14 Win
Washington/Arizona line under 61 Win
Florida -7 Loss
Rice/Marshall under 63 Win
Tulane Memphis under 47 1/2 Win
Alabama -10 Loss
Texas State/South Alabama under 51 Win
Oregon State +9 Win
Maryland +11 Loss
North Texas +6 1/2 Loss
Orlando/Washington under 193 Win
Indiana +8 1/2 Win
Detroit +9 1/2 Win
Brooklyn/Portland under 205 1/2 Win
Charlotte/Golden State under 200 1/2 Win

11/16:
Minnesota +2 Loss
Philly +4 1/2 Loss
Philly/GB under 54 Loss
Wash/TB under 46 Win
Den/STL under 49 1/2 Win
Indianapolis -3 Loss
Milwaukee +5 Win
OKC +5 Win
GS/LAL under 211 Loss
 
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Worthy notes.
Pelicans 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland
Pelicans 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meeting against an opponent with a losing record SU.
 
as well, you see comments on various forums, like the books are" begging for such and such teams" money
 
Clev home after the west coast swing, usually a fade situation, but a big move like this ......might have driven the line past it's fair value
 
Indiana meets the criteria, I miss read the opening line. 75% on Utah, yet line moved from Ind -2 to -2 1/2. Small movement but movement nonetheless.

Chicago still on the radar. 77% on Detroit, but no line movement still remains-9.
 
Just a query as to where you get your percentages from? There seems to be a bit of variance across those monitoring sites
 
I was tracking that a lot last season, and it seemed to work best with totals, and only if the line moved at least 2.5 points. My speculation is that by the time the books move that far they start to open up a middle and they really don't want to do that unless they are forced by the circumstances. Circumstances could be an injury or other form of accident, or because A)some smart fellow(s) put a boatload of money on a side that far outweighs all the other bets, or B) the book has some inside info and doesn't care if all the bets are stacked on one side because the book knows those bets will probably lose. Either way it would make sense to fade the public...
 
Looks like the system could really get put to the test today.
Reverse line movement on Orlando, OKC, Lakers, Dallas.

Heavy dog no movement on the under for the Dallas game. 93% on the over, no movement.

I will check back in a few hours and see if the movement sticks.
 
what do you think of the Milwaukee OKC game?

I see it opened at +4.5, went down to +2.5, now back up to +3.0
 
Being an OKC fan, them as 2 1/2 point underdogs scares me. Especially without their two leading scorers. However it does fit the system. I will continue to monitor the spread but they are likely a play tonight. I probably won't pay them, but might tease it with one or two of the other lines. Again, this is just experimental to see how well it holds up. Not advising anyone to take OKC.

Right now it is looking like Orlando, OKC, and LA are ATS plays with reverse line movement. Most of the bets are coming in on the favs, but the line still drops at least a point in each.

Overs in the LAL and OKC games are also possible plays. 64% on the under for the LAL/Mem game but line moves from 196 1/2 to 197. Bigger jump for OKC under. 62% on the under, but the line jumps from 187 1/2 to 189 1/2.
I will check back in a few hours and see how much changes.

I miss read Dallas, money coming in on Sac and the line is moving in favor of Dallas. Same with the over. Both are off the board for this system.
 
83% on Memphis, line drops from -11 1/2 to -9 1/2.
77% on Milwuakee, line still on the initial drop of -4 1/2 to -2 1/2.
63% on Mil/Okc under, line jumps from 187 1/2 to 189 1/2.
75% on the Sa/Gs over, line drops from 201 to 199 1/2.

La/Mem over off the board. Line dropped from 197 to 195 1/2.
 
Final update.
61% on Toronto, line down from -11 1/2 to -11. Would be a no play by me based off of my gut, but will track anyways.
81% on Memphis, line down from -11 1/2 to -9 1/2. Will be a play on the Lakers.
70% on Milwaukee, line down from -4 1/2 to -3 1/2. Will be a play on the Thunder.

I'm not sure how to read the Spurs under. 75% on the over, line drops from 201 to 197 1/2. Which is drastic but now says bets are 50/50. Will probably play the under anyways after watching the Spurs game last night. Still fits the reverse line movement.
 
Another reverse line movement to watch is in CFB. Over in Toledo/NIU opened at 66 1/2. Has dropped to 60 1/2 with 77 on the over. The under would be a play in this system.
 
I did do a 3 team 4 1/2 point teaser between the LAL, OKC, and SA under to cover for a loss if SA can stay under 202 1/2. Same teaser would have fit yesterday with NO's drop.
 
90% on Utah over, remains at 198
72% on OKC over, drops from 198 to 197
94% on Boston, drops from -6 to 5 1/2
78% on Indiana over, drops from 190 1/2 to 188 1/2
82% on Miami, line remains -8
82% on Orlando over, drops from 192 1/2 to 192
59% on New York, line drops from -7 1/2 to -6
87% on Portland, jumps from +1 to +1 1/2
70% on Brooklyn, jumps from +4 1/2 to +5 1/2


These are the current lines for today that meet RLM or Heavy dog with no line movement in the NBA. Will check back in a few hours to see which remain. Also a CFB play on the list, 85% on Ball State over yet drops from 62 1/2 to 61 1/2.
 
Yeah it was impressive last Sunday in the NFL. Jets, Buf/Miami under, and a few others. We will see how it does tonight.
 
Utah under off the board. Line moved to 198 1/2.
Indiana off the board. Line moved from -8 to -8 1/2.
Denver off the board. Line moved to -3 with 56% on Denver.
Pheonix off the board. Line moved from +5 1/2 to +4.
Ball State under is off the board. Line dropped from 62 1/2 to 61 1/2, then right back up to 64 1/2.

OKC/Boston over down from 198 to 196 1/2 with 66% on the over. Under 196 1/2 is a play in this system.
Boston -6 remains at 90% with no line movement. OKC +6 is a play in this system.
Orl/NYK over down from 192 1/2 to 192 with 85% on the over. Under 192 is a play in this system.
New York down from -7 1/2 to -6 with 74% on New York. Orlando +6 is a play in this system.

Ind/Mia over down from 190 1/2 to 187 1/2 with 73% on the over. Under 187 1/2 would be a play in this system. However, I will not play it. Just going to track it. All 3 loses this week were lines that moved 2 1/2 points or more. New Orleans dropped from +8 to +5 1/2. OKC dropped from from +4 1/2 to as low as +2. SA/GS under moved from 201 to 197 1/2.
 
Minnesota +6 1/2 is also a play as a heavy dog without movement. 88% on Houston plus -6 1/2 which is what it opened at. If it moves to -7 or higher it's off the board.
 
I really don't like how most of the plays are in the same games. Just gotta keep track for statistical information.
 
OKC +6 1/2 now goes over the opening. I will leave it posted, but will not play it. I think I will continue to monitor and remove a play if it goes over the opening line up until tip off. All other 3 are still on at the posted lines.
 
good luck, off topic but keep an eye on bookmaker when they use an" oddball number" on the fav second from close (tor -702) last night.(.especially late.).something you might want at look at over time
 
Even the Knicks game hit the Under. I removed the Knicks call after it moved over the opening line 3 1/2 hours before tip off. OKC +6 went over about 1 1/2 before tip off. So far 3-1.
 
59% on Miami Dolphins, line drops from -5 to -4.
92% on South Miss/UTSA over, line drops from 47 to 46.
72% on Cal/USC over, line remains at 72.
51% on Cal, line moves from +14 to +15.
69% on Memphis, line remains at -6 1/2.
64% on the Memp/Sac under, line jumps from 190 1/2 to 192 1/2.


I will continue to monitor throughout the day.
 
problem with bet percentages, from places like sports spy, is that you don't know the denominations of the bets, sports insights tried to get that info from the books awhile back, they would not divulge....there is a consensus tab on the sbr odds board, that you can review
don't know that I would trust it though...fyi
 
007, I meant to ask you about what you meant on the bookmaker post? They had Tor ML at -700 against the Thunder? Also, what is SBR? I will look into it and compare.
 
Just noticed all plays posted are 8-4 including the Toledo play. 66%. Not too shabby









Edit: 8-5. Apparently I struggle with counting.
 
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all that matters is that its + money, that's all that needs to be counted Eri!
Could you make 1 post of what the plays would be for today..
 
Yeah i watch the lines and will probably make the system decisions around 2 hours before tip off so around 4pm central.
 
52% on Miami, Line drops from -5 to -4 1/2. Buffalo Bills +4 1/2 will be a play.
63% on USM/UTSA over, line drops from 47 to 46 1/2. Under 46 1/2 will be a play.
62% on CAL/USC over 72, line remains at 72. Under will be a play.
65% on Memphis -6 1/2, line drops to -5 1/2. Sacramento +5 1/2 will be a play.
 
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