NBA Line Movement Plays

www.sbrodds.com.......

just something I see bookmaker do often, most of the moneyline moves are in 5 10, 15,20 cent increments, look at the oddball number used on the Miami game =391 (second from close)......I look to fade the fav ....9-1 so far this year.....fyi
 
Boom. Finally a solid day. The one I was the most confident about ends up being the only loser. 4 consecutive winning days. Feeling good about this system.
 
Eri8923 said:
52% on Miami, Line drops from -5 to -4 1/2. Buffalo Bills +4 1/2 will be a play.
63% on USM/UTSA over, line drops from 47 to 46 1/2. Under 46 1/2 will be a play.
62% on CAL/USC over 72, line remains at 72. Under will be a play.
65% on Memphis -6 1/2, line drops to -5 1/2. Sacramento +5 1/2 will be a play.
Click to expand...

Love this post simple and to the point, and everyone knows what the number and side are.
 
Yeah, that will be the format I use from here on out. If it proves to be as productive a system as it has for the rest of the week. I will make this a weekly thread, 64% ain't too shabby.)
 
Rip007 said:
problem with bet percentages, from places like sports spy, is that you don't know the denominations of the bets, sports insights tried to get that info from the books awhile back, they would not divulge....there is a consensus tab on the sbr odds board, that you can review
don't know that I would trust it though...fyi
Click to expand...
Rip,you do not need to know the cash value of the bets,the line movements tell you.
Lines move on money(generally) for example;100 bets struck on a game,99 of them on the same side of $10 each,1 bet of $3000 on the other side will move the line against the consensus pick..The reason a line is moving away from the consensus pick is there is more money on that side(in general)

good thread,keep it up Eri
 
could not believe bills didn't hit, that 24 yards defensive pass int in the 3rd was fin's play of the night :rofl:

goodluck today
 
I was at work last night checking my phone periodically. After they were up 9-3, I figured that cat was in the bag. Glad I didn't watch it. I probably would have been pissed.

58% on Den/Ind under, line jumps from 194 1/2 to 196 1/2.
58% on Cle/Bos under, line jumps from 211 to 212 1/2
85% on Phoenix, line remains at 5 1/2.

Doesn't look like many meet the first look criteria. I expect there to be a lot of plays tomorrow and Sunday though. We will see which ones of these 3 work out for today.
 
I decided to add another element to record keeping. Probability of current record. Odds of going 11-6 on a two out come situation is 09.442%.
 
ManchesterUk said:
Rip,you do not need to know the cash value of the bets,the line movements tell you.
Lines move on money(generally) for example;100 bets struck on a game,99 of them on the same side of $10 each,1 bet of $3000 on the other side will move the line against the consensus pick..The reason a line is moving away from the consensus pick is there is more money on that side(in general)

good thread,keep it up Eri
Click to expand...

thank you
 
i see 81% on the cavs but the line has stayed at 5.0 to 5.5 for a few hours now

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody id="NBA-11.14.2014-710" style="border: 1px solid rgb(51, 51, 51) !important;">[TR="class: alt block"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt"]
[TD]11/14/14[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]Make Pick

[/TD]
[TD]709[/TD]
[TD]Cleveland[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]-5.0(-105)[/TD]
[TD]-220[/TD]
[TD]o 210.0 (103)[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]1881[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]81%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]97%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]53%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt block"]
[TD]7:35PM[/TD]
[TD]710[/TD]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD]211[/TD]
[TD]5.0(-115)[/TD]
[TD]185[/TD]
[TD]u 210.0 (-125)[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]19%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]3%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]47%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
None of the morning looks stuck. So I am going to try another rule bend. If a play comes into RLM criteria later in the day, without reversing field. I will play it.

75% on the Tulsa/UCF over, line drops from 54 1/2 to 54. Under 54 will be a play.
85% on the Miami/Atlanta over, line drops from 196 to 193. Under 193 will be a play.
82% on Cleveland -5, line remains at -5. Boston +5 will be a play.
83% on the Charlotte/Phoenix over, line drops from 201 to 200. Under 200 will be a play.




These are CBB games that meet the criteria. However, since it is so early in the season I will not place any money on these bets.

74% on the VCU/Tenn over, the line drops from 142 to 139. Under 139 would have been a play. 666 bets total. Loss
74% on Georgia Southern, Line moves from +21 to +23 1/2. Illinois -23 1/2 would have been a play. 3178 bets total. Loss
80% on Townson, line remains at +14 1/2. Alabama -14 1/2 would have been a play. 84 bets total. Win
72% on Ball State, line moves from +23 to +26 1/2. Utah -26 1/2 would have been a play. 247 bets total. Loss
75% on the W. Carolina/MSU under, line remains at 145. Over 145 would have been a play. 81 total bets. Loss
93% on Purdue -23 1/2, line remains at 23 1/2. Samford +23 1/2 would have been a play. 1675 total bets. Loss
84% on Mass -7 1/2, line drops from -7 1/2 to -6. Siena +6 would have been a play. 1050 total bets. Loss
88% on Xavier -15, line remains at -15. N arizona +15 would have been a play. Unknown total bets. Loss
75% on Missouri State -14 1/2, line drops from -14 1/2 to -13 1/2. E. Illionis would have been a play. 84 total bets. Win
99% on Marquette -19, line drops from -19 to -18 1/2. Tenn-Martin +18 1/2 would have been a play. 84 total bets. Win
98% on Cal -22 1/2, line remains at -22 1/2. Alcorn St. +22 1/2 would have been a play. Unknown total bets. Loss
 
Last edited:
j3pj3p said:
i see 81% on the cavs but the line has stayed at 5.0 to 5.5 for a few hours now

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: alt block"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt"]
[TD]11/14/14[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]Make Pick
[/TD]
[TD]709[/TD]
[TD]Cleveland[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]-5.0(-105)[/TD]
[TD]-220[/TD]
[TD]o 210.0 (103)[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]1881[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]81%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]97%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]53%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt block"]
[TD]7:35PM[/TD]
[TD]710[/TD]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD]211[/TD]
[TD]5.0(-115)[/TD]
[TD]185[/TD]
[TD]u 210.0 (-125)[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]19%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]3%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]47%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...


Yup, they are a play. Good call.
 
On the right side of yet another wire game. Feels fantastic. 14-7 fellas.

Also, the CBB games are looking sloppy. I will continue to monitor them but will not play them until it has proven profitable. I expect Vegas will need a week or to to get their feel of all the teams.
 
I will be posting the CFB plays, there are a few that I can already tell will meet the criteria. Ohio State under and Penn state with the points are two. They should be posted by 1030 am central tomorrow. Anyone interested in tailing they will be up at least an 30 minutes before the first games kick off. I will cover all teams up to the 5 pm eastern games on the morning update.

I will do another update for all games that start after 5pm eastern at around 3 pm central. Lets hope this 60%+ trend holds up throughout the weekend.
 
[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody id="NBA-11.15.2014-518" style="border: 1px solid rgb(51, 51, 51) !important;">[TR="class: alt block"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt"]
[TD]11/15/14[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]Make Pick

[/TD]
[TD]517[/TD]
[TD]Charlotte[/TD]
[TD]202[/TD]
[TD]10.0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]o 200.5 (-110)[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]54%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]75%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt block"]
[TD]10:35PM[/TD]
[TD]518[/TD]
[TD]Golden State[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]-10.0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]u 200.5 (-110)[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]46%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
will continue to monitor the o/u line
but I hate totals so might stay away
 
Early CFB plays:
83% on Pitt/UNC over, line drops from 69 to 67. Under 67 will be a play.
59% on Temple +10, line jumps from +10 to +12. Penn State -12 will be a play.
90% on the OSU/Minn over 59 1/2, line drops from 59 1/2 to 56. Under 56 will be a play.
79% on Iowa -5 1/2, line drops from -5 1/2 to -3 1/2. Illinois +3 1/2 will be a play.
61% on WKU/Army under, line jumps from 69 1/2 to 70 1/2. Over 70 1/2 will be a play
72% on the GT/Clem over, line drops from 58 1/2 o 58. Under 58 will be a play.
75% on Duke -6 1/2, line moves from -6 1/2 to -3. VT +3 will be a play.
81% on TCU/Kansas over 60, line drops from 60 to 58. Under 58 will be a play.
88% on Ark State -14, line remains at -14. App State +14 will be a play.
76% on Washington/Arizona over 61 1/2, line drops from 61 1/2 to 61. Under 61 will be a play.
68% on South Carolina +5, line jumps from +5 to +7. Florida -7 will be a play.
97% on Rice/Marshall over 63 1/2, line drops from 63 1/2 to 63. Under 63 will be a play.
99% on Tulane/Memphis over 48, line drops from 48 to 47 1/2. Under 47 1/2 will be a play.
71% on Miss State +7, line jumps from +7 to +10. Alabama -10 will be a play.
 
I am still taking Illinois though. It is one of the one that I am hesitant on though, but 4 of the 6 winners over the last 48 hours I was hesitant about. A lot of money on Iowa, and the line has yet to go against them.
 
I had the Unc/Pitt under in a parlay with Penn State and Clem/GT under. The amount of fustration flowing through my veins right now is astronomical. Horrible defense. 3 minutes left, and they get a 25 yard rush up the field with broken tackles.
 
j3pj3p said:
[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: alt block"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt"]
[TD]11/15/14[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]Make Pick
[/TD]
[TD]517[/TD]
[TD]Charlotte[/TD]
[TD]202[/TD]
[TD]10.0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]o 200.5 (-110)[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]54%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]75%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt block"]
[TD]10:35PM[/TD]
[TD]518[/TD]
[TD]Golden State[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]-10.0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]u 200.5 (-110)[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]46%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
will continue to monitor the o/u line
but I hate totals so might stay away
Click to expand...

If you wouldn't mind updating this later? Thanks
 
Following will be the remainder CFB and NBA plays for the night. I cannot do the CBB tonight, as I am short on time.

89% on Texas State/ South Alabama over 52 1/2, line drops from 52 1/2 to 51. Under 51 will be a play.
66% on Arizona State, line drops from -9 to -7. Oregon State +9 will be a play.
79% on Michigan State -11, line remains at -11. Maryland +11 will be a play.
74% on UTEP -6 1/2, line remains at -6 1/2. UNT +6 1/2 fits the system.


83% on Orlando/Washington over 195, line drops from 195 to 193. Under 193 will be a play.
76% on Chicago -9 1/2, line drops to -8 1/2. Indiana +8 1/2 will be a play.
85% on Memphis -9 1/2, line remains at -9 1/2. Detriot +9 1/2 will be a play.
71% on Brooklyn/Portland over 208, line drops to 205 1/2. Under 205 1/2 will be a play.
91% on Charlotte/Golden State over 202, line drops to 200 1/2. Under 200 1/2 will be a play.


Lets keep it at 65%+ tonight!!
 
Last edited:
TheCashMan said:
If you wouldn't mind updating this later? Thanks
Click to expand...

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: alt"]
[TD]11/15/14[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]Make Pick
[/TD]
[TD]517[/TD]
[TD]Charlotte[/TD]
[TD]202[/TD]
[TD]10.5(-115)[/TD]
[TD]475[/TD]
[TD]o 200.5 (-110)[/TD]
[TD="class: block"]7398[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]55%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]27%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]91%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt block"]
[TD]10:35PM[/TD]
[TD]518[/TD]
[TD]Golden State[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]-10.5(-105)[/TD]
[TD]-625[/TD]
[TD]u 200.5 (-110)[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]45%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]73%[/TD]
[TD="class: perc"]9%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

line is staying at 200.5
91% on the over
it opened at 202.5

about 4 hours til tip off
 
Eri quick question mate. Spurs opened at -2.5 then is now -1.5 with 69% on the Spurs

Should it be considered as a play?

But it will take a lot of balls to put money on the Kings against the Champs :prayer
 
Sorry J3 I've been at work all afternoon. Just got home. Yeah spurs would have been. play, but it would be tough for me to bet against the spurs in a pickem situation or as underdogs. Only time i take a spread against the Spurs is if they are a heavy favorite. Coach P is a monster.
 
Btw fellas my name is Eric. I usually put my name in my usernames, but I guess I didn't notice I was missing the "C". Anyways, I am counting the North Texas play as a loss. That puts us at 27-13 with 4 more plays out. Hopefully we can close out with a 3-1 run.

We are sitting at 67%. I think this system can sustain at least 65%. I will take 10+ units a week.
 
I got the GS/Char under at 199 1/2. They combined for a total of 35 points in the 4th to seal it at 199. What are the odds of having a 35 point quarter after all previous three were over 50? Simply amazing. I just need Oregon State to get it together in the 2H to have a pretty spectacular day.
 
I'd also like to know how many people would actually follow a thread if I made it a weekly thing. Running from Monday through Sunday each week. At least throughout the NBA regular season.

I don't want to go through all the trouble of posting plays and updating a tracker if I will be the only one following the thread.
 
Cant follow your picks because the bookie here sends me the lines at around 10:30pm philippine about 8-9 hrs before the games start and I have around 1 hr to decide what my picks are (i know it sucks). You post your plays around 5 AM in our time so there's really no chance for me to tail you. Good job following the line movements btw.
 
Eri8923 said:
I got the GS/Char under at 199 1/2. They combined for a total of 35 points in the 4th to seal it at 199. What are the odds of having a 35 point quarter after all previous three were over 50? Simply amazing. I just need Oregon State to get it together in the 2H to have a pretty spectacular day.
Click to expand...

i could not believe this actually hit lol
great call eric. see you again later :shake:
 
Eagles +5 1/2
Bucs/Skins under 45 1/2
Vikings +2 1/2.

Those are early leans
leans.
Will have the NFL plays posted by noon eastern.
 
Eric I dnt know football so I dont bet NFL games lol. I only bet NBA games haha. Right now Nuggets -1 looks good, no line movement so far.
 
Only a small amount of bets though. One of the keys to my system is taking the non favorite. So seeing how 93% is on Houston with the line staying at -5. Okc would be a play. Now i usually wait till tip off is a few hours away. That allows more bets to be placed and you get a better feel for what side Vegas is willing to take. If 80% is on Houston and the line is still at -5. Then OKC would likely be a play. There are other hit points in my system for deciding a play, but I can't disclose those.lol
 
95% on Rockets -5.0, it has not moved from 5, Pinnacle is even offering 4.5 at -105 right now. 11 hours from tip off.
76% on Knicks -1.0, it has not moved from 1. 5 hours from tip off
:shake:
 
Eri8923 said:
I'd also like to know how many people would actually follow a thread if I made it a weekly thing. Running from Monday through Sunday each week. At least throughout the NBA regular season.

I don't want to go through all the trouble of posting plays and updating a tracker if I will be the only one following the thread.
Click to expand...
keep this one rolling mate,there is plenty following,GL
 
Will do UK.
Everything is lining up for a huge play on Indy tonight for me.
If the rest of the NFL games are even slightly profitable, I will be laying points for large against NE.

Opened at NE +2 1/2, 63% on NE and jumps to +3. Luck at home? Yes please. Everyone will be riding the golden boy Brady tonight.

Unless the NFL is a total failure for me today, i will be dropping 5 units on Indy for the homerun to end the betting week.
 
HOU vs OKC - Under every time these 2 teams play each other in Oklahoma. Do not know about the spread though but I am leaning Thunder.

DEN vs NYK - No idea about the Total. Leaning Denver +1. Nuggets roster on paper looks like a 7-8 seed lock in the west do not know why they play horrible this season. Knicks played horrible last year on games that start early (2-5 AM in our timezone).
 
Yeah, Denver is looking like a no play. Right now it's looking like OKC +5 and the Under in the GS/LAL games will be the only plays in the NBA tonight. I will set those here in a few hours though. Right now are the NFL plays:

79% on Chicago -3, line drops from -3 to -2. Minnesota +2 will be a play.
77% on Green Bay -5 1/2, line drops from -5 1/2 to -4 1/2. Philly +4 1/2 will be a play.
75% on the GB/Philly over 56 1/2, line drops from 56 1/2 to 54. Under 54 will be a play.
71% on the Wash/TB over 46, line remains at 46. Under 46 will be a play.
66% on the Den/STL over 50 1/2, line drops from 50 1/2 to 49 1/2. Under 49 1/2 will be a play.
60% on NE +2 1/2, line drops from +2 1/2 to +3. Indy -3 will be a play.

Those are the NFL plays. I will check back with the NBA plays later today. Good luck today fellas. Lets get at least 4 wins out of the NFL.
 
Boston college is one too monitor in which I played. 81% on mass, line stayed at -5. BC currently winning 21-8
 
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