National League Championship Series

Coach what are your thoughts on playing the NLCS? My initial thoughts were Milwaukee but after considering the starter advantage for the Dodgers I just don't know.
 
Timh said:
Coach what are your thoughts on playing the NLCS? My initial thoughts were Milwaukee but after considering the starter advantage for the Dodgers I just don't know.
Click to expand...

Tim I am a big fan of the best bullpen who is a dog in the playoffs. If you look at the last 8-10 years if you went off this simple trend you would be sittin pretty. I really believe this is the Dodgers year, but I am going with the Brew crew in game one and if they lose I am going with em as a dog again in game two. I will be playing the under in games 1, 2, and 3...I decided this morning to bump everything to a dime and shoot for profit by the end of game 3...both teams can rake, Dodgers better starters, but Mil has the dominate pen...hope this helps...will be adding to game one shortly
 
Timh said:
Coach what are your thoughts on playing the NLCS? My initial thoughts were Milwaukee but after considering the starter advantage for the Dodgers I just don't know.
Click to expand...

I feel like mlw having couple lefties at top of their rotation for this series helps offset that seeing how much better lad is vs rhp. Also think the fact milw starters know they only need to give their team 5 strong innings allows them to pitch around unfavorable matchups in the lineup as they don’t have to be concerned w pitch counts. For me that helps balance the sp’s out as think lad has to have their starters pitch well and deeper into the game.
 
2daBank said:
I feel like mlw having couple lefties at top of their rotation for this series helps offset that seeing how much better lad is vs rhp. Also think the fact milw starters know they only need to give their team 5 strong innings allows them to pitch around unfavorable matchups in the lineup as they don’t have to be concerned w pitch counts. For me that helps balance the sp’s out as think lad has to have their starters pitch well and deeper into the game.
Click to expand...

agree with all points here...realisticly the Brewers should be -120 to -130 favs to win this series...if Dodgers steal a game in Milwaukee I think its more of a pick em...the deeper the series goes the more I will lean dodgers...very hard for me to believe in the 1st 3 game that 2/3 go over 7 runs which is what the total should be in the first 3 games...Mil is a hitters park, if first two games go under 7 runs then expect a total of 6 to 5.5 in game 3 by first pitch...My gut tells me the Dodgers will win this series in the end but my numbers point to big value on Brewers and under in the first few games...I am personally treating this like its a best of 3 series, I will re evaluate series after game 3...I should have 5 plays in the first 3 games...under in all 3 games, and Mil in games 1 and 2
 
Game 1

LAD/MIL un 7.5 -112 (dime)

adding to Mil ML play, makes it a a dime at risk total...MIL +147 (nickel)
 
BenchCoach said:
agree with all points here...realisticly the Brewers should be -120 to -130 favs to win this series...if Dodgers steal a game in Milwaukee I think its more of a pick em...the deeper the series goes the more I will lean dodgers...very hard for me to believe in the 1st 3 game that 2/3 go over 7 runs which is what the total should be in the first 3 games...Mil is a hitters park, if first two games go under 7 runs then expect a total of 6 to 5.5 in game 3 by first pitch...My gut tells me the Dodgers will win this series in the end but my numbers point to big value on Brewers and under in the first few games...I am personally treating this like its a best of 3 series, I will re evaluate series after game 3...I should have 5 plays in the first 3 games...under in all 3 games, and Mil in games 1 and 2
Click to expand...

Last 3 years, 1st 3 games of playoff series' the under cashed 62% :shocked: and NL games 67% UNDER

589382e8-767d-4adc-ba87-e80eb209a4cb.png
 
BenchCoach said:
Tim I am a big fan of the best bullpen who is a dog in the playoffs. If you look at the last 8-10 years if you went off this simple trend you would be sittin pretty. I really believe this is the Dodgers year, but I am going with the Brew crew in game one and if they lose I am going with em as a dog again in game two. I will be playing the under in games 1, 2, and 3...I decided this morning to bump everything to a dime and shoot for profit by the end of game 3...both teams can rake, Dodgers better starters, but Mil has the dominate pen...hope this helps...will be adding to game one shortly
Click to expand...
Thanks I was traveling yesterday and didn't have anymore time to put into the handicapping. Unfortunately I didn't play them for the Series as would have been in a nice spot with a G1 win. Nice work on G1, appreciate your thoughts.
 
GM3

MIL/LAD un 7.5 -117 (dime)

going to play this one tonight. Don't like the juice on it but that hook is worth the extra bucks in these tight games. Up $1,300 in the series I am going to lower my wager down to a nickel in game 3. I do like this one tonight. Also lean pretty heavy Dodgers but not worth the price. GL tonight guys
 
Last edited:
consilience said:
You're a beast BC. You have a lean on full game total tonight? Seems your read on the series is solid thus far...
Click to expand...

I would lean over but I don't really have any exact stats to back that up...both bullpens are capable of shutting things down in the late innings...My goal was to take in a dime on this series. I am not giving up but I am going to get pretty selective in the rest of this series.. I will be extremely busy the next 2 days at work so there is a good chance I won't be posting anything in any sports until Friday, but I am off all day Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Sometimes my schedule will give me a window to get some capping done or if I'm not to worn out I will stay up later to cap games....really could see this one going either way, I would lean Dodgers with the being at home and I think they feel their backs are against the wall to a certain extent. The most value may be trying to snag the Dodgers live in play if Milwaukee takes an early lead....should be a great game to watch, gl guys
 
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