My Week 1 Exotics Thread

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Decided to start a thread on what I consider my exotics for College football. A lot of things will fall into this category. My middle attempts , my teasers , and parlays ( yeah right ) , scalps , trapping and speculating. Going to keep separate records of this from my normal set of cfb bets.

I made my first speculation play today with USC -19 for $220 to win $200.

My thinking in regards to this play are as follows. The line was sitting 20.5 , 21 at most shops when Sanchez went down. Folks jumped in and bet the virginia side and the thing fell to -19. Now, today ... Sanchez practiced with the team and there is a chance he may play week1. For this reason , the game has been taken off the board at a lot of shops while they figure out what is going on. It was sitting -19 at CRIS. Ok i bet it..... now if it turns out that Sanchez is not playing the game will be posted again at the -19 or thereabouts that it was prior to being removed. I think from there the line moves up anyway as the vast public will likely be betting the "good" team. Atleast to twenty or so and i will play back on Virginia and hope to side ( falls 19 or 20 ) the thing but probably lose 20 bucks of juice. But if sanchez is playing that line will be posted at the 21 or so it was when he went down with injury and then when the public bets it i might see as much as a +23 on virginia. I would love to go for a middle in the 19-23 range. incredible value. Now, there is a chance that the game moves the other way even though i don't foresee it going that way .... i have been known to be wrong from time to time cough cough. In that case , i will likely be forced to just ride the bet as i am not going to risk being middled or sided. That is my thinking on this game. When the public gets a hold of cfb and starts betting the favorites and starts putting in their teaser cards and parlay cards ...usc will go up.
I was caught with my pants down on this game but i went into the late night discussion thread and a few of the guys brought this situation to my attention in there. Just goes to show the value of reading all the threads around this forum.

Speculation play ( in hopes of middle attempt )

usc -19 ( cris ) 220 to win 200
idaho/arizona over 63 440 to win 400

totals

ncstate/scarolina under 50 440 to win 400
syracuse/northwestern under 58 440 to win 400
 
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Yeah Joe , that would be awesome if the darn thing doesn't move i will be stuck on the side of the bet that i like the least, so there is some danger. Here is an article on sanchez....

I added the emphasis on the bottom......



Even though Mark Sanchez still spent time behind the wheel of a golf cart, there was a little wider smile on his face.

Tuesday, Sanchez got to work with his teammates, throwing them passes without a hint of rust.
"I was getting bored," Sanchez said.
Sanchez worked with receivers facing a dummy defense and in one-on-one drills.
"I felt good today doing a little more," he said. "It's what we expected."
<!--Start Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Player/video/SANCHEZ8608(200).JPG', '', 0, 267, 200, 1, 'Quarterback Mark Sanchez returned to work with the Trojans Tuesday in a limited role.', 'GM', 1219210609000, '', 995, 'Align=Right'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=208 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=6 rowSpan=4>
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</TD><TD width=202>
SANCHEZ8608(200).JPG
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>GM</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>
spacer1.gif
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Quarterback Mark Sanchez returned to work with the Trojans Tuesday in a limited role.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->
Sanchez said he's ahead of schedule, and each day, he pushes himself to do just a little more than the trainers are advising.
In the excitement surrounding his partial return, Sanchez forgot one piece of equipment he hasn't had use for since dislocating his left kneecap. He forgot his helmet.
"I didn't even think about it," he said. "Luckily, someone brought it out to me pretty quick."
Sanchez's day started during a morning walkthrough, when he ran the Trojan huddle, made calls and adjustments and shouted out a cadence.
"He's getting closer, and he's feeling a lot better," coach Pete Carroll said. "He's got to find his way a little bit."
Carroll said Sanchez's work will help prepare the team for his return. Instead of starting fresh with him when he receives full clearance, the junior quarterback is taking small steps now.
"It was good to get back in the team setting, to see guys in the huddle and call plays," Sanchez said. "It's a boost. It's a plus to be up on my feet, moving around this early."
Sanchez's teammates felt the boost, too.
Wide receiver Ronald Johnson and Sanchez hooked up for a long touchdown pass on a deep post against a soft defense.
Johnson said the ball was perfect.
"He's still got it. That one was right on the money," Johnson said. "I can't wait for him to get back."
Sanchez said he feels he needs to be back practicing by Monday or Tuesday of next week in order to play in the season opener at Virginia. "The way things are headed, it's looking good," Sanchez said






Now, whether he starts or not doesn't mean much to me ( or my opinion ) in regards to the game but i think it does mean something in regards to the line movement. Get healthy , son.
 
vegaskyle said:
Now, whether he starts or not doesn't mean much to me ( or my opinion ) in regards to the game but i think it does mean something in regards to the line movement. Get healthy , son.
Click to expand...

i agree with that for sure....matter of fact i'm glad as a bucks fan that he isn't going to be hurt. rather face him than mustain
 
I like your thinking and especially when you'll be able to possibly get a 20 and 21 as the middle def worth the risk.
 
yeah i read those reports, and now a couple of reports are coming out that contradict that... but no matter what is written or if it's bullshit and they're just trying to motivate him with, i think usc would be nuts to not start mustain if sanchez went down, and i just can't see it happening.
 
usc -19
uva +21.5

getting a middle opp at 20 or 21 would be great, and i don't think it is too much to ask for to get the public to bid up usc by 2.5 pts

gl kyle
 
agree with Blue Chip about possibly getting a 21.5. It might be hard to find, but I also think it's quite possible that this thing gets run up.
 
Just my 2 cents... This is not a middle type game IMO. The game will likely finish 6-11 points on either side of the number. Or in other words, USC could win the game outright by as little as 13 or as much as 31 IMO.

Unless Virgina turns out like Appalachian State last year!!!
 
G-Man said:
Just my 2 cents... This is not a middle type game IMO. The game will likely finish 6-11 points on either side of the number. Or in other words, USC could win the game outright by as little as 13 or as much as 31 IMO.

Unless Virgina turns out like Appalachian State last year!!!
Click to expand...


well it certainly doesn't have the value of a lower lined game. Obviously , the larger the line , the less likely it is to fall on or near the number. a middle of 19-21.5 is a positive EV though. A middle of 19-23 would be huge EV.

Certainly not the best middle speculation i have ever made but exposure should be low and the EV should be there for me. Of course it's all mute if the line doesn't move up.

According to vegasinsider there are still some 20's available for this game at leroys and the wynn and most spots have it at 19.5 here in town. vegasinsider is not always right on top of things though, it could be off the board at some of those spots.
 
vegaskyle said:
well it certainly doesn't have the value of a lower lined game. Obviously , the larger the line , the less likely it is to fall on or near the number. a middle of 19-21.5 is a positive EV though. A middle of 19-23 would be huge EV.

Certainly not the best middle speculation i have ever made but exposure should be low and the EV should be there for me. Of course it's all mute if the line doesn't move up.

According to vegasinsider there are still some 20's available for this game at leroys and the wynn and most spots have it at 19.5 here in town. vegasinsider is not always right on top of things though, it could be off the board at some of those spots.
Click to expand...

I agree. If you had a 3-5 line you have a great chance IMO.:shake:
 
still see it at -20 at wynn an caesars right now in vegas. hope it gets back to 21 or so, god will be very happy
 
I saw Tru's picture on wanted signs in several casino cages.........

I am including my totals plays in this thread (other than any that i play for a full unit). Unfortunately for me , I actually lost money last year in my totals bets and i think most of it was due to a flaw in my capping last year which i have addressed so many times that i really dont want to again... but for those that don't already know i think i misevaluated rule changes a little bit.

So to start this year i am playing WAY below a full unit on totals to start with, making exceptions in rare occurrences where the angle is too good to not pass up a full unit play. The full unit plays i will post in my "time to post" threads but my totals plays for under a unit will be posted here and kept track of here. Again , just trying to be as transparent as possible.

I made my first total play of the year ...

NCSTATE/SouthCarolina under 50 -110 440 to win 400
 
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RJ Esq said:
I didn't think they let people like you in places like that.
Click to expand...

heh i dont think they want me in most sports casinos out there after i was told most i could bet a mlb total at harrahs was 200.

an yeah u know god is lookin close at tha uva dog right now
 
Totals

Syracuse/northwestern under 58 -110 440 to win 400

idaho/arizona over 63 -110 440 to win 400


The cuse game will be a play , the idaho game while i like it is also a speculation of sorts. i think the number goes up and if it goes up enough i will try to middle as i hate having a second bet on this game, already with idaho money.... and the correlation does not work with dog to the over. But the number looks low to me when i see idaho scoring in the twenties.
 
BOL on em kyle and this year....

northwestern total looks high but that was one of the teams i was looking at as an OVER play for this year with the no-huddle offense and a very inexperienced secondary... so gonna stay away from that one

GL man--- USC middle was a great idea, didnt know it hit 19 anywhere.
you should get a good 4-5 point window here.
 
Graded plays for tonight , thursday aug 28

ncstate/scarolina under 50 winner ncstate 0 scarolina 34 , total of 34.


The usc line doesnt seem to be moving. what a mistake that is going to be. Idaho/zone total also not moving. Might end up stuck with those.
 
Dollywood said:
I am really liking that NW/SYR under.
Click to expand...


number dropped a ton there the last 48 hours ...best of it whooooo.


Middle Attempt

Lsu -16.5, -18.5 ( cris ) total of 330 to win 300
appy st +25.5 , + 24 ( hilton ) total of 330 to win 300

Had to do it , unfortunately so did other people i work with and as a result , didnt get as much down on this as i should or could have. Hard to believe there will be a better middle opportunity this year. Several threads regarding the mistake that CRIS released last night on this game. two different bets in on this one , it's a long story but you see the value.


i am going to have to eat my two speculation bets and hope they win. While i was on the right side of a lot of moves this week. neither the idaho/zona total nor the usc line moved in my favor. This leaves me with two worthless bets , and in the case of the total a bad number to boot. No way to get off of these right now as i am not willing ot bet -19 and take +20 ...would rather just risk the bet. Strange situation where i actually kind of prefer the virginia side of the game a little but am holding a ticket for the other guys.

That is a risk in speculation but atleast i kind of like the over in the zona game anyway.


gl today folks
 
This will be the last time that i use two separate threads to record my action. too damn confusing and too much maintenance. All action from this thread has now been graded.

Speculations/middleattempts ( 1-1 , +$170 )
usc -19 , a failed speculation was a winner +$200
lsu middle attempt from post #30 was a net $30 loser

Totals ( 3-0 ) +3.00 units

ncstate/scarolina under 50 was a winner
syracuse/northwestern under 58 was a winner
idaho/arizona over 63 was a winner

The idaho/arizona game was also sort of a speculation , though i liked the over but since it ended up being played for a full totals unit and had an opinion , i graded it there. could easily be graded in the other section but this is easier for me.


Exotics thread went great ... too bad i have had my arse kicked so far on full unit plays.


This thread will be linked in my time to post thread and all action will be confined to those threads from this point forward. Thought this would unclutter my normal thread but it turns out its just more of a pain in my arse.
 
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