Picking up with the rest of the games that I was looking at...
Albany is a team to watch this year, but Marshall is capable of blowing them out. As good as Poffenbarger is and as good as their DL looked last week, I would not think they do well here and Marshall typically comes out to start the season strong. With that said, Albany is a team that has lost to FBS 10-69 at Baylor last year (+41.5) and at Cuse 24-62 (+22). I don't think it will be that bad.
I have never watched St Thomas play. Not sure I will today, but they are one hell of a story jumping from Dlll to the Pioneer League where they will likely keep winning conference titles yet be ineligible to actually be the playoff representative. They got something going on there for sure.
I would want to take Fordham on a bounce back. Don't like CJ Montes at QB, that worries me as he is probably the only way they don't cover a big number at home hosting Wagner. Week zero went poorly for Fordham at Albany, but this is a different situation and they should really win handily - Wagner routinely gets blown out and the team is once again weak. This line will in the 30s I'm sure. Definitely a get right game - I hope that they lean more on the run game and their advantage at OL vs Wagner run D here rather than force Montes to be something he is not at QB. Considering who they lost at QB, it is square peg round hole if they think Montes can run an offense like that.
Duck informed us of the hazing scandal at San Diego. Cal Poly was bad last year although offensively as we were also told by Jimmymo super recruit Sam Huard has transfered here and has been named starter. I'm not normally a bet against the team with players out kind of person, but this sounds pretty significant and if we can get the best of the opening line atleast that is something to shoot for.
I think I will keep an eye out for a high number on Alcorn at USM. There is going to be a lot of passion in that game I feel like and could be worth watching.
Central Arkansas is supposed to be good this year after back-to-back 5-6 seasons. I definitely have them circled to play at NDSU week 3. At Oklahoma State would not seem to be the ideal spot to play them .... but, and I honestly do not know much about OSU here, but how good is Alan Bowman these days? Phil's book rates their QB group 11, RB 7, WR 10, OL 12 in the Big Xll - those are unfamiliar group ranking for OSU offensively so it would appear they are down on that side of the ball. OSU doesn't perform the best in these type games. Did win 58-44 in a noncover vs Cen Mich last year and smoked a bad Ark Pine Bluff team. 2021 they only beat Mizzou St 23-16 laying 38 in the opener. 2020 only beat Tulsa 16-7 laying 23.5 in that opener. On the flip side, UCA has not played well when facing FBS....such as losing by 56 at Ole Miss last year or losing by 19 to Ark St two years ago in the opener and 23 pts the year prior. They also lost by 28 to playoff team EKU last season. It still has my interest assuming the line is like 31 or something.
Chattanooga beat North Alabama by 27 last year. I liked how North Alabama got after it on D last week, but I did not like their offense or QBs much at all. QB is also the question for Chattanooga, they are going with a never played before transfer from UCLA. I hear he held on some place kicks or something, that is the extent of his PT at UCLA. The Mercer game week 0 vs N Ala left a lot of people confused, why did Mercer's O struggle, why did they not try and take advantage of their offensive strengths vs N Ala - or is N Ala's D going to be solid this year? Probably like an Under here depending as Chatt's D is usually good and should be again while N Ala gets to face this older, but really inexperienced QB and their D handled or made the Mercer pass O and WRs last week which would've been a much tougher challenge than this.
MVFC vs Pioneer league special? Well it's just Murray State taking on Presbyterian - line will likely be high anyway. I don't see myself laying a ton of points with MVFC newcoming Murray St do I?
Austin Peay at Southern Illinois should be one of the best games of the day. I like what both offenses have while both defenses have significant losses. Offensive game could be in the cards. Austin Peay plays super fast on O which is great for them if it is working, bad for their D if it sputters. Southern Illinois has a good QB as well and good cast overall on O. I really am not sure who will come out on top as both teams look pretty good at least offensively and from a coaching standpoint. Should be good one.
Montana State has the game vs South Dakota State on deck when they play Utah Tech today. Shouldn't matter
Incarnate Word at UTEP has been a topic of conversation all summer. Definitely want to see how UIW looks, although I still think UTEP wins. Question is what will the number be? Assuming UIW will be favored now, which I was thinking UTEP would be over the summer. Disappointing game from UTEP last week makes this one really important as they go on back-to-back road trips vs P5 teams after today and UIW's recent success no doubt will have UTEP's full attention. Worry about the speed and scheme that UIW will imploy, but then on the other side, UTEP should be able to do what they want on offense as well. Overall, I don't think this reload mirrors what UIW had in 2021 or 2022. Calzada's arm talent playing at this level is an x factor. He's not Lindsey Scott or Cameron Ward who were both really good dual threats - it is going to be different in how the O executes. I'm not on the UIW bandwagon, but many people who follow FCS are still.
I like New Mexico State in a bounce back. I did not see the UMass game, but it sounds like NM ST did not look good, slow. Fortunately for them they play a fairly bad FCS team in Western Illinois, who I assume, UMass would also beat this year. NM State will not play a home game after today until October 4th. Off the disappointment of starting the season with a loss last week, the urgency of getting a win at home, their offensive style vs a poor D like Western Illinois should all lead to a blowout. I'm assuming the line to be about 21/24 but would lay more.
Cody Hawkins (Dan's son) debuts as OC for Idaho State tonight. Rough first game at San Diego State. SD St could name their score, but in typical SD St fashion will probably win a 34-3 noncovering game (last year was 38-7 as 34.5 fav). Not the best large favorite these Aztecs and they do have UCLA on deck, but have to think it is SD State or nothing here, there is nothing to like about Idaho State. I'd guess number is about same as last year, 35-ish and that is a 10:30 start so I'll probably have to lay it to have some action.
