Monday Night Selection Falcons-Saints

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I think after looking at this game that the Falcons is the selection.

I think this line is way off and is partially set with the fact that New Orleans is a fast, sleek, athletic, team with star player potential.

When people think of New Orleans they think of last years cinderella team and the beating they gave Dallas last year on national Tv and perhaps Seattle this year.

Saints are laying -3.5 and they are very one dimensional team. I give an edge to defence to the Falcons and an edge to offence for the Saints.

A lot of what the Saints did was with REggie BUSH. ALthough he was not very succesfull, his presence in there made the D's adjust and play the perimeters and be weary of blitzing cause a screen pass could kill them.

Falcons if they had a decent QB, with a decent offence would be in first place no doubt about that. This is a team that has just not scored a lot of points but had chances for sure.

Teams that play New Orleans the first time struggle with them usually especially if they cannot handle all the motion and gadget plays by them. Some teams cannot keep BUSH off the edge and they get beaten. I think that the Saints are easy to figure out as they are a One man show in COLSTON, stop him and stop HENDERSON from the 2 deep bombs BREES will throw and you stop their Offence.

I think with no threat of really running that well, it will be easy to pressure BREES and cover COLSTON.

Also Saints have the worst DB in the league in Jason DAVID, Falcons will have big play opportunities vs this guy, every other teams #1 wideout has had a 100 yard game and long td's like over 50 yards. I hope Roddy WHITE can beat this guy deep. Saints are weak vs the Pass, anyone remember what Reggie Wayne did to them in the first week, Andre Johnson, Joey Galloway, Tory HOLT all abused DAVID, beating him for long Td's.

When I look at the game I see the following:

ATL is playing at home- advantage ATL
ATL has the better D- Advantage ATL
Saints has better O- Advantage SAINTS
ATL run ball better- Advantage ATL


I think the Saints are favored for their potential to explode on O, which they have not done consistently this year. I really think the loss of BUSH and the loss last week will hurt them. They remind me of CHICAGO and pHILLY teams that always have a must win game every week and then fall flat on their face. There will be plenty of support for the Saints because the public is in love with BREES and COLSTON.

Atl should get a win in these last 3 games, and this is as good a week to do it, in my opinion as it is a revenge game vs a team that you already outplayed and is missing their best offensive weapon.

Bottom line- I cannot take a one dimensional team, with a bad pass D with the worst DB in the NFL starting for you. Anyone who does not think REDMAN can pass well, look at Luke MCKNOWN he ripped them apart, this pass D has problems, it is very ver bad vs the pass.


Taking ATL +3.5 and also a unit on the Moneyline
 
He did last week with the BUCS,


Making his first start for Tampa Bay and fifth of his career, McCown completed his first 15 passes and wound up 29-of-37 for 313 yards and two touchdowns.
The winning score was a quick 4-yard pass to Jerramy Stevens, who had to outleap Jason Craft to make the catch. "We tried to not play defensive with a young quarterback playing in his first game in a long time. Luke McCown responded," Gruden said. "For us to win this game, we knew we would have to score some points. The only way we were going to do it was by throwing it."

<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD width="8%"></TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Tampa Bay</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> L. McCown</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>313</TD><TD>78.4</TD><TD>8.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> New Orleans</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> D. Brees</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>179</TD><TD>73.9</TD><TD>7.8</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
When I look at this Saints team closer, that is supposed to be very offensive and explosive I just do not see it this year.

Vs Indy scored 10 points
VS Tampa scored 14 points
vs Tennese scored 14 points
Vs Carolina scored 13 points
vs Seattle scored 28 points, This was a good offensive game
vs Atlanta scored 22 points at home, including a late Td
vs Sanfran scored 31 points, but SanFran does not hold the ball and that is what most teams get on San Fran

Vs Jaxonville scored 41 points
Quinn Gray, starting his second game for injured David Garrard (ankle), opened well, but his performance dipped after he sprained his left ankle on a hit by Will Smith early in the second quarter. He finished 20-for-33 for 354 yards and two touchdowns, but was intercepted three times. Also this is a team that is a bad matchup for the jags because they cannot stop spread attacks. The way to beat JAX is to spread them out, INDY can do it, they have only one DB MATHIS, 2nd DB Brian WILLIAMS is horrific, not much better than Jason DAVID. This point total was due to 3 int's and also BREES spreading them and hitting them deep.
Also JAX just won in Tampa the week before and basically could not show up 2 weeks in a row for this game. Anyone who thinks the Saints can score 41 on the Jags again please let me know.

Vs RAMS they scored 29 points

vs Houston they scored 10 points

vs Carolina they scored 31 points vs a David Carr led team, inept O

vs Tampa they scored 23 points, one was a INT return td- 16 by the O


This would suggest to me that basically New Orleans is actually pretty pedestrian on OFFENCE. I can make that comment because of this fact.

Playoff teams- They scored 10 on Indy, Tennesee 14, 41 on JAX, 14 on Tampa Bay and 16 in the last meeting by the O, and 10 vs Houston. This tells me that this team is able to score vs the weaker teams, 49'ers, carolina, but not vs good competition.

So now we basically know that the Saints are not that good on O, and on D, and that is why they are 5-7, and have lost games they have no business losing.
 
When i look at Atlanta I see a lot of promise on O. LEFTWHICH is just simply not an NFL QB, his TOR- Time of Release is the longest in the league, he has a windup that is awkward and is not quick. He gets a lot of balls knocked out from his hands, because he brings the ball up high and to the outside and then throws it. He is not an NFL QB, he is too slow, takes too long to make his reads.

Harrington is Harrington, bad luck, good guy nice guy, but cannot get it done consistently. This O is actually good, with CRUMPLER, WHite, Horn, NORWOOD. One thing I cannot understand all year with ATL and this may explain a lot of thier offensive ineptitude.
"Why do the run DUNN inside for useless 2 yard runs" Should they not run him to the outside and use a power back up the middle" It seems like they waste one down out of every 3 on useless DUNN runs.

REDMAN was a great college QB, has a quick release which is good and is smart from my take on him.
 
Lastly I think that from a standpoint of this game mentally that a lot of people are going to feel assured taking the Saints and stay away from the Falcons.
WHY- "Its called UNDERDOG ANXIETY SYNDROME"

Public Bettor- Oh I am taking New Orleans, ATL is terrible, they cannot score, did u see that bit on ESPN they are starting some guy SPIDERMAN or METHODMAN? Yeah I am taking SAINTS BIg, they have BREES and the offence to win the game. No one wants to back the Falcons because of the possibility of a blowout or a bad performance. People would rather feel comfortable taking the Saints and having their O on thier sides and BREES and COLSTON. It comes down to this a smart bettor who bets smartly will take the Falcons and people that don't really look into the game will take the Saints. The Saints will be the popular pick, but the smart money is ATL.

The Key to taking a DOG is to WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT: In this game I think the key is that the FALCONS are not intimidated by the SAINTS, they should have won the 1st meeting and know they are better than them. Once you have a DOG believing they can win, it is like a PIT BULL it bites you and locks its jaws in place and does not let go.

When I take a dog, I like to bet on a team that has lost games and is used to losing. I think that the Saints have no problem losing this year and may as well add one more loss to their record as they had playoff aspirations and now they are playing the string out. This hopefully will be the first game of the uninspired play.
 
yeah good arguments, but the fact saints need this for any post season hope...ill lay off or tread lightly
 
defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, a longtime friend of Hashmarks, knows how important it is to apply pressure to Drew Brees tonight. The Saints may have lost running back Reggie Bush for the season, but they still have some weapons at wide receiver.
In 2004, I remember greeting Zimmer on the tarmac at Love Field. He had just been offered the head coaching job at Nebraska, and he was giving it serious consideration. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones ended up increasing Zimmer's salary to $1 million, and he stayed.
Now he's overseeing a defense that has been decent against the pass, but has struggled against the run. Even though the Falcons are 3-9, they've made progress on the defensive side of the ball.
Believe it or not, the Falcons are among the league leaders when it comes to getting off the field on third down. That stat usually translates to wins, but not in their case.
 
Sounds good Sammy....I am also leaning toward the home doggie too....I think the MN home dog has hit more then not.....GLT:smiley_acbe:
 
Haha, oh yeah, this whole time i'm thinking of josh mccown. i got tickets to that saints/bucs game last second and the seats were horrible, i had no money on the game, and i was extremely busy the week before at work, so i didn't pay attention to who was replacing garcia.
 
Thanks for taking the time to bring up all this information Sammy, it was very informative.

Gl on your pick tonight :cheers:
 
I was thinking everything points to Over.

The Saints lose the ability to produce long clock killing drives without Bush. The Saints will need to throw to win and the Falcons will as well.

Neither team has a defense that leads you to think they will hold other team under 20.

I actually liked the Saints but this suddenly seems like a pickem.
 
Neither team has a defense that leads you to think they will hold other team under 20.

Falcons D is better against the pass, so w/out Bush (running, or as a pass target for Brees) the suprise in this game could very well be the performance ATL's D puts on.

Its an obvious statement, but when Dogs get up they do something unexpected. The basis is there on both sides of the ball for ATL for the unexpected to be seen.
 
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