Monday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Once they come out, probably hitting:
KC FF RL
PIT FF RL
TB -131
BAL/NYM o8.5 -102
BAL +113 Yes I know it's Trevor Rogers
Baltimore 14-6 as a dog this season. Mets dicked around with the Fish this weekend. Entirely different team comes in and should smash.
KC FF RL
PIT FF RL
TB -131
BAL/NYM o8.5 -102
BAL +113 Yes I know it's Trevor Rogers
Baltimore 14-6 as a dog this season. Mets dicked around with the Fish this weekend. Entirely different team comes in and should smash.
Last edited:
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Sucks I have to prob get off my fade Rogers train, he has actually posted lights out numbers vs Mets the whole time he pitched for fish, pretty sure they have a ops below .600 vs him!! Guess I’ll root for him to look great so I can fade his ass again next start w better number! Lol
Not sure bout Tampa. I’m skeptical of my guy Taj last 2 starts then getting pushed back a day, maybe it nothing, maybe he having some tightness they not talking bout? Not sure if I’m willing to pay to find out?
Cant argue kc hell I might even bet a fav here!!
Dunno who pitching for Texas?
Dont love this card overall.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That crazy I’ve always thought of that place as an under park. Of course they had guys like Alconteta, Lopez, and other nasty pitchers keeping scores down! lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
@peelpub94 why just Ff in kc? Much better pen and I trust them to win game even more than leading after 5,, I think they will be up but if they not I’d like the other 4 innings against laa pen. If they ahead certainly not worried they gonna blow it. I’d prob look at laa ff tf un Ff if I like what I see wit Lugo.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
LAA pen is 2nd best in MLB since the ASB, think KC is something like 26th. Saw that stat the other day and was shocked considering how much LAA pen probably has to pitch every game.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
reaggravated the sprained ankle
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Just didn't want to full game pay ML price, or RL price for the full game, think they'll be up at least 1 run by bottom 5, and be done with it. But now that the price is out, FF RL -146, is a little rich. May just go full game RL +105.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Astros just seem to simply own the Sox, just swept them at Fenway I think. Probably changes tonight.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
What we basing as 2nd best? I can’t really find the entire pen stats since asb but I’m looking at their relievers and I don’t see a lot that scares me, they also traded 2 of their better relievers who’s stats from asb till deadline I assume are being counted. I don’t see many guys with numbers that I think “damn”, of course those all season so maybe some of them been better, I watched few their games vs A’s week or 2 back and I def didn’t think “wow this pen tough”. Just trying to figure out what we basing it off, what site you get that from?
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Love that Baltimore play
2daBank
Voice of Reason
It so tough for me to love the idea of backing one my favorite pitchers to fade but for whatever reason Rogers has fantastic numbers vs muts, he has pretty dominant numbers at citi field but he wasn’t as good his last few, so hard for me to back this guy!
Dunno what to think of Peterson, his record is obviously fantastic but his k’s per 9 has fallen off a cliff, his swinging strike way down as you would expect w the k’s so far down. Results been good last 3 but not against great offenses and the k/bb looks ugly.
Kinda leaning over, Mets obp been the best in baseball the last week, I just can’t believe Rogers won’t put ppl on. Peterson walking so many you know that gonna lead to a few crooked numbers vs o’s. I feel like both teams scoring 4+ here isn’t a huge ask.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
I've watched a bunch of Peterson's starts, which the Mets seem to win all the time... they've won 9 out of his last 10 starts. He hardly gives up runs but always has baserunners... thinking his luck runs out here a bit maybe. His xERA is 5.31!! Regular ERA is 3.04.. Without looking, he has to be the luckiest, overperforming pitcher in the MLB right now.
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Going with NRFI Seattle/Dodgers -120
On the fence with Mets NRFi
On the fence with Mets NRFi
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I can’t imagine he shut o’s down giving them bunch of free passes, I think he been walking more guys than Rogers lately! Between these 2 pitchers there potential for 6+ walks, w these offenses those should turn into runs!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Exactly. Jumped on the over last night immediately which has only gone up in price, 20 cents.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I really don’t understand why Houston taking enough money pushing line their way? Don’t get me wrong i like stros but that lineup is super thin right now w bregman now hurt also. Houck been consistently good all year, has a strong history vs stros hitters in limited at bats, only allowed 1 run over 6 innings few weeks back and he facing a watered down version of them right now. Red Sox have hit Kikuchi hard, he been better this year but he still a risk to give up a big inning from time to time. I know Stros are super hot but w way Seattle tail spinning now going to lad, rangers have played themselves out the race, this game way bigger for Sox and think they have a clear pitching edge, makes no sense to me Stros up to damn near -150! That is redic imo. So is Red Sox Ff tt ov 1.5 vs Kikuchi, if they don’t score 2+ off him they can have my money, same with Red Sox ml, just no way that price a accurate representation of Sox chances to win here. I’m playing the Ff tt over and Sox ml
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Like your analysis Bank. Make a good statement for Boston
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I can’t deal w the price on kc but i do think lugo will bounce Back from a few bad starts, he has a 1.17 era in 3 stars vs laa, been good at home, it been 6 straight games since las scored more than 3, He should zip thru 5 innings without much damage. Laa ff tt un 1.5 only -105
2daBank
Voice of Reason
This one here feels like a total steal, I’m actually baffled by the number, cws pitcher Jonathan Cannon out total is 16.5 -125 to the over, go look at this kids starts and tell be this number shouldn’t be at least a juiced 17.5 if not 18.5! He has hit this number in 9 his last 10 starts I believe, he has went 6+ in 8 of the 10! The giants offense certainly not anything to fear him getting ran early! His road numbers are much worse but those came from early in the season and this park is far from a deterrent, shouldn’t have any problems going 6+ innings. This line is just wrong unless they have decided to start pulling him early without telling anyone.
This line is crazy Cannon ov 16.5 outs -125 is a banger!
This line is crazy Cannon ov 16.5 outs -125 is a banger!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
I like this find - I will play devils advocate and say Cannon loves his sinker, it's average at best, and Chapman, Wade, Conforto all lefties hit the sinker well. Lefties are slugging .507 against Cannon, and away he's 5.05/1.54. I think if can get the cutter/sweep/change working effectively he can sneak out a few tricky innings. We all know SF is bottom 3 in park factors, but the triple plays well here.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Thanks buddy, it baseball so they might be down 7-0 after a inning! I just really can’t find anything that justified the original price let alone the move up! Yes Stros are hot but that doesn’t really mean dick, not like Sox been playing poorly, they clearly need the game more, and what I assume be a difficult series they realky need to take advantage of im assuming be the only one they have a significant starting pitcher edge. Not that Kikuchi isn’t talented, he could punch out 15 but he isn’t nearly as consistent as Houck and Sox havnt shown much trouble hitting him.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
The home/road is totally meaningless to me, he happened to have 2 road starts where he got killed and didn’t even make it 3 innings. 7 sample start throws that all out of whack, the other 5 road starts he went 6+ in all of them. Lefties do have a high slug off him, chapmen not a lefty tho, giants have like 2 lefties who worry me, plus in this park let them hit it hard, on ground in a dp, in air it a fly out. Giants have a team ops of .685 on the year vs rhp, not exactly striking fear. Im not even suggesting he gonna shut them down, he prob give up at least 2-3 runs, cws has routinely let him pitch 6 while giving up 4 runs. Not like they have a better answer taking him out early for the pen or any incentive to not let him pitch thru some trouble, long as he doesn’t get just killed and can’t get out a inning I suspect he goes his typical 6+. I Hear what you saying the points sound and be more valid if I was looking to back cws but I just don’t think they have much effect on him throwing at least 5.2 innings. Imo only way that happens he just can’t get out a inning and between a not real scary lineup and the sinker getting him a timely dp I don’t think it real likely they hit around on him.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Wanna take him to hit a bomb but Kikuchi prob walk him 3x if I do, him or Yoshido gonna yank one over that short porch!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
LAD TT o4.5 +118. Brian Woo isn't Castillo, Gilbert or Kirby.
Dodgers at home vs righties, this was all without Betts too. Woo has had some troubles on the road with average to good line ups, but hasn't faced a team that goes Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Teoscar 1-4. I'll pay to see him and the pen hold them under 5 especially at + money.
Dodgers at home vs righties, this was all without Betts too. Woo has had some troubles on the road with average to good line ups, but hasn't faced a team that goes Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Teoscar 1-4. I'll pay to see him and the pen hold them under 5 especially at + money.
Looks juicy!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Like this bet even more with this Houston line up lol.. I bet Boston line drops to +110 by close.
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Grabbed them at Ceasars at +122
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Kyle Harrison o4.5 strikeouts -155 at MGM. Bout the highest juice I'll pay. White Sox have gone over this number 8 out of last 10 against Lefties averaging 6.7 strike outs. Harrison just struck out 6 and 11 at home vs Rockies and Braves. Don't think the White Sox line up is much better.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Woo throws a crazy high amount of fastballs doesn’t he? That always makes me nervous bout him, doesn’t matter even if a really good fastball against dudes like these, they know it coming they will hit it. I do think it has some good late life to it but they will figure it out by 2nd time around.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Exactly.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I played him vs Braves, of course I been playing pretty much any pitcher not on laa k’s vs Braves. Cws lineup obviously not better but I dunno if they swing and miss like Braves lately? That said I was close on him had juice been a little lower I’d prob have played also. Realky just came down to I felt stronger bout cannon outs and he was cheaper but I think he prob gets to at least 5.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Just something I caught on MLB Network this weekend so I'm sure it's ERA but it's still startling to me since I always think of them as having one of the worst pens in baseball and a month of a 2.6 or so ERA is something I have to take pause about.
Last edited:
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Oh yes for sure, I always think of them having one the worst pens also so I tried djggung around but I couldn’t find team pen stats just from asb. I did notice they were probably counting the stats of the really good closer and few other pen guys that got traded. I did see they had several guys with super high era+ numbers so maybe they better than I typically give them credit for, no chance I think they 2nd but they might not be pushovers either. While I was trying to figure shit out I did happen to see since middle of June cle pen who was considered one best in lesgue was way down around 20rh! But only again no clue how they being ranked, simply off era or any number of 100 different ways to measure pitchers.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I did see as of last week only three pens have a WAR of 5+...CIN, MIA, CLE
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I really dunno how I feel bout war? Im sure it’s great for contract negotiations but any stat that tells me some prick striking out w guy on 3rd less than 2 outs in a one run game but then fime up hits a bomb down 4 earned more war than the guy who chokes up and gets the run home annoys me! For as much a better capper lot of analytics have made me I think some my best worst is fading lot their ideals! Cause some of it is flat out stupid, not sure these mfers knows what it takes to win a game so no clue who crowned them to put a number on it?!???
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Apparently his fastball comes from the lowest arm angle in MLB and appears to rise which is why he's so successful with it. His xERA is stupidly low.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Stats and math aren’t the problem. The problem are casual fans who don’t understand or don’t care to understand what advanced stats are. It’s not going away. Teams spend millions and millions on this stuff, and it’s partly how teams like the Rays stay competitive.
The problem with baseball is that the younger generations have a billion more distractions and interests than we had available to us when we were kids in the 70s, 80s, etc.
It just doesn’t matter as much anymore. After our generation moves on, cable tv deals disappear, baseball will have some major decisions to make. I would not be surprised to see the league downsize.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Kids MLB debut apparently
